Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 hits the 200-day, Commodity prices smashed

ASX 200 futures are down 5 pts (-0.05%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

In a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower, but off worst levels (S&P 500 down 0.28% vs. low of -1.01%)

• S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all hit their 200-day moving averages, with price action signaling some degree of support around these key levels

• Heavy selling across the commodity complex, with gold down ~3.5% (dipped as much as 6.5%)

• Yes, the market is definitely down 5 pts today. Apologies for the error yesterday and thank you for all your messages.

Let's dive in.

Overnight Summary

Fri 20 Mar 26, 8:22am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Major Indices
S&P 500	6,606	-0.27%
Dow Jones	46,021	-0.44%
NASDAQ Comp	22,091	-0.28%
Russell 2000	2,495	+0.65%
Country Indices
Canada	31,855	-1.42%
China	4,007	-1.39%
Germany	22,840	-2.82%
Hong Kong	25,501	-2.02%
India	74,207	-3.26%
Japan	53,373	-3.38%
United Kingdom	10,064	-2.35%

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities (USD)
Gold	4,650.0	-3.52%
Copper	5.48	-1.32%
WTI Oil	95.2	-1.16%
Currency
AUD/USD	0.709	+0.04%
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin (USD)	70,579	-1.02%
Ethereum (AUD)	3,033	-1.94%
Miscellaneous
US 10 Yr T-bond	4.281	+0.52%
VIX	24.06	-4.11%

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 lower, off worst levels (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks mostly lower but off worst levels, S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit the key 200-day moving average (closed below if you use SMA, above if you use EMA)

• Heavy selling across the commodity space, with gold down ~3.3% to the lowest since mid-Jan, silver down ~3.3% (up from session low of -13%), aluminium down ~5% (hit intraday low of -8.2%) and more

• Commodity upheaval reflects a broad range of factors including growing rate hike expectations, rising real yields, crowded longs unwinding, pricing in a weaker global demand and strong US dollar environment, and forced selling by institutional participants to raise liquidity

• Overall, a rather choppy session, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 finding some support around the 200-day, despite the lack of capitulation, depressed sentiment and rebased positioning readings may offer some contrarian support

• Markets remain highly sensitive to any hints of a potential off-ramp, with today’s partial recovery likely driven by Netanyahu’s comments on helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz

• Investment banks offering clients options to short private-credit space (BBG)

• UK 10-year yield near highest since 2008 as market expectations flip from cuts to rate hikes (FT)

• BofA says consumer stocks are best current buying opportunity amid energy surge (BBG)

• Treasuries sell off as Fed signals next rate cut hinges on further progress on inflation (BBG)

ENERGY

• US mulls lifting oil sanctions on Iran despite ongoing war against Tehran (WP)

• Trump officials rule out oil export ban in meeting with industry execs (POL)

• Energy traders and analysts call strike on Qatari LNG facility a nightmare scenario, see higher prices through 2027 and regional shortages, UK LNG prices surge ~25% (FT)

• Russia considering ban on certain fuel exports if domestic prices surge, an energy ministry official said (WSJ)

• Kuwait Petroleum has temporarily suspended operations at its Mina Abdullah and Mina Al-Ahmadi refineries (WSJ)

• World's largest LNG plant, Qatar's Ras Laffan, suffers extensive damage after Iranian missile hit (BBG)

• Trump says no more strikes will be made on South Pars gas field unless Iran attacks Qatar (BBG)

• Iran's aerial attacks target Saudi refinery, prompt UAE gas facility closures and caused fires at two Kuwaiti refineries (JP)

• Escalating attacks on Gulf energy assets shift Iran war into critical new phase as analysts say war likely extended into May (AX)

IRAN

• Trump says 'not putting troops anywhere in Iran' (RT)

• European powers, Japan pledge to cooperate in efforts to ensure safe passage in Strait of Hormuz (UK)

• Pentagon requests over $200bn for Iran war budget, some White House officials not hopeful for Congress approval (WP)

• Senate Republicans block efforts to halt Iran war until Trump seeks congressional approval again (NYT)

STOCKS

• FedEx Q3 FY26: Revenue up approximately 6% to $24bn, adjusted EPS $5.25 vs. $4.13 est, upgraded FY26 revenue and earnings guidance. Freight spinoff on track for Jun, shares up ~9% after hours (CNBC)

