Evening Wrap: ASX 200 sneaks gain on Woodside Energy bounce, gold stocks rally, as Pilbara Minerals rally gathers steam

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 2.8 points higher, up 0.03%.

The rally in energy stocks grew into a fourth day as talks between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely result in India slowing its purchases of Russian crude oil. Talking about rallies, gold stocks also rose today, barely, leaving many to question whether it's just a dead cat bounce 🙀.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 2.8 points higher at 9,032.8, 0.52% from its session low and just 0.12% from its high. Despite the scant gain in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by an emphatic 184 to 93 – reversing yesterday’s dire performance.

Fund flows: Energised by Trump 🛢️

Energy (XEJ) (+3.2%) is seeing its rally grow into a fourth day as talks between US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will likely result in India slowing its purchases of Russian crude oil. Benchmark crude contracts were 2% higher overnight and have popped another 3% in Asian trade today. Karoon Energy (KAR) (+9.4%) was the sector’s best, but Woodside Energy (WDS) (+4.3%), Ampol (ALD) (+4.1%), Viva Energy (VEA) (+3.2%), and Beach Energy (BPT) (+2.9%) also prospered. Looking at the chart of Brent Crude Futures below, it’s still very much rangebound stuff…

Brent Crude Oil Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) ICE

Talking about bounces, the Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+1.5%) also rose today, but this was a mere shadow of a performance compared to its near-10% hobbling yesterday. How high does a dead cat bounce? About 1.5%. At least it was a bounce, and on a day where both gold and silver commodities are facing further losses (full technical analysis here).

Today's sneaky 2.8 point gain by the close is even more impressive considering the drag from the Financials (XFJ) (-0.8%) sector – all Big 4 banks and Macquarie Group (MQG) (-1.3%) were down modestly today – backing out yesterday's anchoring gains. Maybe understandable given the rebound in Resources (XJR) (+0.8%).

I feel like I've been typing this a lot over the last 6-8 weeks (bringing this to your attention!) but high-PE Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.9%) was again down the bottom of the sector performance list.

Stock Specific: Trends change, not my commitment to following them

You'll notice that Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (+5.3%) was the best of the stocks in the ASX 100 today (what I loosely refer to as "blue chips"). I copped a bit of flack in a comment in this article yesterday about what I may have "said" about PLS in the past. I'll let you read the answer there, and just note that I'm very pleased to see it in the list below – but I could not care any less what it does next. That's up to the market, not me.

One thing you can be sure of is this: My unwavering commitment to always follow the trend as my model dictates.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Remember that final scene in the movie Babe?

That’s how I feel about the Old Tin Pot today…

That’ll do OTP. That’ll do...

Hey, it wasn’t a perfect winning performance like that brave little pig's, but our brave little pig, or pot, or whatever you want to call it, still did pretty darn good today 🥇.

Look at that intraday chart above… such a steady recovery from that lower open – an opening downward blip that if maintained or improved upon by the supply-side, could have turned out to be a very nasty addition to yesterday's decline.

It tells me there's still motivated latent excess demand in the system looking to buy the dip. It's that exact buy the dip mentality among market participants that creates the tell-tale downward pointing shadows we look out for – as is the case on today’s candle – a modest demand-side showing.

More broadly speaking, we seem to be vibrating within a range bounded by 8963 and the short term trend ribbon beneath, and the last two all-time high peaks of 9110-16 above.

Which makes it pretty simple: Ideally, we don’t close below the bottom of the range, and we do close above the top of the range (yep – stating the bleeding obvious!).

View: No change in my prevailing view, as there’s nothing in the trends, price action, nor candles to warrant it. I note they’re all still demand-side-control oriented = FRP (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 100%).

Key levels: 8963 is the closest key point of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of the XJO’s price. Ultimately though, 8731 remains the critical go-no-go zone for the XJO bull market = ⚠️.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today.

Later this week

Friday

• 01:00 USA September Existing Home Sales (4.06 million forecast 4.0 million in August)

• 09:00 AUS October Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs

  • Manufacturing: was 51.4 in September

  • Services: was 52.4 in September (revised up from 52.0)

• 11:05 AUS RBA Governor Michelle Bullock speaks

• 23:30 USA Core CPI

  • September Change: +0.4% forecast vs +0.4% in August

  • Annual Change: +3.1% p.a. forecast vs +2.9% p.a. in August

Saturday

• 00:45 USA October Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs

  • Manufacturing: 51.9 forecast vs 52.0 in September

  • Services: 53.5 forecast vs 54.2 in September

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +14.8% VHM (VHM) - Continued positive response to 21-Oct VHM Secures Support from EFA and EXIM, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +12.7% Baby Bunting Group (BBN) - No news 🤔.

