IEL, DMP, TWE ratings and targets slashed after disappointing market updates, but one broker sees buy the dip opportunity
The ASX stocks enjoying the biggest upgrades, downgrades, and target price changes. What the major brokers loved, hated, and why.
Source: Shutterstock, Market Index
Mentioned
KEY POINTS
- IDP Education (IEL) was in the brokers’ sights after it warned of substantially lower placement and testing volumes. Several ratings downgrades followed, and some of the biggest price target cuts in recent memory. But one broker saw reason to buy the dip.
- Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (DMP) ongoing problems also came into focus as the company announced a new CEO at its Japan operations. Brokers cut DMP’s price target even further, and Jarden cut its rating on the company to Neutral from Overweight.
- Pizza was off the menu, but so was wine, as Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) also fell foul of the big brokers after updating the market on its California distribution agreements. Again, several big price target cuts and at least one rating downgrade flowed.
Welcome to this week's ASX Broker Moves – your most comprehensive source for recent changes in major broker ratings and target prices for the Australian stock market.
The tables below contain data on ratings upgrades, downgrades, and initiations, as well as the biggest target price changes among the broker research reports we’ve received in the last 5 trading days.
You will find the full list of daily broker moves in our Evening Wrap.
Rating UPGRADED
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Target Price | TP Upside% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Betmakers Technology Group (BET) | Ord Minnett | Buy | Speculative Buy | $0.23 | 119.0% |
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal-Weight | $35.90 | 3.4% |
IDP Education (IEL) | UBS | Buy | Neutral | $4.95 | 39.8% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Jefferies | Hold | Underperform | $3.50 | -1.1% |
Insignia Financial (IFL) | UBS | Buy | Neutral | $4.50 | 24.3% |
Judo Capital (JDO) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $1.75 | 15.9% |
Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | Hold | $8.70 | -6.0% |
Select Harvests (SHV) | CLSA | Outperform | Hold | $5.00 | 10.4% |
Select Harvests (SHV) | CLSA | Outperform | Hold | $5.00 | 10.4% |
WEB Travel Group (WEB) | Citi | Buy | Neutral | $6.60 | 30.7% |
Broker rating upgrades since last update. Target Price Upside/Downside (“TP Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on most recent session's close.
Broker Views Snippets - Upgrades
Morgan Stanley on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (ASX: FPH):
UPGRADED TO OVERWEIGHT ⬆️ FROM EQUAL-WEIGHT
“We see FPH as offering attractive medium-long term EPS growth, supported by solid revenue growth and margin expansion. While valuations are elevated, FPH compares favourably relative to the sector on a number of key financial metrics.”
Target raised to $35.90 from $34.00 ⬆️ (3.4% upside)
UBS on IDP Education (ASX: IEL):
UPGRADED TO BUY ⬆️ FROM NEUTRAL
“Uncertainty surrounding gov policy across all geographies continues to weigh on 2H25...[but] gearing does not appear at risk [and the valuation] does not look expensive - trading on a FY26E PE of 19x, while offering 3yr EPS CAGR +20% on what we consider (close to) bottom of the gov policy cycle / depressed earnings.”
Target cut to $4.95 from $12.00 ⬇️ (39.8% upside)
Citi on WEB Travel Group (ASX: WEB):
UPGRADED TO BUY ⬆️ FROM NEUTRAL
“The strong market share growth and expectation to double profit is hard to ignore...Ultimately however we see the growth as attractive and worth the risk/reward.”
Target raised to $6.60 from $5.50 ⬆️ (30.7% upside)
Rating DOWNGRADED
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Target Price | TP Upside% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adriatic Metals (ADT) | Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Speculative Buy | $5.50 | 4.2% |
Austal (ASB) | Bell Potter | Hold | Buy | $5.60 | -5.1% |
Brickworks (BKW) | CLSA | Hold | Outperform | $35.26 | 8.6% |
Brickworks (BKW) | Jarden | Neutral | Overweight | $32.30 | -0.6% |
Brickworks (BKW) | Ord Minnett | Hold | Accumulate | $34.90 | 7.5% |
Domino's Pizza (DMP) | Jarden | Neutral | Overweight | $37.00 | 71.1% |
Graincorp (GNC) | UBS | Neutral | Buy | $7.95 | 2.6% |
IDP Education (IEL) | CLSA | Hold | Outperform | $4.00 | 13.0% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Jarden | Neutral | Overweight | $6.95 | 96.3% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Overweight | $4.25 | 20.1% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Morgans | Hold | Buy | $4.15 | 17.2% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Ord Minnett | Hold | Buy | $8.00 | 126.0% |
Judo Capital (JDO) | Morgans | Accumulate | Buy | $1.75 | 15.9% |
MA Financial Group (MAF) | Morgans | Accumulate | Buy | $8.23 | 16.2% |
Megaport (MP1) | Ord Minnett | Sell | Hold | $11.50 | -17.3% |
Soul Pattinson (SOL) | CLSA | Hold | Outperform | $35.26 | -12.2% |
Soul Pattinson (SOL) | Jarden | Neutral | Overweight | $32.30 | -19.5% |
The Lottery Corporation (TLC) | Morgans | Hold | Add | $5.50 | 8.3% |
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | Jarden | Overweight | Buy | $10.60 | 29.0% |
Broker rating downgrades since last update. Target Price Upside/Downside (“TP Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on most recent session's close.
