ASX 200 Live Today - Tuesday, 24th February

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Tuesday, February 24. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

ASX 200 slips for a third session

[2:10 pm] ASX 200 pretty rangebound today, with a session high of 0.32% and low of -0.43%, currently sitting around the midpoint, down 0.11%. A fairly weak session outside of the resource sector, with negative breadth (118 constituents (59%) trading lower) and sectors like Tech, Real Estate and Discretionary continuing to make fresh lows. Tech (-3.2%) undercut the 13-Feb low, now trading at levels not seen since October 2023. The index is down 47% from its 23 September record high. It feels like Claude is releasing a new feature every week that's disrupting another tech-related sector. Real Estate (-1.7%) is getting smashed, down three of the last four sessions (down 5.7%) to the lowest since April 2025. Discretionary also on a four day skid, down 7.3% to a fresh ten month low. Today's weakness was partially offset by strength from Energy (+1.2%), Materials (+0.76%) and Banks (+0.35%).

Woodside is trading 1.6% higher and set to close at the highest since September 2024. It's 2025 result today beat earnings and dividend expectations, with management outlining 2026 as a transition year, ahead of key project milestones at Scarborough, Louisiana LNG and Trion. Miners also strong, off the back of higher gold and lithium prices. BHP (+1.2%) also on track to close at a fourth straight all-time high. That's all for today. More heavy hitters reporting tomorrow, including Fortescue, Woolworths, Wisetech and more. Had some decent coverage today (although I missed a few like Viva and HMC). See you all tomorrow.

Tech stocks make fresh lows

[1:15 pm] The S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index is down 3.1% today, now down 9.7% in the last three sessions. Its undercut the recent low (13-Feb) and trading at the lowest since Nov-23.

A Morgan Stanley report from Monday had an epic line about tech stocks: "The de-rate in multiple is being sustained and our investor conversations see a focus on reasons to sell rather than buy. We are on watch for a bottom (given historical precedents) but feel that the answer to the disruption debate will found in global markets, not our local one."

Chinese lithium futures open sharply higher

[1:10 pm] Chinese markets are back after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. Lithium carbonate futures are up 7.2% to 159,300 yuan a tonne, the highest since 30-Jan but still down ~15% from recent highs of 189,400.

Local lithium names are trading broadly higher at noon, with Pilbara Minerals, Liontown Resources and MinRes all up 5-7%.

A lesson to Mader: Don't skip dividends

[12:09 pm] Mader elected to skip its interim dividend to accelerate the company's pathway to a net cash position and bolster its cash reserves to facility potential M&A opportunities.

For the full-year, Bell Potter was expecting a 10.4 cps (approx 1% yield, Mader's interim and final dividend are usually the same amount). Historically, Mader has paid a relatively small dividend, yielding 1.45-2.15% per annum since FY21.

However, if the market is expecting a dividend – the absolute worst thing you can do is skip it. Mader shares opened 4.5% lower, now down 12.5%.

Woodside 2025 earnings call highlights

[11:59 am] Woodside is trading marginally higher (+1.1%) after reporting a relatively slightly better-than-expected 2025 result. At the earnings call, management highlighted 2026 as a transition year with key catalysts ahead.

• Scarborough on track for first LNG cargo in Q4 2026, with the major Pluto turnaround in Q2 2026 incorporating Scarborough tie-ins, weighing on near-term production, costs and dividend flexibility.

• Decommissioning spend guided at $500-800m in 2026, with Bass Strait platform removals pushed to 2027, drydock maintenance across two Australian oil assets also scheduled for the year.

• Beaumont New Ammonia handover from OCI expected in H1 2026 with ramp-up to follow, though Phase II progress hinges on customer demand for low-carbon ammonia, which is tracking slower than anticipated.

• Louisiana LNG HoldCo sell-down of up to 20% targeted in 2026, with management characterising partner interest as strong and prioritising value over speed.

• Trion drilling campaign preparations commence in early 2026, with first oil targeted for 2028.