• +11.1% Decidr AI Industries (DAI) - No news 🤔.

• +10.8% Arafura Rare Earths (ARU) - No news since 21-Oct Export Finance Australia Update, rebounded after yesterday’s sharp sell-off due to N.

• +10.7% Imugene (IMU) - No news 20-Oct PD1-Vaxx to Feature at ESMO 2025, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📈

• +9.8% Australian Rare Earths (AR3) - No news since 22-Oct AR3 receives A$617k Government R&D incentive, rebounded after yesterday’s sharp sell-off due to N.

• +9.5% Findi (FND) - No news since 21-Oct A$30m Facility, Sphere Acquisition and FY26 Guidance, rebounded after yesterday’s sharp sell-off due to N.

• +9.4% Karoon Energy (KAR) - 2025 Third Quarter Report, general strength across the broader Energy sector today.

• +9.3% Artrya (AYA) - No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.2% American West Metals (AW1) - Continued positive response to 16-Oct Placement to Advance America's Largest Indium Deposit, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +9.1% LGI (LGI) - LGI announces $51.2M Placement & launches $5M SPP, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +8.9% Felix Gold (FXG) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.8% Silex Systems (SLX) - GLE Achieves TRL-6, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +8.7% Australian Clinical Labs (ACL) - On Market Share Buy Back.

• +7.9% Symal Group (SYL) - Morgans Conference Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.3% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) - No news since 22-Oct CTVQ commercial rollout commences at Stanford.

• +7.0% EQ Resources (EQR) - Updated Investor Presentation.

Trading lower

• -21.4% Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) - No news since 20-Oct Investor Webinar 23 October 2025, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -20.0% Resolution Minerals (RML) - No news since 22-Oct Downstream Antimony Strategy and Tribeca Appointment, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -10.9% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) - No news since 21-Oct Mines & Money / IMARC 2025 Presentation, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -10.8% Dateline Resources (DTR) - No news since 22-Oct Managing Director Invests $277K to Advance Colosseum, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -9.1% Energy Transition Minerals (ETM) - No news since 21-Oct Judicial Approval for Penouta Acquisition, general weakness across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -8.9% Adairs (ADH) - No news, pulled back after yesterday’s sharp rally due to Trading update.

• -4.3% Perpetual (PPT) - 2025 AGM Addresses and Presentation.

Broker Moves

29Metals (29M)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.55 from $0.48

Amaero (3DA)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.60

4DMedical (4DX)

• Downgraded to accumulate from speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.90 from $0.75

AIC Mines (A1M)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.75

Adairs (ADH)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.60

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $2.80 from $3.00

• Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $2.68 from $2.96

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.60 from $2.70

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.55

Aeris Resources (AIS)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.52 from $0.35

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.60

• Downgraded to accumulate from speculative buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.62 from $0.43

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.66

ALS (ALQ)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $26.00 from $18.50

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.70

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.55 from $5.64

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.11

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.35

Amcor Plc (AMC)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $18.25

Autosports Group (ASG)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.20 from $3.15

Beforepay Group (B4P)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $3.00

Bapcor (BAP)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.10

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $44.00 from $43.00

Codan (CDA)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $34.00 from $29.60

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.40 from $10.60

Carnaby Resources (CNB)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.80

Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.10

Dyno Nobel (DNL)

• Downgraded to neutral from buy at UBS; Price Target: $3.35 from $3.25

DroneShield (DRO)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $5.00 from $3.60

FireFly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.70

Fortescue (FMG)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $19.00

Hazer Group (HZR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.70

MAAS Group Holdings (MGH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.10

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.31

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $21.00

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.60

• Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.45

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.40

Orica (ORI)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $25.00 from $22.00

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.55 from $25.33

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $26.40 from $25.59

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $20.50 from $19.80

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $119.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $124.00

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.65 from $6.60

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (RWC)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.55

Rox Resources (RXL)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.10

South32 (S32)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.00

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $3.75 from $3.55

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.60

Sandfire Resources (SFR)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.00

Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.20 from $3.10

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.60 from $3.40

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.90 from $2.80

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.40 from $3.30

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.90 from $2.50

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.30

Silex Systems (SLX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $9.42 from $6.90

Service Stream (SSM)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.65

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.57

Super Retail Group (SUL)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $18.20

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $23.00

Vitrafy Life Sciences (VFY)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.10

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $25.50

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $31.85 from $31.35

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $24.00

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.00

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $25.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $22.70 from $22.50

Scans