Evening Wrap: ASX 200 closes week strong as gains in technology, biotech, and critical minerals stocks ramp up

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 41.5 points higher, up 0.46%.

Another strong gain for the Australian share market as it's starting to feel a lot like a bull market again! And so many massive gains today... small and big... as you'll see in tonight's wrap.

Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap.

Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.

Let's dive in!

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 41.5 points higher at 8,987.4, 0.67% from its session low and just 0.1% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers beat decliners by 173 to 104. For the week, the XJO finished up 199 points or 2.3% higher, 2.3% from its intraweek low and just 0.1% from its intraweek high.

Fund flows – Nasdaq on the ASX

A little moot today, with few big sector moves or thematics at play as far as I could see. Information Technology (XIJ) (+1.6%) rebounded on stronger US tech stocks overnight, while other high-P/E sectors like Healthcare (XHJ) (+1.0%) and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (+1.0%) also did well.

Hardly huge moves, though, and if you look inside a sector like Healthcare, the best moves occurred in biotechs and techs anyway… Dorsavi (DVL) (+20.4%), Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) (+19.3%), 4DMedical (4DX) (+11.8%), Mesoblast (MSB) (+8.7%) and Pro Medicus (PME) (+1.7%)… so real Nasdaq sort of stuff. Hmmm... it seems they’re all ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends List constituents too! 😉

At the other end, as per yesterday’s discussion, defensives were again on the back foot (when markets are rising you play offence… not defence!) So then, it's perhaps no surprise to see Consumer Staples (XSJ) (-0.2%), and Utilities (XUJ) (-1.0%) at the bottom of the sector performance list. I note there's definitely no surprise to see recently permanent laggard Energy (XEJ) (-0.7%) down there also…

Today's best blue chip gainers

Today's worst blue chip losers

ChartWatch

S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)

S&P/ASX 200 chart (click here for full size image)

You might have been told that “FOMO” is a bad thing… perhaps you heard a value investor say: “Markets are only going up because of FOMO!” (wah wah wah wah wah 😭)… As value investors are prone to do when markets are rocketing!

“FOMO” is the acronym for Fear Of Missing Out – and let me tell you that it’s a truly wonderful thing in a bull market.

It’s the driving force behind the demand-side’s motivation to hoover up supply and to bid up price in the process (i.e., in order to entice out further supply to hoover up!).

As trend follower who has only one setting in a rampant bull market: Add/Maintain Risk – I LOVE the smell of FOMO in the morning 😍.

Looking at today’s candle, I get the feeling there’s a few fund managers out there starting to experience more than just a little bit of FOMO. September’s swoon was their long-awaited chance to finally “buy quality on sale”, but the swoon barely eventuated.

Now, with prices on the rise again, they’re faced with the gut-wrenching decision: Pay up for stocks they perceive as “grossly overvalued” – or if they refuse – risk lagging an-ever rising benchmark. That last item will make or break their end of year fund-manager peer comparisons (as well as their bonuses!!! 🤑).

As I said: FOMO is a wonderful thing in a bull market 😉… because FOMO = LATENT DEMAND ✅

The reason we’re not facing the same tough decisions those poor old fund managers are grappling with right now – nor their growing FOMO – is because we’re trend followers.

This means that we just go with the flow: Identify trend, follow trend, manage risk. And if the trend changes, guess what? Yep: Identify trend, follow trend, manage risk.

And right now, that “flow” for the Golden Le Creuset is:

1. Short and long term trend ribbons: ⬆️/⬆️, widening/getting stronger, both acting as zones of dynamic excess demand, i.e., accumulation + buy the dip = Consistent with demand-side control ✅

2. Price action: Rising peaks and rising troughs 📈, i.e., supply removal and demand reinforcement + buy the dip = Consistent with demand-side control ✅

3. Candles: White-bodied candles and or downward pointing shadows i.e., pervasive programmed buy orders + buy the dip = Consistent with demand-side control ✅

Conclusion: ✅✅✅ = I prefer to stay the course here at FRP (Full Risk Position = My personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks is 100%)

Key levels: 8991-9055 is the key zone of supply, I will be very watchful for signs of excess supply in there. 8731 is the most important near-term point of demand, the price should not close below here if the demand-side is in control of the XJO’s price = ⚠️

