ASX 200 Live Today - Monday, 17th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Monday, August 17. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

oOh!media flags stronger second half as Q3 paces up double digits

[9:28 am] Soft billboard demand and the loss of Auckland Transport weighed on the first half, but Australian momentum is accelerating into a period dominated by the I Squared takeover.

• Group revenue of $340.9m, adjusted underlying EBITDA of $48.1m and adjusted underlying gross margin of 37.5%

  • Billboards revenue down 2% to $117.5m as brand-led demand weakened through Q2

  • Street & Rail up 3% to $111.6m, with Australia up 18% offset by a 57% New Zealand decline after the Auckland Transport exit

  • Retail up 1% to $59.2m, the first growth in six halves, with Airports up 5% to $33.6m

• Operational Excellence program and REO exit delivering $12m in annualised savings, with a further $1-2m run rate identified

• Fully franked 2 cps interim dividend declared as part of the I Squared scheme, net debt of $129.3m and gearing of 1.0x

• Q3 pacing up 14% in Australia, with more than 100% of last year's Q3 closing revenue already booked

• I Squared scheme announced 10 August at $1.70 per share, including the 2.00c fully franked dividend

• On the category: "Out of Home continues to be the fastest growing media format, reaching a record 16.9% of total agency media spend"

Company page: oOh!media (OML)

JB Hi-Fi hits record FY26 sales, lifts dividend 22.5% as brands hold up

[9:26 am] Resilient demand across the group drove record turnover and a sharply higher payout, though July trading pointed to softer momentum in the core Australian business.

• Total sales up 4.8% to $11.06bn vs $11.12bn ests (in line)

• EBIT up 3.8% to $734.4m vs $734.9m ests (in line)

• NPAT up 2.9% to $489.9m vs $492m ests (in line)

• EPS up 2.9% to 448.1 cents vs 448.4 cents ests (in line)

• Final dividend of 127.0 cps fully franked, up 21.0%, taking full-year ordinary dividend to 337.0 cps, up 22.5%, at 75% of NPAT

• July trading softened, with JB Hi-Fi Australia total sales down 0.5% and The Good Guys down 1.7%, on supplier price rises and tech stock shortages

Company page: JB Hi-Fi (JBH)

Audinate delivers 15% US dollar revenue growth as Dante spans audio, video and control

[9:20 am] Platform investment in Iris and Dante Director pushed the group to an underlying EBITDA loss, though the loss came in narrower than ests as a completed restructure sets up FY27.

The below ests refer to Morgan Stanley forecasts from May 2026, most of which were in A$. We have converted this to USD at today's exchange rate of 71 cents.

• Revenue up 14.9% to US$46.0m, or $64.8m at 0.71 vs $66.7m ests (3% miss), at the upper end of market guidance

• Gross profit up 14.7% to US$37.7m, or $53.1m at 0.71 vs $54.9m ests (3% miss), with gross margin of 82.0% versus 82.1% in FY25

• Underlying EBITDA a loss of $3.6m vs a $5.7m ests loss, a narrower loss than expected, against a $0.7m profit in FY25

• Dante ecosystem now over 8 million devices shipped across 542 OEM partners, with 137 design wins secured

• FY27 outlook for US dollar gross profit growth in line with or slightly ahead of FY26, margins around 82% and A$ operating costs held flat, supporting improved operating profit

  • Implies ~US$43.2m in FY27 gross profit or ~A$60.9m vs. A$62.7m ests (~3% miss)

• On the AI question: "since Dante moves audio and video signals onto IP networks, Dante APIs and platform services create a natural foundation for AI and workflow automation"

Company page: Audinate Group (AD8)

Aurizon's FY26 dividend jumps 46% on record Bulk result

[9:14 am] Higher regulated revenue and a record Bulk performance drove earnings and cash generation higher, funding a sharply increased payout alongside a completed buy-back.

