ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 29th June

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, June 29. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Three ASX miners lift resource and reserve estimates across

[9:26 am] Here's a round-up of fresh resource and reserve upgrades from Black Cat Syndicate, Greatland Resources and Metals X.

• Black Cat Syndicate: Combined Trojan and Imperial resources lift to 286koz, with Trojan up 62% to 202koz from 125koz and a new 84koz Imperial resource that is 81% Indicated and open along strike and down dip

• Greatland Resources: Group ore reserve grows 62% to 5.0Moz gold and 196kt copper, led by Telfer up 1.1Moz to 1.8Moz (+150%) and West Dome open pit up 1.1Moz to 1.4Moz (+375%), with a maiden Main Dome underground reserve of 0.2Moz

• Metals X: Renison resource now 21.8Mt at 1.38% tin for 300.3kt contained tin, with Measured and Indicated tin up 7% to 264.1kt and Inferred down 19% to 36.0kt

Select Harvests names Kristina Hermanson as new CEO

[9:26 am] Select Harvests has appointed agribusiness executive Kristina Hermanson as its incoming managing director and CEO.

• Hermanson joins from Nuveen Natural Capital, where she was Head of APAC & Africa overseeing approx $3bn in assets across 74 agricultural properties spanning almonds, macadamias and viticulture

• Previously held senior roles at FMC Corporation, Coca-Cola Amatil and Archer Daniels Midland, including close to a decade at ADM in P&L, M&A and integration roles

Company page: Select Harvests (SHV)

Champion Iron produces first direct reduction quality iron ore at Bloom Lake

[9:25 am] Champion Iron has produced its first direct reduction quality iron ore from the DRPF project and inked an inaugural offtake agreement.

• Inaugural commercial sale of a Capesize vessel carrying at least 160,000 wet metric tonnes of DR quality iron ore expected in Q3 2026

• DRPF project completed within its $500m budget, with capacity to ramp gradually to commercial production toward the end of the current financial year

• Project upgrades half of Bloom Lake's capacity to DR quality pellet feed grading up to 69% Fe, with combined silica and alumina below 1.2%

• Higher-purity product could attract a considerable pricing premium over the existing 66.2% Fe concentrate

• Company has signed a commercial agreement covering part of near-term capacity and is in talks with several global customers for remaining volumes

Company page: Champion Iron (CIA)

Bannerman advances Etango early works with bulk earthworks 92% complete

[9:24 am] Bannerman Energy says construction early works at its Etango Uranium Project in Namibia remain on budget and schedule.

• Contractor workforce on site exceeds 560 personnel, with 1.1 million LTI-free hours achieved to date

• Bulk earthworks approx 92% complete, with focus on the freshwater pond, wet plant terraces and heap leach pad

Company page: Bannerman Energy (BMN)

A mixed overnight session for commodities

[9:23 am] Commodities like gold and copper bounced last Friday, while Brent continued to trade towards pre-war levels.

EchoIQ readies $100m raise to capitalise on 600% run

[9:14 am] EchoIQ is wall-crossing investors for a $100 million placement priced at $1.45 a share, an 8.8% discount to the last close, according to the AFR.

• Raising comes after a more than 600% share price gain over the past year, lifting the structural heart disease AI group to a market cap above $1bn

• Ord Minnett is lead manager with Morgans as co-manager, the same broker that raised $17.3m for EchoIQ a year ago when its market cap was just $200m

• Follows last week's deal with Pro Medicus, which will take a $10m strategic stake and resell the EchoSolv suite in the US, with an option for a further $10m on EchoSolv HF FDA clearance

• Shares jumped more than 30% on the Pro Medicus news

• Fund manager Plato is short the stock, flagging 13 red flags including four name changes since 2014, large share issuance and negative operating cash flows

Source: AFR

ASX 200 stocks making 52-week highs and lows

[9:10 am] Here are the stocks that tagged a 52-week high and low last week.

New Zealand dollar braces for weak third quarter on growth headwinds

[9:01 am] The kiwi faces a subdued quarter as a stronger US dollar and the lingering damage from the Iran energy shock weigh on the domestic recovery.

• The kiwi has fallen about 5.8% in June to 56.41 US cents, on track for its biggest monthly drop since 2024

• Westpac forecasts 55 US cents by end-July, while ABN Amro sees it dipping below the November low of around 55.8 cents

• Westpac's Imre Speizer said he remains bearish and would sell a bounce to around 57 cents

• The reversal follows a strong start to the year when traders priced rapid RBNZ hikes, expectations since dialled back

• Local swaps fully price two RBNZ hikes by year-end and a 30% chance of a third, which Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur called too much

Source: Bloomberg

Australian inflation seen peaking at 4.25%, below earlier forecast

[8:59 am] Treasurer Jim Chalmers said headline inflation should peak around 4.25% mid-year, lower than previously forecast, as falling oil prices ease price pressures.

