Evening Wrap: ASX 200 slips as CBA, BEN slides continue, MIN asset sale sparks major lithium sector rally

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 19.3 points lower, down 0.22%.

No doubt you would have read about today's big news regarding Mineral Resources (MIN) selling 30% of its lithium business to POSCO for US$765 million. There was also some potentially positive news on the China supply-front with respect to royalties.

Either way, it's funny how the good news seems to follow the technicals... as in we've been charting an improvement in lithium minerals prices and ASX lithium stocks for a couple of months now...🧐

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 19.3 points lower at 8,799.5, 0.50% from its session high and smack–bang on its session low. Despite the sinking performance on the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 145 to 124.

Fund flows: Signing off... 👋

I think I might retire from Evening Wrap writing today. As in, my random rantings, postulations, and conspiracy theories about fund rotations within the Australian stock market could not have been proven more correct today!

I’m signing off at the top of my game and someone else will be writing the wrap tomorrow! 👋

No, don’t worry (or commiserations), I’ll still be here! But, just look at the sector performance list today:

Top 💪

• Energy (XEJ) (+1.0%)

• Resources (XJR) (+0.9%)

• Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+0.9%)

Bottom 👎

• Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.3%)

• Information Technology (XIJ) (-3.3%)

I.e., from risk-on + high P/E to defensive + low P/E & cyclicals.

A couple of outliers… Consumer Staples (XSJ) (+1.1%) was also pretty good today… it's super defensive too… benefiting today possibly because fundies were looking elsewhere than Financials (XFJ) (-0.9%) for safety after yesterday's disappointing updates from Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) (-3.1%) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) (-3.1%).

You know: As a fundie, you must buy something because the superannuation guarantee money keeps rolling in – so buy defensive and low P/E!

The rest was a snooze-fest, but I note the push and pull in Communication Services (XTJ) (-0.4%) between defensive / low P/E Telstra Group (TLS) (+0.4%) and risk-on / high P/E REA Group (REA) (-2.5%), Seek (SEK) (-1.2%), and Car Group (CAR) (-1.0%) continued.

You wouldn’t believe this stuff happened day in day out… would you? But it does – it’s just how the Old Tin Pot operates… Sell Peter to buy Paul! 🤦

Stock Specific: MinRes exits just as the sector is turning back up

No doubt you would have read about today's big news regarding MinRes selling 30% of its lithium business to POSCO for US$765 million. There was also some potentially positive news on the China supply-front with respect to royalties.

Either way, it's funny how the good news seems to follow the technicals... as in we've been charting an improvement in lithium minerals prices and ASX lithium stocks for a couple of months now.

Lithium minerals prices and ASX lithium stocks were one of the major areas of focus of today's ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar. For those who missed it, you can watch it below.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Slightly different view of the chart of the Old Tin Pot today – courtesy of the analysis we conducted during today’s ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar. It’s worth catching that analysis… but in short:

• Short term trend = ⬇️ (pink ribbon)

• Price action = 📉 (falling peaks and falling troughs)

• Candles = ⬛ (predominantly supply side in nature since the 9116 major point of supply)

• Today’s candle, more specifically, is the second upward pointing shadow = latent excess supply lurking in the system to sell the rally = ⚠️

• Today’s candle forms a peak just below the short term trend ribbon = likely it’s beginning to act as a zone of dynamic supply = ⚠️

The only good things going for the OTP are:

• The major / critical 8371-38 zone of demand continues to hold

• Long term trend = ⬆️ (dark green ribbon)

If you were presented with such evidence, what would you conclude? 🤷

1. Demand-side control

2. Supply-side control

3. Equilibrium –neither party is in control

Unless you went with “1”, it makes sense that your bucket is less than full (the bucket analogy proposes that all your capital could fit in a “risk bucket”. You apply a limit to how much you can fill your risk bucket with individual stock-based risks based on the behaviour of a benchmark index).

Looking at the ASX 200 – how full is your bucket? 🪣🤔

View

I remain comfortable at 1/2RP (1/2 Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%). The upward pointing arrow in the chart above was drawn with commentary that the price must at least trade back above the short term uptrend ribbon before I could consider +R (i.e., increase the maximum allowable risk limit in my bucket!); while on the other hand, a close below 8731 would likely see me -R (i.e., further reduce the maximum allowable risk limit in my bucket!).

Key levels

8831 is the next key level that the price must not cross to maintain any semblance this is still a short term uptrend! A close above the short term uptrend ribbon (presently 8883-8892) would help confirm the demand-side remains active in the system.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today.

