Evening Wrap: ASX 200 ekes gain as copper price surge powers gains in SFR, CSC, BHP and RIO

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 8.5 points higher, up 0.10%.

The S&P/ASX 200 eked out a small gain today, powered by big resources companies like BHP, Rio Tinto, Woodside Energy and Santos, but scratch a little deeper – and you will find a few disturbing signs that not all is right with the Australian share market! ⚠️

But there was nothing bad going on in the ASX copper sector... It enjoyed its best day for many months 🚀.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 8.5 points higher at 8,773.0, 0.4% from its session low and 0.23% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by 109 to 162.

I had to check that market breadth twice. I didn't believe that we could be up today (more analysis of today's performance in ChartWatch below) and yet the market breadth in the XKO be so poor...

But it's true. Compare this to yesterday's 81.4 points or 0.93% decline in the XJO, when the XKO breadth was 76 up vs 186 down. The benchmark might have shown a narrow gain today – but make no mistake – when you have roughly 3 fallers for every 2 gainers, today was very much a down day for the Australian share market ⚠️.

Here's where the heavy lifting at index level occurred:

4x big resources, 3x big banks, CSL, and Wesfarmers. The Old Tin Pot at its best! 💪

The top 4 moves are arguably in response to underlying commodity price moves overnight (US copper popped 3.7% on Wednesday and is another 1.2% higher in Asian trade today, and both crude oil and natural gas prices are modestly higher too). The banks, well, they were down yesterday, right!?

Other interesting stuff today? 🤔 Copper more broadly, and there were some fantastic moves there. ChartWatch ASX Scans has been all over this sector for months now, with regular Features on Sandfire Resources (SFR) (+7.6%), Capstone Copper Corp (CSC) (+10.8%), Aeris Resources Ltd (AIS) (+10.5%), and Hot Chili Ltd (HCH) (+7.2%) among many others. In note that the sector ETF Global X Copper Miners ETF (WIRE) (+6.4%) has also been many times.

More generally though, it's super interesting to see the continued and building volatility at the small end. Face-ripping melt-ups - double digit gains in mining, biotech and tech plays... vs similar-sized beat downs for others that did the face-ripping last week... Hey nothing lasts forever! Check the Gainers and Losers lists below for details of the biggest moves.

Conclusion: Hot money is back and its sloshing around the small end of the market, no doubt driven by chat room and social media heroes and gurus. None of which are reading this Wrap right now... No we only attract the most responsible investors who allocate capital based on detailed research and diligent investment process! 😁

Enjoy it while it lasts, I say, because when the Old Tin Pot is boring... it's excruciating! But know your limits, most importantly:

1. Follow the trend, watch for signs it's beginning to bend

2. Manage your risk meticulously: both on a per trade and portfolio level (Don't go down with any ship!).

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

Before we address the Old Tin Pot, I'd like to inform long suffering readers of ChartWatch that the recording of yesterday's first *LIVE* Webinar has gone live to the Market Index YouTube page. Thanks to everyone who attended the session, I thoroughly enjoyed our chat, and I hope you learned something new about trend following and investing strategy more generally.

If you weren't able to make it, or you haven't registered yet, there's always next Wednesday at 12pm AEST. In the second instance, be sure to register using the link near the top of today's Wrap ☝️.

Now, to the matter of the Old Tin Pot...🤦

Hey, if you didn't know about the terrible market breadth, it wasn't a terrible session today at all. Hands up if you predicted US markets would be off again and we'd somehow buck the courage to log a gain? All of 8 points, but a gain nonetheless! 💪

Honestly, I was expecting something really bad to happen today – more in-line with the market breadth. I was sure that 8731 was going to go, and that we'd finish with a nasty black body / close on the session low candle.

The bottom line for me: Today's showing doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence – it was a mediocre display of indecision at best (i.e., lousy market breadth + candle was small white body with upward and downward pointing shadows = the demand and supply-sides were largely at equilibrium today).

In the context of the broader short term price action (i.e., lower peaks and lower troughs ) and candles (i.e., arguably predominantly supply-side in nature), I'm going to go with: Supply-side still has the upper hand.

Everything we've said here over the last few sessions remains intact:

• 8888 is the critical point of supply, below it we remain vulnerable to growing supply-side control; above it, we're very likely going to have a crack at new all-time highs.

• 8731-38 is the critical zone of demand, above it we stand a chance at doing the good bits in the last point; below it and the short term trend is unequivocally over, and we're then likely to probe deeper zones of demand (8616-8643) and possibly even the dynamic excess demand of the long term uptrend ribbon (presently 8415- 8560).

