The ASX 200 fell as a Democrat sweep of the US midterm elections sparked fears of greater AI scrutiny and heavier regulation of data centre expansion, dragging growth and cyclical stocks lower. It was a session for the defensives — energy, utilities, and the banks held their ground while everything else retreated.
Be sure to click/scroll through for the usual reporting of the major sector and stock-specific moves, the broker responses to them, as well as all the key economic data in tonight's Evening Wrap. Also, I have detailed technical analysis on the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P/ASX 200 in today's ChartWatch.
Let’s dive in!
Today in Review
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Major Indices | ||
| ASX 200 | 8,834.5 | -0.59% |
| All Ords | 8,954.9 | -0.60% |
| Small Ords | 3,124.7 | -0.86% |
| All Tech | 2,816.6 | -0.51% |
| Emerging Companies | 2,687.5 | -0.33% |
Currency | ||
| AUD/USD | 0.6977 | +0.16% |
US Futures | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,555.0 | -0.55% |
| Dow Jones | 51,731.0 | -0.32% |
| Nasdaq | 28,094.0 | -0.75% |
Name | Value | % Chg |
|---|---|---|
Sector | ||
| Utilities | 10,815.4 | +1.17% |
| Energy | 10,754.0 | +0.86% |
| Consumer Staples | 13,189.5 | +0.28% |
| Information Technology | 1,632.8 | +0.17% |
| Communication Services | 1,618.6 | -0.01% |
| Financials | 9,782.8 | -0.20% |
| Health Care | 34,088.8 | -0.66% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 3,751.1 | -0.68% |
| Real Estate | 3,409.7 | -1.09% |
| Industrials | 8,240.3 | -1.25% |
| Materials | 21,557.5 | -1.46% |
ASX 200 Intraday Chart
%20intraday%20chart_4%20Nov.png)
Markets
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) finished 52.3 points lower at 8,834.5, 0.6% from its session high and 0.37% from its low. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO) advancers lagged decliners by a disturbing 100 to 181.
Utilities (XUJ) (+1.2%) was the session’s best sector — a classic flight to the defensive income plays that investors reach for when political uncertainty clouds the growth outlook. Origin Energy (ORG) (+1.9%) and APA Group (APA) (+0.5%) both advanced.
Energy (XEJ) (+0.9%) partly reversed Tuesday’s heavy losses, with ICE benchmark Brent crude oil futures edging +0.3% to US$103.88/bbl in Asian trade, extending a stabilisation after Monday night’s 7.6% plunge on Middle East peace talk hopes. Fuel refiners and retailers led the recovery: Viva Energy (VEA) (+4.1%) and Ampol (ALD) (+1.3%) both bounced. Oil and gas names also firmed: Santos (STO) (+1.0%) and Woodside Energy (WDS) (+1.0%) recovered some ground.
%20intraday%20chart_4%20Nov.png)
S&P/ASX 200 Energy Sector Index (XEJ) intraday chart
Financials (XFJ) (-0.2%) played their typical anchor role in a defensive session. Insurance names led: Insurance Australia Group (IAG) (+1.7%) and QBE Insurance (QBE) (+0.8%) both gained. Among the big four banks, Westpac Banking Corp (WBC) (+0.5%) and National Australia Bank (NAB) (+0.5%) logged solid relative gains against the broader index’s decline.
%20intraday%20chart_4%20Nov.png)
S&P/ASX 200 Financials Sector Index (XFJ) intraday chart
Materials (XMJ) (-1.5%) bore the brunt as the Democrat midterm sweep amplified fears around AI spending and the regulation of data centre build-out — copper is a critical component of both, and COMEX copper futures had already fallen 2.5% overnight before sliding a further -0.3% to US$6.385/lb in Asian trade, testing the key technical support level at ~US$6.35/lb (long term uptrend ribbon) that ChartWatch is watching closely.
Sandfire Resources (SFR) (-2.1%) and Nickel Industries (NIC) (-2.6%) led the copper and nickel selling, while IGO (IGO) (-2.8%) and Sims Metal (SGM) (-3.8%) also fell.
Iron ore bucked the trend — SGX iron ore futures rose +1.1% to US$91.70/t in Asian trade — but it did nothing for sentiment in the sector. Champion Iron (CIA) (-4.9%) and Fortescue (FMG) (-1.5%) both fell despite the commodity’s advance.
