Evening Wrap: ASX 200 relinquishes early gain as sellers sweep into major tech, consumer stocks, WES, JBH, WTC and XRO hit

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 3.6 points lower, down 0.04%.

The Gold Sub-Index was the best performing sector today – jumping over 3% as both gold and silver prices bounced overnight. Investors are betting the pullback is over. Resources more broadly were higher as investors also waded back into selected critical minerals and precious metals stocks, but heading the other way (fast) were technology and consumer discretionary stocks – Wisetech Global (WTC), Xero (XRO), Wesfarmers (WES), and JB Hi-Fi (JBH) all suffered sizable losses.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 3.6 points lower at 8,881.9, 0.69% from its session high and smack–bang on its session low. Despite the lacklustre performance in the benchmark (too generous!?), in the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers managed to beat decliners by a modest 151 to 117.

For the week, the XJO finished down 157.1 points or 1.52% lower, 2.27% from its intraweek high and smack bang on its intraweek low. It’s now 233.3 points or 2.63% from its all-time high of 9115.2 set on 21-Oct.

Fund flows: Remember when?

Pretty straight forward today, both in terms of fund flows across sector, and more broadly for the ASX 200 (as explained in detail in ChartWatch below).

Hey, remember when you used to read those other market wraps which simply said, “Blah was up blah per cent today” and “Blah was down blah per cent”? You know, the one’s devoid of any insights into why stuff was happening? 🤔

Hopefully you’ll agree our Evening Wrap goes just a little further… 😉

The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (+3.3%) was the best performing sector today – gold and silver prices bounced overnight, potentially solidifying their respective lows set on Tuesday. That’s simple enough, it’s worth reading that technical analysis to understand why some money flowed back into the sector today (i.e., likely betting the pullback is done).

But outside of gold, the fund flows were largely as they’ve been for many weeks now. We have "target sectors", like Resources (XJR) (+0.4%) where the money is flowing into, and we have "funding sectors", like Information Technology (XIJ) (-0.5%) and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-1.7%) where the money is flowing out of.

More broadly, one could also possibly say there's a bit of "High PE to low PE rotation" going on.

In classic High PE tech, ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrend Scans List regulars Wisetech Global (WTC) (-1.8%) and Xero (XRO) (-1.0%) led the way. In also-often-eye-wateringly-High-PE discretionary, two stocks that were regulars in the Uptrends Scan Lists until give-or-take September – are increasingly finding themselves on the naughty list: JB HI-FI (JBH) (-3.4%), and Wesfarmers (WES) (-2.5%).

Lovisa Holdings (LOV) (-4.8%) is another that is threatening its long term trend, and Premier Investments (PMV) (-2.7%) is a notable double-downtrend and Downtrends Scan List constituent (you probably have my trend ribbons – it's worth check these charts out!).

Hey, if you don’t have my trend ribbons, and you’d like to add them to your Trading View charts (that’s the only place I’m sharing them), then catch the link to the request form in the description of this week’s ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar recording 📺.

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Sometimes stuff just makes sense. Today was one of those days. Many might have been confused as to how a +0.6% / 58-point gain in our benchmark index could somehow evaporate and turn into a 4-point loss by the close.

Not us! We know better! 🧐

Firstly, Old Tin Pot!

Secondly, today’s steady and deliberate supply-side attack – greedily soaking up the cash from the buy the dippers this morning – is consistent with the price action and candles since last week’s all-time high:

1. Lower peaks and lower troughs

2. A predominance of supply-side candles (i.e., black-bodied and or upward pointing shadows)

Indeed, the intraday chart above… that blue shaded line meandering from the top left to the bottom right – is exactly how an upward pointing shadow is created.

Volume was average – but up from the last couple of sessions. So, a bit of demand got whacked by a bit of supply – just the supply was substantially more motivated! Demand got off to a good start, but either they then realised they're too early and backed off – or they were completely exhausted... no... demand... left!

