Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to fall as S&P 500 slips again, CBA FY26 cash profit up 6% to $10.9bn

In a nutshell:

• Wall Street faded a positive open to finish mostly lower for a second session, with the US-Iran standoff and tonight's CPI print keeping buyers sidelined

• Brent gained 1.6% to US$89.3 a barrel, as Trump added compensation demands to Hormuz talks, though Pakistani negotiations believe "some sort of an arrangement" is nearing

• Intel raised $20bn in an upsized capital raising, while asset managers like Blackstone, Apollo and KKR rallied on Nvidia's AI financing coalition

Let's dive in.

• Major US benchmarks lower, opened firmer before fading steadily to close near session lows

• Breadth was surprisingly positive despite only three sectors trading higher, Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.21%) outperformed the cap-weighted index by 53 bps and closed at all-time highs

• Big tech mostly lower, with SpaceX (-3.9%), Alphabet (-3.6%), Amazon (-2.0%) and Broadcom (-1.5%) the worst performers as AI capex scrutiny persists

• Gold briefly hit a two-month high above US$4,400/oz on easing hike expectations and Chinese central bank buying of ~20 tonnes in July (BBG) 

• Asset managers rallied on Nvidia's AI financing coalition, with Blackstone up ~4%, Apollo and KKR both up ~6% (CNBC) 

• Fresh capital raisings from Intel and Nvidia renewed investor scrutiny of how the capital-intensive AI build-out is being funded (YF) 

• Investors show signs of complacency as VIX drops despite ongoing Middle East tensions (FT)

• CTAs triple underweight bond positions, create record $300m exposure per bp move in 10-year yield into US CPI report (BBG)

• Citadel argues the worst of technical unwind is now behind market; sees investors rebuilding leverage (BBG)

• Intel raised $20bn in an upsized share sale priced at $95 a share, a third above the $15bn flagged on Monday, after the offering drew more than $100bn of demand (BBG)

• A federation of nearly 300 French newspapers filed a competition complaint against Google's AI Overviews, alleging the feature has cut referral traffic to member sites by 33% to 38% (YF)

• CoreWeave Q2 FY26 revenue up 112% to $2.6bn, ~1% ahead of ests, net loss widened to $626m, revenue backlog $104bn excluding $25bn of new third-quarter commitments, shares up ~12% after hours (CNBC)

• Super Micro Q4 FY26 revenue up 93% to $11.1bn, ~4% below ests, EPS $1.62 vs. $0.96 expected, FY27 revenue guided to $65-72bn against $52.5bn ests, shares up about ~5% after hours (TS)

• Morgan Stanley launches $1.5tn initiative to finance US tech, infrastructure and strategic industries over coming decade (BBG)

• GM exits $3.5bn Indiana EV battery JV, selling stake to Samsung SDI as tepid EV demand forces strategic retreat (BBG)

• Pakistan's defence minister said the US and Iran are close to "some sort of an arrangement" over the Strait of Hormuz, adding signals had improved over the past two to three days (BBG)

• Qatar said Iran-Oman talks on managing Hormuz had reached the technical stage, with shipping route coordinates agreed and Tehran preparing an official announcement (RT)

• Trump said he would seek compensation from Iran for deaths and damage over a 50-year period, later widening the demand to cover Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza (AJ)

• Saudi Aramco delays Jazan refinery restart to 30-Aug following fresh Houthi attack that further damaged facility (BBG)

• Drone attack in western Libya destroys storage tank at oil refinery, risking facilities and worsening fuel shortages (BBG)

• Hormuz shipping traffic falls to six on Monday vs ~11 average as US-Iran deal hopes fade (RT)

• US tariff refunds flow back to Chinese exporters, directly boosting A-share corporate profits (SCMP)

• China asks to join Brazil's WTO challenge against US forced-labour tariffs, citing broad impact on Chinese exports to American markets (SCMP)

• CME FedWatch showed a near coin flip between a September hike and a hold, with traders pointing to Wednesday's CPI as the decisive input under Chair Kevin Warsh's thinner guidance regime (CNN)

• Cleveland Fed's Hammack calls for multiple rate hikes needed to curb broadening inflation, arguing current settings are not meaningfully restrictive (BBG)

• RBA left rates unchanged as expected, tone more hawkish (BBG)

• Singapore raises 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5-5.5% from 2.0-4.0%, citing AI investment boom and reduced Middle East drag (RT)

• Australian business confidence weakens amid Middle East uncertainty, elevated cost pressures weigh on margins (BBG)

• US existing home sales fell 1.7% month-on-month in July to a 4.06m annual pace, a three-month low as elevated prices and mortgage rates weighed on the housing market (BBG) 

• Commonwealth Bank reports FY26 cash NPAT US$10.98bn vs US$10.86bn ests, a 1.1% beat, with cash earnings up 7% and ROE at 14.0%. NIM 2.05% in line. CET1 12.0%. Final DPS $2.70, fully franked, taking full-year payout to $5.05 (CBA)

• Computershare delivers management EPS up 7% to US145.2c, ahead of upgraded guidance, with ROIC climbing 70bps to 36.5% and EBIT ex MI margins above 18%. Lifts final dividend 35.4% to 65c. Guides FY27 management EPS growth of ~6% (CPU)

• FleetPartners Group receives raised takeover offer from Pacific Equity Partners at $4.00/share, a 3.4% premium to the last close, with PEP not seeking exclusivity unlike rival suitor Element Fleet Management (AFR)

• Macmahon Holdings awarded a $240m underground mining contract at Medallion Metals' Ravensthorpe Gold Project, an initial 36-month term with works to commence in the December quarter 2026 (MAH)

• Suncorp Group reports FY cash earnings $1.04bn vs $1.03bn ests, a 1.0% beat, with NPAT $1.03bn and GWP $15.41bn just shy of $15.47bn ests. Final dividend 52c plus 10c special, fully franked. Launches $250m buyback. Guides FY27 GWP growth of 3-5% (SUN)

• Coronado Global downgraded to Neutral from Outperform; target cut to $0.20 from $0.40 (Macquarie)

• Guzman Y Gomez downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; however target up to $24 from $23 (JPMorgan)

• L1 Group initiated Outperform with $1.25 target (Macquarie)

• Lovisa downgraded to Neutral from Buy; however target up to $28 from $26 (UBS)

• SGH downgraded to Hold from Buy; target cut to $45 from $51 (Bell Potter)

• South32 downgraded to Neutral from Overweight; target unchanged at $4.50 (JPMorgan)

Stocks trading ex-dividend: 

• Wed 12 Aug: Flagship Investments (FSI) – $0.053, Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

• Thu 13 Aug: Bank of Queensland (BOQ) – $0.15, Reckon (RKN) – $0.025, Rio Tinto (RIO) – $3.029, Scentre Group (SCG) – $0.092

• Fri 14 Aug: Argo Investments (ARG) – $0.20, BKI Investment Company (BKI) – $0.04, Plato Income Maximiser (PL8) – $0.006, Spheria Emerging Companies (SEC) – $0.011

Other ASX corporate actions today:       

• Dividends paid: ClearView Wealth (CVW)

• Earnings: AGL Energy (AGL), Arena REIT (ARF), Bravura Solutions (BVS), Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Dexus Industria REIT (DXI), Kelly Partners Group Holdings (KPG), Suncorp Group (SUN)

• IPOs: None 

• AGMs: None

Economic calendar (AEST):

• 10:30 pm: US CPI (Ests: 3.4% vs. 3.5% prior)

• 10:30 pm: US Core CPI (Ests: 2.5% vs. 2.6% prior)