The ASX 200 slipped as overnight US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz reignited Middle East tensions, pushing oil and bond yields higher and draining risk appetite from the market's most globally exposed sectors — gold, base metals, and energy. That capital had to go somewhere, and the banks and technology stocks the beneficiaries.
Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let’s dive in!
Today in Review
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,803.9 | -0.31% |
| All Ords | 9,004.7 | -0.36% |
| Small Ords | 3,390.8 | -1.27% |
| All Tech | 3,068.9 | +1.20% |
| Emerging Companies | 2,968.9 | -1.71% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.6942 | -0.20% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,570.5 | -0.28% |
| Dow Jones | 53,371.0 | -0.00% |
| Nasdaq | 29,665.0 | -0.92% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Information Technology | 1,839.6 | +2.01% |
| Communication Services | 1,630.9 | +1.58% |
| Financials | 9,487.8 | +1.25% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 3,958.4 | +0.69% |
| Consumer Staples | 13,054.4 | -0.04% |
| Health Care | 27,397.0 | -0.11% |
| Industrials | 8,416.3 | -0.46% |
| Utilities | 9,201.5 | -0.55% |
| Energy | 9,378.1 | -1.28% |
| Real Estate | 3,587.1 | -1.35% |
| Materials | 23,277.9 | -2.64% |
ASX 200 Intraday Chart
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Markets
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 27.1 points lower at 8,803.9, 0.45% from its session high and 0.19% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a disappointing 107 to 174.
Information Technology (XIJ) (+2.0%) shrugged off the turbulence in South Korea's KOSPI — which slumped a further 4.9% on Samsung's weak second-quarter update. Sentiment was largely lifted by a WiseTech Global (WTC) (+5.7%) governance development. The removal of Richard White from the chairman role was interpreted by the market as a meaningful de-risking of a stock that had shed more than 40% from its highs partly on governance concerns. Elsewhere in the sector, NextDC (NXT) (+3.6%), Technology One (TNE) (+1.9%), and Xero (XRO) (+1.8%) also gaining.
Communication Services (XTJ) (+1.6%) caught flows from the same risk rotation into tech-adjacent names that pushed the broader XIJ higher. Online classifieds — highly correlated with technology sentiment in a market where both sectors share similar valuation characteristics — led the gains: CAR Group (CAR) (+3.0%), REA Group (REA) (+2.5%), and Seek (SEK) (+2.1%) were all strongly higher.
Financials (XFJ) (+1.3%) was the session's most notable best performer and a textbook example of how the ASX operates as a zero-sum game — the capital flowing out of materials, gold, and energy had to be redeployed somewhere, and the major banks absorbed it. Bank of Queensland (BOQ) (+2.4%), Westpac (WBC) (+2.4%), National Australia Bank (NAB) (+1.5%), ANZ (ANZ) (+1.3%), and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) (+1.2%) all gained.
The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-4.3%) reversed the prior two sessions' recovery with brutal efficiency. The mechanism is now familiar — overnight US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed ICE Brent crude futures up 1.4% to US$72.97/bbl, stoking inflation fears, which lifted market bond yields, which in turn raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.
COMEX gold futures fell 0.6% to US$4,142/oz and COMEX silver futures dropped 1.3% to US$61.55/oz in the Asian session. Evolution Mining (EVN) (-5.3%), Northern Star Resources (NST) (-5.1%), Genesis Minerals (GMD) (-4.1%), and Perseus Mining (PRU) (-3.9%) all fell sharply.
In Materials (XMJ) (-2.6%), base metals, iron ore, rare earths, and lithium stocks all fell in unison with few stock-specific or macroeconomic data points to explain the uniform direction. COMEX copper futures fell 0.2% to US$6.217/lb and SGX iron ore futures slipped 0.6% to US$97.85/t, but base metals on the London Metals Exchange were largely flat on Monday – this was a lack of risk appetite for growth-sensitive assets, not a re-rating based on commodity price moves.
%20chart_7%20Jul.png)
Nickel Industries (ASX-NIC) chart
Base metals specialists bore the worst of it — Nickel Industries (NIC) (-4.3%), South32 (S32) (-4.3%), and Sandfire Resources (SFR) (-4.0%) were among the hardest hit. The major diversifieds — BHP (BHP) (-1.9%) and Rio Tinto (RIO) (-1.8%) — also fell.
