ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 12th November

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, November 12. We’re excited to trial this new format. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. Today's live blog will wrap up at 2:00 pm AEDT. Be sure to refresh manually for the latest updates — and let us know how we can make it even better.

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ASX 200 flat but resources looking strong

[2:30 pm] That's all for today. A relatively uneventful session at the Index level, with the ASX 200 currently up 0.09%.

• Tech sector continues to unravel, with XIJ now down ~16.7% from its 19-Sep record high. Wisetech, Xero and NextDC are down -47%, -13.0% and -11.5% respectively year-to-date, though some of this weakness is self-inflicted (WTC leadership, insider trading allegations and a massive acquisition, XRO also underweight a big loss making acquisition).

• Materials one a three-day win streak, up 3.7%. Lot of names like BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, South32 etc. starting to take shape/attempting to move out. Copper stocks mostly back at highs as copper prices return to US$5.1/lb, lithium stocks continue the V-shape move backed by the MinRes lithium asset selldown (at a massive premium vs. consensus). Can't help but feel a bit bullish about the whole resource/commodity complex.

• Not much action elsewhere, XDJ (-0.98%) continues to dip despite a massive consumer confidence surprise on Tuesday. Either stocks have already priced in the optimism (or they don't believe in the data).

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Catapult Sports completes institutional raise

[1:56 pm] One of the ASX's big recent success stories, Catapult Sports, has finished part one of its share purchase plan (SPP), raising $13.3 million (at $6.68 a share) from a range of domestic and international institutional investors.

The sports data analytics company also plans on completing a non-underwritten SPP to raise a further $20 million.

CAT was trading down 1.14% today, and is now down more than 18% since it announced the raise back on 13 October. It is still up 69% year-to-date.

By Tom Stelzer

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Humm up following ASIC complaint

[1:25 pm] Buy now pay later provider Humm is trading higher today after a senior manager filed a complaint with ASIC over revision requests made by Humm chairman Andrew Abercrombie to its September trading update.

The complaint said these revisions were "deliberately misleading" and raised issues around conflicts of interest. Abercrombie had been leading a bid to take the company private in a $286 million deal.

Humm is now up 6.78% today, presumably as this revelation dents the takeover's chances.

By Tom Stelzer

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Analysts' take on Megaport

[12:48 pm] Analysts seem very bullish on Megaport after its $200 million placement at $14.30 per share to fund the acquisition of Latitude.sh and accelerate its expansion into India.

• JPMorgan upgraded to Overweight, raised target from $14.50 to $16.70. Acquisition boosts long-term growth, NRR improvement validates turnaround, and expansion into AI/compute aligns with industry trends.

• Jefferies upgraded to Buy, raised target from $15.00 to $20.00. Deal offers cross-sell and synergy potential, core metrics improving, AI-aligned strategy, and accretive acquisition multiples relative to peers.

• RBC Capital Markets maintained Outperform, target $18.00. Execution risk and rising capital intensity flagged, with integration structure details still lacking for full confidence.

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MinRes business update call

[12:15 pm] MinRes just wrapped up its call regarding this morning's lithium/POSCO transaction.

• POSCO transaction expected to complete in 1H26, subject to regulatory approvals, with over $1bn in after-tax proceeds earmarked for debt repayment.

• Tax liability on the POSCO deal, if applicable, will be payable in FY27.

• No major new lithium JV projects planned. Mt Marion and Wodgina operations to continue unchanged, though a small float plant at Mt Marion may be installed depending on market conditions.

• Onslow Iron production reached 35m tonnes in October 2025, with further organic growth expected over the next 9–10 months.

• Bald Hill remains in care and maintenance. Gross debt expected to reduce with at least one bond retired post-POSCO proceeds, and potential for expanded POSCO partnerships under consideration.

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Analysts' take on Life360

[11:52 am] Analysts remain positive on Life360 despite the sharp two-day selloff.

