Evening Wrap: ASX 200 dips on Trump-Musk spat, but thawing trade tensions and rocketing silver price stokes miners

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 23.2 points lower, down 0.27%.

Aussie stocks were dragged lower by a combination of fears over the developing Trump vs Musk spat, but also due to the fact that Monday's non-trading day means there's 2-not-1 US trading sessions to contend with until they can again adjust their risk.

On a brighter note, thawing trade tensions and a big move up in the silver price helped ignite several mining and energy stocks, big and small.

To make sense of all the above, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite, S&P/ASX 200, and Silver in today's ChartWatch.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key upcoming economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 23.2 points lower at 8,515.7, 0.47% from its session high and smack–bang on its session low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a disturbing 75 to 191.

For the week, the XJO finished up 81 points or 0.96% higher, 1.36% from its intraweek high and 0.61% from its intraweek low.

An odd little day's trade ahead of a long weekend for most of us – there’s no trading on Monday. Some of today's "modest but convincing when you look at the breadth" loss was due to that fact fund managers won’t have an opportunity to adjust their risk for 2-not-1 US trading sessions, some of it was just the usual Friday malaise, and the rest was probably an adjustment in risk for another tent peg of volatility in the Trump vs the world saga – this time “vs Musk”.

There’s a thawing between “vs China” knocking around as well, with the President’s recent call with President Xi apparently going “very good”. There’s also been some dialling back of the narrative that China’s restrictions on rare earth and other critical minerals is going to assist local producers.

The combination is generally stronger major miners and energy plays (BHP Group (BHP) (+0.66%), Fortescue (FMG) (+1.0%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (2.2%), Woodside Energy (WDS) (+1.0%), Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (+3.6%)), at the expense of rare earth, critical minerals, and lithium stocks (Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-1.2%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-5.2%), Iluka Resources (ILU) (-3.8%)).

The rest of it was ebb and flow, with one major exception. Silver stocks went ballistic! 🚀

Check ChartWatch for the latest technicals on silver, but spoiler alert, they’re trading at fresh 12-year highs. The local silver cohort responded in kind with Silver Mines (SVL) (+18.2%), Unico Silver (USL) (+13.7%), Sun Silver (SS1) (+10.1%), and Andean Silver (ASL) (+5.3%) notable gainers. Platinum is also surging, and that helped Zimplats (ZIM) (+15.0%).

ChartWatch

NASDAQ Composite Index

Trump = Volatility 🧨 (click here for full size image)

That’s a bit of a problem. Well, it’s a problem if you’re cheering the Comp up, because if you’re cheering it any other direction, then it’s fantastic!

I am of course referring to that nasty supply-side candle from Thursday’s session. Engulfing supply-side candles are always a nasty sting in the tail for bull market optimists. “Engulfing” means the candle’s range completely engulfed the range of the prior candle. They usually tell us technical analysts that something is up…that something of a decent magnitude just occurred.

I also note the decent whack of upward pointing shadow in last night’s candle. It tells us the Comp actually kicked off pretty strong – but then supply came in, met the prevailing excess demand, exceeded it – and was motivated enough to accept progressively lower prices for most of the rest of the session.

The small downward pointing shadow is little consolation, I suggest.

The other disturbing aspect of Thursday’s proceedings is the demand-side was more than happy to get out of the way. The below average volume suggests that a below average amount of motivated supply (“motivated” because of the degree of price change) hit a below average amount of demand on the way down.

It smacks of risk aversion. The demand-side has lost some confidence.

But it will take more than the demand-side moving to the sidelines to reverse the prevailing short and long term uptrends – which are still very decent.

We need some confirmation tonight. Confirmation that the supply-side is growing in influence and control, and that the demand-side is increasingly retreating to the sidelines. That would be another decent-sized supply-side candle (i.e., black body and or upward pointing shadow).

Not that it matters, and I shouldn’t even mention it in a technical analysis write up…but a decent whack of last night’s Comp move was in Tesla (NYSE: TLSA). Looking through the rest of the FAANGS it was all pretty tame. So we could see a snap back to trend tonight assuming the Trump vs Musk thing has washed through the system.

Tesla (TLSA) chart (click here for full size image)

But that’s anyone’s guess…and as we unfortunately are all too aware: Trump = Volatility.

Trump = Volatility

Let’s not jump to any conclusions on one candle influenced substantially by one stock. As I said confirmation either way now is crucial. We’ll have it when we wake up tomorrow morning.

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

Today’s result was about par for the course – maybe better ⛳ (click here for full size image)

In keeping with the “not great but probably no reason to panic” takeaway I’ve proposed above, today’s candle for the XJO makes a great deal of sense. A minor adjustment in terms of the supply-side looking to pare back risk ahead of the weekend (and who knows what stupidity will arise from the Musk-Trump spat), while simultaneously, the demand-side went AWOL.

