Evening Wrap: ASX 200 tumbles, CBA reverses steep fall to close breakeven, US inflation data ahead

 The S&P/ASX 200 closed 100 points lower, down 1.41%. 

Another painful session for the local sharemarket led by Tech, Energy and Material stocks, Commonwealth Bank closes in positive territory after sliding -2.1% in early trade, Australian's consumer confidence flags a rare back-to-back reading, the 'time to buy a major household item' sub-index hits an all-time low and another high stakes US inflation print is due tonight at 11:30 pm AEDT.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 gaps down at the open but manages to close off session lows (Source: Market Index)

Markets

The broad-based pain continues, with the ASX 200 extending its losing streak to three and down 4.8% in the last five. The only thing positive about the session was that the market closed off session lows of 2.2%. Is the downward momentum too powerful or can the market muster up a bounce on Wednesday?

• Tech stocks led to the downside with notably decliners including Weebit Nano (-9.6%), Computershare (-7.7%), Iress (-4.1%) and Wisetech (-2.3%)

• Energy was heavy thanks to Woodside (-2.8%) and oil, which is down -3.6% in the last two sessions and close to breaking below recent lows US$73 a barrel

• Materials struggled for upside despite iron ore prices holding around US$132 a tonne. Goes to show what's taking precedence at the moment

• Financials declined but banks staged rather interesting intraday bounces, Commonwealth Bank (+0.2%) reversed from session lows of -2.1%

• Defensive sectors outperformed on a relative basis

Economy

Australia’s consumer confidence index was unchanged at 78.5 in March – back-to-back readings of below 80 are extremely rare and comparable only to the late 1980s recession and the ‘banana republic’ period in 1986. Key takeaways from Westpac’s report include: 

•  "The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index fell 4% to 74.9 in March, following a 10% fall last month. Apart from two brief tumbles during the GFC ... this is the lowest read on this component in the history of the survey going back to 1974."

• “The ‘time to buy a dwelling’ index fell 11.1% to an extreme low of just 65.7, making a decisive break out of the 75–80 range that has largely prevailed since March last year ... this is the weakest read .. since September 1989, when variable mortgage rates were 17%.

• The unemployment expectations index rose 2.9% in March after a 10.6% jump in February (the higher this is, the more consumers expect unemployment to rise). However, at 122.9, the index is still below its long-run average of 129

Australia’s business confidence index fell to -4 In February from 6 in January. Key takeaways from NAB’s report include:

• Business conditions fell 1 point to 17 points in February, which is considered “a very strong level in the history of the survey”

• Business confidence slumped into negative territory, led by sectors including wholesale, recreation and personal activities, finance and property

• “Price and cost growth remained high in February. Labour cost growth picked up further, to 2.8% in quarterly terms, after a brief low of 2.1% in December. Purchase costs growth remained at 3.1%. Output price growth was also steady at 1.6% in quarterly terms, with the retail component easing slightly to 1.9%.”  

Latest news

Market Insights

US inflation: The stakes could not be higher

Every US inflation print feels more important than the last. The data will be released tonight at 11:30 pm AEDT and the market expects:

• Inflation to fall from 6.4% in January to 6.0% in February

• Core inflation to fall from 5.6% to 5.5%

JPMorgan said that the labour market is showing evidence that "a downshift in inflation data remains intact" and how previous "inflation peaks reveal most of these episodes are symmetric and V-shaped."

Since 2022, there have only been two cooler-than-expected CPI prints, in August and November, which triggered a respective 2.1% and 5.5% rally for the S&P 500. However, given all the US bank drama, there's a lot more at play for tonight's reading.

Yields have spoken: From three hikes to one cut

"The market is now projecting a Fed Funds rate of 4.10% by the July meeting, or just under 50 bps of cuts from current levels. This was at 5.66% last Wednesday. That's 150 basis points of looser policy in less than a week," notes Bespoke Invest.

Source: Bespoke Invest

ASX 200 VIX spikes

The VIX has jumped from 11 a week ago to 16. The uptick in volatility makes it painful for traders and also difficult to argue for a sustainable uptrend. Here are some hypothetical examples:

• You short but the market is oversold and whipsaws against you (e.g. Commonwealth Bank today)

• You long a classic breakout pattern, it moves out but abruptly breaks down again

• You try to manage risk with a 5-8% stop loss which abruptly gets hit but the stock then bounces back up

ASX 200 VIX chart (Source: Market Index)

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +9.7% Neuren Pharma (NEU) – $40m milestone payment (Mon)

• Gold sector move: Ramelius (+5.8%), Perseus (+4.4%), Newcrest Mining (+3.0%)

Trading lower

• -16.9% Yancoal (YAL) – Ex-dividend

• Lithium sector move: Winsome Resources (-13.8%), Lake Resources (-8.%), Global Lithium (-8.0%), Core Lithium (-7.0%), Pilbara Minerals (-5.9%), Liontown (-5.7%)

• Financials sector move: Challenger (-5.6%), QBE Insurance (-3.7%), Suncorp (-3.6%)

• Banking sector move: NAB (-1.5%), ANZ (-1.5%)

Broker updates

Macquarie’s note on base metal miners:

• IGO remains its preferred exposure for lithium/nickel (Outperform with $20.00 target)

• Sandfire remains preferred exposure to copper (Outperform with $7.00 target)

• Centaurus Metals preferred nickel developer pick as the company’s Jaguar nickel  deposit has almost 1m tonnes of contained nickel (Outperform with $1.60 target)

• Carnaby Resources is the preferred copper explorer pick with a series of upcoming catalysts incl a maiden resource estimate (Outperform with $1.70 target)

• Chalice remains a key sector pick, with drilling results and scoping study as a key catalysts (Outperform with $8.00 target)

Plus a few standalone Macquarie notes:

Eclipx Group (ECX): Outperform with $2.28 target price

• “OEM production volumes, low by historical standards, are gradually improving, which Element expects to continue through June half 2023.”

• “Order backlog increased to ~C$3bn at December 2022, ~3x pre- pandemic levels. Element expects OEM production capacity to improve throughout 2023, with the order backlog to begin to recede in 2H CY23.”

Evolution Mining (EVN): Neutral with $2.80 target price

• FY23 production expectations was trimmed by 10,000 ounces and AISC increased by A$100/oz to reflect Ernest Henry’s mining hiatus

• “The company notes that a solid 3QFY23 performance thus far has seen a better than planned cash position that is “adequate” to handle the impact of the weather event with A$838m of liquidity reported at the 1HFY23 result.”

Nib (NHF): Neutral with $7.55 target price

• NHF’s entry into the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) represents “a growth opportunity as well as diversification over the medium term.”

•  “We conclude there is long-term optionality for NHF, but scale will take some time to reach and benefits across pillars of the system may require regulatory approval.”

Scans