Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rises on strong energy, banks and tech. Uranium stocks surge begs the question: Is the low in?

Retraction and apology

In the latest Market Index weekend newsletter, we mistakenly referred to Golden Deeps’ (ASX: GED) announcement of drilling results from its Havilah Project in NSW as “one of the dodgiest announcements I’ve seen in a while.”

This was based on a mistaken conclusion being drawn from the announcement headline, which referenced an 80m mineralised zone, and contrasted this with an excerpt from the third bullet point in the announcement which stated that the (80m) mineralised intersection “included a 28m zone (from 85.8m) of more intense sulphide mineralisation”. This was clarified later in the announcement on page 3 which described that the more intense sulphide mineralisation occurs within a zone of “disseminated chalcopyrite-sphalerite-pyrite mineralisation which occurs from 85m to 166m (over 80m)”.

Reference is also made to the pXRF results being “notoriously inaccurate (hence the cautionary note)”. We acknowledge that the disclosure of XRF results in the announcement is in full compliance with ASX guidelines, and that the Cautionary Note provides the appropriate level of information to clarify the nature and accuracy of the XRF readings compared to laboratory results.

Both the use of “dodgiest” and the misrepresentation of the facts were errors. We now recognise that Golden Deeps’ announcement was accurate and fully compliant with ASX listing rules. We retract the article in its entirety and apologise unreservedly to Golden Deeps.

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 23.8 points higher, up 0.30%.

It wasn't pretty. We gave up the majority of the day's gains by the close, but a gain is a gain.

To be fair, those gains were relatively widely spread compared to recent sessions, with more than twice as many gainers than losers today and 9 out of the 11 major ASX sectors closing in the green.

Energy (for a change) was the best, led by a somewhat mysterious rally in ASX uranium stocks. Telcos, financials, and tech were also pretty good.

Once again bringing up the rear were local resources stocks. Check out today's ChartWatch for an explanation for the ongoing weakness in that sector...

As always, we have all of the big moves, broker responses, and key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap, so...

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 23.8 points higher at 8,011.9, 0.57% from its session high and just 0.3% from its low. Despite the somewhat soggy close in the benchmark, in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers beat decliners by a very solid 172 to 88.

Energy (XEJ) (+0.93%) was the best performing sector today. In part, it was likely buoyed by a small rally in key crude oil and coking coal futures contracts overnight, but a strong and widespread rally in uranium stocks also helped. No news on that theme though – uranium prices and US counterparts were generally down Monday. Dare I use the “Oversold” word? Given I think it’s a completely baseless technical term, I shall refrain!

ASX Uranium stocks enjoyed somewhat of a mystery rally today

Also doing well today were the Communication Services (XTJ) (+0.78%), Financials (XFJ) (+0.62%), and Information Technology (XIJ) (+0.58%). Nothing really specific in these, just some nice moves in some stocks that have some very nice charts.

Chrorus (ASX: CNU) and CAR Group (ASX: CAR) (XTJ), Commonwealth Bank (ASX: CBA) and Westpac (ASX: WBC) (XFJ), and Wisetech Global (ASX: WTC), Appen (ASX: APX), and Catapult Group International (ASX: CAT) (XIJ) are prime examples.

The best performers from the XTJ, XFJ, and XIJ today

I'll do the broken record thing and note that the Materials (XMJ) (-0.27%) sector was once again the worst performing sector today. It wasn't a huge fall, but I expect the regularity of falls in this sector is wearing a little thin for many investors (see ChartWatch below for technical analysis of Chinese equities).

ChartWatch

FTSE China A50 Index Futures

I’m going to go ditto today...

The last time we covered China A Shares was in ChartWatch in the Evening Wrap on 30 July.

In that update, I said:

Things appear to be going from bad to worse in Chinese equites. It is often said that a country’s stock market is the best barometer of its economy. If this is correct, then things aren’t looking very rosy for the Chinese economy…and make of that what you will for the Aussie economy and local resources stocks…

I don’t think I could have put it any better. I’m going to go ditto today. Nothing in the technicals has changed to suggest otherwise.

It’s also worth looking at the chart below of the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (HSMPI). The Chinese property sector is in the toilet. There’s no way to sugar coat this, and so far, Beijing has done very little to try and sort it out – or at least it’s fair to say that whatever they have done up to this point has had no discernible impact.

Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSMPI)

You know my investing philosophy. Rule No 1: Follow the Trend. Rule No 2, there is no rule number 2!

There are reports in the AFR today of new "hopes" of impending further stimulus measures being announced after this week's batch of weak economic data. And, whilst it’s possible in a world where anything is possible, that the most incredible stimulus measures for the Chinese property sector and/or economy are announced tomorrow, present trends don’t augur well for the next two charts of the XJR and XEJ.