• RBC Capital Markets retained Outperform, raised target from $45.00 to $51.00. Result beat, conversion sharply improved, guidance lifted, though MAU growth lagged expectations.

• Goldman Sachs retained Buy, raised target from $50.52 to $55.50. Advertising revenue ramp highlighted, guidance uplift supported, US MAU miss attributed to timing/demographics, early traction from pet tracker encouraging.

• JPMorgan retained Overweight, target $58.00. Slower MAU growth seen as marketing trade-off, monetisation per user strong, Nativo expected to transform ad revenue, US MAU miss didn’t change mid-term bullish outlook.

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Megaport fades early gains

[11:32 am] Interesting to see Megaport open ~10% higher despite raising $200 million at $14.30 per share (6.5% discount to last close). Those gains proved extremely short-lived, with the stock fading back to breakeven by ~10:30 am and now down 3.7%.

Megaport intraday chart (Source: TradingView)

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Record high manufacturing drives business turnover growth

[11:29 am] Monthly business turnover rose 2.2% in September, according to the ABS.

• Manufacturing division rose 7%, the highest growth on record and the main driver of overall turnover

• Primary metal product manufacturing was the main contributor to the rise in manufacturing turnover. It grew by 19.7% and was boosted by a rise in non-monetary gold exports

• International demand also drove rises in turnover for iron ore and lithium miners resulting in in a 4.0% increase for the Mining division

Source: ABS

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Life360 down as much as 20% in two days

[11:00 am] Life360 dipped as much as 15% in early trade, bringing its two-day decline to 20%.

Quite surprised by the magnitude of the selloff. Life360 announced its 3Q25 results on Tuesday, which broadly beat market expectations, alongside a full-year guidance upgrade.

• Q3 revenue up 34% to $124.5m vs. $119.8m ests (3.9% beat)

• Q3 adjusted EBITDA up 174% to $24.5m vs. $17.8m ests (37.6% beat)

• Quarter-end cash and cash equivalents of $457.2m, increase primarily the result of capital raised from the issuance of June 2025 convertible notes

• Q3 global MAU net additions of 3.7 million, lifting total MAUs up 19% to 91.6 million

• 2025 revenue guidance upgraded to $474-485m vs. prior guidance of $462-482m (1.6% upgrade at the midpoint, also 0.8% ahead of $475.9m ests)

• 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance upgraded to $84-88m vs. prior $72-82m (11.7% upgrade and 8.2% above $79.5m ests)

RBC Capital Markets analyst Wei-Weng Chen attributed the weakness to the Nativo acquisition and/or softer than expected operational metrics with MAU growth and net adds below market.

More broadly speaking, plenty of high-flying software names in the midst of a pullback (think TNE, PME, QOR etc.).

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ASX 200 slightly higher

[10:56 am] ASX 200 currently up 0.17%, relatively quiet and rangebound open. Another strong session for Materials (up 4.7% in the last five sessions) and Energy (on a five-day win streak up 5.2%).

Breath is a little mixed, with 60% of constituents trading higher. Nasdaq weakness weighing on local tech stocks, although Utilities and Real Estate surprisingly weak despite Dow strength.

ASX 200 sectors (Source: Market Index)

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CBA edges lower

[10:28 am] CBA is struggling to bounce despite suffering a 6.5% selloff on Tuesday.

CBA reported a 1Q26 trading update, with numbers mostly in-line with market expectations. Though UBS analysts flagged that "rising costs and CET1 decline raise question marks on a stock seemingly priced to perfection."

The 6.5% selloff marks CBA's worst one-day move since 17 November 2021, where the stock dipped 8.0%.

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:15 am] MinRes ripping higher on its partial lithium divestment, Flight Centre also tracking higher on FY26 guidance at the AGM and Megaport bucking the cap raise headwind (6.5% discount but company says it was strongly supported).

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MinRes' bullish divestment

[10:03 am] "The POSCO deal unlocks clear value and reduces gearing for MinRes while leaving its core cash engine untouched," RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker wrote in a note this morning.

