Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, S&P 500 rallies despite Middle East back and forth, oil lower

ASX 200 futures are up 25 pts (+0.29%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks higher on Middle East conflict showing possible signs of de-escalation

• US-Iran ceasefire messaging one-sided and Tehran pushing back explicitly

• WTI Crude down 1.1%, gold stronger

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Thu 26 Mar 26, 8:28am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,592	+0.54%
Dow Jones	46,429	+0.66%
NASDAQ Comp	21,930	+0.77%
Russell 2000	2,536	+1.23%
Country Indices
Canada	32,383	+1.38%
China	3,932	+1.30%
Germany	22,957	+1.41%
Hong Kong	25,336	+1.09%
India	75,273	+1.63%
Japan	53,750	+2.87%
United Kingdom	10,107	+1.42%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,504.38	+0.70%
Copper	5.49	+1.22%
WTI Oil	91.29	-1.13%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.6949	+0.02%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	71,000	+1.23%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,116	+0.75%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.328	-1.46%
VIX	25.33	-6.01%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 higher, off best levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks all higher on possible signs of de-escalation of Iran war

• Back and forth between Washington and Tehran sending mixed signals, market more 'hopeful' than anything concrete

• Trump-Xi summit confirmed for May; White House suggesting the war could end by then

• US retail investors sold $20.6m in stocks on Monday, marking first net selling since Nov 2023 (BBG)

• Strategists say spike in loan defaults may force out stress from the $3T private credit sector, enabling a "healthy reset" (CNBC)

• Investors snap up over $18B debt tied to Electronic Arts' $55B acquisition, reflecting strong risk appetite (FT)

• Companies speeding up debt raising plans amid market volatility and political uncertainty (FT)

• Treasury yields have logged biggest monthly rise since Oct-2024 amid Middle East turmoil (FT)

• Tumbling gold prices challenge its "haven" status; analysts expect a rebound despite ongoing Iran war impacts (FT)

• China state media talks up token usage, driving rally in China AI stocks (BBG)

ENERGY

• Iran says foreign ships not involved in war allowed to transit Strait of Hormuz (FT)

• For Western powers, failed efforts to secure Red Sea shipping signal greater challenges for the Strait of Hormuz (RT)

• UK proposes hosting an international summit to create a plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz (GN)

• Record-high Middle East crude prices could cascade to US and elsewhere if peace talks do not lead to resolution soon (MSN)

• High oil and gas prices may persist beyond Trump's Iran conflict, despite promises of quick relief (NYT)

• Trump administration preparing to issue waiver expanding availability of higher ethanol E15 gasoline (BBG)

• Oil executives say scale of Middle East supply disruption biggest they've seen (RT)

• Shell CEO warns Europe faces fuel shortages as soon as April due to Middle East conflict and Hormuz disruption (TLG)

• Asian nations consider Covid-style measures like remote work to manage fuel shortages (RT)

• Oil and gas firms, including Equinor and a Shell-backed group, urge EU to lift Arctic drilling ban (FT)

IRAN

• Iran has no intention to hold talks with U.S; foreign minister says Trump proposal to end war being reviewed (CNBC)

• Tehran denies peace talks progress, asserts US is negotiating only with itself (RT)

• Iranian officials distrust Trump, view peace talks as another trick (AXS); prefer engaging with VP Vance (CNN)

• Iran and Israel launch fresh airstrikes; Iran continues attacks on Gulf states after US peace proposal (RT)

• Trump claims Iran offered "present" relating to oil and gas, optimistic about negotiations (BBG)

• US to deploy thousands of paratroopers from 82nd Airborne to Middle East (WP)

• Gulf states consider joining US-Israeli war on Iran if critical infrastructure is attacked (BBG)

• China Foreign Minister urged Iranian counterpart to negotiate end to war as soon as possible (BBG)

STOCKS

• SpaceX aims to file IPO prospectus this week or next, could raise over $75B (TIN)

• OpenAI nears deal to raise ~$10B from MGX, Coatue, Thrive, taking latest funding round to ~$120B (BBG)

• Microsoft and Nvidia collaborate to accelerate nuclear power plant construction (AXS)

• Apple testing standalone Siri app and give it AI chatbot-like experience (BBG)

• Jury in New Mexico says Meta must pay $375M for endangering children online (WP)

• Meta grants stock options to key leaders to retain talent amid intensifying AI pressure (CNBC)

• Chinese authorities restrict two Manus co-founders from leaving, increasing scrutiny on Meta's $2B acquisition (FT)

• Arm Holdings to sell its own chips, aiming for $15B in annual revenue within five years; signs up Meta as first customer (BBG )

• SK Hynix aiming to list in US this year, seeks to raise $10B (BBG)

• Federal judge finds Pentagon's treatment of Anthropic "troubling," as court urged to pause supply chain risk designation (AXS)

• Anduril and Palantir working to develop software for Golden Dome missile shield programme (RT)

• Merck nearing $6B deal to acquire Terns Pharma, boosting pipeline amid Keytruda patent expiration (FT)

• Blackstone plans to invest $15B in Japan, targeting data centres, logistics facilities and hotels (NKK)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Prosecutor concedes no evidence of misconduct by Fed chair Powell, undermining Trump's "criminality" claims on renovations (WP)

• Fed Governor Barr wants evidence inflation falling sustainably before considering further rate cuts (BBG)

• Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says more progress on inflation needed for rate cuts to be realistic (RT)

• ECB President Lagarde states central bank may raise interest rates in April if Iran war inflation escalates (FT)

• BOJ January meeting minutes showed board members biding time on next rate hike (RT)

• RBNZ chief economist Conway says assessment of second-round inflation effects will determine rate hikes (BBG)

ECONOMY

• Australian inflation remained elevated prior to Middle East conflict (BBG)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Thu 26 Mar: Ipd Group (IPG) – $0.068, Salter Brothers Emerging Companies (SB2) – $0.02, Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) – $0.025

• Fri 27 Mar: Vita Life Sciences (VLS) – $0.095

• Mon 30 Mar: Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) – $0.042, Centuria Office REIT (COF) – $0.025, Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW) – $0.064, Dexus Convenience Retail REIT (DXC) – $0.052, Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) – $0.042, DPM Metals (DPM) – $0.042, EVZ (EVZ) – $0.005, Garda Property Group (GDF) – $0.022, Rural Funds Group (RFF) – $0.029, Sequoia Financial Group (SEQ) – $0.01, Verbrec (VBC) – $0.001, Wiseway Group (WWG) – $0.006

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: AGL Energy (AGL), Alcoa Corp (AAI), Ariadne Australia (ARA), BHP Group (BHP), Channel Infrastructure NZ (CHI), Credit Corp Group (CCP), Cue Energy Resources (CUE), Cuscal (CCL), EQT Holdings (EQT), GQG Partners (GQG), Helia Group (HLI), Humm Group (HUM), IDP Education (IEL), Imdex (IMD), Ingenia Communities Group (INA), Kip McGrath Education Centres (KME), LGI (LGI), Liberty Financial Group (LFG), Lovisa Holdings (LOV), Netwealth Group (NWL), Newmont Corp (NEM), Northern Star Resources (NST), Capral (CAA), Peet (PPC), Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR), Ramsay Health Care (RHC), Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ), The Lottery Corp (TLC), Vulcan Steel (VSL), WT Financial Group (WTL)

• Earnings: Soul Patts (SOL)

• IPOs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

• 10:20 am: USA President Trump Speaks

• 11:30 pm: USA Unemployment Claims