• Revenue up 6% to $4.19bn vs $4.16bn ests (in line)

• EBITDA up 9% to $1.72bn vs $1.72bn ests (in line)

• Underlying NPAT up 24% to $433m vs $429m ests (1% beat)

• Statutory NPAT up 19% to $362m

• Full-year DPS of 23.0 cps, up 46%, vs 22.5 cps ests (2% beat), final 10.5cps 90% franked

• FY27 EBITDA guided to $1,725-1,775m vs $1,797m ests (3% miss at midpoint), with Coal lower on reduced volumes and yield

Company page: Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)

Aurizon recontracts major BMA coal haulage deal in Queensland

[9:14 am] The rail operator has renewed its long-standing partnership with BHP Mitsubishi Alliance for metallurgical coal haulage in the Bowen Basin, replacing its 2015 contract.

• New performance-based contract for up to 37 million tonnes per annum, effective 1 July 2028

• Term of up to 12 years subject to performance and extension arrangements, potentially running to 2040

• Covers BMA's Goonyella Riverside, Broadmeadow, Peak Downs, Saraji and Caval Ridge met coal mines

• BMA represents close to a quarter of the coal tonnes Aurizon carries in Queensland

• Takes total coal haulage recontracted since July 2025 to more than 60 million tonnes annually, covering all customer contracts tendered over the period

Company page: Aurizon Holdings (AZJ)

IMDEX posts record FY26 as margins expand and market share gains continue

[9:11 am] Revenue growth outpaced a soft exploration market on further share gains, with earnings leverage lifting normalised margins.

• Revenue up 21% to $520m vs $519m ests (in line)

• Normalised EBITDA up 29% to $163m vs $159.8m ests (2% beat), margin expanding to 31%

• Reported EBITDA up 38% to $179m and reported NPAT up 44% to $79m

• Normalised NPAT up 37% to $59m vs $58.3m ests (1% beat)

• Full-year dividend of 3.44 cps, fully franked, with 1.75 cps final at a 30% payout ratio, in line with ests

• Share of wallet a record $2.40 per $100 of exploration spend, up from $2.20 in FY25

• On the outlook: "IMDEX enters FY27 with more growth levers available than at any time in its history"

Company page: IMDEX (IMD)

GWA lifts profit and dividend on volume growth across all markets

[9:11 am] Operational discipline drove earnings and margin higher despite mixed conditions, delivering a third straight year of group volume growth.

• Revenue up 0.9% to $422.3m

• Normalised EBIT up 2.5% to $78.2m, with margin up 0.3ppts to 18.5%

• Normalised NPAT up 4.9% to $48.8m

• Statutory NPAT up 10.6% to $48.0m

• Fully franked final dividend of 8.5cps, taking the full-year payout to 16.5cps, up 6.5%

• FY27 cash conversion expected above the 80-85% target range on a proactive inventory pull-forward

Company page: GWA Group (GWA)

BlueScope FY26 earnings surge

[9:05 am] Stronger US steel spreads and a record Southeast Asia result drove a materially higher full-year outcome, with first-half FY2027 guidance landing comfortably ahead of consensus.

• Underlying EBIT of $1.27bn vs. $1.264bn UBS ests (0.5% beat), on stronger US spreads and record Southeast Asia performance

• Reported NPAT up 857% to $802m

• Underlying NPAT of $851.2m vs. $849m UBS ests (0.25% beat)

• Final ordinary dividend of 65 cps plus 70 cps special (both unfranked), unclear if comparable to UBS ests of 165 cps

• 1H27 underlying EBIT guided to $860-960m vs $923m ests (1.4% miss at the midpoint)

Company page: BlueScope Steel (BSL)

Macmahon sells down Homeground village in $20bn Gladstone infrastructure play

[9:00 am] Macmahon has agreed to a partial sale of its Gladstone workforce accommodation asset alongside a co-operation deal tied to a major Central Queensland development program.