Kelsian beats across the board, guidance lifted upgraded

[11:25 am] Kelsian shares resumed trading at 11:00 am after the company decided to announce its 1H26 result at 10:49 am. The result was a broad-beat plus a guidance upgrade amid new contract wins and strong marine and tourism trading.

• Revenue up 11% to $1.19bn vs. $1.14bn ests (4% beat)

• Underlying EBITDA up 16% to $153.8m vs. $149.7m ests (3% beat)

• Underlying NPATA up 32% to $52.5m vs. $48.3m ests (9% beat)

• Interim dividend flat at 8.0 cps vs. 9.0 cps ests (11% miss)

• FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance lifted to $303-312m vs. prior guidance of $297-310m and ests of $306.1m (in line at midpoint)

• Key operational drivers include new US employee shuttle contracts, strong Marine and Tourism performance at K'gari and Sydney Harbour, and new contract wins in Queensland and Singapore, partially offset by ongoing Sydney bus contract challenges

Company page: Kelsian Group (KLS)

Data#3 tumbles on analyst downgrades

[11:12 am] Data#3 is trading 8.3% lower, following a 14% selloff on Monday. The company's 1H26 result was slightly ahead of expectations due to solid cost control and interest income, however, key metrics like gross profit and margins fell short. The selloff reflected concerns around its services business, weighed by delayed customer decision-making and tighter IT budgets. Here's what analysts are thinking:

• UBS maintained Neutral, lowered target from $9.35 to $8.50. Margin weakness overshadowed a solid profit result, with Services softness partially offset by Infrastructure strength and cost discipline.

• Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight, lowered target from $9.50 to $9.20. Services softness seen as tied to project delays rather than structural issues, with Software expected to rebound in the second half and earnings trajectory largely unchanged.

• Jarden downgraded to Underweight from Overweight, lowered target from $9.60 to $7.70. Gross profit guidance viewed as optimistic, Services trends disappointed, and the stock's valuation premium is increasingly under scrutiny.

• JPMorgan maintained Neutral, lowered target from $8.80 to $8.40. Vendor incentive changes pressured software margins, limited customer budget visibility and mix shift weighed on group profitability, with wage inflation in Services flagged as a further risk.

Upgrades galore for Imdex

[11:05 am] Imdex delivered a 1H26 result on Monday that broadly beat expectations across revenue, margins and earnings, with notable momentum in the second quarter. The stock rallied as much as 9.6% but finished the session up just 2.8%.

Multiple brokers upgraded the stock this morning, with the stock currently up 10.8% to fresh all-time highs.

• UBS upgraded to Buy from Neutral, raised target from $3.50 to $4.70. Exploration indicators and revenue acceleration signal a sustained upcycle, with operating leverage and digital acquisitions broadening the earnings base.

• Bell Potter upgraded to Buy from Hold, raised target from $3.60 to $4.60. Broad-based regional growth, rising global exploration budgets and strong cash generation drove an improved earnings outlook.

• Jarden upgraded to Underweight from Sell, raised target from $2.90 to $3.60. Described the result as a pivotal cycle moment, with earnings beats shifting a previously cautious stance, though junior participation is yet to fully emerge.

Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:32 am] Very results driven movers today, with Monadelphous and Viva Energy rallying off better-than-expected numbers and gold stocks broadly higher gold prices rallied 2.3% overnight to US$5,225/oz. ARB Corp sharply lower despite reporting preliminary results last month and Austal continues to tumble after report results on Monday.

Results movers: Monadelphous, Dalrymple Bay, ARB Corp and more

[10:25 am] A quick look at some of how today's reporters are moving:

• Monadelphous (+15.2%): Soaring to fresh all-time highs after its 1H26 numbers pretty much all tracking 3-15% ahead of consensus. FY26 revenue guidance upgraded to approximately 30% vs. market expectations of ~28%.

