ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 3rd August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, August 3. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Transurban finalises NSW toll reform Direct Deal and posts stronger June traffic

[9:32 am] Transurban has welcomed the finalisation of the NSW Government's toll reform Direct Deal, saying it preserves existing concession value without hitting near-term distributions, alongside a rebound in June traffic.

• NSW toll reform Direct Deal finalised, expected to deliver enduring benefits for motorists while preserving existing concession value and not negatively impacting near-term distributions, subject to definitive agreements and approvals

• Key changes include toll price reductions on the M2, M7, LCT and CCT, two-way tolling on the Eastern Distributor at 53% of the status quo inbound toll, a new motorcycle class, and the proposed M7-M2 Widening to three lanes

• Group June traffic up 3.8% on pcp, or up 2.4% excluding WGT, with Sydney up 2.5% as M7-M12 construction impacts eased and Melbourne up 6.1% driven by WGT

• North America traffic up 6.9% on continued Express Lanes demand, with average dynamic toll prices up 18.9% on the 95 Express Lanes and 36.1% on the 495 Express Lanes

• Large vehicle traffic up 11.8% across the Australian portfolio, or 5.6% excluding WGT, rebounding from softer May growth

Company page: Transurban Group (TCL)

SKS Technologies flags FY26 profit ahead of guidance

[9:19 am] SKS Technologies expects unaudited full-year profit before tax to come in comfortably above its February guidance on higher revenue and continued operational discipline.

• Revenue of $347.9m vs. $340m guidance (2% ahead)

• PBT expected at $39.3m vs. $34m guidance (15.6% ahead)

• Before-tax profit margin of 11.3% vs. the 10% guided (130 bps ahead)

• Operational leverage the driver with investment in systems, processes and personnel enabling revenue growth to convert into profit at an increasing rate without a corresponding rise in overheads

• CEO Matthew Jinks attributed the uplift to disciplined execution, operational excellence and delivering projects more efficiently

• FY26 results due 18 August 2026

SKS has been a major beneficiary of surging data centre spend, with the stock up 220% in the last twelve months, though down 25% from its 22 June record high.

Company page: SKS Technologies Group (SKS)

Niobium and copper hits take the spotlight

[9:16 am] Here's a wrap of the latest drilling and development updates across the junior space this morning.

• Antipa Minerals intersected broad gold-copper-lead-silver mineralisation over roughly 500m of strike at Tim's Dome, directly above an untested 1.2km AEM conductor that firms as a priority Telfer-style reef target 11km from Greatland's Telfer mine.

• Encounter Resources expanded high-grade niobium at its Aileron project, with standout Green deposit hits including 53m @ 2.9% Nb2O5 from 79m and 75m @ 2.4% Nb2O5 from 43m.

• Solstice Minerals extended copper mineralisation well beyond its Nanadie resource, including 51m @ 1.03% Cu, 0.29g/t Au from 194m and a combined 629.1m @ 0.50% Cu, 0.17g/t Au from surface in diamond tail NANRCD004.

• FireFly Metals returned more high-grade copper-gold from Green Bay, including 11.5m @ 13.2% CuEq (11.1% Cu, 2.1g/t Au), feeding an updated resource and economic study due this month.

• Sun Silver hit 28.2m @ 80g/t AgEq from 150.9m and high-grade silver outside its current resource of 8.3m @ 170g/t AgEq from 266.3m at Maverick Springs.

• Kali Metals identified a tin-tungsten vein swarm at Mt Cudgewa (rock chips up to 6.00% SnO2)

Company page: Antipa Minerals (AZY), Encounter Resources (ENR), Solstice Minerals (SLS), FireFly Metals (FFM), Sun Silver (SS1), Kali Metals (KM1)

Diggers & Dealers kicks off in Kalgoorlie

[9:06 am] Australia's marquee mining forum runs 3-5 August in Kalgoorlie, with a heavy line-up of gold, lithium, uranium and rare earths names presenting across the three days.