• The peak is below Treasury's May budget forecast of 5% through the June quarter

• Budget projections had inflation declining to 2.5% by mid-2027

• Chalmers said lower oil prices and Middle East peace progress accelerated the improvement, stressing the need for the ceasefire to hold

• Headline CPI rose 4% in the latest data, below the 4.3% economists expected

• Trimmed mean inflation rose 3.6%, just above the 3.5% forecast

• Chalmers said underlying inflation was also moving ahead of schedule, with updated Treasury forecasts due mid-year

Source: Bloomberg

Sydney auction clearances slump to six-year low as rates and tax changes bite

[8:57 am] Sydney recorded its weakest weekend auction clearance rate in more than six years as higher rates and new property tax reforms weigh on demand.

• Sydney's preliminary clearance rate fell to 47.3%, the lowest since April 2020, with Melbourne at 40.2%, the lowest since September 2021

• The national preliminary rate of 49.2% is likely to settle in the low 40% range once finalised, Cotality's Tim Lawless said

• Auction volumes nationally fell 13.4% year on year

• New property tax reforms passed parliament last week, limiting investor tax breaks on existing housing and raising capital gains taxes

• Sydney house prices fell 2.7% between 31 March and 25 June, with Melbourne down 2.3%, per Bloomberg Economics

• The downturn has wiped A$185 billion ($128 billion) from the two markets' value

• Bloomberg Economics' James McIntyre said a deeper slump could force RBA rate cuts before end-2026

Source: Bloomberg

US Prime Day online spending tops US$26bn, beating Adobe estimate

[8:52 am] Online spending across all US retailers reached US$26.4 billion during Amazon's four-day Prime Day, narrowly beating Adobe's US$26.3 billion estimate.

• Total spending rose 9.3% on last year's July event, according to Adobe

• The steepest discounts were in electronics and apparel, both averaging about 24%, similar to last year

• Buy now, pay later features made up 6.6% of all orders

• Numerator said average household spending on Amazon fell 8.3% to US$143 over the four days

• Top sellers included protein shakes, trash bags and cat treats, per Numerator

• PMG said Amazon discounts were shallower than last year

• Amazon said it was pleased with the customer response and earlier called external Prime Day data often inaccurate

Source: Bloomberg

Economists pare ECB rate-hike bets as oil unwinds wartime gains

[8:48 am] A sharp fall in oil prices following progress in US-Iran talks has prompted several economists to scale back expectations for further ECB rate increases.

• Oxford Economics no longer expects moves beyond this month's first hike since 2023, citing the energy price drop cutting the inflation spike short

• Chief Germany economist Oliver Rakau said the growth-inflation trade-off now favours a hawkish pause amid weak demand and a softening labour market

• Capital Economics shifted to a "one and done" call, while Nomura and RBC reduced their forecast number of hikes

• Brent erased all its wartime gains, falling below its pre-war close of $72.48 a barrel as Hormuz flows ramped up

• Markets still fully price one quarter-point hike this year, with euro-area inflation at 3.2%

• Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel argued more action is needed and warned the ceasefire was no reason to let down guard, citing still-elevated forward energy prices

• Barclays' Christian Keller said chances are very good the ECB stops at 2.5% after one more hike, with RBC expecting a final hike in September

Source: Bloomberg

Goolsbee and Williams flag inflation focus as core PCE hits highest since 2023

[8:46 am] Two Fed officials signalled inflation remains the priority and ruled out near-term rate moves after data showed core PCE at its hottest in 19 months.

• Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee said inflation is still trending the wrong way despite some improvement in services prices

• New York Fed's John Williams said he expects inflation to start trending lower but is comfortable with rates at current levels

• Williams sees inflation falling to 3.5% this year from 4.1%, then onto a glide path to 2% by 2028

• Core PCE rose to 3.4% in May, its highest since October 2023, with goods up 0.4% and services up 0.5%

• Energy jumped 6.5% on the goods side, while transportation services accelerated 0.8%

• Goolsbee backed new Chair Kevin Warsh's move to strip forward guidance from FOMC communications

• Markets price about a 30% chance of a hike at the 28-29 July meeting, per CME FedWatch

Source: CNBC, Bloomberg

US and Iran agree to halt strikes ahead of Hormuz talks, says Axios

[8:39 am] Washington and Tehran have agreed to stop attacking each other before peace talks resume this week, easing a fragile truce tested by days of tit-for-tat strikes over the Strait of Hormuz.

• US officials told Axios both sides agreed to stand down and that vessels could move freely as negotiations continue

• Talks resuming in Doha will now focus on reopening the strait, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and gas flows, rather than only Iran's nuclear program

• The clashes began Thursday when Iran struck a container ship, prompting US strikes, with further US strikes overnight Saturday after Iran hit a vessel carrying Qatari oil

• Iran's IRGC said it launched missiles and drones at the Ali Al Salem base in Kuwait and the 5th Fleet base in Bahrain, with Kuwait intercepting two missiles and Bahrain reporting a building hit but no fatalities

• Trump warned the US could be "forced to militarily complete the job" if talks fail

• The Joint Maritime Information Center raised the Hormuz threat level to "substantial" and flagged a potential mine area across much of the transit route

• The two sides remain at odds over whether Iran will impose tolls on ships using the strait

Source: Bloomberg, Axios

Volkswagen weighs cutting up to 100,000 jobs and closing four German plants

[8:34 am] CEO Oliver Blume is preparing a deeper restructuring that would double planned job cuts and shutter factories as the automaker battles tariffs, China weakness and rising competition.