I note that the constituents of these sectors have been stalwarts of my daily ChartWatch Scans Downtrends lists…😭

S&P/ASX 200 Resources Index (XJR) chart

S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (XEJ) chart

Economy

Today

• 10:30 AUS Westpac Consumer Sentiment

  • +0% actual vs +% forecast vs +% MONTH

• 11:30 NAB Business Confidence (+1.0 previous)

  • +0% actual vs +% forecast vs +% MONTH

Later this week

Wednesday

• 22:30 USA Core CPI August (+0.2% m/m to +3.1% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% to +3.2% p.a. in July)

Thursday

• 22:15 EUR ECB Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement (-0.50% forecast to 4.25%)

• 22::30 USA Core PPI August (+0.2% m/m to +2.4% p.a. forecast vs +0.2% to +2.4% p.a. in July)

Saturday

• 00:00 USA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment August (68.4 forecast vs 67.9 July)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +12.0% Duratec (DUR) - Significant Contract Awards Secured, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +11.6% Lotus Resources (LOT) - Thickest continuous mineralisation at Letlhakane, but also a broader rally in ASX uranium stocks

• +10.0% Aurelia Metals (AMI) - Change of Director's Interest Notice - Quinn (purchase), also modest bounce in high grade copper futures overnight

• +9.7% Anteris Technologies (AVR) - No news, continuation rally from yesterday's bounce

• +7.8% Meteoric Resources (MEI) - Investor Presentation - September 2024

• +7.6% Appen (APX) - Change of Director's Interest Notice - Ms Lynn Mickleburgh (purchase), rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +6.7% Ridley Corporation (RIC) - Several directors move notices (electing to receive shares in lieu of director's fees), rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend, long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +6.3% Predictive Discovery (PDI) - Precious Metals Summit Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +5.9% Paladin Energy (PDN) - No news, ditto ASX uranium

• +4.6% Bannerman Energy (BMN) - No news, ditto ASX uranium

• +4.5% Boss Energy (BOE) - No news, ditto ASX uranium

• +4.2% Deep Yellow (DYL) - No news, ditto ASX uranium

Trading lower

• -10.7% Steadfast Group (SDF) - Response to ABC Article 9 September 2024

• -9.8% Sovereign Metals (SVM) - Response to ASX Price Query

• -8.1% Life360 (360) - SEC Form 4

• -7.5% Wildcat Resources (WC8) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends 🔎📈

• -7.2% SG Fleet Group (SGF) - Ex-dividend $0.2433 fully franked

Broker Notes

• Amaero International (3DA)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.60

• ARN Media (A1N)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.46

• Adore Beauty Group (ABY)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $1.50

• Australian Clinical Labs (ACL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $3.60

• Adacel Technologies (ADA)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.70 from $0.65

• Ansell (ANN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $32.50

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $27.50

• APA Group (APA)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.23 from $8.47

• ARB Corporation (ARB)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $48.00

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $40.50

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $46.00

• Bellevue Gold (BGL)

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $1.45 from $2.25

• Car Group (CAR)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $35.40

• City Chic Collective (CCX)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $0.25

• Charter Hall Group (CHC)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $15.80

• Cooper Energy (COE)

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $0.23

• Cochlear (COH)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $255.00

• Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR)

  • Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.93

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.81

• CSL (CSL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $345.00

• Domain Australia (DHG)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.20

• Ebos Group (EBO)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $33.00

• Fineos Corporation (FCL)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.11

• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH)

  • Downgraded to sell from neutral at Citi; Price Target: NZ$33.50 from NZ$28.75

• Genmin (GEN)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.09 from $0.48

• Healius (HLS)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $1.50

• Impedimed (IPD)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.09 from $0.14

• Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $19.50

• Kogan.Com (KGN)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $4.20

• Lovisa (LOV)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $32.16

• Nanosonics (NAN)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $3.15

• Nine Entertainment (NEC)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.24

• Northern Star Resources (NST)

  • Initiated at add at Morgans; Price Target: $16.90

• News Corporation (NWS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.00

• OOH!Media (OML)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.56

• Pro Medicus (PME)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $100.00

• Premier Investments (PMV)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $37.00 from $35.00

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $36.00

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $33.00 from $33.40

  • Retained at neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $29.80 from $30.80

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $33.50 from $31.20

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $39.50

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $33.00 from $31.00

• REA Group (REA)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $229.00

• Ramsay Health Care (RHC)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $44.00

• Resmed Inc (RMD)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $34.00

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $39.00 from $34.40

• S2 Resources (S2R)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.10 from $0.24

• Steadfast Group (SDF)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.50

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.80

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.70

• Seek (SEK)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $25.00

• Stockland (SGP)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $5.30

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.30

• Sonic Healthcare (SHL)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $27.00

• Sigma Healthcare (SIG)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $1.30

• Seven West Media (SWM)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.14

• Southern Cross Media Group (SXL)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.55

• Telstra Group (TLS)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.30

• TPG Telecom (TPG)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.40

• Temple & Webster Group (TPW)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $30.40

  • Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $25.80

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $26.50

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $30.00

• Wisetech Global (WTC)

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $104.00

Scans