Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slumps from session highs, CSL beats earnings estimates, US futures higher

Tue 14 Feb 23, 4:52pm (AEST)

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 13 points higher, up 0.18%.

The local sharemarket falls from session highs of 0.8% ahead of key US inflation data, Australian consumer sentiment backflips to near-record lows, big day for corporate earnings with names such as James Hardie, Breville, Challenger and CSL posting half-year results and JP Morgan's CPI scenario analysis.

Let's dive in.


Today in Review

Tue 14 Feb 23, 4:17pm (AEST)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 7,430.9 +0.18%
All Ords 7,628.6 +0.19%
Small Ords 2,892.6 +0.49%
All Tech 2,190.9 +1.01%
Emerging Companies 2,209.5 -0.59%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6974 +0.11%
US Futures
S&P 500 4,143.25 -0.10%
Dow Jones 34,243.0 -0.07%
Nasdaq 12,524.25 -0.13%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Information Technology 1,479.9 +1.27%
Communication Services 1,498.4 +1.15%
Health Care 43,214.2 +0.62%
Real Estate 3,217.7 +0.56%
Consumer Staples 13,350.4 +0.51%
Utilities 7,803.7 +0.45%
Consumer Discretionary 2,970.3 +0.36%
Financials 6,735.9 +0.20%
Materials 18,676.5 -0.24%
Energy 11,104.2 -0.38%
Industrials 6,496.6 -0.39%

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ASX 200 Session Chart

XJO intraday chart
ASX 200 fades from session high of 0.79% to just 0.18% higher (Source: TradingView)

Markets

The nerves are kicking in ahead of the US CPI report. The ASX 200 faded from session highs of 0.79% to close just above breakeven, even as 8 out of the 11 major sectors finished higher.

  • Technology led to the upside, in-line with how the Nasdaq outperformed overnight

  • Healthcare was another top performer after CSL (+0.90%) posted better-than-expected results

  • Materials weighed on the market, with all three iron ore heavyweights BHP, Fortescue and Rio Tinto lower

  • Energy was heavy after a whipsaw session for Woodside (-1.1% from session low of -2.8%)

Economy

Westpac's Consumer Sentiment Index fell -6.9% in February to 78.5 points, which brings it back to historic lows seen last November. Here are some key takeaways from the report:

  • At 78.5, the reading is a touch above the 78 read in November but below the low point of the GFC (79.0) and marginally higher than Covid lows of 75.6

  • Sentiment before the RBA's ninth rate hike was steady at 83.5 but fell to 74.8 after the hike

  • "Most disturbing is the size of the hit to current finances. The ‘family finances vs a year ago’ sub-index dropped 8% in February, to just 62.1 – marking the weakest reading since the depths of the early-1990s recession."

  • "The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index plunged 10.1% to 78, miles below the long run average of 126."

NAB's monthly business confidence survey 6 points to 6 in January, around its long-run average. Some key takeaways from the report include:

  • “Business conditions picked back up in January after three months of softening in late 2022,” said NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster.

  • “There were strong increases in conditions for ‘upstream’ sectors such as wholesale, construction and manufacturing, and importantly, conditions in the more consumer-facing industries remained very strong.”

  • “The improvement in confidence suggest firms have a more optimistic outlook as concerns about global growth prospects ease, while strong conditions are also providing evidence that the economy is more resilient than previously expected.”

Japan's GDP rose 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the December quarter, below consensus expectations of 0.5%.


Latest news


Market Insights

Changing the header here to reflect little snippets relating to macro, technicals, stocks and more.

Markets: JPMorgan's CPI Game Plan

JPMorgan's trading desk offers its scenario analysis for the S&P 500.

Note that consensus expects inflation to come in a 6.2% year-on-year in January from 6.5% in December 2022.

January CPI reading

Probability

S&P 500 reaction

Above 6.5%

5%

Down 2.5% to 3.0%

6.4% to 6.5%

25%

Down 0.75% to 1.5%

6.0% to 6.3%

65%

Up 1.5% to 2.0%

Below 6.0%

5%

Up 2.5% to 3.0%

Markets: S&P 500 Seasonality

S&P 500 seasonality highlights strength through to August. August and September are the worst performing months with an average return of -0.34% and -1.0% respectively.

