Evening Wrap: Why the ASX 200 is set for more choppy trade + UBS downgrades the retail sector

 The S&P/ASX 200 closed 43 points lower, down -0.58%. 

The Index didn't stand a chance amid weakness from Energy, Discretionary, Tech and Materials. The UK posts an unexpectedly sticky inflation print for May, why the ASX 200 is set for more choppy times, UBS downgrades a basket of retail stocks and a few Macquarie notes of interest.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 slumps intraday and finishes at worst levels (Source: Market Index)

Markets

The ASX 200 finally caved in after rallying for eight consecutive days. Staples was the only sector to finish in the positive, while other defensive sectors such as Utilities, Healthcare and Telcos outperformed on a relative basis. Perhaps a little bit of a rotation is taking place?

Resources pulled back as China's growth concerns continue to outweigh ongoing stimulus efforts. Tech stocks also led to the downside. Discretionary stocks were also heavy as UBS downgraded 8 heavyweight retail and CreditorWatch flagged the food and drink sector as most at risk amid a spike in insolvencies. The Index is beginning to pull back, so let's see if this is a shallow one that's well supported (or not).

Economy

UK inflation was unchanged at 8.7% year-on-year in May.

• Analysts expected inflation to ease to 8.4%

• Core inflation accelerated to 7.1% from 6.8% in April

Latest news

Market Insights

ASX 200 Seasonality

From a seasonality perspective (based on ASX 200 performance between June 1992 to March 2023), the market has some more choppy times ahead.

The ASX 200 historically falls 0.68% in the month of June (second worst performing month of the year).

Followed by an average 2.19% gain in July (third best performing month of the year).

ASX 200 seasonality based on daily performance from June 1992 to March 2023

UBS Downgrades Retail Stocks

UBS downgraded four retail stocks on Wednesday and revised the earnings profile of four others. You can read more about it here.

What's interesting is that this is a sector that's been struggling for weeks now and there's been no shortage of bearish company commentary, including:

• Baby Bunting – 6 June: “The key Storktake promotional event … has seen trading both in stores and online well below expectations … since launch, sales have been unprecedentedly low, with comparable store sales of around negative 21.0%.”

• Adairs – 2 June: “... the impact of rising interest rates and higher cost of living has created a more subdued trading environment since April with lower traffic observed both in stores and online.”

• Universal Store – 24 May: “... a deteriorating macro environment, and increasingly clear signs that the youth customer is seeing pressures on their discretionary spending levels.”

Most of these stocks have already been smashed on a one month and year-to-date basis but the downgrades sent them even later on Wednesday.

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +31.0% Bubs Australia (BUB) – US sales update

• +20.9% Azure Minerals (AZS)

• +8.4% Hastings Technology Metals (HAS)

• +7.8% Tyro Payments (TYR)

• +5.8% Mesoblast (MSB) – Continuation rally, up 15% in prev three

• +2.0% Chalice Mining (CHN) – Upgraded by JPMorgan

Trading lower

• -12.0% Regional Express (REX) – Guidance

• -8.5% Lindian Resources (LIN)

• -6.9% Flight Centre (FLT)

• -5.4% TPG Telecom (TPG) – Responds to Tribunal ruling

• -3.6% Cleanaway (CWY) – Guidance

• -3.1% Superloop (SLC) 

• -2.9% Inghams (ING) – The Australian flagged food and drink sector most at risk amid a surge in insolvencies

• Gold sector move: Evolution Mining (-2.3%), Perseus Mining (-2.3%), Northern Star (-2.3%), Gold Road (-2.0%), Newcrest (-1.2%)

• Retail sector move: Premier Investments (-4.85%), Accent Group (-4.5%), Super Retail Group (-2.6%), JB Hi-Fi (-2.4%), Lovisa (-2.0%)

Broker notes

Macquarie notes of interest: 

Atlantic Lithium (A11) – Outperform with $0.80 target price

• “A11 has reported initial drilling results from Ewoyaa South-2 with multiple high-grade interceptions.”

• “We believe there is upside to A11’s mine life and resource base through exploration. Accelerated DMS sales and by-product credits also present upside to our base case.”

• “DFS update and mining licence approval for the Ewoyaa project presents a key near-term catalyst for A11.”

Regis Healthcare (REG) – Outperform with $2.40 target price

• “REG has announced the sale of vacant land and the Hollywood retirement village (Hollywood Village) in Nedlands, WA for ~A$53mn.”

• “This transaction results in a pro forma ~58% reduction to net debt (i.e. as at May-23), providing flexibility for growth, including acquisitions.”

• “We see the outlook for residential aged care as positive, underpinned by favourable industry fundamentals (ageing population, reduced new places in recent years) and improved government funding.”

Woodside Energy (WDS) – Neutral with $34.00 target price

• “Woodside Energy has taken FID on the large Trion oil project (WDS 60%), US$4.8bn net capex and all-in breakeven target ~US$50/bbl.”

• “Our 2023E forecasts are 12%/6% below consensus in 2023E/2024E (Bloomberg 28D) and as a result our dividend forecast for this coming reporting season is below consensus (US$0.66/sh interim).”

Scans