• Tyro Payments (+7.5%): Earnings beat, EBITDA margin of 33.6% up strongly vs. 28% in FY25.

• Dalrymple Bay (+6.4%): Trading at fresh all-time highs after upgrading its 2026 distribution guidance by 8% to 26.375 cps

• Cedar Woods (+5.2%): Up as much as 11% in early trade, 1H26 result was a strong beat and FY26 NPAT guidance upgraded to 30-35% growth vs. prior guidance of at least 20%

• ARB Corp (-14.9%): Trading at the lowest since August 2020 despite pre-announcing most of its 1H26 numbers last month.

Woodside beats earnings as record production drives strong 2025 result

[9:54 am] Woodside delivered a clean beat across all key metrics in CY25, with record production and world-class asset reliability underpinning a higher final dividend, though 2026 guidance points to lower volumes as major projects near completion.

• Operating revenue down 1% to $12.98bn vs. $12.90bn ests (1% beat)

• EBITDA flat at $9.28bn vs. $9.25bn ests (in line).

• Underlying NPAT down 8% to $2.65bn vs. $2.48bn ests (7% beat)

• Final dividend up 11% to 59 US cps

• Total dividend down 8% to 112 US cps vs. 106 US cps ests (5.6% beat)

• Record production of 198.8 MMboe with unit production costs reduced to $7.8/boe, alongside world-class reliability of 98.4% at KGP, 96.3% at Pluto LNG and 98.7% at Sangomar

• Scarborough 94% complete and Trion 50% complete at year end, with both projects supporting future production growth

• FY26 guidance: production of 172-186 MMboe and capex of $4.00-4.50bn

Company page: Woodside Energy (WDS)

ARB 1H26 lands in-line with preliminary announcement

[9:50 am] ARB provided preliminary 1H26 numbers on 12 January, which triggered a 12% selloff. Today's numbers should contain no surprises, though the dividend appears to be much higher than expected.

• Revenue down 1% to $358m, in line with preliminary

• NPAT down 18.8% to $42.2m vs. $42.2m ests (in line)

• Interim dividend of 34 cps vs. 27 cps ests (26% beat)

• 2H26 expected to improve on 1H, with sales margins broadly in line with 2H FY25, supported by Thai baht exposure nearly fully hedged at slightly favourable rates.

• Export order book has grown with continued US market momentum expected, though OEM sales remain constrained by inventory levels and weaker key vehicle model sales, with OEM trends expected to be marginally better than 1H25.

Company page: ARB Corporation (ARB)

Amaero eyes US IPO with planned re-domiciliation

[9:46 am] Amaero has entered a scheme implementation deed to re-domicile from Australia to the US, with a potential US IPO targeted for late CY26 or early CY27, as the company looks to access deeper capital markets for its advanced manufacturing business.

Existing shareholders will receive one CDI in the new US holding company per share held, with CDIs continuing to trade on the ASX.

Company page: Amaero (3DA)

Mader Group hits record revenue but defers dividend

[9:45 am] Mader delivered record H1 revenue with broad-based geographic growth, though NPAT came in below the single analyst estimate and the interim dividend was withheld to accelerate the path to net cash.

• Revenue up 18% to $485.2m vs. $488.0m ests (in line)

• NPAT up 17% to $30.5m vs. $33.0m ests (8% miss)

• No interim dividend declared vs. 4 cps year-ago, with the Board deferring the payment to accelerate the net cash target and preserve capacity for organic and inorganic growth

• Net debt reduced 57% to $3.6m at period end, down $4.7m from 30 June 2025.

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed, with revenue of at least $1bn and NPAT of at least $65m

The company deferred the interim dividend to bring forward the achievement of its net cash target and strengthening liquidity to support potential M&A activity. Since FY22, Mader has only yielded between 1.45% and 2.15%. However, deferring a dividend is never a good look. Bell Potter was expecting a full-year dividend of 10.4 cps (approx 1% yield).

