Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to rise, chip rally lifts S&P 500 and Nasdaq, copper back near all-time highs

In a nutshell:

• Chip stocks carried the US market higher, ahead of Nvidia's result tomorrow

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.4% but still down 8.1% in the last six sessions

• Brent dipped 4.8% to US$85.95 a barrel, driving a meaningful pullback for bond yields

• Canada matched Washington dollar for dollar, announcing retaliatory tariffs on C$27.6bn of US goods from 8 September as the trade fight escalated

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks finished higher after a relatively choppy, narrow and rangebound session

• Semis drove the bulk of the upside, with names like AMD (+4.9%), Micron (+2.4%), SpaceX (+2.1%) and Nvidia (+2.1%) bouncing after Tuesday’s selloff

• Breadth was soft, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (-0.07%) trailing the cap-weighted index by 39 bps 

• Treasury yields fell for a second session, with the 10-year down 7 bps to a two-week low of 4.62% and 30-year down 7 bps to 5.15%, the lowest since 29-Jul after reports the Treasury could tap its US$1tn General Account to fund repurchases 

• Bitcoin pushed above US$80,000 for the first time in three months, as the Treasury's bond market intervention revived dollar debasement concerns and sent investors toward alternative assets (YF) 

• Zoom Communications Q2 FY27 revenue up 4.9% to $1.28bn, enterprise revenue up 7.8% to $787.5m and the fastest in three years, adjusted EPS $1.55 beating ests by about 5%, with FY27 EPS guidance lifted to $6.08 to $6.12 (INVS)

• Nvidia rose about 2% to snap a seven-day losing streak ahead of Wednesday's Q2 FY27 result, with ests calling for revenue near $92.2bn, up roughly 97% year-on-year, and EPS of $2.09 (BBG)

• Apple unveiled the M6, its first chip built on a 2nm process, with a 12-core CPU and close to 30% more peak GPU AI compute than the M5, alongside the quad-die M5 Ultra in refreshed Mac mini and Mac Studio models (BBG)

• SpaceX announced a US$100bn Starbase Louisiana complex in Vermilion Parish designed to support thousands of launches annually (CNBC)

• Trump said all mines have been cleared from the Strait of Hormuz, speaking mid-session as the administration pivoted toward economic rather than military pressure on Tehran (ABC)

• Iran granted permission for Iraqi oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz following repeated appeals from Baghdad, according to state news agency IRNA (CNN)

• Iranian security chief Rezaei vowed to neutralise the economic war with Washington and threatened to halt oil flows through the Strait unless the US honours its commitments (CNN)

• The State Department is preparing to return personnel to the Middle East, officials said, as the conflict settles into a no war, no deal holding pattern (ABC)

• Trump threatened to rename Lake Ontario "Lake America" earlier on Tuesday, as relations between the two longtime allies hit a new low (CNN)

• Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on C$27.6bn of US goods, matching Washington dollar for dollar, with duties of 15%, 25% and 50% across about 700 products from 8 September (CNBC)

• Ottawa will double duties on US steel and aluminium to 50% from 8 September, with 25% tariffs on cheese, appliances and some seafood and 15% on electronics and tools (CNN)

• Canada unveiled a C$7.5bn support package covering small and medium businesses, a cash flow funding stream for companies and assistance for workers at risk from the escalating trade war (YF)

• Trump's 50% tariffs on US$20bn of Canadian imports took effect on Saturday after negotiations collapsed, covering motor vehicles, alcohol, wine, cement, hockey sticks and dairy (WP)

• Bessent expanded secondary sanctions categories to digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, telling nations to cut economic ties with Tehran or face retaliation and declining to exempt China (AX)

• China publicly defended its ties with Iran in the face of the US economic pressure campaign, with Beijing among Tehran's largest trading partners alongside Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (ABC)

• European auto stocks led regional declines at the open after Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on Canadian vehicles and parts from next year (CNBC)

• ECB policymakers are ready to hike rates at the September meeting to contain the side effects of the Iran war, three sources told Reuters, with little appetite to signal further tightening beyond that (RT)

• Former BOJ board member Seiji Adachi said the bank will likely raise rates next month and again as early as January, warning that holding could reignite a yen selloff and accelerate import-driven inflation (JT)

• US consumer confidence fell to 89.4 in August, the lowest reading since January, down from a downwardly revised 90.2 in July and below the 90.2 consensus (BBG) 

• US new home sales fell 10.5% month-on-month in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000, below the 620,000 consensus and the lowest since January (BBG) 

A chokkas day for results, with plenty more to come. Head to the Live Blog for a full breakdown of today's reporters

• Airtasker signs three-year media partnerships with oOh!media and NOVA Entertainment, each providing $5.5m in media capital ($11m total) to build Australian brand awareness. FY26 Australian revenue up 11.3% to $46.3m, marketplace GMV a record $211.6m, up 10.9%, with monetisation up 10bps to 21.9% (ART)

• Chalice Mining releases an independent review of its Gonneville PGM-nickel-copper approvals strategy by former WA EPA chair Dr Tom Hatton, which found key environmental risks appropriately identified with mitigation in place or planned. Supports the targeted FID in H1 CY28 (CHN)

• Count delivers FY26 revenue up 15.6% to $165.9m, underlying EBITA up 20.5% to $33.4m on margins widening to 20.1%, and underlying NPAT up 27.2% to $13.9m. FUM up 66.1% to $6.5bn and FUA up 13.7% to $43.0bn after the Oracle deal and Count Portfolios internalisation. Final dividend of 3.0 cps, up 9.1% and the highest in nine years (CUP)

