Evening Wrap: ASX 200 lower, retail stocks rally on upbeat Nick Scali result, Boral extends gains

The Index finishes a relatively quiet week 0.2% higher, UK's GDP accelerates in the June quarter, Nick Scali tops earnings expectations and lifts retail stocks, a few reporting season takeaways plus Macquarie notes for yesterday's results.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 lower in a relatively uneventful session (Source: Market Index)

Markets

The ASX 200 finished lower in a relatively quiet session. The S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index gave back almost all of its 2.3% rally from Thursday. While Discretionary stocks rallied after Nick Scali posted a resilient FY23 result with a massive dividend beat.

For the week, the Index rose 0.2% and continues to hover the 7,300 level. The dust is settling after the sharp 1.9% selloff that took place on 2-3 August. Still, the US market is in the midst of a pullback, bond yields continue to grind higher, energy prices are making a comeback and we're still working through our own earnings season.

Economy

UK’s GDP rose 0.4% in the June quarter, up from 0.2% in the previous quarter.

• Beat analyst expectations of 0.2%

• Q2 private consumption +0.7% vs. 0.0% expected

• Q2 business investment +3.4% vs. -0.3% expected

Latest news

Market Insights: Reporting Season Takeaways

#1 Building stocks are onto something

Boral (ASX: BLD) rallied 8.5% on Thursday after reporting an all-round beat and strong guidance. The stock is up another 4.6% today. What a powerful re-rate.

#2 Don't underestimate the re-rate

We're seeing the same situation unfold for AMP (ASX: AMP). It finished 4.6% higher on Thursday (from a session low of -6.4%). Its profits and revenue comfortably beat analyst expectations. The stock is up another 8.3% today.

#3 The market loves a beat

Retail has been a tough space but Nick Scali (ASX: NCK) has risen to the occasion. For FY23, it reported:

• Revenue growth of 15.1% to $507.7m (vs. $513m expected)

• Net profit up 26.1% to $101.1m (vs. $99m expected)

• Full-year dividend up 7.1% to 75.0 cents per share

Macquarie was expecting a full-year dividend of 60.6 cents per share (based on a note from 7 February 2023). So it was a dividend beat of almost 25%.

The stock opened 2.9% higher on Friday, and finished the session 13.3% higher.

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +17.95% Star Entertainment (SGR) – NSW Casino duty rates update

• +13.3% Nick Scali (NCK) – Earnings

• +11.0% Select Harvests (SHV)

• +10.7% Invictus Energy (IVZ) – Mukuyu-2 update

• +10.6% Syrah Resources (SYR)

• +8.3% AMP (AMP) – Earnings (Thu)

• +5.0% Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• +4.6% Boral (BLD) – Earnings (Thu)

• +4.2% Coronado Global (CRN) – Upgraded by Ord Minnett

• +3.9% Duratec (DUR)

• +2.6% Newscorp (NWS) – Earnings

• +2.4% Dicker Data (DDR) – Dividend update

• Retail sector move: Nick Scali (+13.3%), Cettire (+5.4%), Adairs (+5.3%), Temple & Webster (+2.9%), JB Hi-Fi (+2.5%), Super Retail Group (+2.3%), Kogan (+2.2%)

Trading lower

• -3.6% Bluescope Steel (BSL) – To invest $415m in Western Sydney

• -2.9% Kelly Partners Group (KPG) – Earnings

Broker notes

A few Goldman notes on yesterday’s results:

Boral (BLD) – Neutral with $4.55 target ($4.74 at 10 Aug close) 

• “FY23 NPAT of $143m was 23% ahead of GSe and 16% above the Visible Alpha consensus. EBIT was 16% ahead of expectations on a 3% volume beat, demonstrating strong operating leverage which is a clear deliverable for BLD.”

• “BLD guided to an FY24e EBIT of $270-300m assuming no significant shifts in demand or the pricing environment.”

• “Key risk over the short/medium term is that the lack of volume growth (BLD expecting flat volumes in FY24 vs. MSD growth in FY23). However, we note that BLD has said the market is rational at the moment and that BLD (as a significant participant) would remain disciplined.”

Downer (DOW) – Neutral with $4.10 target ($4.10 on 10 Aug close)

• “Since DOW’s investor day on 27 April, the stock had rallied ~25% into the result. We believe this reflected growing confidence around the new management team’s ability to drive cost out, improve risk management and grow margins to >4.5% in FY25.”

• “A marginally higher FY23 revenue base, a minor margin forecast change, and valuation roll forward lifts our 12-m TP to A$4.10 (from A$3.90).”

QBE Insurance (QBE) – Buy with $17.98 target ($15.60 at 10 Aug close)

• “Rate increases and premium growth continue to perform ahead of expectations with most of this driven by property with other classes more in lines with expectations.”

• “QBE flagged that claims inflation on average across the group was 7% in 2022 with inflation tracking in line with expectations over 1H23; perhaps coming off a little.”

Scans