"The POSCO deal validates the quality of MinRes’ lithium assets, locks in a premium valuation, strengthens the balance sheet and secures a downstream Korean link, all while preserving high-margin services income, in our view. The deal should also represent a positive read-through for the broader ASX lithium sector."

Peker says the consideration values MinRes' existing 50% stake in Wodgina and Mt Marion at approximately $3.9 billion vs. consensus of just $2.7 billion, so a massive premium.

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Inghams issues FY26 trading update

[9:54 am] A pretty loaded announcement from Inghams, featuring comments about its organisation restructure, sales, cost and FY26 guidance.

For context, Inghams suffered a 20.2% selloff on the day of its FY25 result (25 Aug), which flagged a broad revenue, NPAT and dividend miss. This was driven by a lower-margin mix, weaker wholesale pricing and soft retail demand. FY26 guidance was also a miss, with expectations for a year-on-year earnings decline and heavy reliance on a second-half recovery.

The key highlights from today's announcement include:

• Organisational restructure expected to deliver $8-10m in annualised savings as part of broader$60-80m cost-out program across labour, procurement, and site operations

• Core poultry volumes stabilising vs. FY25 exit, with strong growth in Australian non-Woolworths retail (+16.5%) and QSR (+8.6%), net selling price/kg up +0.9% vs pcp

• Australian wholesale margins up ~39% versus FY25, supporting revenue resilience despite flat overall group performance

• Short-term headwinds from higher egg costs, feed conversion, and operational inefficiencies being addressed, with improvements expected in 2H26

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed: Underlying EBITDA $215-230m, H1 underlying EBITDA ~$80m, with earnings heavily weighted to H2 and revised capex $70-90m

Company page: Inghams (ING)

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DigiCo reaffirms FY26 guidance

[9:42 am] DigiCo reaffirmed its FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance of $120-125 million at its AGM, also reaffirmed:

• FY26 growth capex of $160-180m

• Dividend of 12 cents per share

• Group billed IT capacity expected to reach at least 85MW by July 2026

• Known contracted billings expected to reach annualised run-rate EBITDA of at least $180m from July 2026

Company page: DigiCo (DGT)

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RBC take on China lithium royalty reforms

[9:39 am] China’s Ministry of Natural Resources has introduced a significant reform to lithium royalties, applying the “higher-value principle” to CATL’s Jiangxi lepidolite mine. The new framework moves royalties from the previous 2-3% benchmark to 7% of sales revenue, based on actual market prices.

In addition, environmental fees and compliance bonds have increased, lifting the overall cost structure for domestic lepidolite production. The reform is part of Beijing’s broader policy shift toward regulatory compliance, quality control, and anti-involution, signaling a move away from aggressive volume growth.

The financial impact of these reforms is substantial for marginal producers, according to RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker. The effective cost uplift of 1,000-1,500 yuan a tonne LCE (~US$20-30/t SC6) significantly reduces cash margins for Jiangxi lepidolite operations, which typically operate with pre-royalty margins of 1,000-3,000 yuan a tonne LCE.

"Importantly, the change is expected to supports margins and demand for established hard-rock producers (PLS, IGO, MIN)," notes Peker.

This move could benefit the lithium sector, more specifically:

• Favours large integrated spodumene and hard-rock producers due to higher efficiency and scale

• Supports global lithium price floor by tightening marginal supply and increasing structural cost

• Converter preference may shift toward spodumene, potentially boosting seaborne demand

• Market sentiment for spodumene prices improves due to formalised structural cost base

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Megaport completes institutional placement

[9:31 am] Megaport completed its $200 million institutional placement at $14.30 per share (6.5% discount to last close). The proceeds will be used to fund Megaport's acquisition of Latitude.sh and accelerating growth in India.

