ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 9th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, June 9. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

L1 Group appoints James Allaway as new CFO

[9:42 am] L1 Group announced the appointment of James Allaway as Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Andrew Stannard who has held the role since the Platinum merger.

• Allaway joins from FleetPartners where he was Chief Strategy Officer, and was previously a senior investment banker at UBS

• Commences in the CFO role in September 2026, with Stannard moving to an advisory role to support the transition before departing in early 2027

• Stannard has served as Finance Director of Platinum Asset Management since 2015 and oversaw the integration of Platinum and L1 Group's finance functions following the merger

Company page: L1 Group (L1G)

Gold undercuts the 200-day moving average

[9:40 am] Last Friday, gold officially closed below the 200-day moving average for the time since October 2023.

This ends a 660-day run above the 200-day, which is the 3rd longest in 56 years (my data only goes as far back as 1970). Here's a recap of previous streaks above the 200, ranked by duration.

Commodities: Friday tumble, small Monday bounce

[9:20 am] Commodities traded sharply lower last Friday, but most struggled to bounce on Monday. Here's a quick recap of how most major commodities have performed over the last two sessions.

Veem upgrades FY26 EBITDA guidance

[9:11 am] Veem flagged a significant H2 improvement led by Defence and propulsion, guiding FY26 EBITDA well above consensus, though revenue guidance came in slightly light.

• FY26 EBITDA guidance of $3.25-3.75m vs. $1.8m ests

• FY26 revenue guidance of $50-52m vs $53.1m ests

• Second half strength led by Defence, particularly fulfilment of ASC orders in hand, with propulsion order and sales recovery continuing from early in the calendar year

Company page: Veem (VEE)

Bain joins the bidding war for oOh!media, advised by Jefferies

[9:10 am] The AFR reports that Bain Capital has lobbed a non-binding offer for ASX-listed outdoor advertising business oOh!media, opening a three-way contest against PEP and I Squared.

• Bain's bid, prepared with advice from Jefferies Australia boss Michael Stock, was submitted around two weeks ago and remained live as of Sunday evening, though the price and whether due diligence was granted are not disclosed

• Sits against PEP's $1.40 per share bid (April) and I Squared's $1.45 per share offer, both knocked back on 11 May but granted limited due diligence

• oOh!media is the No.2 Australian outdoor advertising business, with 2025 calendar year revenue of $691.4m and underlying EBITDA of $139.1m

Source: AFR

S&P/ASX 200 rebalance: Five resources names in, growth and travel names out

[9:07 am] S&P announced the latest ASX 200 rebalance, effective prior to the open on 22 June, with a strong skew towards resources and defence on the way in.

• Additions: Elevra Lithium (ELV), Electro Optic Systems (EOS), FireFly Metals (FFM), Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN), Minerals 260 (MI6)

• Removals: Guzman Y Gomez (GYG), IDP Education (IEL), SiteMinder (SDR), Temple & Webster (TPW), WEB Travel Group (WEB)

Helloworld Travel cuts FY26 EBITDA guidance on Middle East disruption

[9:04 am] Helloworld lowered its FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance last Friday, after market close to $57-62 million from prior $64-72 million, with the new midpoint around 9% below consensus of $65.6 million.

• Q4 forward air sales down 4% year-on-year in both Australia and New Zealand, cycling 29% and 16% growth a year ago

• Cites Middle East flight interruptions and a shift to lower-yielding Asian carrier partners

• Final dividend guided in line with the interim dividend

Company page: Helloworld Travel (HLO)

Dexus updates on APAC injunction

[9:04 am] Dexus flagged a continuation of the APAC injunction to 22 June and separately commenced a strategic review of the infrastructure funds it acquired from AMP Capital in 2023.