In other commodities moves, lithium and rare earths stocks fell hard despite similarly relatively benign commodity price signals — Liontown Resources (LTR) (-7.6%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (-5.6%), Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-5.4%), Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) (-6.4%), and Iluka Resources (ILU) (-4.2%) were all lower. GFEX lithium carbonate futures in China eased just 0.7% to CNY 162,360/t and benchmark NdPr prices were actually 0.3% higher in China.
Real Estate (XPJ) (-1.3%) was caught in the same rising-yields environment that pressured gold — as a bond-proxy sector, property trusts lose relative appeal when risk-free rates rise. Stockland (SGP) (-2.8%), Ingenia Communities (INA) (-2.4%), and Charter Hall (CHC) (-2.1%) were all lower.
%20chart_7%20Jul.png)
Whitehaven Coal (ASX-WHC) chart
Energy (XEJ) (-1.3%) fell despite the oil price improvement — the sector's damage was concentrated in its uranium and coal sub-sectors, not its oil and gas names. Uranium stocks reversed recent gains: Boss Energy (BOE) (-8.9%), Deep Yellow (DYL) (-6.9%), and Paladin Energy (PDN) (-4.1%) all fell.
Coal stocks tracked the SGX Australian Premium Coking Coal futures lower by 1.6% to US$234.67/t — New Hope Corp. (NHC) (-6.3%), Whitehaven Coal (WHC) (-5.8%), and Yancoal Australia (YAL) (-3.7%) were all sharply lower. Oil and gas producers held up — Woodside Energy (WDS) (-0.5%) barely moved and Santos (STO) (-1.5%) was the notable exception.
Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catapult Sports (CAT) | $3.35 | +$0.25 | +8.1% | -8.2% | -42.4% |
| Netwealth Group (NWL) | $24.43 | +$1.54 | +6.7% | +14.9% | -29.6% |
| Wisetech Global (WTC) | $37.37 | +$2.00 | +5.7% | -6.1% | -66.8% |
| Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN) | $3.10 | +$0.14 | +4.7% | +18.8% | +4.0% |
| GenusPlus Group (GNP) | $10.25 | +$0.40 | +4.1% | +1.7% | +138.9% |
| Nufarm (NUF) | $2.83 | +$0.10 | +3.7% | +0.4% | +15.0% |
| NEXTDC (NXT) | $13.80 | +$0.48 | +3.6% | -13.0% | +1.1% |
| ARB Corporation (ARB) | $18.72 | +$0.57 | +3.1% | +1.7% | -45.2% |
| CAR Group (CAR) | $26.83 | +$0.78 | +3.0% | +1.4% | -27.5% |
| Liberty Financial Group (LFG) | $3.50 | +$0.10 | +2.9% | +10.8% | -3.0% |
| Qualitas (QAL) | $3.20 | +$0.09 | +2.9% | +21.2% | -8.6% |
| Digico Infrastructure REIT (DGT) | $2.51 | +$0.07 | +2.9% | +2.0% | -18.5% |
| Dicker Data (DDR) | $11.92 | +$0.33 | +2.8% | +6.8% | +42.1% |
| AUB Group (AUB) | $28.49 | +$0.72 | +2.6% | +11.9% | -16.9% |
| REA Group (REA) | $147.28 | +$3.61 | +2.5% | -7.3% | -36.5% |
| Bank of Queensland (BOQ) | $6.31 | +$0.15 | +2.4% | +4.8% | -19.3% |
| Genesis Energy (GNE) | $2.15 | +$0.05 | +2.4% | -1.4% | +4.0% |
| Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC) | $36.13 | +$0.84 | +2.4% | +3.8% | +7.9% |
| Ampol (ALD) | $34.31 | +$0.76 | +2.3% | -4.7% | +32.7% |
| Ryman Healthcare (RYM) | $1.84 | +$0.04 | +2.2% | -0.3% | -19.3% |
Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictive Discovery (PDI) | $0.66 | -$0.09 | -12.0% | -14.8% | +63.0% |
| Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) | $2.39 | -$0.24 | -9.1% | +6.2% | -13.1% |
| Liontown (LTR) | $1.53 | -$0.125 | -7.6% | -28.5% | +114.0% |
| Deep Yellow (DYL) | $1.355 | -$0.10 | -6.9% | -14.0% | -20.5% |
| FireFly Metals (FFM) | $1.815 | -$0.125 | -6.4% | -8.3% | +66.0% |
| Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) | $16.91 | -$1.15 | -6.4% | -6.9% | +107.7% |
| New Hope Corporation (NHC) | $4.94 | -$0.33 | -6.3% | -18.7% | +23.8% |
| Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) | $3.75 | -$0.25 | -6.2% | -5.5% | +53.7% |
| Elevra Lithium (ELV) | $9.50 | -$0.63 | -6.2% | -13.9% | +295.8% |