Commentary re investor demand: "The Placement was strongly supported by both Megaport’s existing shareholders and new investors, which saw bids received for substantially more than the Placement amount."

Company page: Megaport (MP1)

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Aristocrat Leisure 2025 results

[9:29 am] A small beat across the board plus a stronger-than-expected dividend. Aristocrat's recent history is dominated by a poor 1H25 result that drove the stock down around 10% in May. The shares are trading near those post-result levels, so could see some strength on these solid numbers.

• Revenue up 11.0% to $6.29bn vs. $6.24bn ests (0.9% beat)

• Revenue growth driven by market share gains across the portfolio and the inclusion of NeoGames for a full 12-month period

• EBITDA up 15.6% to $2.62bn vs. $2.60bn ests (1.1% beat)

• Normalised NPATA up 12.2% to $1.55bn vs. $1.54bn ests (0.6% beat)

• Total dividend up 19.2% to 93 cents per share vs. Citi ests of 81 cents (14.8% beat)

Outlook commentary:

• Expects to deliver year-on-year NPATA growth

• Continued revenue and market share growth from Aristocrat Gaming

• Continue market share growth from Product Madness

• Accelerating performance at Aristocrat Interactive, towards FY29 revenue target of $1 billion

• Committed to capital management strategy and ongoing on-market share buyback program

Company page: Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

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Flight Centre FY26 trading update

[9:18 am] Flight Centre says its experienced solid TTV growth over the first four months of FY26. The key updates from the AGM include:

• FY26 underlying PBT guidance $305-340m vs $316.8m ests (1.8% beat at the midpoint)

• Strong TTV growth in first four months driven by corporate segment and new account wins

• Leisure segment slower due to FY25 Q4 cyclical tailwinds, though US bookings from Australia showing initial recovery in October

• Productivity improvements with 7% TTV growth alongside a 5% reduction in FTE in Q1

• Comfortable with previous commentary about underlying PBT broadly in-line with prior year result ($119.7m)

Company page: Flight Centre (FLT)

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Shape Australia acquires Arden Group

[9:11 am] Shape Australia plans to acquire Arden Group for an upfront payment of $25 million plus two earn-out payments of $3.5 million for two years (total $7m).

Arden brings 23 years of experience in multi-site fitout and facilities maintenance across Australia. The acquisition is expected to be earnings accretive in its first full-year of ownership, with proforma FY26 forecast EBITDA of $6.2 million, delivering an anticipated EPS accretion of 10-14%.

At a glance, looks like a solid move that values the business at 4.0x FY26 EBITDA, for double digit EPS accretion.

Shape has been one of those industrial names that have been trending strongly this year, with shallow pullbacks, amid strong earnings growth and sector tailwinds. The stock is up 102% year-to-date.

Company page: Shape Australia (SHA)

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Global dividends hit a Q3 record of US$519 billion

[9:02 am] Global dividends rose 6.2% year-on-year in Q3 to US$518.7 billion, a record for the third quarter, according to the Capital Group. This marks four straight years of quarterly highs, driven largely by financials, which accounted for nearly half of the global increase (core +11%). Insurers led with +18.6%, followed by banks (+8%) and general financials (+16.1%).

• US payouts hit a record US$179.3bn (+5.7% core), extending a 15-year streak with only two quarterly declines (both during the pandemic).

• Europe grew 10.2% on a core basis, led by Poland and Spain, while France and the Netherlands lagged.

• Japan maintained rapid growth (+13%), Hong Kong surged (+15.4%) with no dividend cuts, and emerging markets rose 11.2% led by India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Mexico.

• China and the UK were flat to negative, while Australia was the weakest major market (Q3 -7.4% core, YTD -9%) due to mining and energy sector cuts.

• 88% of companies globally held or lifted dividends in Q3, with median growth of 5.7%.

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GQG Partners October FUM update

[9:00 am] GQG Partners reported a 2.0% month-on-month decline in funds under management to $163.7 billion in October. The update contained no further commentary, though the September update provides context for the ongoing outflows.