Broker Views Snippets - Downgrades
Bell Potter on Austal (ASX: ASB):
DOWNGRADED TO HOLD ⬇️ FROM BUY
“We remain positive on the long-term outlook for ASB, considering the macro tailwinds and attractive growth profile, however, we are conscious of its current valuation.”
Target raised to $5.60 from $4.45 ⬆️ (5.1% downside)
Morgan Stanley on IDP Education (ASX: IEL):
DOWNGRADED TO EQUAL-WEIGHT ⬇️ FROM OVERWEIGHT
“Magnitude of downgrade reflects sensitivity of earnings to operational de-leverage and extent of uncertainties ahead...While today's share price correction (-48%) already captures significant downside risk, we see limited catalysts for a re-rating.”
Target cut to $4.25 from $17.95 ⬇️ (20.1% upside)
Ord Minnett on IDP Education (ASX: IEL):
DOWNGRADED TO HOLD ⬇️ FROM BUY
“The much-diminished outlook has led Ord Minnett to make a drastic cut to its earnings estimates over the forecast horizon...we downgrade our recommendation to Hold from Buy to incorporate the much-increased risks around student visas and immigration policy more generally.”
Target cut to $8.00 from $15.00 ⬇️ (126% upside)
Rating INITIATED
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Target Price | TP Upside% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGL Energy (AGL) | Citi | Buy | $12.00 | 15.5% | |
Bhagwan Marine (BWN) | Shaw and Partners | Buy | $0.80 | 56.9% | |
Firefly Metals (FFM) | Stifel | Buy | $1.80 | 252.9% | |
Lotus Resources (LOT) | JP Morgan | Underweight | $0.13 | -27.8% |
Broker rating initiations since last update. Target Price Upside/Downside (“TP Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on most recent session's close.
Broker Views Snippets - Initiated
Citi on AGL Energy (ASX: AGL):
INITIATED AT BUY | TARGET PRICE $12.00 🆕
“AGL is undergoing a strategic transformation as it transitions from coal to renewables and firming capacity, with near-term capex weighing on the FCF outlook. However, we believe the market underappreciates the quality of AGL’s emerging earnings base, particularly from batteries and VPPs, which are well-placed to capture growing price volatility and firming margins through the mid-cycle transition.”
15.5% upside to target price
Shaw and Partners on Bhagwan Marine (ASX: BWN):
INITIATED AT BUY | TARGET PRICE $0.80 🆕
“BWN is a leading marine solutions provider to the oil & gas, port, civil and defence industries, growing market share in expanding markets...BWN’s enhanced profile and strategic port locations, should position the company to win defence contracts coming available near Darwin and the Henderson Marine Precinct, WA.We project >20% NPAT growth CAGR for the next 3 years driven by contract wins, margin expansion, and increased utilization.”