Company page: Mader Group (MAD)

Nine beats estimates as strategic overhaul accelerates

[9:41 am] Nine delivered a strong first half amid a significant portfolio restructure across its radio, regional TV and outdoor media businesses.

• Revenue down 5% to $1.05bn vs. $1.15bn ests (9% miss)

• EBITDA up 6% to $192.2m vs. $192.9m ests (in line)

• NPAT up 30% to $95.2m vs. $78.5m ests (21% beat)

• Interim dividend up 30% to 6 cps

• Strategic restructure in motion: QMS acquisition expected to complete before end of June, Nine Radio sale by end of April, and NBN/Nine Darwin conversion to affiliate structures by end of May, subject to shareholder approval, with the combined moves expected to generate ~$184m in one-off cash tax loss benefits.

• Q3 FY26 total TV revenues expected to be broadly flat against a strong prior period, with FY26 Total TV costs now expected to be down mid-single digits on FY25.

• Stan expected to deliver strong EBITDA growth with revenue growth more than offsetting higher costs, and Nine Publishing digital subscription revenue growth expected to continue in the low-mid teens in Q3.

Company page: Nine Entertainment (NEC)

Tyro beats on earnings despite revenue miss as margins expand

[9:36 am] Tyro delivered a strong H1 profit result ahead of ests, with EBITDA margin expansion and disciplined cost management offsetting a softer revenue outcome.

• Revenue up 6% to $251.1m vs. $268.4m ests (6% miss)

• Normalised EBITDA up 20% to $39.5m vs. $36.4m ests (9% beat)

• EBITDA margin expanding to 33.6% (this reads v strong vs. 28% in FY25)

• Normalised NPAT of $17.8m vs. $14.3m ests (24% beat)

• Transaction value up 4% to $22.86bn

• Announced acquisition of Thriday, an AI-powered financial management tool for small businesses, alongside the launch of a new transaction account and loan product

• FY26 gross profit guidance of $230-240m reaffirmed, representing growth of 4.5-9.0%

At a glance, a very strong result on the margin front. It'll be interesting to see how Tyro trades given how badly fintech stocks were sold off overnight.

Company page: Tyro Payments (TYR)

Nanosonics steady as CORIS launch commences

[9:31 am] Nanosonics delivered a sound first half, with record upgrade activity in North America and the initiation of CORIS controlled market release as key operational highlights.

• Revenue up 9% to $102.2m vs. $105.3m ests (3% miss)

• Recurring revenue up 9% to $75.7m and capital revenue up 9% to $26.5m.

• EBIT down 3% to $8.4m vs. $8.5m ests (in line)

• NPAT down 1% to $9.6m vs. $9.1m ests (5% beat)

• Installed base grew to 38,080 devices, up 1,080 units, with North America upgrade sales up 61% to a record 980 units.

• CORIS controlled market release initiated following regulatory approvals in Europe, the UK, Australia and first FDA 510(k) submission in the US

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed, including revenue of $215-223m vs. $216.3m ests (in line at midpoint), gross margin of 75-77% and opex of $147-151m

Nanosonics shares have dwindled in recent years, down 20% in the last twelve months and down 51% since Feb-20.

Company page: Nanosonics (NAN)

Cuscal lifts FY26 outlook following solid first half and Indue acquisition

[9:27 am] Cuscal posted steady underlying earnings growth in the first half, with the recently completed Indue acquisition adding to net operating income and underpinning an upgraded full-year outlook. The company is still a relatively new (IPO'd in late 2024) listing, with low volumes and a ~$770 million market cap, so not much research/consensus numbers to work with.

• Revenue up 10% to $273.0m

• Total net operating income up 10% to $161.5m, with Indue contributing $5.3m following its 1 December 2025 completion

• Underlying NPAT up 13% to $24.2m

• Interim dividend of 4.5 cps

• FY26 underlying NPAT guidance upgraded to mid-teens growth, implying $43.0-44.9m vs. ests of $42.0m (2% beat at midpoint)

Indue expected to deliver EPS accretion of over 25% and ROIC of over 20% by FY29, with $15-20 million in annual post-tax cost synergies fully realised by FY29, though the acquisition is expected to be dilutive to statutory EPS in the first two financial years due to integration costs and client transition timing.

