Insider Trades: 3 ASX 200 directors piled into this stock (plus a big CEO selldown)

Welcome back to the Insider Trades Series – a weekly summary of on-market ASX 200 director transactions valued at more than $10,000. The trades have all taken place between 1-8 May 2025. Directors have up to 5 business days to notify the ASX of their trades.

The volume of transaction activity has jumped substantially last week, likely reflecting buoyant market conditions (S&P/ASX 200 now trading ~4% above pre-Liberation Day levels) and trade de-escalation momentum.

Top ASX 200 Insider Buys

Key takeaways

IGO saw significant insider activity last week, with four transactions from CEO Ivan Vella, Non-Executive Chairman Michael Nossal, and Non-Executive Director Samantha Hogg. Remarkably, IGO’s share price has surged nearly 40% since April 9, despite lithium prices plummeting to 68,000 yuan per tonne — the lowest in over four years.

The company’s March quarter update received mixed analyst reactions. Greenbushes, IGO’s primary cash generator, delivered strong realised pricing and solid margins, bolstered by a surprise dividend from the joint venture, though production and sales fell short of expectations. The Kwinana project drew intense scrutiny, with Train 1 under full review and no further capital commitments until performance benchmarks are met. Analysts diverged on whether mothballing or exiting Kwinana could lift sentiment, but most praised IGO’s capital discipline. Meanwhile, CGP3 remains on track and within budget, though some analysts cautioned about potential pricing pressure if stockpiles are drawn down aggressively.

Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating with a $4.55 target price post-quarterly, noting, “Cash costs of A$341/t beat expectations, and Greenbushes’ EBITDA margins of 68% (FY25 YTD) at near-trough lithium prices outpace several gold miners enjoying record gold prices and ~60% margins, underscoring Greenbushes’ status as a Tier 1 asset.”

The high volume of insider buying — albeit not necessarily high dollar value — is interesting amid lithium’s ongoing price decline.

All transactions were by non-executive directors.

Top ASX 200 Insider Sells

Key takeaways

Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze sold approximately 5% of her holdings after a nearly 40% year-to-date rally in the share price, driven by escalating trade tensions and reciprocal China-US rare earths policy measures.

Operationally, Lynas’ March quarter disappointed, with production and revenue missing expectations. Pricing dynamics was a key focus as Lynas shifted from China-based benchmarks to direct customer negotiations, sparking analyst consensus that this could initiate pricing bifurcation. Analysts cautioned that customers might resist premiums initially.

Rising unit costs, operational challenges at Kalgoorlie, and delays at the Seadrift project raised concerns about margin pressure and execution risks, tempering enthusiasm despite geopolitical tailwinds. Overall, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with analysts viewing Lynas as strategically positioned but noting that significant earnings upside may not materialise until FY26.

Earlier this month, UBS reaffirmed a Buy rating on Lynas, raising its target price from $7.95 to $10.40, stating, “Low price settings have limited new entrants outside China, positioning Lynas uniquely with existing capacity — and capex already funded — to meet growing ex-China demand.”

Despite these supply-side advantages, Lynas shares have slid about 15% from their April 22 peak to $7.50, allowing Lacaze to sell her stake near the high.