ChartWatch ASX Scans: Trying to pick the low of beaten down ASX mining stocks!
Your daily dose of the most interesting uptrends and downtrends on the ASX with technical analysis from an expert.
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KEY POINTS
- Interesting uptrends in today's Scans: AMP (AMP), American Rare Earths (ARR), Artrya (AYA), Black Cat Syndicate (BC8), Benz Mining (BNZ), Bioxyne (BXN), Fortescue (FMG), Felix Gold (FXG), WA1 Resources (WA1), Wesfarmers (WES), Whitehaven Coal (WHC).
- Interesting downtrends in today's Scans: Appen (APX), Cuscal Group (CCL), GQG Partners (GQG), Light & Wonder (LNW), Polynovo (PNV).
Trying to pick the low of a beaten down ASX mining stock? The long and short of it is this... Or rather the short and long of it, as is usually the case. That's because using my trend following system, there's a very, very good chance one is short a beaten down stock when it makes its absolute bottom.
Probably, one has been short for some time 📉.
Yet, no trend lasts forever. Either the stock in the long term downtrend gets delisted, or at some point, the stars realign and even the strongest downtrends eventually transition to uptrends (and vice versa).
I don't have a method / strategy for picking the exact low of a major downtrend (nor uptrend). Although, I do look for particular candle and price action patterns that may occur well in advance of my trend ribbons changing from down to up that allow me to reduce short-side exposure. Ideally, I'm neutral on the stock in question when the new short term uptrend begins.
But I won't be long. That's impossible. I need to see the beginning of a new long term uptrend for that. So, I'll never pick the absolute low – there simply aren't any criteria in my system that allow me to do so. It's a trend following system, and by definition, the trend at the major low of a long downtrend is unequivocally down.
But I'm okay with this. I really have no desire to pick the absolute low of a stock’s bear market – I am perfectly happy to miss it – every time 🧘.
This is because over many years of devastating losses endured trying to pick the absolute low of long and protracted downtrends, I realised how ineffective and inefficient this activity was for building wealth (i.e., both in terms of time and money!).
I reached a point where I committed to never do it again. (Hint: that was when I totally committed to a trend following approach!). I forcibly changed my mindset.
It wasn't easy and it didn't happen overnight. Nope, it was bloody hard, and there were several setbacks along the way 🤯.
This is because it's human nature to crave feeling like we nailed it. Like we're some kind of beautiful-mind-genius who picked the low. We love to pat ourselves on the back and stroke our egos. But I learned that making money was more important than being right and stroking my ego!
For others, they just can't bear to sell out of a losing trade in the first place (i.e., they commit to holding on after the uptrend has clearly transitioned to a downtrend). This is an entirely different matter altogether, but it's similar in terms of ego – or more specifically, with respect to damage to it. Mostly though, this foible is a result of an inability to take a loss due to the fear that as soon as we do, the stock in question will go straight back up again. Fear of missing out (FOMO!).
Commodity price cycle and FOMO (click here for full size image)
Yep, you know that feeling of FOMO ("I can't sell now because if I do...") – but you also know how this kind of mindset has served you overall. Be honest: Not very well 👎.
Is FOMO only fear, or is it also a case of greed? 🤔 Either way, a total and utter commitment to trend following solved that little chestnut for me, also.
Anyways, tops come and go, as do bottoms... but in the middle of those are the trends. They're the bits I'm interested in. They're the bits that I've learned are the highest probability bits to target. As you have likely heard me say many times: If you get the probability part right, the profitability part will take care of itself.
I'll let the masses and experts alike continue to try to pick the exact low of a major downtrend, and revel in it when they do – yet forget to make a peep when they don't. That's me sitting over there in the corner, pouring over the charts, searching for the highest probability trends, and 100% always following them 🧐.
In today's edition of ChartWatch ASX Scans, there are several stocks that have transitioned from the Downtrends Scan List where they spent many months as shorts – and substantially successfully so – to the Uptrends Scan List. In particular, I note Iluka Resources (ILU), Mineral Resources (MIN), Fortescue (FMG), Whitehaven Coal (WHC), New Hope Corp. (NHC) and Yancoal Australia (YAL) that have been in the Uptrends for a little while now, and a new entrant as of today, IGO (IGO).
See this previous edition of ChartWatch ASX Scans for more information on my Turnaround Setup.
Welcome to my ChartWatch Daily ASX Scans series. Here I present scan lists based on my trend following technical analysis methodology. My goal is to alert you to the best uptrends and downtrends on the ASX.