• Monday 3 August presenters include Northern Star (NST), Evolution Mining (EVN), Liontown Resources (LTR), Arafura Rare Earths (ARU), Firefly Metals (FFM), Bellevue Gold (BNZ) and Gold Fields (GFI)

• Tuesday 4 August features Ramelius Resources (RMS), Capricorn Metals (CMM), West African Resources (WAF), Alkane Resources (ALK), Boss Energy (BOE), Hastings Technology Metals (HAS) and Australian Strategic Materials (ASM)

• Wednesday 5 August rounds out with Pilbara Minerals (PLS), WA1 Resources (WA1), Emerald Resources (EMR), Genesis Minerals (GMD), Regis Resources (RRL), Bellevue Gold (BGL) and 29Metals (29M)

Source: Diggers and Dealers

Regis to acquire Royal Freemasons' Victorian home care business

[9:05 am] Regis has struck a binding deal to buy Royal Freemasons Homes of Victoria's home care business, lifting its scale in Melbourne and boosting annualised home care revenue.

• Binding agreement to acquire Royal Freemasons Homes of Victoria's home care business, with approximately 480 clients across Support at Home and Commonwealth Home Support Programme services

• Home care revenue to rise more than $10m, taking annualised revenue to approximately $50m

• Funded from existing cash with completion expected in 2Q FY27, subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions

• Strategic fit in Melbourne with CEO Andrew Kinkade pointing to industry tailwinds including an ageing population, increased government funding and a growing preference to age in place

Company page: Regis Healthcare (REG)

FleetPartners receives takeover approach from SG Fleet

[9:00 am] FleetPartners has disclosed an unsolicited, non-binding proposal from SG Fleet, backed by Pacific Equity Partners, at a 27% premium to the last close.

• Indicative proposal at $3.60 per share, a 27% premium to the $2.83 last close, to acquire 100% of FleetPartners via a scheme of arrangement

• From SG Fleet Topco with the support of majority owner Pacific Equity Partners and its affiliates, delivered unsolicited after market close on Friday 31 July

• Subject to numerous conditions including due diligence, the accuracy of certain financial and operational assumptions, a scheme implementation agreement, and FIRB, ACCC and NZCC approvals

• Board evaluating the proposal with advisers and will update shareholders in due course, noting no certainty a binding offer or transaction will eventuate

Company page: FleetPartners Group (FPR)

Pinnacle weighs a bid for Bennelong Funds Management

[8:57 am] Pinnacle is in active talks over embattled Bennelong Funds Management, exploring either a full takeover or a break-up using its existing affiliates, the AFR reports.

• Pinnacle in active negotiations with Bennelong, exploring an all-of-company proposal while also weighing a break-up involving its existing affiliates

• Bennelong client assets shrunk to $6.5bn at the end of 2025 after poor returns from its flagship Mark East-run funds, prompting owner Jeff Chapman to launch an auction via Berkshire Global Advisors

• No offer submitted yet with Pinnacle yet to lodge a non-binding indicative bid and no certainty of a deal, the spokesperson noting it continuously evaluates strategic opportunities

• Source: AFR

ResMed hit with Class I recall on Astral ventilators over faulty component

[8:56 am] The FDA has classified ResMed's correction of certain Astral 100 and 150 ventilators as its most serious recall type after a component fault that can cause therapy to stop.

• FDA classified the recall as Class I on 31 July, its most serious category, meaning the devices may cause serious injury or death if used without correction

• A supercapacitor may leak over time, damaging circuitry on the printed circuit board and causing the ventilator to enter a fail-safe state that halts therapy and triggers a maximum-volume alarm

• Affected units are Astral 100 and 150 ventilators built prior to October 2024, plus related PCBA spare parts, with patients told not to stop using devices unless advised by their clinician

• Five serious injuries and no deaths reported as of 23 June associated with the issue

• Correction is supply-constrained with PCBA availability limited, prompting a prioritised, phased approach focused on highest-risk patients, and new patients advised to consider alternative ventilators

• Astral supply also disrupted as the component constraints are expected to hit availability of new units, not just corrections

Company page: ResMed (RMD) | Source: FDA

China's factory activity unexpectedly slips back into contraction in July

[8:53 am] Chinese PMI data last Friday was broadly weaker-than-expected, with the manufacturing PMI below the key 50 mark for the first time since February as domestic demand slumped and typhoons disrupted production, piling pressure on Beijing to boost demand.

• Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June, below the 50 forecast and the weakest since February, ending a four-month run at or above the expansion threshold

• New orders sub-index dropped to 48.5, the lowest in 38 months, with Capital Economics pointing to domestic weakness as largely to blame while export orders softened only slightly

• Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49, from 50.2, with construction activity slumping to a record low 47.0 and services at their weakest since the initial Covid lockdowns

• Composite PMI dropped to 49.3, the lowest since the pandemic ended in 2022, as weakness spread well beyond manufacturing

• Export engine showing strain with US-bound shipments falling for the first time in several months, a sharp reversal from June's 14% jump that had helped overall exports surge 27%

S&P 500 earnings season tracking well ahead of expectations

[8:53 am] FactSet's latest Earnings Insight shows Q2 S&P 500 profit growth running at more than double the pace expected at quarter-end, with beat rates comfortably above historical averages.

• Blended EPS growth of 47.4% for Q2 S&P 500, well above the 23.2% expected at the end of the quarter, with blended revenue growth of 14.1%

• 86% of reporters have beaten EPS ests across the 61% of companies that have reported, above the 80% one-year average and 78% five-year average

• 77% have topped sales ests, below the 78% one-year average but above the 70% five-year average

Fed dissenters lay out the case for a rate hike

[8:51 am] Three regional Fed presidents who dissented at this week's meeting released statements defending their push for a 25 bp hike, with sticky above-target inflation the common thread.

• Regional Fed Presidents Hammack (Cleveland), Logan (Dallas) and Kashkari (Minneapolis) released statements explaining their dissents favouring a 25 bp hike at last week's FOMC meeting, which saw the committee vote 9-3 to hold rates steady, with concern about inflation remaining persistently above the 2% target the common theme

• Hammack said inflation has been too high for too long, adding it is a more pressing problem than employment and that she is not confident it will return to target on its own, noting the pressures are coming from the demand side and a hike could help reduce them

• Logan said even accounting for productivity gains and temporary supply shocks, inflation is trending toward the mid-2s with risks to the upside, arguing it will likely keep running above target until an unanticipated shock hits, which cannot be counted upon

• Kashkari said while theory suggests policymakers look through supply shocks, policy should also address a series of successive shocks that might entrench higher inflation, adding a run of small moves would be better than waiting until bolder action is needed

Trump halts Iran strikes as Hormuz reopening deal hangs in the balance

[8:48 am] Trump has paused new strikes on Iran after regional powers signalled a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though Tehran denies asking for the halt and the waterway remains shut.

• Trump agreed to cancel the attack subject to rapidly making a deal that would deliver the immediate and total opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran's nuclear threat, with Israel joining the commitment

• Iran denies the premise, calling Trump's claim it sought a pause a fresh lie, with the strait still shut and Iran insisting it will never return to the pre-war status quo

• Iran-Oman talks in final stages on a new route through the strait, though the discussions do not cover whether it stays open or closed, leaving the core dispute unresolved

• OPEC+ agreed another token September increase, completing the theoretical revival of supplies halted in 2023 and creating scope to add barrels once the war ends

• Escalation risk persists with Houthis threatening the Bab el-Mandeb, US Patriot interceptor stocks reportedly down to under 827 from about 2,300 pre-war, and analysts warning any pause will not hold without a clear Hormuz agreement

Brent is trading 7.5% lower to US$84.19 a barrel this morning, down 17% from the recent 23 July high (US$102) but still ~20% above the 2 July low (US$70.1).

Brent crude price chart (Source: TradingView)

Yen braces for more intervention as Japan and the US join forces

[8:45 am] A rare coordinated intervention by Japan and the US has driven the yen's sharpest rebound in almost two years, with traders on high alert for further action as the partnership goes public.