Given it is a Friday, and there’s an extra US trading session’s risk to consider (no trading on the ASX on Monday due to public holidays in Sydney and Melbourne) I suggest today’s result was about par for the course – maybe better ⛳.

Absolutely everything else adds up to very solid demand-side control. So, again, in the absence of a definitive confirming supply-side candle, I’m going to say there’s nothing to worry about here just yet.

We’ll get the next print on Tuesday, and that’s where we’ll pick up this discussion. Have a safe and wonderful long weekend if you’re lucky enough to be having one! 🏖️

Silver Futures (Front month, back-adjusted) COMEX

Is silver on the cusp of a multiyear breakout? 🤔 (click here for full size image)

I pushed today's silver analysis into a standalone article you can read here.

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 22:30 USA Non-Farm Employment Data May

  • Employment Change m/m: +130,000 forecast vs +177,000 in April

  • Average Hourly Earnings m/m: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.2% m/m in April)

  • Unemployment Rate: 4.2% forecast, unchanged from April

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +27.1% Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) – Growing momentum in metal and alloy sales and Refinance of Korean Development Bank corporate debt facility.

• +18.2% Silver Mines (SVL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today (silver prices probing 12-year highs after recent spike, see ChartWatch for more information), rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +15.0% Zimplats 10c US (ZIM) – No news, general strength across the broader Precious Metals sector today (platinum prices have also spiked! 🚀).

• +13.7% Unico Silver (USL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends.

• +12.1% Coronado Global Resources (CRN) – Continued positive response to 05-Jun Response to Media.

• +10.7% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +10.5% DUG Technology (DUG) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📈

• +10.1% Sun Silver (SS1) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +9.7% Antipa Minerals (AZY) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +7.3% Tyro Payments (TYR) – No news since 05-Jun CEO and Managing Director Resignation.

• +5.3% Andean Silver (ASL) – No news, general strength across the broader Silver sector today, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +5.0% EBR Systems (EBR) – First US commercial implants of WiSE CRT System completed.

• +3.6% Whitehaven Coal (WHC) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📈

• +3.5% Qantas Airways (QAN) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -14.1% Ora Banda Mining (OBM) – FY25 Guidance Update.

• -10.3% Minerals 260 (MI6) – No news, repelled perfectly from long term downtrend ribbon! 🔎📉

• -8.4% West African Resources (WAF) – Continued negative response to 04-Jun WAF to align with 2024 Burkina Faso Mining Code, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -7.7% Iperionx (IPX) – No news, pulled back after yesterday's sharp rally due to IperionX Awarded U.S. DoD SBIR Contract for up to US$99M.

• -7.4% Dateline Resources (DTR) – OTCQB Uplisting Approved.

• -7.3% Redox (RDX) – Response to ASX Price Query, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -7.0% Trigg Minerals (TMG) – No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -6.1% Nuix (NXL) – No news, fall is consistent with prevailing short and long term downtrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends list 🔎📉

• -5.8% Regis Resources (RRL) – No news, general weakness across the broader Gold sector today.

• -5.2% Droneshield (DRO) – No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -5.2% Pilbara Minerals (PLS) – No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

Broker Moves

The A2 Milk Company (A2M)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.90

Australian Agricultural Company (AAC)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.900

Adriatic Metals (ADT)

• Downgraded to hold from speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $5.50 from $4.55

Amotiv (AOV)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $10.90

Eagers Automotive (APE)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $20.35

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $45.40

Autosports Group (ASG)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.00

Bapcor (BAP)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.85

Betmakers Technology Group (BET)

• Upgraded to buy from speculative buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.230

Bega Cheese (BGA)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.00

Bubs Australia (BUB)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.155

Cobram Estate Olives (CBO)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.950

Cuscal Group (CCL)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.50 from $3.40

Cosol (COS)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.900 from $1.150

• Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.120 from $1.240

Elders (ELD)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $9.10

• Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $8.45 from $8.55

Fleetpartners Group (FPR)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $3.77

Graincorp (GNC)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.85

IDP Education (IEL)

• Upgraded to hold from underperform at Jefferies; Price Target: $3.50 from $9.50

Inghams Group (ING)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.60

Iperionx (IPX)

• Retained at speculative buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.25 from $5.90

McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $18.24

Megaport (MP1)

• Downgraded to sell from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $11.50

Noumi (NOU)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.245

Nufarm (NUF)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $3.45

Ora Banda Mining (OBM)

• Downgraded to hold from speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.200 from $1.250

Rural Funds Group (RFF)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.45

Select Harvests (SHV)

• Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $6.05

Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $9.06

Synlait Milk (SM1)

• Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.900

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX)

• Initiated at outperform at Wedbush Securities; Price Target: US$22.00

Toubani Resources (TRE)

• Retained at speculative buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.250 from $1.500

Whitehaven Coal (WHC)

• Retained at underperform at CLSA; Price Target: $4.45

• Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $7.70

• Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $5.50

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.20

Scans