Can I do a "thirdly" here? Thirdly, the short term trend ribbon. The short term trend ribbon, once breached to the downside, tends to act as a zone of dynamic supply. It’s signifies a zone in price where the supply-side is likely to become active and motivated – it where we'd expect the exact price action that eventuated today.

The top of today's upward pointing shadow sits smack-bang at the bottom of the short term trend ribbon (amber zone). As I always say – upward pointing shadows point to where latent supply is lurking in the system.

(Big sigh! 😮‍💨).

The best thing about today’s trading session is that it’s the last one for the week 😉🍻!

8809-43 must hold. Or not only are things going to begin to look a little ugly for the OTP, but I will be at risk of losing complete interest here! 🤦

View: I remain comfortable at 2/3RP (2/3 Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 67%).

Key levels: 8809-43 is the next key level that the price ideally should not cross (a likely move to 1/2RP on a close below there); but ultimately, 8731 remains the critical go-no-go zone for the XJO bull market = ⚠️.

Where's the Nasdaq and Commodities Technical Analysis? 🤔

It's been moved to a dedicated series: ChartWatch Markets! 📈📈📈

In today's edition: There was a bit of a sense of inevitability to last night’s dip in US stocks. As good as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are, they were never going to go up forever. But is this just a run of the mill pullback, or is it the start of something more sinister?

Also, gold and silver are well into their own “pullbacks they had to have”. Many gold and silver bulls just assume it’s a matter of time before they start to rise again and prove their hold on forever theories! But the technicals suggest it may not so simple.

Economy

Today

• CHN October Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

  • Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 vs 49.6 forecast and 49.8 om September

  • Non-Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 vs 50.2 forecast and 50.0 in September

  • Observation: Worse than expected, particularly for manufacturing – falling further into contraction. Services showing barely any growth (readings above 50 indicate growth in a sector while readings below 50 indicate contraction)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +26.8% European Lithium (EUR) - Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +20.5% Resolution Minerals (RML) - Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Report 30 September 2025, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +20.2% Nova Minerals (NVA) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +14.4% Elevra Lithium (ELV) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +13.6% Saturn Metals (STN) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +11.7% Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN) - Continued positive response to 30-Oct September 2025 Quarterly Report, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +11.3% Decidr AI Industries (DAI) - Continued positive response to 30-Oct September 2025 Quarterly Business Review & Appendix 4C.

• +11.3% Metallium (MTM) - Becoming a substantial holder (Goldman Sachs +5%), general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today

• +11.2% Felix Gold (FXG) - Continued positive response to 30-Oct Multiple High-Grade Antimony Discoveries and Results and Quarterly Activities and Cashflow Reports.

• +11.1% Meteoric Resources (MEI) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +11.0% Unico Silver (USL) - No news since 30-Oct September 2025 Quarterly Activities & Cashflow Reports, general strength across the broader Silver sector today.

• +10.2% Larvotto Resources (LRV) - Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +9.8% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +9.1% Minerals 260 (MI6) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +8.3% Cobalt Blue Holdings (COB) - No news since 30-Oct Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +8.3% Lindian Resources (LIN) - No news since 30-Oct Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +8.0% Firefly Metals (FFM) - No news since 30-Oct Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.7% Elsight (ELS) - Change in substantial holding (Regal Funds Management 10.1% to 12.0%).

• +7.5% Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today.

• +7.5% Antipa Minerals (AZY) - Change in substantial holding (Copia Investment 8.5% to 9.7%), general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today,.

• +7.4% Black Cat Syndicate (BC8) - No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +7.4% Andean Silver (ASL) - No news since Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +5.9% Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) - No news, general strength across the broader Critical Minerals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -31.5% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) - MYX Scheme of Arrangement update on FIRB approval.

• -26.1% Polymetals Resources (POL) - Significant Incident Endeavor Mine and Reinstatement to Quotation.

