Evening Wrap: ASX 200 near 2-month low + Megaport, NextDC surge on Nvidia earnings

US debt ceiling jitters and weak commodity prices has pushed the ASX 200 to a fresh two-month low, Nvidia shares surge to all-time highs as AI boosts its earnings outlook, South Korea's Central Bank downgrades its full-year economic growth forecasts and a closer look at how local tech names performed on Thursday.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 sells off intraday (Source: Market Index)

Markets

Another heavy session with the ASX 200 closing at the lowest level since 31 March. The declines were headlined by heavyweight banks and miners including Commonwealth Bank (-2.2%), ANZ (-2.6%), Macquarie (-2.2%), BHP (-1.6%) and Fortescue (-3.2%). Overnight, Nvidia smashed earnings expectations and rallied 24% in after hours. Local tech names were bid up rather aggressively, notably Xero (+2.3%), NextDC (+4.4%), Altium (+4.3%) and Megaport (+12.8%). Overall, the index is breaking down and volatility is picking up. Buckle up.

Economy

South Korea's Central Bank held interest rates steady for a third consecutive meeting.

• The decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.50% was in-line with consensus expectations

• The Bank of Korea cut economic growth projections for 2023 to 1.4% from 1.6%

• It also kept its inflation projection unchanged at 3.5% for this year

Market Insights: AI is Coming

Nvidia posted an insane second quarter guidance, with US$11bn revenue vs. consensus expectations of US$7.2bn and earnings of US$5.8bn vs. US$3.0bn expected.

Short interest in the stock is at its lowest level in more than a year while its share price has more than doubled. It's one of the first major tech stocks since the pandemic bubble burst to set a fresh all-time high and also now the world's 6th largest company.

The stock posted its earnings after hours, which meant that the ASX would open just a few hours later. It also meant that traders, investors and analysts did not have that much time to analyse the news aka local tech stocks did not gap up that much at the open. Buying at the open would've proven quiet lucrative on Thursday.

Xero (ASX: XRO)

• Open: -1.1% to $107.57

• Close: +2.3% to $111.28

Xero intraday price chart (Source: Market Index)

NextDC (ASX: NXT)

• Open: +0.3% to $11.72

• Close: +4.4% to $12.19

NextDC intraday chart (Source: Market Index)

Megaport (ASX: MP1)

• Open: -1.2% to $5.64

• Close: +12.8% to $6.44

Megaport intraday chart (Source: Market Index)

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +21.9% Adbri (ABC) – Trading update

• +12.8% Megaport (MP1) – Nvidia Earnings

• +8.5% Appen (APX)

• +6.7% Costa Group (CGC) –  Trading update

• +4.3% NextDC (NXT) – Nvidia Earnings 

Trading lower

• -22.4% 29Metals (29M) – Continuation selloff, down 20% in previous three

• -7.9% Treasury Wine (TWE) - Earnings outlook

• Coal sector move: Terracom (-15.8%), Whitehaven (-4.5%), Coronado (-4.0%)

• Lithium sector move: Winsome (-8.1%), Global Lithium (-7.5%), Argosy (-4.3%)

• Gold sector move: Gold Road (-6.4%), Evolution Mining (-4.3%), Perseus (-4.4%)

Broker notes

A few standalone notes from Morgan Stanley:

Eagers Automotive (APE): Overweight with $15.00 target price

• “Rev growth, higher gross margins and PBT result implies higher 1H23 costs (in particular rising rates on inventory).”

• “...However, result robust with myriad of headwinds YTD + potential to stabilise / turning into June and 2H23.”

Webjet (WEB): Equal-weight with $6.50 target price

• “WEB reported FY23 results ahead of guidance and expectations driven by the B2B business.”

Macquarie on Australian Agriculture:

• “1H FY23 results saw lower commodity prices and delays in the planting season (Nth Am and Aust) flow through to a fall in earnings vs the pcp across the Ag names we cover.”

• “Retail fruit/veg prices in Australia for a sample of Costa products +5% on avg (median +7%) in May vs pcp as the country cycles supply impacts, however, a slowdown from April’s double-digit increases.”

• “Retail chicken prices in Australia are running at elevated levels compared to recent years (+9% on average in May vs the pcp) as suppliers negotiate price increases to reflect feed and general cost pressures.”

• “Relative preferences in Ag sector are NUF and GNC. NUF has good geographic diversity and is delivering strong growth in Seeds (1H EBIT +40%). GNC delivered a better-than-expected 1H result with growth options a key focus along capital return optionality with strong B/S.”

• “ELD is relatively cheap on 9.5x FY23e PE; however, it needs to deliver on 2H earnings/cash flow guidance and CEO succession uncertainty is likely to be ongoing.”

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