Later this week

Thursday

• 11:30 AUS October Employment

  • Change: +20,300 forecast vs +14,900 in September

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.4% vs 4.5% in September

Friday

• Tentative due to govt shutdown – USA October Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in September)

• 05:01 USA 30-year Government Treasury Bond Auction

• 13:00 CHN October Data Dump

  • Fixed Asset Investment: -0.8% ytd/y forecast vs -0.5% ytd/y in September

  • Industrial Production: +5.5% p.a. vs +6.5% p.a. in September

  • Retail Sales: +2.8% p.a. vs +3.0% p.a. in September

  • Unemployment Rate: Forecast 5.2% vs 5.2% in October

Saturday

• Tentative due to govt shutdown – USA October Core Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Tentative due to govt shutdown – USA October Retail Sales

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +18.4% Lake Resources (LKE) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +17.5% American West Metals (AW1) – Continued positive response to 11-Nov American West Expands US Investor Engagement, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +15.0% St George Mining (SGQ) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +11.9% Locksley Resources (LKY) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +10.3% Decidr AI Industries (DAI) – No news, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +10.0% G50 Corp (G50) – G50 to Present at Morgan Stanley Symposium, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.3% Wildcat Resources (WC8) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +9.2% Mineral Resources (MIN) – MinRes and POSCO Holdings to form lithium partnership, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +8.8% Strickland Metals (STK) – Exceptional Gold Intercepts at Gradina, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.8% Dateline Resources (DTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +8.3% Felix Gold (FXG) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.1% Nova Minerals (NVA) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +6.9% GR Engineering Services (GNG) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.5% EQ Resources (EQR) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +6.0% Liontown Resources (LTR) – No news, general strength across the broader Lithium sector today.

• +6.0% Metallium (MTM) – No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +5.5% Fineos Corp. Holdings (FCL) – No news, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +5.1% European Lithium (EUR) – EURO Listed Options Underwriting Agreement Executed.

• +5.1% Humm Group (HUM) – CEO Address to Annual General Meeting.

• +4.7% Smart Parking (SPZ) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -13.1% Life360 (360) – Continued negative response to 11-Nov Q3 2025 Investor Presentation and Life360 to Acquire Nativo.

• -12.0% Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) – Corporate Presentation - Noosa Mining Investor Conference.

• -9.0% Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL) – No news, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility.

• -9.0% Findi (FND) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, one of the most Featured (highest conviction) stocks in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -8.3% Gorilla Gold Mines (GG8) – No news.

• -7.6% Nyrada (NYR) – AGM Presentation.

• -7.5% Aristocrat Leisure (ALL) – FY25 Investor Presentation, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Life360 Inc (360)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $52.50 from $47.20

• Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $55.50 from $50.52

• Retained at buy at Jefferies; Price Target: $53.00 from $50.00

• Retained at overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $58.00

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $51.00 from $45.00

Austral Resources Australia (AR1)

• Initiated at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.20

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $44.90

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $11.00

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.50 from $10.75

• Downgraded to underweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.00 from $10.60

• Upgraded to hold from lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $11.00

Bega Cheese (BGA)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80 from $6.60

Breville Group (BRG)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Morgans; Price Target: $36.05

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)

• Retained at underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $143.87 from $143.53

• Retained at underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $127.00 from $124.00

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $106.00

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $144.80

• Retained at sell at Morgans; Price Target: $96.07 from $98.90

• Retained at sell at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $105.00

Carma (CMA)

• Initiated at positive at E&P; Price Target: $3.00

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $14.00

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Upgraded to neutral from underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $3.60

Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $16.00

Generation Development Group (GDG)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.50

Gemlife Communities Group (GLF)

• Initiated at buy at Bank of America; Price Target: $5.80

GPT Group (GPT)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Bank of America; Price Target: $5.60 from $4.90

Ingenia Communities Group (INA)

• Initiated at neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $5.90

Inghams Group (ING)

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.00

Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $11.80

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.80

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $48.00

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $28.75 from $23.60

Megaport (MP1)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $16.30

• Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $17.90 from $15.10

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $20.00 from $15.00

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $16.70 from $14.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.50

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $15.70

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $150.00

NexGen Energy (Canada) (NXG)

• Downgraded to hold from speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $13.05 from $13.55

Pro Medicus (PME)

• Upgraded to buy from hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $320.00

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Upgraded to buy from neutral at Bank of America; Price Target: $4.65 from $4.20

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $4.00

SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $3.80 from $3.15

Superloop (SLC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.65

Smart Parking (SPZ)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.50

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.40 from $5.50

Wildcat Resources (WC8)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.50

Scans