Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, S&P 500 ekes out another fresh all-time high

ASX 200 futures are down 4pts (-0.04%) as of 8:30 am AEST.

In a nutshell:

• The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all edged out fresh all-time highs

• Oil prices dipped for a fourth straight session, trading at the lowest since 2 June

• US government shutdown in focus, Trump plans to roll out more government layoffs and reverse transit, green-energy projects

Let's dive in.

S&P 500 SESSION CHART

S&P 500 marginally higher, off morning highs (Source: TradingView)

OVERNIGHT MARKETS

• Major US benchmarks higher, bouncing off early session low

• S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all at record highs

• Oil prices continue to unravel, with Brent crude down 1.6% overnight or down 6.5% in the last four session to US$64.33 a barrel or the lowest since 2 June

• A relatively quiet session, with ongoing US government shutdown in focus, though market has largely viewed this event as more noise than news

• Global chipmakers' market cap surges over $200bn as investors flock to AI, driven by FOMO despite bubble concerns (BBG)

• Investors expect more Fed cuts despite economic re-acceleration which could boost stocks or trigger inflation/bubble fears (AX)

• Trump is aiming for more equity and regulatory deals in in pharma, AI, energy, mining before midterms (RT)

• China-linked AI companies among best performing stocks globally in September quarter (NK)

• Japan 10-year auction met with weaker demand, bonds reverse erase earlier gain (BBG)

• Argentina's assets decline amid concerns over US bailout details, with peso and bonds experiencing significant drops (FT)

STOCKS

• OpenAI $6.6bn employee share sale completed, $500bn valuation makes it most valuable startup in the world (BBG)

• Perplexity AI introduces Comet web browser for free worldwide (CNBC)

• Rivian's best-case guess for 2025 sales is 16% year-on-year dip in sales (TC)

• Samsung and SK Hynix shares surge in wake of chip supply agreement with OpenAI (BBG)

• Fermi, co-founded by former US energy secretary Perry, surged 55% in its Nasdaq debut (FT)

• Volkswagen revitalises its struggling tech unit, aiming for a "massive transformation" to compete with Tesla and Chinese EVs (FT)

TARIFFS

• Trump criticises Beijing for stopping US soybean purchases, will raise issue with Xi (BBG)

• White House pursuing deals across dozens of domestic industries involving tariff relief, revenue guarantees, or equity stakes (RT)

• US proposes equity investment in Australian critical minerals to reduce dependence on China amid export restrictions (RT)

• EU plans to raise steel import tariffs to 50% to combat overcapacity, aligning with US measures against China (BBG)

• South Korea and the US reach a preliminary security agreement amid tariff negotiations, with currency swap talks ongoing (RT)

CENTRAL BANKS

• Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says data delay will make it harder for Fed to assess economy (BBG)

• Fed's Logan says US central bank must be "very cautious" on rate cuts (RT)

• Shutdown that lasts at least several weeks could cause confusion about Fed's monetary-policy path (RT)

• BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida states interest rates will rise if economic and price developments align with forecasts (BBG)

US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

• White House escalates shutdown impact, planning mass layoffs to maximize pain and target political opponents (FT)

• Trump signals he will use government shutdown to roll back more Democratic priorities (CNBC)

• Trump admin freezes $26bn for Democratic states amid government shutdown, targeting transit, green-energy projects (NYT)

• US government shutdown halts farm payments and delays loans, worsening financial strain on farmers amid low prices (RT)

• Bessent says news on tariff bailout for farmers coming Tuesday, will offer "substantial support" (AX)

ECONOMY

• Australia's household spending rose 0.1% month-on-month in August, below expectations, with notable declines in recreation and alcohol (BBG)

• South Korea inflation rises by more than expected following expiration of one-off cuts to telecommunications fees (BBG)

ASX TODAY

• Amplitude Energy seeks shareholder approval for an 11-to-1 share consolidation at 2025 AGM (AEL)

• DigiCo REIT notes customer wins across Australia data centre platform, to increase Australian contracted IT capacity to 41MW by Jun-26 vs. prior estimate of 27MW, known contracted billings expected to equal annualised run-rate EBITDA of at least $180m from Jul-26 (DGT)

• Rio Tinto considering options for mineral sands business, asked number of investment banks to review and pitch ideas (AFR)

WHAT TO WATCH TODAY

• What a move: Thursday's session was absolutely vivid, featuring a massive rally for the materials sector (uranium, coal and lithium bouncing from recent pullbacks, iron ore miners trying to break out of recent trading ranges, gold and silver names continuing to power into record territory/multi-year highs). The financials sector also finding some support, with CBA breaking out of a three-month long downtrend. Plenty of select growth stocks surged, including Qoria, EnergyOne, Fineos, Bravura Solutions and more. The overnight ETFs somewhat reflect the move we experienced yesterday (e.g. Uranium ETF up 4.0% overnight). Let's see if these sectors can continue to build on recent momentum.

• DigiCo REIT: This looks like a big upgrade considering Australian contracted IT capacity has been lifted by 51% vs. prior estimate, the annualised run-rate EBITDA of at least $180m from Jul-26 also sitting above some forecasts, with Macquarie expecting FY27 EBITDA of $168.1m.

BROKER MOVES

Broker data currently pending.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Fri 3 Oct: Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (QRI) – $0.009, Ridley Corporation (RIC) – $0.05, Steamships Trading Company (SST) – $0.128

• Mon 6 Oct: Harvey Norman (HVN) – $0.145, Stealth Group Holdings (SGI) – $0.01

• Tue 7 Oct: Katana Capital (KAT) – $0.005, Reece (REH) – $0.119

• Wed 8 Oct: Clime Capital (CAM) – $0.014, MFF Capital Investments (MFF) – $0.09, Naos Emerging Opportunities (NCC) – $0.02, Vulcan Steel (VSL) – $0.032

• Thu 9 Oct: Clime Investment Management (CIW) – $0.005, Duxton Water (D2O) – $0.037

• Fri 10 Oct: None

Other ASX corporate actions today: 

• Dividends paid: Bisalloy Steel Group (BIS), CSL (CSL), Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP), Evolution Mining (EVN), Fleetwood (FWD), G8 Education (GEM), Joyce Corp (JYC), Mader Group (MAD), Origin Energy (ORG), Perpetual (PPT), Service Stream (SSM), Vita Life Sciences (VLS), WOTSO (WOT)

• Earnings: None

• IPOs: 

• AGMs: AGL Energy (AGL)

Economic calendar (AEST):

No major economic events.