• Coordinated operations reversed two months of losses in just two sessions, using direct purchases, rate checks and jawboning from Bessent and Katayama

• Thursday's intervention totalled around Y8.45tn (US$52.8bn), likely Tokyo's biggest-ever single-day effort, with the yen jumping more than 3% intraday, and the New York Fed sold euros to buy yen for the US Treasury on Friday

• South Korea sold dollars alongside Japan, lifting the won 2% to a nine-month high, with analysts noting the tightly coupled currencies could double the impact

• Finance Minister Katayama set to announce the US partnership as early as Monday, formalising cooperation not seen in decades and raising the stakes for anyone shorting the yen

• BOJ held rates at 1% on an 8-1 vote, with Ueda opening the door to future hikes without signalling urgency, leaving the yen short of a lasting policy catalyst

• Doubts persist on durability given persistent budget deficits, rising oil prices and a wide US-Japan rate gap, with strategists framing intervention as buying time rather than a trend reversal, and Japan's Treasury sales posing a lurking risk to US yields

US Dollar / Japanese Yen chart (Source: TradingView)

Microsoft sets record with near US$450bn single-day gain

[8:40 am] Microsoft added the largest one-day market value gain on record after forecasting stronger than expected cloud growth and reaffirming its spending plans.

• Shares closed up 15.5% on Thursday, lifting market cap to US$3.35tn and surpassing Nvidia's prior record one-day gain of US$441bn from April 2025

• Azure guided to 45% growth on a constant-currency basis in the first quarter, well above the 40.9% ests

• Capex plans unchanged at US$50bn for fiscal Q1 2027 and US$175bn for the 2026 calendar year, easing fears spending would outpace demand

• At least nine brokerages lifted targets, with the mean now US$560.90

• Still lagging peers with the stock down more than 18% this year up to Wednesday's close before the result

Citadel buy halts the AI selloff as leverage unwind nears its end

[8:39 am] A Citadel deal to snap up Situational Awareness's remaining equities has triggered a relief rally in AI stocks, though traders question whether other over-levered funds remain.

• Kospi surged a record 18% on Friday after a three-day rout, with Taiwan up 8% and Japan's Nikkei 225 up 4%, as forced liquidations eased

• Situational Awareness assets collapsed from US$45bn at the start of July to about US$10bn, forcing the fund to liquidate positions to meet margin calls before Citadel bought the bulk at a discount

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index still down over 20% for July despite the rebound, its worst month since the global financial crisis

• Kospi finished July 22% lower, dragged by SK Hynix and Samsung, after record margin loans unwound and retail traders were blown out

• Korean leveraged ETF AUM plunged to US$4.1bn as of Thursday from over US$11bn on 25 June, with the government pledging to limit retail participation

• Contagion fears linger as investors draw comparisons to LTCM in 1998 and Bear Stearns in 2008, questioning whether other funds share similar AI and semis concentration

Source: Bloomberg

AI spending discipline splits the market this earnings season

[8:38 am] Investors are rewarding tech names that hold the line on AI capex while punishing those signalling more spending, even as broad profits surge.

• S&P 500 EPS tracking up 29% in Q2, among the highest on record outside post-crisis recovery years, yet the index has gone nowhere since the season began in mid-July

• Meta sank 8% after a soft revenue forecast and its lowest free cash flow in years, a sign of ballooning AI expenses, with Alphabet also penalised for flagging higher capex

• Microsoft soared 16% adding nearly half a trillion in market value on the fastest cloud growth in four years and restraint on new capital spending, while Amazon jumped 15% on upbeat cloud revenue

• Europe outperforming with the Stoxx 600 up 1.3% and briefly at a record on a 19% profit surge, helped by lower tech concentration

• AI supply chain back in favour with a UBS basket of AI winners rallying 11% over two sessions, alongside gains for Lam Research, Schneider Electric and Prysmian

• US earnings revisions net positive for 15 straight weeks, the longest streak since 2022, with financials, energy and healthcare leading beats

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:20 am] ASX 200 futures are down 85 pts (-0.95%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks mostly higher to cap a volatile July, with Amazon's biggest one-day gain in more than a decade offsetting a slump in Apple and another push higher in long-end Treasury yields

• S&P 500 (+0.70%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.17%), Nasdaq (+1.00%), Dow (+0.53%), Russell 2000 (-0.50%)

• Trump said late Saturday he had cancelled a planned strike on Iran after being told the "perimeters" of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz had been agreed, though Tehran denies asking for the pause

• Tokyo and Washington conducted their first joint yen intervention since 2011, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama due to confirm the operation on Monday and the BOJ signalling a September hike