For context, the $75 million Indue acquisition was announced in parallel with Cuscal's FY25 result on 22 August 2025. Indue is an Authorised Deposit Taking Institution (ADI) and APRA-regulated, with extensive products and capabilities across the payments value chain.

The acquisition was viewed as relatively cheap, valuing Indue at 1.1x FY25 price-to-book ratio and 3.7x price-to-earnings, and estimated to generate an annual run rate cost synergies of $15-20 million after tax, with EPS accretion of more than 25% by FY29.

Company page: Cuscal (CCL)

Adore Beauty misses on earnings as store rollout gains pace

[9:23 am] Adore Beauty delivered revenue growth and record EBITDA in the first half. The stock is thinly covered, so estimates may be volatile.

• Revenue up 9% to $111.9m vs. $114.0m ests (2% miss)

• EBITDA up 15% to $4.1m vs. $6.2m ests (34% miss)

• Gross margin down 120 bps to 35.0% due to a stronger-than-expected Black Friday promotional period

• Underlying NPAT of $1.5m vs. $2.3m ests (35% miss)

• New customer acquisition costs fell 56% to $33, with new customer growth up 22% on the prior period

• 10 new stores opened in the half bringing the network to 18, with six further stores confirmed for CY2026 and the group on track for 25 stores by end of 2027.

• FY26 EBITDA margin guidance reaffirmed at 3-4%

Adore Beauty shares experienced a ~100% rally between Jun-Dec last year, though shares have dipped 32% YTD.

Company page: Adore Beauty Group (ABY)

Cedar Woods smashes estimates as record first half triggers guidance upgrade

[9:19 am] Cedar Woods delivered a standout first half result, well ahead of consensus expectations.

• Revenue up 40% to $274.8m vs. $266.3m ests (3% beat)

• Gross margins up 500 bps to 31%

• NPAT up 163% to $39.6m vs. $29.8m ests (33% beat)

• Interim dividend up 40% to 14 cps

• Pre-sales up 17% to $748m, with well over half of forecast FY27 revenue already presold

• FY26 NPAT guidance upgraded to 30-35% growth vs. prior guidance of at least 20%, with FY27 expected to deliver further growth

• Balance sheet remains conservative with gearing at 10% net bank debt-to-total tangible assets, net bank debt of $85.1m and over $170m in undrawn facilities

CWP has been an upgrade machine. At its FY25 result (26-Aug) the company guided to 10% NPAT growth for FY26, which was then upgraded to 15% growth in late October and upgraded again to "at least 20%" by late December. The stock has traded 7% lower YTD but up 42% in the last twelve months.

Company page: Cedar Woods Properties (CWP)

Dalrymple Bay lifts distribution guidance following capital allocation review

[9:12 am] DBI delivered a steady CY25 result with EBITDA in line with ests, while a capital allocation review has unlocked higher distributions and an upgraded payout trajectory.

• Adjusted EBITDA up 5% to $294.3m vs. $294.2m ests (in line)

• TIC Revenue up 4% to $307.6m, with total income up 11% to $848.0m

• Statutory NPAT of $29.2m, down sharply from $81.8m in the prior year, reflecting the refinancing of $1.07bn in loan facilities to repay 2020 USPP notes and cancel revolving credit facilities

• Q4-25 distribution of 6.75 cps, bringing total FY25 distributions to 24.625 cps, up 12% on FY24.

Dividend guidance:

• Distribution guidance upgraded to 26.375 cps, up 8% vs. prior guidance of 24.5 cps, with DBI targeting payout ratio towards the upper end of its 60-80% of FFO band.

• DBI continues to target DPS growth of 3-7% per annum, with DPS now up more than 22% over the past two TIC years while leverage remains consistent with end of FY23 levels.