| Echo IQ (EIQ) | $1.53 | -$0.10 | -6.1% | +18.6% | +512.0% |
| Resolute Mining (RSG) | $0.935 | -$0.06 | -6.0% | -17.6% | +49.6% |
| Whitehaven Coal (WHC) | $7.11 | -$0.44 | -5.8% | -24.1% | +18.7% |
| Mineral Resources (MIN) | $60.95 | -$3.59 | -5.6% | -9.8% | +149.2% |
| Emerald Resources NL (EMR) | $5.46 | -$0.32 | -5.5% | -7.0% | +42.2% |
| PLS Group (PLS) | $4.86 | -$0.28 | -5.4% | -17.8% | +235.2% |
| West African Resources (WAF) | $2.79 | -$0.16 | -5.4% | -9.7% | +21.8% |
| Evolution Mining (EVN) | $11.94 | -$0.67 | -5.3% | +1.8% | +56.3% |
| Catalyst Metals (CYL) | $5.75 | -$0.32 | -5.3% | +10.8% | +11.2% |
| WA1 Resources (WA1) | $12.04 | -$0.66 | -5.2% | -8.7% | -21.2% |
| Silex Systems (SLX) | $5.12 | -$0.28 | -5.2% | -15.2% | +23.4% |
Chartwatch
Nasdaq Composite Index
Analysis
Not a terrible candle on Monday at all.
Sure, it didn't add much, but it's there-or-thereabouts for the typical 'Comp in a bull market but having a bit of a pullback' scenario!
For me, it suggests there's very little supply side motivation left in the market at all. Look at the silver of volume – granted, no doubt long-weekend influenced... But we've seen several sessions now that have lacked the 'wall of supply' feeling of the last few weeks.
If the supply side is done for now... And assuming the demand side remains as deep and as motivated as before, then the Comp is potentially ripe for its next run.
Before we all get too excited... let's recall: 'it didn't add much'!
I'm just sounding out the recent price action and volume as indicative of a potentially easier path for demand to impact the price.
There's no change to my standing Analysis: The MOTN remains pegged at P ➡️.
I Accept that I still want a decent whack of long side risk — I've been looking over charts of US stocks recently, and there's plenty of +R opportunities out there. But until I see a definitive demand side showing in the candles and price action near the 26789-27191 supply zone, I'm going to be like Fonzie and play it coooool... Aye! 👍
Once again I have confused the hell out of Market Index's younger viewers... Who the hell is Fonzie Carl!? 🤷
View
I am 1/2RP on the Comp ⚖️ (RP = Risk Position — it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100% 🪣).
Key Levels
Dead simple! 26789-27191 is the key zone of supply vs 24980-25015 is the key zone of demand. In between = 1/2RP vs >= FRP and <= 1/3RP.
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)
%20chart_7%20Jul.png)
Analysis
Ain't nothing cool about the OTP! 🤦
As promising as Friday's candle was, I didn't take the bait, nor do I expect – did you (let me quote my analysis for that candle: Not this little black duck!)
We remain stuck in the middle. Listless at both index level – and within the index – split between the haves and have-nots, with plenty of chop in between. 🪓🪓🪓
Can I note that the XMJ, integral to the OTPs overall fortunes, took a disturbing turn for the worse today. ⚠️
S&P-ASX 200 Materials Sector Index
Nobody reading this will be surprised by the fact that with the XMJ down, the XFJ absolutely had to be up to balance it out. Some of what Peter had was shifted to Paul. It's just how our old tin pot of a market works! ⚖️
S&P-ASX 200 Financials Sector Index
This is not to say that there aren't still strong trends around to fill up the 1/2RP I'm allowed to apply here, simply that I remain comfortable that the other 1/2RP sits very soundly in cash. 💰👍
View
I am 1/2RP on the OTP ⚖️ (i.e., my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in Australian stocks is 50%).
Key Levels
8984-9022 is the key zone of supply, while demand is at 8708-8656.
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Economy
Today
There weren't any major economic data releases today...