• Selling up to 50% of the Homeground village to Allcap Securities based on the asset's $52m book value, starting with a 20% interest and an option for a further 30% by December 2029

• Retains 80% initially and ongoing exposure to Homeground's performance, having long viewed it as non-core

• Allcap to direct accommodation demand within 70km of Gladstone to Homeground, which has 1,392 existing rooms

• Deal anchored to Project Velocity, an approximately $20bn integrated freight and logistics program including a new container terminal, inland port, about 580km of rail and BESS energy infrastructure

• On the rationale: "an opportunity to progressively realise value from Homeground, which we have consistently regarded as a non-core asset, while retaining meaningful exposure to its future performance"

Company page: Macmahon Holdings (MAH)

GPT lifts management earnings as portfolio NPI growth stays strong

[8:59 am] Like-for-like income growth across all three sectors and a rising funds-management contribution drove the first half, with full-year guidance reaffirmed.

• FFO of $338.8m or 17.7cps,

• 1H26 distribution of 12.25cps vs 12.3c ests (in line)

• Investment portfolio like-for-like NPI growth of 5.8%, with office up 8.0%, retail up 4.6% and logistics up 4.0%

• Investment portfolio occupancy of 97.6%, or 98.2% excluding recently acquired Grosvenor Place

• Assets under management up 4.6% since December to $41.6bn, with gross transactions of about $1.7bn

• Net tangible assets of $5.61 per security, net gearing of 31.5% and liquidity of $1.0bn

• FY26 guidance reaffirmed at FFO of about 35.4cps (about 4% growth, 5.7% ex-trading profits) and distribution of 24.5cps, in line with ests

• On strategy: "the growing contribution from management earnings reflects our success in attracting investors to deploy alongside us"

Company page: The GPT Group (GPT)

a2 Milk FY27 guidance points below consensus on softer margins

[8:57 am] The infant formula recovery is a first-half drag, leaving group earnings materially skewed to the second half and the margin guide short of where the market sits.

• FY27 revenue guided to mid single digit growth, implying roughly $2,035-2,075m vs $2,133m ests (around 3-5% below)

• EBITDA margin guided to approximately 15%, implying EBITDA of roughly $305-311m vs $341m ests (around 9-11% below)

• 1H27 revenue expected broadly in line with 1H26 and 1H27 EBITDA margin materially down on 1H26, with revenue and earnings weighted to 2H27

• IMF sales expected broadly similar to FY26 as China label gradually recovers and English label offtake improves through 1H27 on higher marketing spend

NZX-listed A2 shares are down 9.9% this morning to NZ$7.41.

Company page: The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

a2 Milk delivers double-digit revenue growth despite 4Q China supply hit

[8:56 am] Every market and category grew in FY26, though a fourth-quarter supply chain disruption dented China label infant formula and weighed on second-half earnings.

• Group revenue up 12.4% to $1,974.9m vs $1,974m ests (in line), with USA up 28.6%, China & Other Asia up 11.2% and ANZ up 10.2%

• EBITDA of $284.4m vs $285m ests (in line), with underlying EBITDA up 5.4%

• NPAT of $207.5m vs $204m ests (2% beat), underlying NPAT up 7.0%

• Underlying EPS up 6.8% to 32.5 cents

• Total FY26 dividend lifted to 21.0 cents from 20.0 cents, unimputed and fully franked, plus a $300m special dividend, at a ~74% payout ratio

• Infant formula grew 5% in a flat China market, Other Nutritionals up 42% and Liquid Milk up 22% on ANZ and USA share gains

• FY27 outlook for mid single digit revenue growth and around 15% EBITDA margin

• On the China setback: "the key contributing factors have been resolved, and we are focused on executing our recovery plan"

Company page: The a2 Milk Company (A2M)

US readies 'economic isolation' plan for Iran as Hormuz attacks mount

[8:53 am] Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has flagged unprecedented economic measures against Tehran, keeping oil-market risk elevated as ship attacks continue and peace talks stall.

• Bessent promised measures never seen "in the history of economic isolation," as part of a "one-two punch" alongside the continued naval blockade of Iran's ports

• Covert oil shuttling through Hormuz is running above 4 million barrels a day, with pipeline workarounds and stockpile releases helping cap prices despite the war

• Meaningful new measures likely require secondary sanctions on buyers of Iranian oil such as China, which buys more than 90% of Iran's exports and would risk Beijing retaliation and fresh energy-price uncertainty

• Options canvassed include hitting Chinese banks financing the trade, sanctioning UAE exchange houses, secondary sanctions on trading partners, seizing overseas assets and targeting the shadow fleet

S&P 500 earnings blow past expectations in 'outlier' season

[8:53 am] Second-quarter profit growth is running well ahead of forecasts, lifting strategist targets for a market already at record highs.

