Evening Wrap: ASX 200 snaps three-day win streak as banks slide, Glencore makes ASX debut

In a nutshell:

• Financials gave back all of Tuesday’s 1.39% gain, led by CBA (-2.1%), which struck an in-principle pay deal with the Finance Sector Union a day before its AGM

• Materials hit a two-month low as BHP and copper miners like Sandfire (-2.7%) fell, despite copper rising 0.5% to US$6.81/lb, within 1.5% of record highs

• Glencore made its ASX debut under the ticker GLC, trading on 4.9x FY27 EV/EBITDA vs 8.2x for BHP and 7.8x for Rio Tinto

Let's dive in

• The ASX 200 snapped a three-day win streak, but finished well above session lows of -0.97%

• Financials gave back the entirety of Tuesday’s 1.39% gain, led by a sharp pullback in CBA (-2.1%), along with declines from Bendigo Bank (-3.4%), Bank of Queensland (-3.0%), NAB (-1.7%) and Westpac (-1.3%). ANZ (-0.2%), which we’ve flagged as the most constructive-looking bank (very shallow pullbacks, trading within 5% of all-time highs and up 7.5% year-to-date), posted the smallest decline

  • The only notable catalyst was CBA, which struck an in-principle deal with the Finance Sector Union giving 35,000 staff pay rises of up to 13% over three years, ending a six-month stand-off a day before its AGM

  • The union says the deal sets the starting point for negotiations with the rest of the big four, beginning with NAB, whose agreement expires on 31 December, followed by ANZ next September and Westpac at the end of 2027

• Materials hit a two-month low, with the index closing fractionally above its 200-day moving average. BHP (-0.95%) and Rio Tinto (-0.3%) slipped, while the All Ords Gold index fell 1.9%. We’re at an interesting juncture, where copper is up another 0.5% today to US$6.81/lb and within 1.5% of all-time highs, yet the majors and copper pure plays like Firefly Metals (-3.9%), Sandfire (-2.7%) and Capstone (-1.7%) all moved in the opposite direction. It’s clearly not the most bullish backdrop, but something’s got to give. Either copper equities slingshot higher when risk appetite improves, or copper is rising on something that isn’t demand-related (e.g. US tariff concerns)

• Iron ore is another interesting juncture. The commodity is down around 7% year-to-date and at its lowest level since July 2025, yet BHP and Rio Tinto are up 38% and 13% year-to-date (including dividends), while Fortescue is down 26%. As much as you want to attribute this outperformance to copper, iron ore still makes up 43% and 56% of BHP and Rio Tinto’s Group EBITDA respectively

• On the flip side, there’s more convincing evidence that yields are topping. The Aussie 10-year has slipped for five straight sessions, down 7 bps to 5.31%, while the 30-year is also on a five-day skid, down 10 bps to 5.78%. Both have slipped below their 20-day moving averages for the first time since July, which could help breathe some life back into yield-sensitive sectors like Real Estate and Telcos

• Battered engineering and electrical contractors staged a sizeable bounce, including SKS Technologies (+7.9%), Southern Cross Electrical (+6.3%), GenusPlus (+3.7%) and Symal (+2.6%). That said, most are still down 5-10% over the past week, with SKS down 29.8%. This follows a sharp selloff on Tuesday, likely tied to the delayed AirTrunk IPO, and sharp declines last week following the failed Firmus IPO

• Glencore made its ASX debut under the ticker GLC. At a glance, it has zero iron ore exposure, with 24% of Group EBITDA coming from coal and another 25% from its marketing and trading arm, which no other major has. It also trades at a discount on FY27 EV/EBITDA, at 4.9x vs BHP at 8.2x and Rio Tinto at 7.8x

• Overall, markets remain as dicey as ever. As we noted the other day, yields are showing more convincing evidence that they’ve peaked, though not because inflation is easing, but on lower growth expectations. Things under the hood remain challenging. The Emerging Companies index (-0.14%) managed to bounce off session lows of -0.86% (but is still down 12% since 26 August), while the Small Ords (-0.85%) closed at its worst level and its lowest since June 2025. Meanwhile, the KOSPI has reversed this morning’s 2.5% bounce and is now down 0.5%

• Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index unchanged at -0.03% in September, pointing to growth at or slightly below trend heading into early 2027.

  • Positive contributors included unemployment expectations (+0.23ppts), consumer expectations and the ASX 200 (both +0.15ppts)

  • Drags were led by dwelling approvals (-0.34ppts) and monthly hours worked (-0.08ppts)

  • The index combines economic and market indicators into a single gauge that signals whether Australian growth is likely to run above or below trend over the next three to nine months

• China’s factory-gate inflation rose up 5.0% year-on-year in August, beating most estimates and marking the fastest pace since 2022

  • Gasoline prices contributed about half a percentage point to the annual CPI increase

  • Margin squeeze as businesses struggle to pass on rising raw material costs, with industrial profits already growing at their weakest pace this year