Later this week
Tuesday
22:15 USA May Trade Balance (-78.5 billion forecast vs -55.9 billion in April)
Wednesday
12:00 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate (+0.25% p.a. to 2.50% forecast)
Thursday
04:00 USA FOMC June Meeting Minutes
10:30 USA Weekly Unemployment Claims (218,000 forecast vs 215,000 previous)
Friday
00:00 USA June Existing Home Sales (4.2 million forecast vs 4.17 million in May)
Saturday
TBC USA Fed Monetary Policy Report & Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh Senate address
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
- Island Pharmaceuticals (ILA) $0.48+26.7%
Rose after it announced it had secured relevant Ugandan government and regulatory approvals for for the use of its Galidesivir antiviral drug as a treatment for Bundibugyo Ebola epidemic in Africa. Management said that the move will allow it to generate prospective human efficacy, safety and virological data during an active Ebola outbreak.
- Netwealth Group (NWL) $24.43+6.7%
Rose after it announced preliminary FY26 net inflows of $15.4 billion, and forecast net flows of $18–20 billion for FY27. FY26 EBITDA margin guidance of about 49% reaffirmed, FY27 guidance is around 47%. Management also announced that Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia would use the company's platform for ASX-listed equities and domestic investments.
- Wisetech Global (WTC) $37.37+5.7%
Rose after it appointed Raelene Murphy as independent chair, with founder Richard White stepping down as chair but remaining on the board as executive director and chief innovation officer; White denied recent media allegations and said media attacks could encourage short‑selling.
- Brazilian Critical Minerals (BCM) $0.06+5.5%
Rose after it announced hat it has received firm commitments for a non-underwritten $10 million (before costs) two-tranche institutional placement of approximately 190.1 million new fully paid ordinary shares in the company at an offer price of $0.053 per new share. Management said that the funds raised would be used to advance the company's Ema rare earths project towards a Final Investment Decision (FID), including detailed engineering and design, plus fund working capital, permitting and approvals, and advancing project offtake and strategic partnership agreements.
Trading Lower
- Hot Chili (HCH) $1.61-15.5%
Fell after it executed an amended and restated investment agreement with OR Royalties Inc granting a net smelter return royalty on the La Verde Project for a US$15 million cash payment to help fund advancement of La Verde without share dilution.
- Lynas Rare Earths (LYC) $16.91-6.4%
Fell after it announced it will invest about $50 million to support construction of a rare earth permanent magnet factory in Malaysia in partnership with South Korea’s JS Link (3,000 tpa NdFeB capacity).
- Cobram Estate Olives (CBO) $3.75-6.3%
Fell after it announced expected completion of its 2026 Australian olive harvest, milling ~74,300 tonnes (vs 80,000 in 2025) to produce ~11.3 million litres of olive oil (vs 14.2 million litres in 2025); own‑grove production ~10.6 million litres (vs 13.2 million).
- West African Resources (WAF) $2.79-5.4%
Fell after it provided a June quarter 2026 production update from Sanbrado and Kiaka, reporting quarterly gold production of 125,179 oz and year‑to‑date production of 232,905 oz; management said it is on track for 2026 guidance of 430,000–490,000 oz.
- The a2 Milk Company (A2M) $7.37-4.4%
Fell after it said it expects FY26 results at or slightly ahead of previous guidance despite supply chain disruptions in China late in the year; FY26 revenue ~ $1.97 billion and EBITDA margins at the top end of 14–14.5%; China‑label infant formula sales fell ~14% in FY26 due to shortages and logistics issues, but product flows have since materially improved.