• NSW Supreme Court orders extend the APAC injunction to 22 June, giving Dexus Bloc shareholders a window to seek further continuation via the NSW Court of Appeal or reach agreement with APAC on undertakings

• Proceeding listed for 9 September to determine claims for costs and indemnity from APAC and non-Dexus Bloc shareholders

• Strategic review covers DDIT, CommIF, DCIF, the Australia Pacific Airports Fund vehicles and infrastructure mandates and SMAs

• Infrastructure business represents $7.3bn of FUM as at 31 December 2025, around 20% of total third-party FUM, and contributes around $35m of post-tax management fees before associated costs

Company page: Dexus (DXS)

Insider trades: Weebit Nano, Navigator Global

[9:03 am] Two CEOs disclosed selldowns after Friday's close.

• Weebit Nano CEO Jacob Hanoch sold 225k shares, with his beneficial holding falling ~15% to 1.3m shares

• Navigator Global Investments CEO Stephen Darke bought 31k shares on-market, with his beneficial holding rising to 287k shares, an increase of around 12%

Company page: Navigator Global Investments (NGI), Weebit Nano (WBT)

Three central bank events frame the week, but all roads lead back to oil-driven inflation

[8:59 am] US CPI on Thursday is the dominant event, with the ECB decision and Bank of Canada hold both filtered through the same question of how much of the oil shock feeds into the policy outlook.

• US headline CPI seen accelerating to 4.2% y/y in May from 3.8%, with core ticking up to 2.9% from 2.8%, a core upside surprise the key risk for Treasury yields and equity valuations

• Fed funds futures now imply nearly 75% probability of at least one additional rate hike by year-end, with rate cuts effectively off the table after three consecutive solid payrolls prints

• ECB expected to lift the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25%, with focus on updated staff projections, downgrades to 2026 growth toward 0.3% to 0.5% would reinforce the emerging European stagflation narrative

• More than 60% of economists in a Reuters survey expect one further ECB hike, likely in September, though weaker growth signals could cap Euro upside

• Bank of Canada expected to hold at 2.25% with more than 80% of economists tipping no change through year-end, as policymakers look through energy-driven inflation against two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction

US payrolls smash May estimates, sealing strongest three-month run in over two years

[8:56 am] Last Friday's May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 doubled consensus, with hefty upward revisions to prior months pushing the three-month average to a near two-year high and shifting Fed pricing sharply hawkish.

• Headline payrolls of 172k vs 86k ests

  • April revised up 64k to 179k and prior two-month revisions adding 93k

  • Three-month average lifted to ~188k, the highest since the three months to March 2024

• Average hourly earnings rose 0.32% m/m vs 0.4% ests, a third straight monthly gain, with annualised pace easing to 3.4% from 3.6% in April

• Unemployment rate of 4.3% in line with ests and unchanged from April

• Private payrolls of 120k vs 115k ests, with leisure and hospitality (+70k), health care (+35k) and local government (+55k) leading, offset by financial activities (-22k) and air transportation (-9k, reflecting Spirit's bankruptcy)

• Policy-sensitive 2-year yield jumped post-print, with fed funds futures now pricing 21bp of hikes through year-end (up from 13bp pre-report) and fully pricing a hike by February, up from March previously

AI equity supply wave builds as SpaceX IPO heads for record $75bn raise

[8:55 am] Wall Street is weighing whether the market can absorb close to $4 trillion of incoming AI-related equity supply, with SpaceX's oversubscribed IPO leading a wave that also includes Anthropic, OpenAI and Alphabet's $85bn secondary raise.

• SpaceX is offering 555.6 million shares at $135 each to raise about $75bn at a $1.8 trillion valuation, set to top Saudi Aramco's $29.4bn record from 2019

• Institutional order books are expected to close Wednesday at 4pm New York time, with pricing on 11 June and trading the following day, and up to 30% of the offering allocated to retail

• SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs could add close to $4 trillion in market cap to US exchanges, with Alphabet planning to sell $85bn of stock next quarter

• Goldman Sachs estimates initial floats averaging under 10% typically balloon to around 46% within a year, implying roughly $1 trillion of additional equity supply by 2027 as lockups expire

• SpaceX had a $6.4bn operating loss last year and is priced at more than 90 times last year's sales at $135 a share, though oversubscribed demand suggests investors are looking through near-term losses

