The 10 most overbought and oversold ASX 200 stocks – Week 49
Mon 04 Dec 23, 4:09pm (AEST)
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Market Wraps
/Evening Wrap: Golden performance, ASX 200 notches handy gain on record gold price
Market Wraps
Evening Wrap: Golden performance, ASX 200 notches handy gain on record gold price
Mon 04 Dec 23, 5:35pm (AEST)
Stocks in article
The S&P/ASX 200 closed 51.5 points higher, up 0.73%.
Aussie investors took another tentative step towards the summit today as gold, technology, property, and materials stocks all powered ahead. Gold futures notched their own summit, chart below, but weaker a crude oil price dragged on the energy sector.
Let's dive in.
Today in Review
Mon 04 Dec 23, 4:21pm (AEST)
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Markets
ASX 200 Session Chart
Robust S&P/ASX 200 price action today (Source: Market Index)
The S&P/ASX200 (XJO) finished 51.5 points higher at 7,124.7, 0.60% from its session low and 0.73% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a very solid 205 to 76.
The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Sub-Index (XGD) +3.2% was the best performing sector today, likely in response to a big move up in gold prices on a Friday, but also helping was a sharp spike in futures prices in Asian trading today.
Gold Futures really took off after they broke through the US2,100/oz barrier to set a new record high US$2,152/oz. Moves like this are most likely the result of a big short position going off. Remember, if you're short and you want to get out, you must buy back.
Why you'd be short a chart which looks this good, though, is beyond me!
Where's my rocket ship emoji...🚀...there it is! Source: TradingView
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1-month Perf % | 1-year Perf % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alkane Resources (ALK) | $0.725 | +$0.065 | +9.8% | +19.8% | +18.9% |
Genesis Minerals (GMD) | $1.890 | +$0.115 | +6.5% | +30.8% | +48.2% |
Bellevue Gold (BGL) | $1.815 | +$0.095 | +5.5% | +33.0% | +79.7% |
West African Resources (WAF) | $0.975 | +$0.045 | +4.8% | +22.6% | -15.6% |
Perseus Mining (PRU) | $2.03 | +$0.09 | +4.6% | +20.1% | -9.0% |
Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.455 | +$0.02 | +4.6% | +24.7% | +184.4% |
Northern Star Resources (NST) | $12.90 | +$0.46 | +3.7% | +11.0% | +21.7% |
Silver Lake Resources (SLR) | $1.150 | +$0.04 | +3.6% | +9.0% | -5.0% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | $1.975 | +$0.055 | +2.9% | +9.1% | +12.9% |
Emerald Resources (EMR) | $2.88 | +$0.08 | +2.9% | +13.4% | +154.9% |
Capricorn Metals (CMM) | $4.86 | +$0.12 | +2.5% | +5.9% | +15.7% |
Evolution Mining (EVN) | $4.14 | +$0.1 | +2.5% | +17.9% | +53.9% |
Cue the puns about gold shining... Source: TradingView
Also beating the benchmark today was Information Technology (XIJ) +1.9%, Real Estate Investment Trusts (XPJ) +1.6%, Materials (XMJ) +1.5%, Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) +1.2%.
I'd lump these into the group of 'interest rate sensitives', that is, those stocks whose earnings are particularly sensitive to moves in interest rates. Today's gains in these sectors are likely being driven by another sharp drop in long term bond yields, particularly in the US.
It's always all about yields. Source: TradingView
I'm going to start just copying and pasting from the last Evening Update for this next bit. Worst performers? Again, Energy (XEJ) -% and Utilities (XUJ) -% where at the bottom of the losers pile, which to be fair was just the XEJ and XUJ today!
Just following the the chart from Friday's do or die analysis, it looks a bit more like 'die' than 'do' unfortunately for Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) & Co. The 16 November low of $72.37 remains the key level to watch. A close below there, well, let's just say that wouldn't be good...
WTI Crude appears to be deciding which way it wants to break next . Source: TradingView
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1-month Perf % | 1-year Perf % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stanmore Resources (SMR) | $3.75 | -$0.242 | -6.1% | -1.5% | +40.4% |
Origin Energy (ORG) | $7.86 | -$0.32 | -3.9% | -6.2% | 0% |
Karoon Energy (KAR) | $2.00 | -$0.05 | -2.4% | -19.8% | -9.4% |
Yancoal Australia (YAL) | $4.83 | -$0.12 | -2.4% | +2.5% | -15.0% |
New Hope Corporation (NHC) | $5.10 | -$0.11 | -2.1% | -6.1% | -11.6% |
Woodside Energy Group (WDS) | $30.35 | -$0.49 | -1.6% | -10.8% | -18.6% |
Beach Energy (BPT) | $1.465 | -$0.02 | -1.3% | -3.9% | -17.7% |
Santos (STO) | $6.82 | -$0.08 | -1.2% | -8.1% | -7.8% |
Not a copy-paste from Friday...I promise! Source: TradingView
Economy
The Melbourne Institute Inflation rose 0.3% in November, up from 0.1% in October, but on an annual basis, it fell 4.4% compared to 5.1% a month earlier. The annualised fall is welcome news for households and the RBA, but November's blip up is somewhat concerning.
