Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rallies to 2-month high + China cuts rates for the first time in 10 months

The Index is on a seven day winning streak, the RBA released its Meeting Minutes which flagged upside inflation risks, China cut two key lending rates in an attempt to bolster subdued economic growth, retail stocks like Baby Bunting and Accent Group continue to tumble lower and a few interesting broker notes from Macquarie and UBS.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 rallies intraday and finished at session highs (Source: Market Index)

Markets

The ASX 200 finished higher and at best levels. The market rallied around 11:30 am AEST which coincided with the release of the RBA Meeting Minutes and China's interest rate cut. This helped several large cap names rally, notably Woodside (+2.2%) to a 3-month high and Commonwealth Bank (+1.1%) to a 4-month high. The market is now on a 7-day winning streak, up 3.6%. The Index is getting pretty frothy in the short-term. On one hand, you have to wonder whether or not we see a short-term high. But its also some rather extraordinary strength that has to be respected. Let's see how the market holds up as we head towards the end of FY23.

Economy

The RBA Meeting Minutes were released at 11:30 am AEST – which coincided with a spike for the ASX 200. Highlights include:

• Inflation risks: “The recent data suggested that inflation risks had shifted somewhat to the upside. Given this shift and the already drawn-out return of inflation to target, the Board judged that a further increase in interest rates was warranted.”

• Housing loan approvals: “Members also noted that the stabilisation in housing loan approvals suggested that financial conditions may not have been as tight as they had previously judged.”

• Outlook: “In taking the decision to increase interest rates again, members acknowledged the considerable uncertainty regarding the outlook for household spending and the financial stresses ..  agreed to continue to monitor trends in household spending closely and consider the implications for the inflation outlook, as well as developments in the global economy and the domestic labour market.”

China cut two more key lending rates for the first time in 10 months:

• One-year loan prime rate was cut by 10 bps to 3.55%

• Five-year loan prime rate cut by 10 bps to 4.2%

Latest news

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +20.4% Southern Cross Media (SXL) – A1N acquires 14.8% stake at $1.09

• +14.4% 29Metals (29M) – Continuation rally, up 11% in previous three

• +11.1% Renascor Resources (RNU)

• +5.2% Thorn Group (TGA) – Sell asset finance portfolio for $15m

• +3.3% Kingsgate (KCN) – Drilling results

• +3.0% Arafura (ARU) – Debt financing LOI

• +4.3% Talga Group (TLG) – EIB funding approval for Vittangi Project

• +4.2% Leo Lithium (LLL) – Upgrades Goulamina MRE

• +2.8% AGL Energy (AGL) – Continuation rally, up 10% in previous three

• +2.5%  Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – NAIF sector funding

Trading lower

• -19.7% Lake Res (LKE) – Continuation selloff, down 19% in previous three

• -4.6% Queensland Pacific Minerals (QPM) – 4N HPA production report

• -2.9% Sezzle (SZL) – 3.2m share equity shelf filing (Mon)

• -1.8% Regis Healthcare (REG) – Downgraded at Jefferies

• Retail sector move: Baby Bunting (-4.6%), Premier Investments (-4.1%), Accent Group (-3.8%), Adairs (-2.9%)

Broker notes

UBS notes of interest:

AGL Energy (AGL) – Buy with $12.15 target price

• “AGL's Investor Day exceeded expectations, supported by upgrades to FY23 earnings guidance, an improved gas supply portfolio and setting FY24 EBITDA & NPAT guidance 17-21% above consensus estimates at the midpoint.”

• “The key takeaway was AGL confirming that sustained electricity price increases over the last 18 months will wash through its portfolio over 2-3 years, confirming the path is set for multi-year earnings growth.”

Iluka Resources (ILU) – Sell with $10.90 target price

• “We downgrade ILU to Sell following recent share price performance - up c25% YTD vs the broader sector up 4% (ASX Mining 300), while mineral sands prices look to have flatlined YTD (after a robust 2022).”

• “Growing/persistent headwinds around China's property market and global macro also see us trim our mineral sands price outlook 1-7% across 2023-27.”

• “While we still like ILU's Eneabba rare earths project for its geopolitical importance we now see capacity for prices to stay lower for longer given China's current dominance and apparent (growing) reluctance to support prices.”

Macquarie notes of interest:

Centaurus Metals (CTM) – Outperform with $1.55 target price

• “CTM has secured 100% rights to Jaguar offtake from Vale in exchange for an increased royalty rate on the project.”

• “This provides CTM flexibility for the future development of Jaguar and allows it to investigate other avenues including bringing a partner onboard.”

• “Upcoming catalysts for CTM are the DFS and maiden Reserve, both of which are expected in 4QCY23.”

CSL (CSL) – Outperform with $326.00 target price

• “FY23 NPATA (CC) is expected to be slightly ahead of our previous forecasts, but with FY24 guidance below.”

• “We moderate near-term gross margins for CSL Behring (outer years largely unchanged) and capture generic competition for Ferinject.”

• “Despite weaker-than-expected near-term earnings, we continue to see the medium-longer term outlook as favourable for CSL. Retain OP.”

Xero (XRO) – Neutral with $119.00 target price

• “Xero informed its customer base of price increases of 13% in Australia (excluding payroll-only) and 9% in NZ. Source link.”

• “We remain cautious on the growth outlook with price being used as a lever given XRO should remain in a volume growth phase.”

• “Churn should remain subdued despite higher pricing due to stickiness of service. Valuation challenging in a pure price-growth stock. Neutral.”

Scans