• Risk for incumbents: a Bloomberg basket of OpenAI-exposed stocks is up 33% YTD and Marvell Technology has soared 210%, with proxies likely to be sold once direct ownership of OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX becomes available, potentially also pressuring Nvidia, Broadcom and Tesla

• Nasdaq and FTSE Russell rule changes will speed index inclusion for SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, forcing passive funds to buy in size while trimming existing positions

Iran and Israel pull back from escalation as Trump pushes truce

[8:52 am] Both sides agreed to ease strikes after a weekend flare-up threatened to derail US-led ceasefire talks, though Lebanon and the Houthis remain potential escalation points.

• Brent crude fell 2.6% last Friday (US$92.79) and up 1.4% on Monday (US$94.10), though prices briefly rallied 5.7% on the latest Iran-Israel escalation

• Netanyahu said Israel would hold fire in Iran but reserved the right to respond, and rejected Iranian warnings against continued Israeli operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon

• Iran's military command warned that further Israeli strikes would prompt "much harsher and more crushing actions than before"

• Houthis launched a missile barrage on Israel, intercepted near Eilat, and declared a total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea

• A trickle of commercial shipping has returned to the Strait of Hormuz, though some vessels are transiting with digital transponders switched off

Source: Bloomberg

Aramco cuts Asia crude pricing for second month as Hormuz closure drags on

[8:51 am] Saudi Aramco lowered its flagship Arab Light premium to Asia by $6 a barrel for July, a deeper cut than expected, even as the price remains near multi-decade highs amid the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption.

• Arab Light premium to Asia cut to $9.50 a barrel above the regional benchmark, versus refiner and trader expectations of a $5 reduction

• European and Mediterranean grades cut by $10 a barrel, North American grades by $2

• Aramco continues to ship around 70% of pre-war export volumes via the cross-country pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, supplying west coast refineries

• OPEC+ lifted July production targets by 188,000 barrels a day, a largely symbolic move with Hormuz still mostly shut but signalling no restrictions on members pumping once the conflict resolves

BofA's Subramanian flags too many red flags, urges investors to take profits

[8:51 am] Bank of America's equity strategy team says 70% of its bear-market signposts have triggered, with the S&P 500 statistically expensive on 17 of 20 metrics, and is advising clients to take profits.

• Year-end S&P 500 target sits at 7,100, implying roughly 4% downside from Monday's close of 7,406

• The index trades rich versus tech bubble metrics on eight of 20 measures, with high P/E names leading low-multiple stocks by a wide margin in what strategists call a "sign of excessive speculation"

• Spread between best and worst performing tech quintiles is the widest since February 2000, while the gap between top and bottom S&P 500 decile returns over the past three months has hit a post-Covid high

• Hyperscaler capex as a percent of operating cash flow is forecast to reach nearly 100% by year-end, up from 40% in 2023, while cash flow conversion has flatlined and buybacks as a percent of market cap have slowed

• Subramanian sees opportunity in individual S&P 500 names rather than the cap-weighted index

JPMorgan trims tactical view as AI unwind risks more choppy weeks

[8:50 am] JPMorgan's trading desk has moved from bullish to "tactically cautious" on US stocks, flagging risk of further pullback as the AI trade unwinds and inflation data looms ahead of the Fed's 17 June decision.

• Andrew Tyler, head of global market intelligence, expects stocks to "take a couple weeks to find their footing" but maintains comfort buying the dip given strong fundamentals

• Recommends legging into positions over this week and next, citing bond market volatility, position unwinding, AI trade pullback risk and elevated equity issuance

• S&P 500 missed a 10th straight weekly gain after Friday's selloff, while the Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 5%, its worst session since Trump's April 2025 tariff rollout

• Tyler would turn bearish if upcoming inflation data lifts yields and tech earnings disappoint, but flagged progress on ending the US-Iran war as a potential bullish catalyst

Source: Bloomberg

Nvidia CEO calls tech selloff a buying opportunity, says AI buildout still early

[8:49 am] Nvidia's CEO told reporters in Seoul that investors should welcome the global tech rout as a chance to "buy at a discount", with the AI infrastructure cycle only just beginning.