Feel free to get your favourite AI to convert the tables below into lists you can upload to your favourite trading platform like TradingView. Then you'll be able to skip from chart to chart and quickly and easily see the best uptrends and downtrends on the ASX.
Some investors prefer to buy those stocks in strong uptrends, and avoid, sell, or short sell those stocks in strong downtrends – but how you use the lists is really up to you!
Note, many stocks in both lists have appeared there many times before. As long as they keep meeting my criteria – they'll keep appearing. But note, there won't be any notifications when they don't – so you'll have to do your own research on when a particular trend changes!
Uptrends Scan List
Company | Code | Last Price | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Amplitude Energy | AEL | $0.260 | +15.6% | +15.6% |
AMP | AMP | $1.875 | +28.4% | +68.2% |
Eagers Automotive | APE | $20.65 | +6.6% | +105.1% |
American Rare Earths | ARR | $0.370 | +57.4% | +48.0% |
Andean Silver | ASL | $1.530 | +28.6% | +115.5% |
Aurum Resources | AUE | $0.520 | +11.8% | +38.7% |
Artrya | AYA | $1.300 | +36.8% | +348.3% |
Black Cat Syndicate | BC8 | $0.920 | +18.7% | +152.1% |
Betmakers Technology | BET | $0.160 | +52.4% | +95.1% |
Benz Mining Corp. | BNZ | $0.985 | +75.9% | +657.7% |
Breville Group | BRG | $33.96 | +12.0% | +20.7% |
Beetaloo Energy Australia | BTL | $0.275 | +22.2% | +5.8% |
Bioxyne | BXN | $0.051 | +24.4% | +920.0% |
Codan | CDA | $23.63 | +25.9% | +101.1% |
Challenger Gold | CEL | $0.110 | +46.7% | +134.0% |
Challenger | CGF | $8.35 | +3.0% | +28.9% |
Charter Hall Group | CHC | $21.77 | +12.2% | +82.3% |
Collins Foods | CKF | $9.34 | +3.2% | +8.7% |
Charter Hall Long Wale Reit | CLW | $4.40 | +6.0% | +28.3% |
Capricorn Metals | CMM | $9.92 | +5.0% | +79.7% |
Downer EDI | DOW | $6.95 | +6.1% | +45.7% |
Deterra Royalties | DRR | $4.37 | +10.1% | +15.3% |
DY6 Metals | DY6 | $0.310 | +34.8% | +244.4% |
EDU | EDU | $0.470 | +30.6% | +193.8% |
Fiducian Group | FID | $11.50 | +14.5% | +62.9% |
Fortescue | FMG | $18.85 | +14.2% | +1.3% |
Felix Gold | FXG | $0.200 | +53.8% | +316.7% |
Gorilla Gold Mines | GG8 | $0.485 | +31.1% | +430.5% |
iShares Global Infrastructure ETF | GLIN | $28.52 | +3.6% | +10.5% |
Helloworld Travel | HLO | $1.745 | +14.8% | -23.1% |
Harvey Norman | HVN | $6.03 | +9.8% | +32.2% |
IGO | IGO | $5.00 | +10.6% | +0.4% |
Iluka Resources | ILU | $6.01 | +51.0% | +10.9% |
Intelligent Monitoring | IMB | $0.665 | +33.0% | +5.6% |
IPH | IPH | $5.38 | +6.7% | -8.3% |
JB HI-FI | JBH | $117.70 | +6.5% | +79.2% |
Jupiter Mines | JMS | $0.230 | +9.5% | 0% |
Kinatico | KYP | $0.280 | +33.3% | +207.7% |
Lovisa | LOV | $35.06 | +6.1% | +9.9% |
Lynas Rare Earths | LYC | $12.62 | +52.2% | +116.5% |
Macmahon | MAH | $0.365 | +23.7% | +32.7% |
Magnetic Resources | MAU | $1.570 | +9.0% | +6.4% |
Mineral Resources | MIN | $33.98 | +33.2% | -33.3% |
McMillan Shakespeare | MMS | $18.13 | +6.1% | +6.6% |
BetaShares Global Gold Miners ETF | MNRS | $10.47 | +14.2% | +73.1% |
Vaneck Aus Resources ETF | MVR | $35.70 | +7.4% | +11.7% |
Newmont Corporation | NEM | $106.68 | +18.2% | +47.9% |
New Hope Corporation | NHC | $4.52 | +14.1% | -5.2% |
NIB | NHF | $7.63 | +6.6% | +9.9% |
NRW | NWH | $3.36 | +10.9% | -0.3% |
Orica | ORI | $21.66 | +5.7% | +24.8% |
PWR Holdings | PWH | $8.31 | +9.1% | -24.5% |
SKS Technologies | SKS | $2.50 | +19.0% | +51.5% |
Superloop | SLC | $3.34 | +12.5% | +125.7% |
Servcorp | SRV | $6.00 | +4.3% | +44.6% |