• Deep Yellow executes a long-term water supply agreement with NamWater and finalises local ownership arrangements with Namibian partner Oponona at the Tumas uranium project, with Oponona's share of past and future spend loan-carried and repaid from future dividends. Still targeting FID in Q4 2026, subject to market conditions (DYL)

• Flight Centre posts record FY26 TTV of $25.7bn, up 4.7%, and underlying EBITDA up 3.9% to $466m, but UPBT fell 4% to $278m after a ~$60m Q4 leisure profit hit from escalating Middle East hostilities. Statutory NPAT up 38% to $149m and EPS up 43% to 71c on buybacks, with FY26 dividends up 5% to 42c. Record leisure TTV in July, though FY27 corporate profit will be 2H-weighted with guidance held over to the November AGM (FLT)

• Perseus Mining reports record FY26 NPAT up 14% to $480.5m on revenue up 19% to $1.484bn and EBITDA up 16% to $860.5m, closing with $1.03bn cash and bullion plus US$400m undrawn. Final dividend of 9.0 cps takes the full year to a record 14 cps, up 87%, alongside a renewed $350m buyback, a new 20% minimum payout policy and a planned $100m distribution from Meyas Sand sale proceeds (PRU)

• PolyNovo lifts FY26 commercial sales 16.7% to $138.4m (21.3% cc) and total revenue 16.1% to $150.0m, with EBITDA up 8.1% to $12.1m but NPAT down 44.4% to $7.3m. Free cash flow of $9.4m, with the new manufacturing facility complete and validation running ahead of the planned FY27 transition (PNV)

• Vysarn grows FY26 revenue 31% to $140.06m, EBITDA 36% to $28.91m and NPAT 41% to $15.11m on a full 12-month contribution from all subsidiaries, though operating cashflow fell 13% to $14.92m (VYS)

• Uranium: Some big moves for the NYSE-listed Global X Uranium ETF in recent days, up 5.3% overnight and now up 9.8% in the last three sessions. Local names have traded sharply higher, with a bellwether name like Paladin Energy up 10.5% on Monday and 2.2% on Tuesday. The catalyst, beyond broader commodity price strength, remains unclear.

• Look at miners go: Copper added 1.5% overnight to US$6.80/lb, just shy of another record close. Gold rose 0.15% to US$4,657/oz, now up 17% since 16-Jul. NYSE-listed Newmont shares gained 2.5%, closing at fresh all-time highs. Newmont tumbled around 34% between Feb and mid-Jul, and recovered the entire drawdown in less than one month. The Global X Copper Miners ETF also rose 1.89%, closing at fresh all-time highs. It's now up 30.9% year-to-date and up 99% in the last twelve months.

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 26 Aug: Accent Group (AX1) – $0.013, Bell Financial Group (BFG) – $0.05, BSP Financial Group (BFL) – $0.139, GQG Partners (GQG) – $0.036, Maxiparts (MXI) – $0.055, Ooh!Media (OML) – $0.02, Regal Partners Global Investments (RG1) – $0.05, Telstra Group (TLS) – $0.105, The Lottery Corporation (TLC) – $0.085

• Thu 27 Aug: Australian United Investment Company (AUI) – $0.28, Cuscal (CCL) – $0.07, Ebos Group (EBO) – $0.448, Heartland Group (HGH) – $0.029, Ignite (IGN) – $0.03, IPH (IPH) – $0.195, JB Hi-Fi (JBH) – $1.27, MLG OZ (MLG) – $0.013, REA Group (REA) – $1.73, SRG Global (SRG) – $0.04, TPG Telecom (TPG) – $0.10, Ventia Services (VNT) – $0.118

• Fri 28 Aug: 360 Capital Mortgage REIT (TCF) – $0.05, Argo Global Listed Infrastructure (ALI) – $0.055, Beach Energy (BPT) – $0.02, Fiducian Group (FID) – $0.282, Iress (IRE) – $0.14, KKR Credit Income Fund (KKC) – $0.017, Orora (ORA) – $0.04, Quickfee (QFE) – $0.005, Regal Partners (RPL) – $0.12, Shape Australia (SHA) – $0.18

• Mon 31 Aug: Ansell (ANN) – $0.581, Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) – $0.105, Australian Finance Group (AFG) – $0.048, Carlton Investments (CIN) – $0.73, GR Engineering Services (GNG) – $0.13, Iluka Resources (ILU) – $0.03, Mitchell Services (MSV) – $0.02, Pengana International Equities (PIA) – $0.014, Pinnacle Investment Management (PNI) – $0.31, Wagners (WGN) – $0.05

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: Metcash (MTS), Goodman Group (GMG)

• Earnings: DroneShield (DRO), Domino's Pizza (DMP), Duratec (DUR), Flight Centre Travel Group (FLT), Helloworld Travel (HLO), HMC Capital (HMC), IVE Group (IGL), Koala Company (KOA), Lovisa (LOV), Lynas Rare Earths (LYC), Motorcycle Holdings (MTO), Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU), Netwealth Group (NWL), Nickel Industries (NIC), Nido Education (NDO), Nine Entertainment (NEC), Paladin Energy (PDN), Paragon Care (PGC), Pengana Capital Group (PCG), Perseus Mining (PRU), Prime Financial Group (PFG), RAM Essential Services Property Fund (REP), Resimac Group (RMC), Retail Food Group (RFG), Sandfire Resources (SFR), Starpharma (SPL), Tabcorp (TAH), Teaminvest Private Group (TIP), Toubani Resources (TRE), WiseTech Global (WTC), Woolworths Group (WOW), Worley (WOR) 

• IPOs: None

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 11:30 am: Australia Inflation

• 10:30 pm: US Core PCE Price Index

• 10:30 pm: US Durable Goods Orders

• 10:30 pm: US Q2 GDP Growth