"Our sustained defensive positioning in our investment strategies led to relative underperformance in September and the third quarter. We continue to review and reevaluate our positioning daily, and we see the data consistently indicating both extended valuations in important parts of the market and an uncertain macro environment. As stewards of capital, we continue to believe that our portfolios are well-positioned to help protect client assets in the event of significant volatility."

GQG shares are down 28.4% year-to-date.

Company page: GQG Partners (GQG)

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MinRes sells 30% stake in lithium business to POSCO

[8:55 am] Mineral Resources has agreed to sell 30% of its lithium business as part of a new joint venture with South Korea's POSCO.

• POSCO will acquire 30% of MinRes’ operational lithium business (equivalent to an indirect 15% stake in each of Wodgina and Mt Marion) for US$765m (~A$1.2bn) cash

• For context, MinRes' lithium operations comprise 50% ownership of Wodgina and Mount Marion

• The deal values MinRes’ existing 50% stakes in the two mines at ~A$3.9bn

• MinRes will retain a 70% interest in the new incorporated joint venture, maintaining operational control and a strong long-term position.

• POSCO will receive spodumene concentrate in line with its ownership, aligning offtake rights with its investment.

• Completion is expected in 1H26, pending regulatory and merger clearances including FIRB approval.

Company page: Mineral Resources (MIN)

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AI sentiment takes a hit

[8:51 am] SoftBank’s Nvidia selldown (offloading its entire $5.83bn stake) grabbed headlines and was the key driver behind AI weakness overnight, but several other catalysts also weighed on sentiment.

• CoreWeave beat Q3 revenue but cut FY25 guidance, citing supply chain issues at data centre partners that delayed customer contract, Q4 capex guidance was halved, with spending pushed into 1Q26.

• JPMorgan downgraded CoreWeave to Neutral, flagging greater uncertainty in forecasting amid shifting revenue timing.

• Investor caution spread across megacap tech, with FT reporting a selloff in corporate bonds from Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle as AI spending concerns widened spreads to 0.78 pp from 0.5 pp in September.

• Anthropic reportedly tracking toward faster profitability than OpenAI, benefiting from a stronger corporate focus and diversified chip supply through Amazon and Google rather than Nvidia.

• Meta shares also came under pressure after reports that its top AI scientist, Yann LeCun, plans to depart to launch his own start-up.

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November weakness does not dent Q4 seasonality

[8:45 am] US equities broke a three-week winning streak with their sharpest weekly drop since early October, as sentiment wavered amid renewed macro and valuation concerns.

• The pullback disrupted optimism around strong seasonal trends, with November–December typically the best two-month stretch for equities.

• Goldman Sachs noted the weakness may not be unusual, as history shows markets often dip in early November after strong October gains, yet still end the year higher.

• On average, when the first week of November is down after a 10% rally since 1-Nov, the S&P ends the year up around 3%, suggesting limited downside.

• Flows remain supportive, with continued retail and corporate buying expected to underpin markets into year-end.

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Broad strength offsets tech weakness

[8:43 am] Tech was the only red S&P sector overnight, down 0.72%. This was largely driven by Nvidia (-2.9%), which dipped after Softbank sold its entire stake for $5.8 billion,

The Nasdaq finished 0.25% lower but the Dow rallied 1.18% to fresh all-time highs, with sectors like Healthcare, Energy, Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Materials all up more than 1.0%.

US market heatmap (Source: TradingView)

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Good morning!

[8:35 am] ASX 200 futures are up 18pts (+0.20%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher, closed near session highs

• Strong breadth, with the Equal-weight S&P outperforming the cap-weighted index by ~30 bps and Dow rallied 1.18% to all-time highs

• Nvidia pulled back on Softbank sale, AMD CEO highlights a massive medium-term growth runway and the US government shutdown is one step closer to ending

If you’re new to the blog – catch up quick via today’s Morning Wrap.