Company page: Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI)

Monadelphous delivers record half on surging construction demand

[9:08 am] Monadelphous posted record revenue and earnings in the first half, beating estimates across all key metrics as engineering construction activity surged.

• Revenue up 46% to $1.53bn vs. $1.49bn ests (3% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 46% to $116.2m vs. $103.8m ests (12% beat)

• Underlying NPAT up 53% to $64.9m vs. $56.3m ests (15% beat)

• Interim dividend of 49 cps vs. 45.5 cps ests (8% beat)

• FY26 revenue guidance of approximately 30% vs. ests of ~27.9%, with 1H26 operating margins expected to be maintained

  • Citi EBITDA margin ests was 7.0% in 1H26 and 6.9% in 2H26

• Secured $1.4bn in new contracts and extensions since 1 July 2025, with Engineering Construction revenue up 67% and Maintenance and Industrial Services up 32%.

MND has had an incredible run, up 95.4% in the last twelve months. Though today highlights a broad beat across revenue, earnings, dividends and guidance.

Company page: Monadelphous Group (MND)

AUB Group lifts FY26 guidance as first half lands in line

[9:05 am] AUB delivered a steady first half result at the midpoint of guidance, with an upgraded full-year outlook underpinned by the pending Prestige acquisition and divisional step-ups.

• Revenue of $759.5m vs. $771.5m ests (1% miss)

• Underlying NPAT up 14% to $90.4m vs. $90.6m ests (in line)

• Interim dividend up 8% to 27 cps vs. 29.5 cps ests (8% miss)

• FY26 underlying NPAT guidance upgraded to $220-230m vs. prior guidance of $215-227m and ests of $226.3m (1% miss at the midpoint)

• CFO Nick Dryden formally confirmed in the role effective today, having served as Interim CFO since September 2025 following Mark Shanahan's departure

Company page: AUB Group (AUB)

Another busy day for corporate earnings

[9:01 am] Time to jump into some results. Notable reporters today include: Acrow (ACF), AMA Group (AMA), ARB Corporation (ARB), Artrya (AYA), AUB Group (AUB), BCI Minerals (BCI), Cedar Woods Properties (CWP), Cuscal (CCL), Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure (DBI), HMC Capital (HMC), Integral Diagnostics (IDX), Kelsian Group (KLS), MAAS Group Holdings (MGH), Mader Group (MAD), Monadelphous Group (MND), Nanosonics (NAN), Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings (NEC), Pacific Current Group (PAC), Propel Funeral Partners (PFP), Regal Partners (RPL), SKS Technologies Group (SKS), Southern Cross Media Group (SXL), Tasmea (TEA), Tyro Payments (TYR), Viva Energy Group (VEA), Vulcan Steel (VSL), Wagners Holding Co. (WGN), Woodside Energy Group (WDS).

AI scare trade hammers payments, delivery and IBM

[8:59 am] In addition to the Citrini note, updates from Anthropic triggered a sharp selloff across software, cybersecurity and consulting stocks, with IBM suffering its worst one-day drop in 25 years.

• IBM fell 13% after Anthropic flagged its Claude Code tool can assist in modernising COBOL, a programming language that largely runs on IBM systems, raising fears over IBM's core mainframe business.

• DoorDash, American Express, KKR and Blackstone all dipped more than 6%, while Uber, Mastercard, Visa, Capital One and Apollo dropped 4% or more.

• Anthropic's Claude security release smashed cybersecurity stocks like CrowdStrike (-9.8%)

• Deutsche Bank noted Mag 7/Tech positioning has now fallen to underweight, while Morgan Stanley flagged the 14-day RSI on Mag 7 names has dropped below 30 to its lowest since the 2023 selloff, a level that has historically preceded solid returns.

New York tightens the screws on BNPL

[8:55 am] New York Governor Hochul has announced proposed regulations targeting Buy Now, Pay Later lenders, introducing a comprehensive consumer protection framework for the sector.