2023-02-14 16 41 38-
Source: SentimenTrader

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

  • +9.1% SG Fleet (SGF) – Reports 1H earnings

  • +7.1% Sims (SGM) – Reports 1H earnings

  • +5.5% Domain Group (DHG) – Bounce, down more than 10% in last three

  • +5.2% KMD Brands (KMD) – Issues trading update

  • +4.4% Challenger (CGF) – Reports 1H earnings

  • +4.2% Universal Store (UNI) – Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi

  • +3.9% Boss Energy (BOE)

  • +2.7% Aeris Resources (AIS) 

  • +0% Lynas (LYC) – Malaysian operating licence approved for three years

Trading lower 

  • -26.9% Temple & Webster (TPW) – Reports 1H earnings

  • -13.5% Star Entertainment Group (SGR) – 1H earnings (Monday); Downgraded to Underperform at CSL; AFR speculates capital raise of asset sales

  • -8.7% Ansell (ANN) – Reports 1H earnings

  • -7.8% Vulcan (VUL) – DFS for Zero Carbon Lithium Project (Monday)

  • -7.1% Appen (APX) – Guides FY EBITDA to lower end; announces non-cash impairment (Monday)

  • -4.7% Breville Group (BRG) – Reports 1H earnings

  • -4.4% Seven West Media (SWM) – Reports 1H earnings

  • -4.3% James Hardie (JHX) – Reports Q3 earnings


Broker updates 

UBS’ ratings and one liners for company earnings on Tuesday.

Seven West Media (SWM)

  • $0.80 target price; Retains Buy

  • “Result ahead of UBSe but in line with consensus operationally. Early indications suggest mid-high SD % decline in total TV market, limited visibility.”

James Hardie (JHX)

  • $47.50 target price; Retains Buy

  • “Miss on a combination of volumes (USA -10% vs UBSe -4%) and price (+10% vs UBSe +15%) … JHX continues to prefer share gains over EBIT margin in the medium term.” 

Dexus (DXS)

  • $8.50 target price; Retains Neutral

  • “Low quality beat and guidance tightened to upper end of range but focus on capex.”

Breville Group (BRG)

  • $24.60 target price; Retains Buy

  • “EBIT beat, sales touch softer via EMEA & Distribn. Guidance in line.”

Temple & Webster (TPW)

  • $5.40 target price; Retains Neutral

  • “Reduction in costs drive margin beat, B2C revenue and customer trends slightly below.” 

Challenger (CGF)

  • $7.30 target price; Retains Neutral

  • “Core earnings and dividend in line. Key earnings drivers likely to be questioned in both Life and Funds. Guidance reaffirmed.”


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
FAL Falcon Metals Ltd $0.345 +64.29%
BUY Bounty Oil & Gas NL $0.015 +31.82%
SHO Sportshero Ltd $0.02 +25.00%
LMLND Lincoln Minerals Ltd $0.022 +22.22%
ZEU ZEUS Resources Ltd $0.024 +20.00%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
PVS Pivotal Systems C... $0.021 -58.00%
TPW Temple & Webster ... $3.61 -27.07%
CY5 CYGNUS Metals Ltd $0.34 -26.09%
WEC White Energy Comp... $0.22 -22.81%
CSX Cleanspace Holdin... $0.515 -20.77%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
BUY Bounty Oil & Gas NL $0.015 +31.82%
SLX SILEX Systems Ltd $4.95 +3.56%
THL Tourism Holdings ... $3.60 +1.41%
MRM Mma Offshore Ltd $1.05 +0.96%
WBT Weebit Nano Ltd $5.955 +0.59%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
PVS Pivotal Systems C... $0.021 -58.00%
HLF Halo Food Co. Ltd $0.022 -15.39%
AW1 American West Met... $0.053 -14.52%
NNG Nexion Group Ltd $0.03 -14.29%
REY REY Resources Ltd $0.09 -14.29%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
SMLL Betashares Aust S... $3.46 +0.88%
OZBD Betashares Austra... $44.10 +0.18%
AN3PI Australia and New... $102.897 +0.12%
PCI Perpetual Credit ... $1.005 -0.99%
WVOL Ishares Edge MSCI... $34.53 +0.12%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
SVL Silver Mines Ltd $0.155 0.00%
WAF West African Reso... $0.96 -0.52%
DDR Dicker Data Ltd $8.71 0.00%
AKP Audio Pixels Hold... $7.51 -4.82%
PLY Playside Studios Ltd $0.395 -5.95%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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