That said, 12 times 0.3% is 3.6%, which is still better than the current 4.4%. It's still too high for the RBA, though, who really want inflation back within their 2-3% average target range.
ANZ Job Ads showed a weaker Australian jobs market in November, and weaker than originally though in October. The Job Ads series in fell 4.6% last month and while October was revised 3.4% lower.
Higher prices, weaker economy. Sounds like the exact opposite of what we want!
What to watch out for...
The RBA meets tomorrow for their final meeting of 2023. Economists don't expect any grinches on the RBA board, and despite the fact they'll probably keep talking tough on inflation in tomorrows statement, the official cash rate will remain on hold at 4.35%.
30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Target Implied Expectation of change 4 Dec 2023. Source: ASX
It is going to be a big week in data, however, with Aussie GDP figures due on Wednesday, plus a slew of US employment data, starting with JOLTS Job Openings also on Wednesday, and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.
Interesting news and movers
Trading higher
+13.7% Myer Holdings (MYR) - No news
+11.5% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news since 30-Nov AFR article noting Indonesia has failed to obtain subsidies from the US regarding its nickel production (paywall)
+9.8% Alkane Resources (ALK) - Record highs for gold price
+7.5% Bell Financial Group (BFG) - No news
+6.9% Lotus Resources (LOT) - No news since 01-Dec Bounce in uranium companies on new 15-year highs in uranium price
+6.9% The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) - No news
+6.5% Genesis Minerals (GMD) - Record highs for gold price
+6.4% Deep Yellow (DYL) - Bounce in uranium companies on new 15-year highs in uranium price
+6.0% Beacon Lighting Group (BLX) - No news
+5.6% Red 5 (RED) - Record highs for gold price
+5.5% Bellevue Gold (BGL) - Record highs for gold price
+4.9% Alumina (AWC) - Stronger materials sector
+4.8% West African Resources (WAF) - Record highs for gold price
Trading lower
-11.8% PYC Therapeutics (PYC) - No news since 30-Nov Response to Price Query
-9.8% Brainchip Holdings (BRN) - Capital Call Notice - Correction
-9.7% Sayona Mining (SYA) - Weaker lithium sector on continued plunge in lithium minerals prices
-9.5% Strike Energy (STX) - Weaker energy sector on lower energy commodity prices
-6.1% Stanmore Resources (SMR) - Weaker energy sector on lower energy commodity prices
-5.6% Atlantic Lithium (A11) - Weaker lithium sector on continued plunge in lithium minerals prices
-5.6% Core Lithium (CXO) - Weaker lithium sector on continued plunge in lithium minerals prices
-4.8% Grange Resources (GRR) - No news, weaker iron ore price
-4.5% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - Weaker lithium sector on continued plunge in lithium minerals prices
Broker notes
ARN Media (A1N) retained at underweight Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.86
Challenger (CGF) retained at buy Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.05 from $6.89
Chalice Mining (CHN) upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.20 from $2.30
Coles Group (COL)
Retained at outperform Macquarie; Price Target: $17.40
Upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.50
CSL (CSL) retained at outperform Macquarie; Price Target: $321.00
Develop Global (DVP) retained at buy Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.30
Endeavour Group (EDV) retained at outperform Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50
EML Payments (EML) upgraded to overweight from market-weight at Wilsons; Price Target: $1.17
Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) retained at buy Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.25
Fleetpartners Group (FPR) initiated at buy Citi; Price Target: $3.60
IGO (IGO) retained at buy UBS; Price Target: $10.50 from $12.20
Mineral Resources (MIN) retained at sell UBS; Price Target: $49.00 from $53.00
Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC) retained at overweight Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.30 from $2.40
Northern Star Resources (NST) retained at outperform Macquarie; Price Target: $15.00
OOH!Media (OML)
Retained at equalweight Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.65
Retained at neutral Citi; Price Target: $26.50 from $24.90
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) downgraded from neutral to sell at UBS; Price Target: $3.75 from $3.00
Premier Investments (PMV)
Downgraded to underperform from outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $24.00
Retained at sell UBS; Price Target: $24.00
Retained at sell Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $21.50
Retail Food Group (RFG) retained at buy Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.13
Resmed (RMD) retained at outperform Macquarie; Price Target: $33.40
Silex Systems (SLX) retained at underperforrm Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.75
Tuas (TUA) retained at overweight Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.40
Universal Store Holdings (UNI) upgraded from buy to neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.93 from $3.70
Scans
Carl has over 30-years investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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