• S&P 500 earnings up 31% in Q2 year-on-year, the best growth outside recession recoveries since 1992 and ahead of the 23% projected

• Net income margins approaching 16%, up from a prior ceiling around 14%, driven by tech and AI productivity gains

• Full-year profit growth estimates lifted to 27%, from 15% at the start of 2026

• Average year-end target raised to 7,894 points, roughly 1% above current levels

• Index trading just below 22 times forward earnings, down from around 26 times at the start of the year

• Around three-quarters of 1,500 reporters beat on both EPS and sales, with mid- and small-cap beat rates near record highs

Source: Bloomberg

Copper squeeze deepens as LME spread hits highest since 2021

[8:50 am] Spot copper is trading well above later-dated futures as LME stockpiles keep draining.

• August contract hit a premium as high as $370 over September futures, the widest one-month spread since the 2021 squeeze

• Cash-to-three-month spread reached $434 a ton, also the highest since 2021

• LME stockpiles fell for a 42nd day to 204,975 tons, with nearly half already earmarked for withdrawal

• LME introduced emergency measures to contain the spot rally

• Three-month contract traded above $14,100 a ton, up nearly 14% for the year, with cash near a record $14,500

• Squeeze fuelled by shipments to the US ahead of potential refined copper tariffs and tight Chinese feedstock

Hedge funds more than halve yen short since joint intervention

[8:49 am] Leveraged funds keep unwinding bearish yen bets after the US-Japan action, though the currency has clawed back most of its gains.

• Leveraged fund yen shorts down 6.5% to 59,526 contracts in the week to 11 August

• Funds have more than halved their yen short position since the coordinated intervention

• Yen weakened about 1% this week to 159.35, erasing much of the official-action gains

• Bullish pound bets built to the most since February, NZD shorts to the most since 2006

Source: Bloomberg

'FOMO insurance' drives options buying as record rally rolls on

[8:48 am] With the S&P 500 at fresh highs, investors are chasing upside calls rather than hedging the downside.

• Demand for upside calls has outstripped demand for flat-market options for at least 170 S&P 500 stocks, the most since 2016, per Citadel Securities

• Institutions buying bullish calls as "FOMO insurance" to capture upside without committing full capital

• S&P 500 up around 23% since late March, closing at another record on Thursday

• VIX at its lowest since January, signalling a cheap time to hedge

Source: Bloomberg

Berkshire lifts Delta and Alphabet stakes as Abel draws on cash pile

[8:48 am] Greg Abel's second full quarter as CEO saw back-to-back deals and fresh equity buying, trimming Berkshire's record cash hoard.

• Added 17.5 million Delta shares, lifting the stake to $5.37bn at end-June

• Added 48.1 million Alphabet shares, making it the third-biggest holding at $37.8bn

• Cash fell to $365.5bn at midyear from a record $397bn at end-March

• Spent $6.8bn on homebuilder Taylor Morrison and handed $10bn to Alphabet to support AI investments

• Repurchased about $4.5bn of own stock and added a net $20bn of other equities

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:36 am] ASX 200 futures are down 33 pts (-0.36%). Here's what happened overnight:

• US benchmarks mostly eased from Thursday's record close after soft retail sales and consumer sentiment data, though the S&P 500 still notched a third consecutive weekly advance, its longest run since May

  • S&P 500 (-0.17%), Nasdaq (-0.28%), Dow (-0.20%) and Russell 2000 (+0.51%)

  • Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.02%) eked out a forth straight all-time high

• Oil pushed higher into the weekend after Washington threatened unprecedented economic measures against Iran and signalled the naval blockade of Iranian ports could run indefinitely

• Broadcom led a wobble in AI credit after Bank of America flagged the scale of debt sitting behind the off-balance-sheet chip financing vehicle it built with Apollo and Blackstone