56.9% upside to target price
Target Price BIGGEST INCREASES
Company | Broker | Rating | New TP | Old TP | TP Change% | TP Upside% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boss Energy (BOE) | Citi | Buy | $4.60 | $3.30 | 39.4% | 16.8% |
Catapult Group (CAT) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $6.00 | $4.45 | 34.8% | -2.6% |
Brickworks (BKW) | Jarden | Neutral | $32.30 | $25.00 | 29.2% | -0.6% |
Soul Pattinson (SOL) | Jarden | Neutral | $32.30 | $25.00 | 29.2% | -19.5% |
Aspen Group (APZ) | Bell Potter | Buy | $3.90 | $3.05 | 27.9% | 8.6% |
Austal (ASB) | Bell Potter | Hold | $5.60 | $4.45 | 25.8% | -5.1% |
Ikegps Group (IKE) | Bell Potter | Buy | $1.17 | $0.93 | 25.8% | 33.0% |
Core Lithium (CXO) | Canaccord Genuity | Hold | $0.10 | $0.08 | 25.0% | 11.1% |
Brickworks (BKW) | Macquarie | Neutral | $32.20 | $26.00 | 23.8% | -0.9% |
Soul Pattinson (SOL) | Macquarie | Neutral | $32.20 | $26.00 | 23.8% | -19.8% |
Objective Corporation (OCL) | Morgans | Hold | $20.50 | $16.75 | 22.4% | 8.5% |
Adriatic Metals (ADT) | Canaccord Genuity | Hold | $5.50 | $4.55 | 20.9% | 4.2% |
WEB Travel Group (WEB) | Citi | Buy | $6.60 | $5.50 | 20.0% | 30.7% |
Perenti (PRN) | Citi | Buy | $1.90 | $1.60 | 18.8% | 17.6% |
Technology One (TNE) | Morgans | Hold | $43.50 | $36.85 | 18.0% | 2.6% |
Brickworks (BKW) | CLSA | Hold | $35.26 | $30.00 | 17.5% | 8.6% |
Soul Pattinson (SOL) | CLSA | Hold | $35.26 | $30.00 | 17.5% | -12.2% |
Brickworks (BKW) | Ord Minnett | Hold | $34.90 | $30.00 | 16.3% | 7.5% |
Superloop (SLC) | Morgans | Add | $3.00 | $2.60 | 15.4% | 4.9% |
Soul Pattinson (SOL) | Morgans | Hold | $43.15 | $37.50 | 15.1% | 7.5% |
Generation Development (GDG) | Morgans | Add | $6.04 | $5.25 | 15.0% | 4.1% |
Charter Hall Group (CHC) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $22.60 | $20.00 | 13.0% | 17.5% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $7.85 | $6.95 | 12.9% | 14.8% |
Hub24 (HUB) | Morgans | Hold | $83.10 | $73.80 | 12.6% | -1.3% |
Insignia Financial (IFL) | UBS | Buy | $4.50 | $4.00 | 12.5% | 24.3% |
Champion Iron (CIA) | Jarden | Buy | $6.63 | $5.91 | 12.2% | 49.0% |
Tabcorp (TAH) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $0.78 | $0.70 | 11.4% | 9.9% |
QBE Insurance (QBE) | Morgans | Add | $26.76 | $24.07 | 11.2% | 13.3% |
Megaport (MP1) | Morgans | Add | $15.50 | $14.00 | 10.7% | 11.5% |
Biggest broker target price changes since last update. Target Price Upside/Downside (“TP Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices as on most recent session's close.
Broker Views Snippets - Biggest Price Target Increases
Citi on Boss Energy (ASX: BOE):
RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $4.60 ⬆️ FROM $3.30
“The same inflection point that marked the peak in 1H-CY24 appears to be now playing out in reverse, as our fuel cycle signals suggest a decisive upside turn. With uranium entering its next bull-phase, we see a narrow window to accumulate miners before replacement-rate contracting starts in a structurally undersupplied market.”
Rating retained at BUY ↔️ | 16.8% upside to target price
Morgan Stanley on Catapult Group International (ASX: CAT):
RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $6.00 ⬆️ FROM $4.45
“An attractive structural growth story, servicing a large and growing global TAM. We explore this as one factor that underpins our forecasts for CAT to grow revenue at a 3Y CAGR of 16% CAGR and EBITDA at 40%.”