Broker Moves
Company | Broker | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
A2MThe a2 Milk Company | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $6.70 |
ALLAristocrat Leisure | Citi | Retained | Buy | $61.00 |
ANNAnsell | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $34.25(from $35.60) |
ARBARB Corporation | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $27.80 |
ASXASX | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $56.50(from $56.20) |
| Macquarie | Retained | Neutral | $51.00(from $54.00) | |
| UBS | Retained | Buy | $62.00 | |
BHPBHP Group | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $60.00 |
CHCCharter Hall Group | UBS | Retained | Buy | $24.75 |
CPUComputershare | Jarden | Downgraded | Underweight(from Neutral) | $31.90(from $30.40) |
| Macquarie | Retained | Neutral | $38.00(from $36.00) | |
CRNCoronado Global Resources Inc | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $0.21 |
CYCCyclopharm | Bell Potter | Retained | Buy | $1.00 |
DMPDomino's Pizza Enterprises | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $21.00(from $22.00) |
DRRDeterra Royalties | Macquarie | Downgraded | Neutral(from Outperform) | $4.70 |
DXSDexus | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $6.68 |
EVNEvolution Mining | Macquarie | Downgraded | Neutral(from Outperform) | $12.00(from $13.00) |
FLTFlight Centre Travel Group | UBS | Retained | Buy | $14.70 |
FMGFortescue | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $19.70 |
GGPGreatland Resources | Citi | Retained | Buy | $16.00 |
GMDGenesis Minerals | Bell Potter | Retained | Buy | $9.75(from $9.90) |
| Euroz Hartleys | Retained | Buy | $7.51 | |
| Moelis Australia | Retained | Buy | $8.50 | |
| UBS | Retained | Buy | $10.05 | |
GMGGoodman Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $40.00 |
| UBS | Retained | Buy | $33.92 | |
LNWLight & Wonder Inc. | Citi | Retained | Buy | $149.00 |
LYCLynas Rare Earths | Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $22.00 |
MGRMirvac Group | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $1.97 |
MINMineral Resources | UBS | Retained | Buy | $79.00 |
PXAPEXA Group | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $11.80 |
QANQantas Airways | Morgans | Initiated | Accumulate | $11.50 |
QBEQBE Insurance Group | Macquarie | Downgraded | Neutral(from Outperform) | $23.90(from $24.60) |
RIORio Tinto | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $177.00 |
RRLRegis Resources | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $8.10 |
SGPStockland | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $4.32(from $4.95) |
SNTSyntara | Bell Potter | Retained | Speculative Buy | $0.06 |
TWETreasury Wine Estates | Citi | Retained | Buy | $5.50 |
VAUVault Minerals | Argonaut Securities | Retained | Buy | $7.20 |
| Euroz Hartleys | Retained | Buy | $6.80 | |
| Moelis Australia | Retained | Buy | $7.70 | |
WHCWhitehaven Coal | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $8.70 |
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| RGT | Argent Biopharma Ltd | $0.072 | +105.71% |
| 8CO | 8COMMON Ltd | $0.039 | +62.50% |
| AD1 | Adneo Ltd | $0.02 | +53.85% |
| FOS | FOS Capital Ltd | $0.14 | +40.00% |
| ILA | Island Pharmaceuticals Ltd | $0.475 | +26.67% |
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHU | Neu Horizon Uranium Ltd | $0.14 | -30.00% |
| IMU | Imugene Ltd | $0.105 | -22.22% |
| FUL | Fulcrum Lithium Ltd | $0.065 | -18.75% |
| C1X | Cosmos Exploration Ltd | $0.11 | -18.52% |
| HFR | Highfield Resources Ltd | $0.019 | -17.39% |
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| HMX | Hammer Metals Ltd | $0.066 | +21.10% |
| OIL | Optiscan Imaging Ltd | $0.15 | +11.11% |
| CCE | Carnegie Clean Energy Ltd | $0.225 | +7.14% |
| HGO | Hillgrove Resources Ltd | $0.06 | +5.26% |
| AVR | Anteris Technologies Global Corp | $15.30 | +3.38% |
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| NHU | Neu Horizon Uranium Ltd | $0.14 | -30.00% |
| DTZ | DOTZ Nano Ltd | $0.025 | -16.67% |
| VR8 | Vanadium Resources Ltd | $0.012 | -14.29% |
| CND | Condor Energy Ltd | $0.014 | -12.50% |
| EVE | EVE Health Group Ltd | $0.017 | -10.53% |
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| MYE | Mastermyne Group Ltd | $0.31 | +3.33% |
| HGBL | Betashares Global Shares Currency Hedged ETF | $84.93 | +0.12% |
| MQGPG | Macquarie Group Ltd | $104.93 | +0.03% |
| DGVA | Dimensional Global Value Trust - Active ETF | $30.25 | +0.23% |
| WDMF | iShares World Equity Factor ETF | $54.74 | -0.15% |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| VLUE | Vaneck MSCI International Value ETF | $36.97 | -0.38% |
| JPHQ | Jpmorgan US 100Q EQ Prem Inc (Hedged) Active ETF | $55.90 | -0.50% |
| RCE | Recce Pharmaceuticals Ltd | $0.38 | 0.00% |
| JDO | Judo Capital Holdings Ltd | $0.91 | +1.68% |
| MSTR | Morningstar International Shares Active ETF | $8.35 | +0.60% |