Torque Metals. | TOR | $0.305 | +110.3% | +134.6% |
Victory Metals | VTM | $1.480 | +72.1% | +329.0% |
WA1 Resources | WA1 | $18.86 | +16.2% | +48.5% |
Wesfarmers | WES | $90.26 | +8.4% | +27.6% |
Whitehaven Coal | WHC | $6.96 | +16.4% | -6.1% |
West Wits Mining | WWI | $0.028 | +43.6% | +86.7% |
Block | XYZ | $127.09 | +21.4% | +39.9% |
Yancoal Australia | YAL | $6.66 | +7.8% | -2.5% |
Today's Uptrends Scan List
Feature Charts from today's Uptrends List 🔎📈
The stocks that I feel are showing the strongest excess demand from today's Uptrends List are: AMP (ASX: AMP), American Rare Earths (ASX: ARR), Artrya (ASX: AYA), Black Cat Syndicate (ASX: BC8), Benz Mining Corp. (ASX: BNZ), Bioxyne (ASX: BXN), Challenger Gold (ASX: CEL), Charter Hall Group (ASX: CHC), DY6 Metals (ASX: DY6), EDU (ASX: EDU), Fortescue (ASX: FMG), Felix Gold (ASX: FXG), Gorilla Gold Mines (ASX: GG8), Helloworld Travel (ASX: HLO), Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU), Intelligent Monitoring Group (ASX: IMB), Kinatico (ASX: KYP), Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC), Magnetic Resources (ASX: MAU), Newmont Corporation (ASX: NEM), New Hope Corporation (ASX: NHC), Torque Metals. (ASX: TOR), Victory Metals (ASX: VTM), WA1 Resources (ASX: WA1), Wesfarmers (ASX: WES), Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC), West Wits Mining (ASX: WWI), Block (ASX: XYZ), Yancoal Australia (ASX: YAL).
Feature Uptrend charts:
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Downtrends Scan List
Company | Code | Last Price | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Austin Engineering | ANG | $0.305 | -14.1% | -49.6% |
Appen | APX | $0.890 | -19.8% | +35.9% |
Brightstar Resources | BTR | $0.430 | -8.5% | +14.7% |
Cuscal Group | CCL | $2.90 | -9.1% | 0% |
Duratec | DUR | $1.435 | -3.4% | +13.0% |
GQG Partners | GQG | $1.725 | -20.1% | -33.7% |
Imugene | IMU | $0.265 | -35.4% | -85.0% |
Lifestyle Communities | LIC | $4.52 | -6.4% | -48.8% |
Light & Wonder | LNW | $118.75 | -22.0% | -23.3% |
Mayne Pharma | MYX | $4.99 | -4.0% | +23.8% |
Polynovo | PNV | $1.145 | +0.4% | -50.4% |
Southern Cross Gold | SX2 | $5.47 | -8.7% | 0% |
Today's Downtrends Scan List
Feature Charts from today's Downtrends List 🔎📉
The stocks that I feel are showing the strongest excess supply from today's Downtrends List are: Appen (ASX: APX), Cuscal Group (ASX: CCL), GQG Partners (ASX: GQG), Light & Wonder (ASX: LNW), Polynovo (ASX: PNV).
10 Randomly chosen Feature Downtrend Charts: Feature Downtrend charts:
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Important considerations when using the ChartWatch Daily ASX Scans:
1. The future is unknown. Anything can happen to change the trends in the lists above. A stock in a perfect uptrend or downtrend may not remain that way by the close of trading today. 2. These lists are not exhaustive, they are curated by Carl. You will find that certain stocks might not appear in a particular list on consecutive days but might reappear when Carl feels it deserves to return to the list. 3. This is not a recommendation service, merely an aid to help you better understand the workings of Carl’s technical analysis model in a practical way. Carl will not alert you to stocks that have dropped off a list because their trend has changed – it's up to you to apply the criteria to determine why a particular stock might not still be included. 4. This is general, educational information only – so always do your own research!!!