Rating retained at OVERWEIGHT ↔️ | 2.6% downside to target price
Macquarie on Brickworks (ASX: BKW):
RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $32.20 ⬆️ FROM $26.00
“The removal of a complex cross-holding is a key positive. Tax authority rulings are a key condition, which mgt appear confident of. ”
Rating retained at NEUTRAL ↔️ | 0.9% downside to target price
Target Price BIGGEST DECREASES
Company | Broker | Rating | New TP | Old TP | TP Change% | TP Upside% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IDP Education (IEL) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | $4.25 | $17.95 | -76.3% | 20.1% |
IDP Education (IEL) | CLSA | Hold | $4.00 | $15.00 | -73.3% | 13.0% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Morgans | Hold | $4.15 | $13.00 | -68.1% | 17.2% |
IDP Education (IEL) | JP Morgan | Neutral | $4.25 | $11.90 | -64.3% | 20.1% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Jefferies | Hold | $3.50 | $9.50 | -63.2% | -1.1% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Macquarie | Outperform | $6.40 | $16.00 | -60.0% | 80.8% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Jarden | Neutral | $6.95 | $17.35 | -59.9% | 96.3% |
IDP Education (IEL) | UBS | Buy | $4.95 | $12.00 | -58.8% | 39.8% |
IDP Education (IEL) | Ord Minnett | Hold | $8.00 | $15.50 | -48.4% | 126.0% |
Ioneer (INR) | Ord Minnett | Speculative Buy | $0.20 | $0.30 | -33.3% | 66.7% |
Coronado Resources (CRN) | Morgans | Hold | $0.13 | $0.18 | -27.8% | -21.2% |
Domino's Pizza (DMP) | Citi | Neutral | $23.82 | $31.82 | -25.1% | 10.1% |
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | Jarden | Overweight | $10.60 | $13.90 | -23.7% | 29.0% |
Siteminder (SDR) | Morgans | Hold | $4.90 | $6.40 | -23.4% | 1.9% |
Cosol (COS) | Bell Potter | Buy | $0.90 | $1.15 | -21.7% | 37.4% |
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | Jefferies | Buy | $12.00 | $15.00 | -20.0% | 46.0% |
Cyclopharm (CYC) | Bell Potter | Buy | $2.20 | $2.70 | -18.5% | 103.7% |
Jumbo Interactive (JIN) | Morgans | Add | $11.20 | $13.60 | -17.6% | 14.6% |
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | Morgans | Buy | $11.06 | $13.43 | -17.6% | 34.5% |
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | Citi | Neutral | $8.68 | $10.50 | -17.3% | 5.6% |
Aroa Biosurgery (ARX) | Morgans | Speculative Buy | $0.77 | $0.93 | -17.2% | 49.5% |
Aroa Biosurgery (ARX) | Morgans | Speculative Buy | $0.77 | $0.93 | -17.2% | 49.5% |
Toubani Resources (TRE) | Canaccord Genuity | Speculative Buy | $1.25 | $1.50 | -16.7% | 331.0% |
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) | UBS | Buy | $12.00 | $14.00 | -14.3% | 46.0% |
IPD Group (IPG) | Bell Potter | Buy | $4.10 | $4.60 | -10.9% | 36.7% |
Brazilian Rare Earths (BRE) | Ord Minnett | Speculative Buy | $6.30 | $7.00 | -10.0% | 236.9% |
Biggest broker target price changes since last update. Target Price Upside/Downside (“TP Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices as on most recent session's close.
Broker Views Snippets - Biggest Price Target Decreases
Macquarie on IDP Education (ASX: IEL):
CUTS TARGET PRICE TO $6.40 ⬇️ FROM $16.00
“Our thesis is unchanged - long-term IDP can deliver double-digit growth, albeit, current trading is impacted by negative rhetoric/anti-student immigration policy settings in key markets, which should annualise in FY26. Cost-out and improving volumes/sentiment are key re-rating catalysts.”
Rating retained at OUTPERFORM ↔️ | 80.8% upside to target price
Ord Minnett on Ioneer (ASX: INR):
CUTS TARGET PRICE TO $0.20 ⬇️ FROM $0.30
“INR’s main catalyst is the release of its updated cost estimates, mine plan and ore reserves for Rhyolite Ridge due in May-25. We also await news on its strategic partnering process starting in JunQ-25. However, the lower opex and expansion optionality of this testing may create greater long-term upside for bidders.”
Rating retained at SPECULATIVE BUY ↔️ | 66.7% upside to target price
Citi on Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE):
CUTS TARGET PRICE TO $8.68 ⬇️ FROM $10.50
“We see incrementally more risk to Treasury’s FY26 earnings, following today’s announcement which revealed a key distributor, RNDC, will cease operations in California...we think we think there is still near-term risk.”
Rating retained at NEUTRAL ↔️ | 5.6% upside to target price
How to read broker recommendations 🔎
Typically, there are two major components of a broker’s view:
Rating: A call to action, usually along the lines of buy, hold, or sell, but depending on the broker’s ratings system, can be somewhere in between (e.g., accumulate or add is typically between a hold and a buy).
Target Price (TP): The price at which the broker expects the stock will be trading at some point in the future, generally within the next 12 months.
