Evening Wrap: ASX 200 edges higher on WTC investor-day surge, uranium & coal strength, as bonds flag an RBA hike

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 15.5 points higher, up 0.18%.

Uranium and coal stocks were the clear stars of the day as the Energy (XEJ) (+0.8%) led a rather subdued performance on the ASX 200.

Reassuring words by management at Wisetech Global's (WTC) investor day helped it to a 4.5% gain on the day – the biggest among the majors.

No news for tech names Megaport (MP1) (-6.3%) and Block (XYZ) (-6.0%), or for real-estate manager HMC Capital (HMC) (-5.6%) – but these rate-sensitive sectors typically struggle when risk-free yields surge – and surge they did today 🚨.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 15.5 points higher at 8,595.2, roughly mid-range, 0.32% from its session high and 0.22% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by a slender 143 to 129 (Déjà vu? Indeed! Yesterday was 144 to 129!)

Fund flows: Bond yields... What a drag... 😭

You know it’s a snoozefest on the Australian share market when none of the major sectors rose or fell by more than 1%.

The slightly weaker than expected GDP data released today clearly wasn’t weak enough to dissuade bond traders to continue to factor out further RBA rate cuts / factor in the first RBA rate hike in the next cycle.

Yesterday, I showed you a chart of the 2-year Australian Government Bond yield, it rose another 5 bp to an eye watering 3.92% today (over 60 bp higher than its October low). For your reference, see the chart of the 10’s below.

This is scary stuff… 4.09% to 4.65% in a couple of months – forget the RBA, the market just hiked rates by more than 0.50%! And on the 2s, note they’re now trading over 30 bp above the current RBA cash rate of 3.60% – a pretty loud signal the market thinks the next move is a hike, not a cut 🚨.

Such moves in the bond market aren’t automatically stock bull market killers – there have been times when both risk-free yields and stocks rise sharply in unison – typically after a prior “a recession is coming” scare has been put aside. We’re not in that scenario by my reckoning, and in my experience, it means the move we’re seeing in the bond market is more likely to be a drag on stock prices.

In many instances, stocks compete with bonds for investment capital. Bonds are risk-free… they’re offering a short term yield of around 4% and a long term yield of around 4.7%.

Stocks are offering around the same average yield but are definitely not risk free! 😉

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Analysis

Another day, another candle, another piece of the demand-supply puzzle. 🧩

Don’t you just love technical analysis!? We never know what we’re going to get next, but we trust the answer lies within!

Our job is simply to:

Analyse = D > S? D < S? D = S?

Accept = It doesn’t matter what I think, it only matters thinks!

Act = MOTN the analysis suggests P ⬆️ or P⬇️ or P↔️. What does this mean with respect to +R, =R, or -R?

What information does today’s candle add to the ASX 200’s a.k.a. the Old Tin Pot’s demand-supply picture? 🤷

I must say “not a great deal”, because it’s just not very big and its volume is below average. It suggests the demand- and supply-sides of the market weren’t motivated enough to do much of anything today. 🥱

Why?

Not a great deal is driving them to want to transact – we can conclude that they’re roughly satisfied with the general level of prices given all the fundamental information available to them.

If you have another, better conclusion, I’d like to hear it! 😉

But Carl!

I hear you say…

Yes, I can see that upward pointing shadow too – and it does play on my mind a little. Clearly there remains enough latent supply to balance out the general ebb and flow of demand that’s likely trickling in from the continuing positive US leads we’ve enjoyed for the last 7 trading sessions (see Nasdaq Composite chart).

Plus, the short term downtrend ribbon looms large over the current price action, and the initial “V-shaped” rally from 8383 is starting to resemble a “W”!

It kind of makes you wonder what would have happened if US stocks didn’t stage that amazing turnaround…🤔

Ditto on the stuff I said here yesterday, and not coincidentally, the day before (and before that!). I require confirmation the demand-side’s present stand, started at 8383, is more than a fluke – or that the supply-side remains in control of the OTP’s price and is ready to execute the next leg down of the current short term downtrend.

View

I remain comfortable at 1/3RP 🪣 (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit (Risk Position) for my investments in Australian stocks is 33%).

Key levels

8383 is the closest point of demand. A close below this price would confirm the new long term downtrend (i.e., that the bull market in ASX stocks is over! 🤯). The short term trend ribbon is the closest zone of supply (presently 8645-8700). In the absence of other confirming demand-side control signals, the ASX 200 must close back above this zone to demonstrate the demand-side is back in control.

If you missed today's bumper ChartWatch *LIVE* Webinar...

Economy

Today

• AUS September Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

  • Result: +0.4% q/q vs +0.7% q/q forecast and +0.7% q/q in June (revised up from +0.6% q/q)

  • Insights: September growth was weaker than forecast, but June's upward revision resulted in annual GDP growth of +2.1% p.a. – only slightly below +2.2% p.a. forecast and ahead of the RBA’s +2.1% p.a. 2026 forecast. Also, best annual GDP result in 2-years.