• A licensing and supervision framework will be required for any entity offering BNPL products in New York, bringing the sector under formal regulatory oversight for the first time.

• Prohibiting excessive charges including convenience fees, and capping late and other penalty fees.

• Lenders must clearly disclose whether loans will be reported to credit agencies, and will be subject to mandated dispute resolution timelines and consumer data protections.

• The proposal enters a 10-day preproposal comment period now, followed by a 60-day public comment period upon State Register publication.

• The law takes effect 180 days after adoption, with a transitional period for existing BNPL providers already operating in New York.

BNPL stocks traded sharply lower overnight, including Block (-4.6%), Affirm (-7.7%) and Sezzle (-9.9%). Not a good look for Zip.

OpenAI lifts both revenue and cash burn foecasts

[8:52 am] Revised projections show OpenAI lifting five-year revenue forecasts by 27% while doubling its expected cash burn to $112 billion, raising fresh questions about the path to profitability.

• Cash burn now forecast at $112bn over five years, double the prior estimate, with total planned spend rising to $600bn by 2030 after Altman flagged $1.4tn in infrastructure commitments in November.

• Stargate JV showing cracks: data centres remain understaffed, disagreements with SoftBank over development strategy, and OpenAI missed its goal of 10GW of capacity commitments through Oracle/SoftBank by end of 2025.

• OpenAI attempted to build its own data centres but failed to secure financing, and is now reverting to Oracle and SoftBank for bilateral deals, a notable step back from its independence ambitions.

• AI financing pressures broadening: data centre developers are seeking credit ratings to unlock new capital pools, while surging hyperscaler capex is adding to bond market indigestion already strained by large public deficits.

US Financials sharply lower

[8:49 am] Financials (-3.3%) was the worst performing S&P 500 sector overnight after the Citrini report said AI agents will eventually transact on Stablecoin payment rails and bypass interchange.

Investment banks traded sharply lower, with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs down 3-5%.

Credit card stocks including Visa, Mastercard and American Express tumbled 4-8%.

The Citrini report: "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis"

[8:45 am] A report by Citrini Research titled "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" is doing the rounds and widely viewed as what drove tech (software, fintech and financials) lower overnight. Here's a link to the report.

• By October 2026 in the scenario, the S&P soars to 8,000 and Nasdaq breaks 30,000 on margin expansion from AI-driven layoffs

• The consumer economy quietly hollows out as "Ghost GDP" emerges, output that prints in national accounts but never circulates through households

• The displacement spiral is self-reinforcing with no natural brake as AI improves, companies cut headcount, savings fund more AI investment, displaced workers flood lower-wage gig roles, compressing wages across the board, with the top 20% of earners driving ~65% of discretionary spend bearing the brunt

• Intermediation moats built on human friction (DoorDash, travel platforms, real estate commissions, insurance renewals) collapse as agentic commerce optimises every transaction 24/7

• Machine-to-machine settlement via stablecoins begins routing around the 2-3% card interchange model, hitting Mastercard, Visa, Amex and mono-line issuers

• Private credit becomes the financial accelerant as $2.5 trillion in PE-backed software debt, much of it underwritten on ARR assumptions that AI made obsolete, begins defaulting in Q3 2027

• The mortgage market is the final and largest domino, with $13 trillion in prime loans now structurally impaired not by bad underwriting but by the income assumptions underneath them becoming invalid

Good morning!

[8:33 am] ASX 200 futures are up 21 pts (+0.23%) as of 8:30 am AEDT.

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks lower and finished near worst levels

• Risk-off theme driven by a Citrini report and Claude updates (now disruption cybersecurity and consulting stocks)

• Gold up another 2.4% overnight, now up over 7% in the last four sessions and back above US$5,200/oz

• Defensives like Staples, Healthcare and Utilities finished the session higher, despite elevated multiples (e.g. Walmart rallied 2.2% but trades at 45x)