• -11.5% Aeris Resources (AIS) - Aeris Equity Raise Presentation and Completion Of $80M Placement And Launch Of $10M SPP.

• -9.7% Steadfast Group (SDF) - 2025 AGM Addresses to Shareholders.

• -5.9% Droneshield (DRO) - No news.

Broker Moves

Abacus Group (ABG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.31

Ampol (ALD)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $30.00

Alkane Resources (ALK)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.45

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $75.00

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.33

APA Group (APA)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.68

Arena REIT (ARF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.01

Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.08

BETR Entertainment (BBT)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.42

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.80

Bhagwan Marine (BWN)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.80

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.55

Cuscal (CCL)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.78

Credit Clear (CCR)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.45 from $0.40

Challenger (CGF)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.00

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.01

Champion Iron (CIA)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $5.65 from $5.40

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.00

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.56

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20

Capricorn Metals (CMM)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $14.30 from $13.10

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10

Coles Group (COL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $24.30

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $25.40

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $25.30 from $25.50

• Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $21.00

• Retained at neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $21.30 from $21.80

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $26.10

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $26.80

• Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $22.90 from $23.45

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $24.00

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $25.00

COSOL (COS)

• Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.55 from $0.85

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.80 from $1.05

Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.41

Coronado Global Resources Inc (CRN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.33 from $0.27

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.26 from $0.24

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.38 from $0.32

Civmec (CVL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.70 from $1.40

Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.11

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.16

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.14

Endeavour Group (EDV)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.18

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.60

• Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $4.30

Freightways Group (FRW)

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $12.64 from $11.36

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.73

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.20

Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.69

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.26

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.78

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.41

Harmoney Corp (HMY)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.34 from $1.14

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.60 from $4.40

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $4.84

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.75

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.20 from $5.35

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $121.00 from $118.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $110.00 from $112.00

Jumbo Interactive (JIN)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $12.80 from $11.85

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $16.80

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.74

Lunnon Metals (LM8)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.80

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $180.00

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Retained at sell at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.60 from $9.35

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $21.20 from $22.60

• Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $13.70 from $13.50

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $17.00 from $18.50

Magellan Financial Group (MFG)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.65

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $57.00 from $49.00

• Retained at underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $40.00 from $36.50

• Retained at sell at Jarden; Price Target: $15.60 from $15.00

• Retained at underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $27.50 from $25.00

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $38.00 from $35.00

• Retained at trim at Morgans; Price Target: $40.70

Monadelphous Group (MND)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $22.00 from $19.50

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at hold at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.80

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.63

Nufarm (NUF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.55 from $3.08

NexGen Energy (Canada) (NXG)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $17.70 from $12.30

Objective Corporation (OCL)

• Initiated at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $25.00

Oneview Healthcare Plc (ONE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.25 from $0.34

Peninsula Energy (PEN)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.33

Pioneer Credit (PNC)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.85 from $0.80

Peter Warren Automotive Holdings (PWR)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.30

Qualitas (QAL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.98

Qube Holdings (QUB)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.50

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.47

ResMed Inc. (RMD)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $51.00

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $48.60

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.15

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.16

Smart Parking (SPZ)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.30

Servcorp (SRV)

• Initiated at buy at PAC Partners; Price Target: $10.03

Service Stream (SSM)

• Initiated at buy at UBS; Price Target: $2.80

Transurban Group (TCL)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $13.93

Universal Store Holdings (UNI)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $10.50

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.20

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $10.25 from $10.50

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.49

Vista Group International (VGL)

• Initiated at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.22

Ventia Services Group (VNT)

• Initiated at buy at UBS; Price Target: $6.23

Wesfarmers (WES)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $84.90 from $85.50

• Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $70.50 from $73.40

• Retained at underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $71.00 from $73.00

• Retained at lighten at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $77.00 from $78.00

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $90.00 from $92.00

Xero (XRO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $210.00

Scans