  • Expert Commentary: "In our view, the real laggard in the growth data is the consumer, who is clearly sensitive to rate changes, tax cuts and discount periods and this is still a concern for us that the consumer is hardly in a solid shape." — My Bui, Economist, AMP

Later this week

Thursday

• 02:00 USA November ISM Services PMI (52.0 forecast vs 52.4 in October)

• 11:30 AUS November Household Spending (+0.6% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in October)

Friday

• No major economic data releases scheduled for Friday.

Saturday

• 02:00 USA November Core PCE Price Index (+0.2% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in October)

  • Personal Income: (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in October)

  • Personal Spending: (+0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.6% m/m in October)

• 02:00 USA November Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (52.0 forecast vs 51.0 in October)

• 02:00 USA November Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +18.2% European Lithium (EUR) – Change in substantial holding for CLE, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +16.8% Predictive Discovery (PDI) – Superior Offer to acquire Predictive Discovery and Becoming a substantial holder (Citigroup Global Markets, 5.0%), rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +16.0% 4DMEDICAL (4DX) – 4DMedical secures US$10m CTVQ orders in Philips deal, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +15.1% Terracom (TER) – No news, general strength across the broader Coal sector today.

• +14.7% Investigator Resources (IVR) – Continued positive response to 02-Dec Investigator Rebrands to Reflect Silver Focus, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +12.1% Turaco Gold (TCG) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +11.7% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – No news, general strength across the broader Coal sector today.

• +9.3% Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +9.2% Polymetals Resources (POL) – Polymetals raises $34m for the Endeavor Silver Zinc Mine, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +8.7% Tivan (TVN) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.4% AIC Mines (A1M) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today.

• +7.1% Vaneck Bitcoin ETF (VBTC) – No news (Bitcoin rallied sharply overnight).

• +7.0% Artrya (AYA) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +7.0% Boss Energy (BOE) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +6.9% Meteoric Resources (MEI) – No news.

• +6.8% Bannerman Energy (BMN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +6.5% Aeris Resources (AIS) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +6.3% Bellevue Gold (BGL) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.3% Lake Resources (LKE) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +6.2% Rox Resources (RXL) – Rox Strengthens the Board, bounced perfectly from long term uptrend ribbon! 🔎📈

• +5.9% Peninsula Energy (PEN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +5.2% Paladin Energy (PDN) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

• +4.7% Deep Yellow (DYL) – No news, general strength across the broader Uranium sector today.

Trading lower

• –12.2% Robex Resources (RXR) – Receipt of Superior Proposal from Predictive Discovery.

• –6.3% Megaport (MP1) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short-term downtrend and long-term trend is transitioning from up to down 🔎📉

• –6.0% Block (XYZ) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short-term downtrend and long-term trend is transitioning from up to down, a recent regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• –5.6% HMC Capital (HMC) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short- and long-term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• –4.6% Collins Foods (CKF) – No news.

Broker Moves

AUB Group (AUB)

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $38.85

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $37.80

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $37.40

Bellevue Gold (BGL)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $1.90 from $1.40

BHP Group (BHP)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $47.00

Beacon Lighting Group (BLX)

• Initiated at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.35

Bank of Queensland (BOQ)

• Retained at hold at CLSA; Price Target: $6.40 from $7.20

• Retained at sell at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $6.21 from $6.71

• Retained at underweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $6.10

Collins Foods (CKF)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $12.57 from $12.23

• Retained at outperform at CLSA; Price Target: $12.50 from $11.80

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $11.40 from $10.10

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $11.70 from $11.20

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $11.40

• Retained at accumulate at Morgans; Price Target: $12.40 from $12.20

• Downgraded to hold from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $10.50 from $9.50

• Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $12.70 from $11.70

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $13.10 from $9.75

Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

• Downgraded to underperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $8.35 from $15.80

FireFly Metals (FFM)

• Retained at neutral at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $1.60 from $1.70

Greatland Resources (GGP)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $10.25 from $9.00

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.50

Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $0.55 from $0.45

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.75 from $0.57

Newmont Corporation (NEM)

• Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $190.00

NexGen Energy (Canada) (NXG)

• Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $17.70

NEXTDC (NXT)

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $19.00

Paragon Care (PGC)

• Retained at buy at Blue Ocean Equities; Price Target: $0.57

• Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $0.59 from $0.61

Rio Tinto (RIO)

• Retained at overweight at Barrenjoey; Price Target: $136.00

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $130.00

South32 (S32)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $3.00

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $4.90

Santos (STO)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.50

The Lottery Corporation (TLC)

• Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.10 from $5.00

Titomic (TTT)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.50

Viridis Mining and Minerals (VMM)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.65

• Retained at speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $3.60

Woodside Energy Group (WDS)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $25.50

Scans