Where we are now – stuck in the middle – sees me content with my 2/3RP portfolio positioning (Risk Position = My personal max capital risk allocation).

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Thursday

• 22:30 USA August Core Durable Goods (-0.2% m/m vs July +1.0% m/m)

Friday

• 00:00 USA August Existing Home Sales (3.96 million forecast vs July 4.01 million)

• 22:30 USA August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

  • Price Index: +0.2% m/m vs July +0.3% m/m

  • Personal Income: +0.3% m/m vs July +0.4% m/m

  • Personal Spending: +0.5% m/m vs July +0.5% m/m

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +113.5% Finder Energy (FDR) – Transformational Farmin with TIMOR GAP, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +31.8% Trigg Minerals (TMG) – ACP Patent Claims - Exploration Target Defined, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +23.3% Cyprium Metals (CYM) – No news 🤔

• +19.6% Austin Engineering (ANG) – On-market share buy-back.

• +14.0% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – No news, today’s move is consistent with recent volatility

• +14.0% Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV) – Executive Leadership Appointments, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.7% Capstone Copper Corp. (CSC) – No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.7% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – No news, general strength across the broader Energy sector today

• +10.5% Hillgrove Resources (HGO) – No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today

• +10.5% Aeris Resources (AIS) – No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +9.7% AIC Mines (A1M) – No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +9.1% Develop Global (DVP) – Annual Report to shareholders, general strength across the broader Copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +7.6% Sandfire Resources (SFR) – No news, general strength across the broader Copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.2% Hot Chili (HCH) – Diamond Drilling Commences at La Verde Cu-Au Discovery, general strength across the broader Copper sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -26.7% Invictus Energy (IVZ) - Trading Halt Request.

• -13.8% Yandal Resources (YRL) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally due to Arrakis Gold Discovery Extended by 400m.

• -13.8% Locksley Resources (LKY) - CEO & COO Appointed to Fast Track US Mine to Market Strategy.

• -13.2% West Coast Silver (WCE) - Change in substantial holding (Alien Metals 9.3% from 11.7%).

• -10.2% Alkane Resources (ALK) - No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -8.1% Felix Gold (FXG) - No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -8.0% Caprice Resources (CRS) - No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -8.0% Race Oncology (RAC) - No news, pulled back after yesterday's sharp rally due to RC220 IND Approval from Korean MFDS.

• -8.0% EQT (EQT) - No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

Broker Moves

Acrow (ACF)

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.32

Amplitude Energy (AEL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.28 from $0.29

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $79.00

Arena REIT (ARF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.01

ASX (ASX)

• Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $54.05

Charter Hall Group (CHC)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $19.01 from $18.60

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.56 from $3.32

Charter Hall Long Wale REIT (CLW)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20 from $3.81

Centuria Capital Group (CNI)

• Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.04

Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR)

• Upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.41 from $4.12

Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.90

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Downgraded to underperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $3.55 from $4.30

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.20

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $4.00

Dexus Industria REIT (DXI)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.14 from $2.97

Dexus (DXS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.46 from $8.24

Evolution Mining (EVN)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $10.50 from $8.00

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.70 from $7.00

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $5.70 from $4.40

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $34.73

Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.69 from $2.58

GPT Group (GPT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.26 from $5.67

HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT (HCW)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.78

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.41 from $1.31

Infratil (IFT)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $12.91 from $12.47

IGO (IGO)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $5.65

ioneer (INR)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $0.40

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.25

KMD Brands (KMD)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $0.28 from $0.32

LendLease Group (LLC)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.74

Light & Wonder Inc. (LNW)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $176.00 from $178.00

Liontown Resources (LTR)

• Retained at sell at UBS; Price Target: $0.80

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.57

Mineral Resources (MIN)

• Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $43.20

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.80

National Storage REIT (NSR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.63

Northern Star Resources (NST)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $23.00 from $18.00

Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• Downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $2.25 from $2.30

PMET Resources Inc (PMT)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $0.65

Premier Investments (PMV)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $24.00

Perseus Mining (PRU)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $4.80 from $3.70

Qualitas (QAL)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.98

Region Group (RGN)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.47 from $2.32

Regal Partners (RPL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $4.10 from $3.55

Regis Resources (RRL)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $4.80 from $3.80

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.15 from $3.51

SiteMinder (SDR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.40 from $8.00

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $7.70

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $6.16 from $6.02

Symal Group (SYL)

• Initiated at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $2.40

Tuas (TUA)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $9.50

Vault Minerals (VAU)

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $0.70

Vicinity Centres (VCX)

• Upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.49 from $2.21

Scans