Economy

Today

• There weren't any major economic data releases in our time zone today

Later this week

Friday

• 22:30 USA September Non-farm Payrolls

  • Non-Farm Employment Change: +52,000 forecast vs +22,000 in August

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.3% m/m in August

  • Unemployment Rate: +4.3% forecast vs +4.3% in August

Saturday

• 00:00 USA September ISM Services PMI (51.8 forecast vs 52.0 in August)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +31.0% Finder Energy (FDR) – Vesting of Performance Rights, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +27.3% Cettire (CTT) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and rising peaks and rising troughs 🔎📈

• +22.2% European Lithium (EUR) – EUR to Undertake On-Market Share Buy-Back, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +20.8% Altech Batteries (ATC) – UPS Batteries For Explosive (EX & ATEX) Environments, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up 🔎📈

• +20.4% Dorsavi (DVL) – Continued positive response to 01-Oct RRAM Reflex Robotics Platform Validated for Bio-Speed, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +19.3% Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) – Continued positive response to 02-Oct Data on SAR-bisFAP to be presented at WMIC 2025, rise is consistent with prevailing short term uptrend and long term trend is transitioning from down to up, added to ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list yesterday 🔎📈

• +19.3% Dateline Resources (DTR) – Continued positive response to 02-Oct Drilling Accelerates at Colosseum, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +18.4% West Wits Mining (WWI) – West Wits Investor Presentation, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +17.8% Eagers Automotive (APE) – Update - Equity Raising, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +17.6% Orbital Corporation (OEC) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends 🔎📈

• +15.5% Nova Minerals (NVA) – Continued positive response to 01-Oct DoW Awards US$43.4M to Nova for Antimony Production, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +15.4% Caprice Resources (CRS) – No news, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

• +15.4% Dreadnought Resources (DRE) – Option to Acquire Strategic Landholding in Mid-West, rise is consistent with prevailing short and long term uptrends, a regular in ChartWatch ASX Scans Uptrends list 🔎📈

Trading lower

• -12.6% Race Oncology (RAC) - No news, pulled back after yesterday's sharp rally due to Discovery of the Anticancer Mechanism of (EE)-bisantrene.

• -9.4% Challenger Gold (CEL) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -8.8% African Gold (A1G) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

• -7.3% Lakes Blue Energy (LKO) - No news, pulled back after yesterday's sharp rally due to Wombat-5 Well, Gippsland Basin, Drilling Summary.

• -6.8% Yandal Resources (YRL) - No news, pulled back in the wake of recent sharp rally.

Broker Moves

AMP (AMP)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $1.95 from $1.52

Eagers Automotive (APE)

• Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $29.98 from $27.33

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $31.00 from $23.50

ARB Corporation (ARB)

• Upgraded to positive from neutral at E&P; Price Target: $42.16 from $34.24

ASX (ASX)

• Upgraded to accumulate from hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $63.00 from $64.50

Boss Energy (BOE)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.15

CAR Group (CAR)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $42.55

Challenger (CGF)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $9.85 from $9.00

Chalice Mining (CHN)

• Downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan; Price Target: $2.50 from $1.90

Computershare (CPU)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $41.55 from $42.00

Deterra Royalties (DRR)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $4.70 from $4.60

Goodman Group (GMG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $40.00

Insignia Financial (IFL)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $4.80 from $5.00

JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $120.00

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

• Downgraded to underweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $13.00 from $13.25

Mirvac Group (MGR)

• Retained at equal-weight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $2.45

Medibank Private (MPL)

• Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $5.10 from $4.80

New Hope Corporation (NHC)

• Downgraded to accumulate from buy at Morgans; Price Target: $4.35 from $4.45

NIB Holdings (NHF)

• Upgraded to buy from accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.50 from $7.65

Nickel Industries (NIC)

• Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $0.80 from $0.70

QBE Insurance Group (QBE)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $24.30 from $25.50

South32 (S32)

• Upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan; Price Target: $3.30 from $2.90

Scentre Group (SCG)

• Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $4.60

Steadfast Group (SDF)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $6.65 from $6.80

Stockland (SGP)

• Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $6.90

Suncorp Group (SUN)

• Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $22.50 from $22.00

Westgold Resources (WGX)

• Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $6.20 from $5.95

Webjet Group (WJL)

• Retained at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $1.20

• Retained at overweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $1.05 from $1.00

Scans