• Goldman Sachs to begin cutting low-performing staff in April (BI)

• China's Alibaba targets $100bn in AI and cloud revenue over 5 years (YF)

• Crypto.com cuts 12% of staff, citing enterprise-wide AI integration (CNBC)

• Apple reports 23% increase in China smartphone sales to start, bucking industry trend (RT)

• Samsung Electronics plans to invest over $73bn this year to lead in AI semiconductor industry (RT)

• HSBC weighs up to 20,000 job cuts as AI reshapes operations (BBG)

CENTRAL BANKS

• ECB keeps rates on hold for sixth straight meeting, warns Iran war has made the outlook “significantly more uncertain” and sees “material impact” in the near-term (BBG)

• Bank of England left rates unchanged, all nine members voted to hold in first decision without any dissent in almost five years, noted “stands ready to act” against inflation surge (BBG)

• BOJ on hold and reiterates rate hikes to continue if outlook materialises, Iran conflict poses upside risks to inflation (RT)

• Brazil cuts interest rates by 25 bp as expected, pace of future cuts depends on economic impact of Middle East conflict (BBG)

• Sweden's central bank keeps borrowing costs steady, awaiting clarity from Middle East conflict (BBG)

• Fed set to soften bank capital rules, hold billions less on balance sheets (CNBC)

• China likely to maintain benchmark lending rates for 10th month as rising oil prices heighten inflation uncertainty (RT)

ECONOMY

• Economists predict no recession unless oil reaches US$138 and stays elevated for weeks (WSJ)

• Australian employment surges in February, jobless rate unexpectedly rises (RT)

• New Zealand GDP advanced 0.2% in Q4 vs. 0.5% ests, sharp deceleration in growth leaves economy in weak position to absorb Middle East fallout (BBG)

• WTO says Europe will suffer biggest hit to trade from Middle East conflict, see goods exports contracting 0.6% if energy prices remain high (FT)

ASX TODAY

It's very, very quiet on the announcement front.

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• Commodities smashed: Another very, very rough overnight session for commodities. It was extremely violent, with copper surprisingly up 0.85%, despite falling as much as 3.2%. Commodities like aluminium, silver and palladium finished lower, but off worst levels as well. Seeing a lot of takes surrounding i) base metals starting to price in global demand destruction; ii) leveraged funds getting margin calls and liquidating liquid assets like gold; iii) Gulf countries are major reserve/gold buyers but export revenues are now collapsing and likely need to liquidate; iv) energy impact on countries like China may slow reserve accumulation. While the local gold sector was the first to react to this selloff (All Ords Gold Index down 9.2% yesterday), gold prices continued to unravel another ~3.6% since market close on Thursday. That said, BHP ADRs finished just 1.3% lower overnight and well off session lows. So perhaps today could see some form of relief rally for these oversold miners.

BROKER MOVES

Broker data is still pending. Check out the Evening Wrap for a full breakdown of today's analyst updates.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 20 Mar: CVC (CVC) – $0.05, Jupiter Mines (JMS) – $0.006, Latitude Group Holdings (LFS) – $0.05

• Mon 23 Mar: Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) – $0.14, Lycopodium (LYL) – $0.22, NRW Holdings (NWH) – $0.085, Cash Converters International (CCV) – $0.01

• Tue 24 Mar: Civmec (CVL) – $0.025, Fat Prophets Global Contrarian Fund (FPC) – $0.02

• Wed 25 Mar: Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT) – $0.12, Naos Emerging Opportunities Company (NCC) – $0.021, Perenti (PRN) – $0.033, Service Stream (SSM) – $0.03

• Thu 26 Mar: Ipd Group (IPG) – $0.068, Salter Brothers Emerging Companies (SB2) – $0.02, Tourism Holdings Rentals (THL) – $0.025

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Count (CUP), Eureka Group Holdings (EGH), Heartland Group Holdings (HGH), Ignite (IGN), L1 Group (L1G), MyState (MYS), Nido Education (NDO), Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI), Praemium (PPS), Pro Medicus (PME), PWR Holdings (PWH), Sigma Healthcare (SIG), SKS Technologies Group (SKS), Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ), TPC Consolidated (TPC)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEDT):

No major economic announcements.