Evening Wrap: ASX 200 edges lower as energy and copper stocks carry the market, banks and healthcare drag

In a nutshell:

• Energy stocks hit a five-month high after Brent rallied 2% overnight, and the benchmark has traded flattish today at US$99.4 a barrel

• Materials also rallied off the back of further copper gains, with BHP (+3.2%) lifting both the sector and the broader ASX 200

• Everything else struggled against the elevated oil and yield backdrop, with financials, telcos, discretionary and healthcare all down more than 1%

• Carl is away this afternoon and back tomorrow
  
  

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let’s dive in!

• ASX 200 finished (0.11%) lower in a choppy session. An early 0.34% gain quickly faded to a (0.36%) decline before a late-session bid brought things off worst levels

• Energy closed at its highest since 8-Apr and now sits within 3% of the 7-Apr high. The sector, spanning oil and gas, coal and refiners, looks very strong amid this Hormuz deadlock. Brent is trading around breakeven today, at US$99.4, but with prices holding such elevated levels you can get pretty bullish on near-term sector earnings

• Materials also finished at session highs, largely off the back of further copper momentum, which lifted key names like BHP (+3.2%) and Rio Tinto (+1.9%). The copper ascent comes on poor production guidance from most major miners, a massive shift of refined metal into the US ahead of potential tariffs, and expectations of a demand pickup in China as its market enters a seasonal high for manufacturing activity. The small-to-mid end is also looking spicy, with Marimaca (+10.9%) rallying off drill results, Hot Chilli (+6.7%) at a two-month high, Kantra Copper (+4.6%) at the highest since May-24 and 29Metals (+2.7%) near a five-month high. Most charts are taking shape after a shallow pullback.

• Healthcare took a breather after the S&P 500 healthcare sector dipped 2.55% overnight, where Novartis (-10.8%) and its failed cholesterol trial weighed on peers like Amgen and Eli Lilly. Nothing to do with local names, but the read-across still hit the sector, with CSL down 2.0% to a two-week low of $171.21 (but still up ~28% since its FY26 result on 17-Aug)

• Financials are down 2.7% across the last two sessions and on the cusp of undercutting the 27-Aug low to hit a three-month low. Today featured a broad-based pullback for the banks, with CBA down 2.1% and now 3.3% lower YTD

• Discretionary is on a three-day skid, having traded lower in 18 of the last 24 sessions, and is down 14.5% since 6-Aug. Some very downbeat stuff. Tuesday's consumer confidence index fell 5.2% month-on-month to 84.4, wiping out the recent bounce to 88.9 that had marked the highest read since March 2026. UBS reckons a few more months of soft sentiment would slow real consumption growth over coming quarters, and could even see it "weaken sharply towards flat"

• Policy-sensitive Aussie 3-year yield up 1 bp to 4.82%, just shy of a fresh 15-year high. The 10-year is up 1 bp to 5.21%, also fractionally shy of a 15-year high

• Overall, the path of least resistance remains lower against an uncomfortable backdrop of high oil prices (on the cusp of US$100 Brent), elevated yields as per the 15-year highs above, and softening consumer data. That doesn't mean the market is void of opportunity, with the energy complex and select resources continuing to perform. But not so much for the rest of it, where consumer-facing and yield-sensitive sectors like discretionary, real estate and tech are bearing the brunt

TODAY

• CHN August Consumer Price Index (CPI) & August Producer Price Index (PPI)

• CPI: +0.8% p.a. as forecast vs +0.5% p.a. in July

• PPI: +3.8% p.a. vs +3.6% p.a. forecast vs +3.5% p.a. in July

• Reader: CPI up, but still totally benign, yet it's the PPI that should make you stop and think! 🤔 China is the production centre of the global economy... and this means that over the last 30-odd years it has exported its producer-level inflation. So, the fact that its PPI was up sharply in August, and worse than expected, is not great for the global inflation outlook! ⚠️

LATER THIS WEEK

THURSDAY

• 22:15 EUR European Central Bank (ECB) Main Financing Rate (+0.25% p.a. forecast to 2.65% p.a.)

• 22:30 USA August Core PPI (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in July)

FRIDAY

• 22:30 USA August Core CPI (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in July)