• Huang framed AI as inevitable global infrastructure, comparing it to the internet and arguing the buildout is at the early stages

• Nvidia and SK Hynix signed a multi-year agreement to co-design next-generation memory chips for AI, a win for the South Korean memory maker over Samsung

Source: Bloomberg

Wall Street strategists shrug off selloff, lift S&P 500 targets

[8:48 am] Morgan Stanley and Citi are looking through last Friday's tech rout, pointing to broadening earnings upgrades and supportive macro data to underpin further upside into year-end.

• Citi's Scott Chronert raised his S&P 500 year-end target to 8,100 from 7,700, citing a "big step up" in earnings expectations and implying 9.7% upside from Friday's close

• Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson reiterated his 8,000 year-end call, framing the pullback as "inevitable and ultimately healthy" after a nine-week rally

• Morgan Stanley flagged cyclical sectors including consumer discretionary, transport and regional banks as positioned to outperform as crowded positioning in semis and memory normalises

• Wilson remained bullish through the Iran war-driven slump, a call vindicated as markets rallied back to record highs

Source: Bloomberg

Wall Street rout leaves nowhere to hide as AI trade cracks

[8:47 am] Last Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report triggered a violent reversal across stocks, bonds, gold and bitcoin, exposing the fragility of an AI-led rally that has driven nine straight weeks of S&P 500 gains.

• Nasdaq fell 4.2%, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index shedding more than $1 trillion in value, though the chip gauge remains up 73% year-to-date

• Rate-cut bets reversed sharply, with futures pricing a 43% chance of a Fed hike by year-end (up from 38%) and 27% odds of two or more (up from 12%)

• 2-year Treasury yield settled at 4.16%, the highest since February 2025, while the 10-year is now above 4.5%, up more than half a point since the Iran conflict

• Ray Dalio called the move "classic bubble stuff", flagging that bonds are now more attractively priced than stocks given stretched valuations and concentration in a single volatile sector

• A wave of mega equity issuance looms, including SpaceX's record IPO and Alphabet's surprise $85bn raise, with Arbion's Marco Pabst warning "the IPO window could close sooner than many expect"

Source: WSJ

Kospi crashes as AI-fuelled rally unravels

[8:46 am] South Korea's benchmark triggered a circuit breaker within three minutes of Monday's open, exposing the fragility of a retail-driven, AI-concentrated rally that had surged more than 200% over the past year.

• Kospi plunged nearly 9% at the open, triggering a circuit breaker, with small-cap trading suspended in the afternoon and only one of 19 subgauges finishing positive

• Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led declines with intraday losses of more than 10%, even after Nvidia announced a partnership with SK Hynix on next-generation AI memory chips

• Margin debt and leveraged ETF flows hit records ahead of the selloff, with Korea's 14 million retail traders ("ants") aggressively buying as foreign investors sold throughout 2026

• Friday's US tech selloff and a 42% wipeout in a triple-leveraged Korean ETF were the early warning signs, with the Kospi now down 15% from its June peak

• Despite the rout, the index remains up 162% over the past year, and Goldman's Timothy Moe called it "a technical correction in a longer-term bull market", with the bank's Kospi target recently lifted to 12,000 from 9,000

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are up 23 pts (+0.27%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Wall Street steadied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher, but Dow lower

• Friday's rout (Nasdaq down 4.18%, worst since April 2025) followed a hot May jobs report that pushed traders to price in a possible Fed hike

• US 2-year yield jumped 10 bps on the jobs report, with Fed funds futures pricing in 21 bps of hikes by year-end (vs. 13 bps prior to the report)

• Oil whipsawed on the first direct Israel-Iran exchange since April, Brent near US$94 after touching ~US$98, before Iran halted strikes

• Commodities traded broadly lower over the last two days, copper tumbled 4.0% last Friday but bounced 1.1% overnight