• Plans presented to the management board would lift staff reductions to as many as 100,000, from a current workforce of around 657,000, according to Manager Magazin

• The strategy targets €11 billion (US$12.5 billion) in overhead cost cuts by the end of the decade

• Four German plants would close in the medium term, including an Audi site in Neckarsulm and VW plants in Hanover, Zwickau and Emden

• The plan goes to the supervisory board next month, opening what could be months of tense union negotiations

• Works council and IG Metall vowed to oppose the plans "with all our might"

• Some 28,000 workers have already agreed to leave as part of an existing plan to cut 50,000 roles by 2030

Source: Bloomberg

Samsung and SK Hynix poised for record AI spending push

[8:30 am] South Korea's two largest chipmakers are preparing to unveil hundreds of billions of dollars in new investment at a presidential briefing on Monday.

• Samsung Group is set to announce a 1,000 trillion won (US$646 billion) spending package over the next decade, the largest in the country's history, according to Maeil Business Newspaper

• President Lee Jae Myung will host a national briefing on Monday focused on semiconductors, AI data centres and physical AI

• Policy chief Kim Yong-beom said "very unusual" investment figures would be announced on 29 June

• SK Hynix plans a US$29 billion US listing after Chairman Chey Tae-won flagged plans to double capacity over five years

• Both stocks fell more than 9% on Friday amid a broad semiconductor selloff tied to Apple price hikes and the OpenAI IPO delay report

Source: Bloomberg

Rising leverage emerges as a growing risk to the US stock rally

[8:24 am] Surging market leverage and an unexpected mid-year spike in equity financing costs are fuelling concern that borrowing could amplify the next selloff.

• Equity financing costs have reached their highest since December 2024, driven by leveraged ETFs, retail margin accounts and hedge fund prime brokerage balances

• CME's S&P 500 adjusted interest rate total return futures have climbed to levels last seen in late 2024

• Kyte's Andy Kent said margin debt is elevated and shadow banking borrowing continues to expand, raising the risk that modest moves become self-reinforcing

• IPO and ADR programmes, including large listings, are tying up bank capital and adding to the funding squeeze

• Investors are increasingly using cross-asset hybrid hedges, with Bank of America citing demand for both equity down rates up and equity down rates down trades

Source: Bloomberg

SpaceX set to join Nasdaq 100, opening door to passive inflows

[8:21 am] SpaceX will enter the Nasdaq 100 on 7 July, with JPMorgan estimating the move could draw $4.3 billion in passive buying.

• Nasdaq confirmed SpaceX's inclusion effective 7 July, less than a month after its 12 June debut

• JPMorgan estimated index inclusion could attract US$4.3 billion in passive inflows from ETFs tracking the benchmark

• Nasdaq, alongside FTSE Russell and MSCI, has relaxed entry rules on profitability, post-IPO timing and free float to attract US listings

• SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.9 billion last year and has swung between losses and small profits over three years

• Morningstar's Michael Field said the fast-tracked inclusion reflects strong demand but called the stock overvalued

• S&P Global said this month it would not change its index criteria for SpaceX and will wait at least 12 months before considering S&P 500 entry

Source: Reuters

Nasdaq extends losing streak to five sessions as chip stocks tumble

[8:16 am] The Nasdaq fell for a fifth straight session on Friday as investors rotated out of technology and into defensive sectors after a report that OpenAI may delay its IPO.

• Nasdaq Composite fell 0.24% on Friday down 4.6% on the week

• S&P 500 was also down for the week (-1.9%), slipping 0.05% Friday

• Dow eased 0.09% to 51,876.11 but rose 0.6% on the week

• Chip stocks weakened after a New York Times report that OpenAI is weighing a 2027 listing, citing SpaceX's weak post-IPO performance and AI share volatility

• Micron fell more than 6%, Intel shed more than 3% and AMD lost 2%

• JPMorgan traders flagged concerns over the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending given the funding delay

• Healthcare led gains with Eli Lilly up 7%, AbbVie up more than 4% and Johnson & Johnson up almost 4%

Source: CNBC

Good morning!

[8:11 am] ASX 200 futures are up 16pts (+0.18%)

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Wall Street ended a bruising week near flat, the S&P 500 (-0.05%) and Nasdaq (-0.24%) slightly lower, dragged by an AI and chip selloff and a reported OpenAI IPO delay

• US and Iran traded strikes over the weekend, the US hitting Iranian sites twice and Iran attacking Bahrain and Kuwait, reviving war risk as oil sat at multi-month lows

• Sydney posted its weakest weekend home auction clearance rate since 2020 and Volkswagen plans to cut ~100,000 jobs globally or ~15% of its workforce