Lithium stocks continued their grind lower, with GFEX lithium carbonate futures slipping a further -0.8% to CNY88,620/t and inching toward the CNY80,000/t level that many investment banks have flagged as cost-price support — a floor that, if breached, would likely confirm the third bear market in less than a decade is likely to be protracted. Elevra Lithium (ELV) (-3.8%), Mineral Resources (MIN) (-3.2%), Liontown Resources (LTR) (-2.4%), and Pilbara Minerals (PLS) (-1.1%) all fell.
%20intraday%20chart_4%20Nov.png)
S&P/ASX 200 Materials Sector Index (XMJ) intraday chart
The Gold Sub-Index (XGD) (-0.8%) dipped despite COMEX gold futures rising +2.0% to US$4,018/oz in Asian trade — an unusual disconnect that likely reflects the ongoing rotation away from resources broadly, with investors not yet willing to trust the gold price bounce after last week’s sharp decline through the US$4,000 level. Northern Star Resources (NST) (-2.0%) and West African Resources (WAF) (-1.9%) both fell.
Real Estate (XPJ) (-1.1%) and Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) (-0.7%) gave back a portion of Tuesday’s RBA-inspired rally. The reality of slower consumer spending is likely to have reasserted itself — official interest rates have now risen five times this year — and what had been a somewhat counterintuitive surge on the back of the RBA’s perceived peak-rate signal was partially unwound.
Goodman Group (GMG) (-1.6%), GPT Group (GPT) (-1.6%), Scentre Group (SCG) (-1.4%), and Mirvac (MGR) (-1.3%) all retreated in real estate. In consumer discretionary, Eagers Automotive (APE) (-3.6%), JB Hi-Fi (JBH) (-2.0%), Universal Store (UNI) (-2.0%), and Temple & Webster (TPW) (-1.9%) all fell.
Health Care (XHJ) (-0.7%) was notably absent from the defensive shopping list — and this has been a growing theme over recent sessions. Ansell (ANN) (-2.0%), Pro Medicus (PME) (-1.4%), Sonic Healthcare (SHL) (-1.0%), and CSL (CSL) (-0.7%) all fell.
Today's best ASX Top 300 gainers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block, Inc. (XYZ) | $116.31 | +$6.65 | +6.1% | +9.1% | +3.1% |
| Qualitas (QAL) | $2.65 | +$0.11 | +4.3% | +19.4% | -27.6% |
| Benz Mining Corp (BNZ) | $4.01 | +$0.16 | +4.2% | -14.7% | +163.8% |
| NEXTDC (NXT) | $6.53 | +$0.26 | +4.2% | -39.2% | -59.8% |
| Viva Energy Group (VEA) | $2.81 | +$0.11 | +4.1% | -13.3% | +55.2% |
| BCI Minerals (BCI) | $0.535 | +$0.02 | +3.9% | -13.0% | +39.0% |
| EQ Resources (EQR) | $0.28 | +$0.01 | +3.7% | -30.0% | +582.9% |
| Codan (CDA) | $59.81 | +$2.00 | +3.5% | -11.3% | +64.4% |
| The Star Entertainment Group (SGR) | $0.16 | +$0.005 | +3.2% | +28.0% | +79.8% |
| Southern Cross Gold Consolidated (SX2) | $8.42 | +$0.25 | +3.1% | -28.1% | -4.2% |
| Minerals 260 (MI6) | $0.725 | +$0.02 | +2.8% | -16.2% | +158.9% |
| PYC Therapeutics (PYC) | $1.85 | +$0.05 | +2.8% | -24.8% | +60.5% |
| Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) | $13.32 | +$0.32 | +2.5% | -12.1% | -15.4% |
| Endeavour Group (EDV) | $3.51 | +$0.08 | +2.3% | +17.8% | -2.2% |
| Aspen Group (APZ) | $4.98 | +$0.11 | +2.3% | +10.9% | -5.1% |
| Spark New Zealand (SPK) | $1.645 | +$0.035 | +2.2% | +3.5% | -21.3% |
| Yancoal Australia (YAL) | $5.80 | +$0.12 | +2.1% | +1.6% | +3.0% |
| St Barbara (SBM) | $0.745 | +$0.015 | +2.1% | -5.1% | +43.3% |
| Ora Banda Mining (OBM) | $1.28 | +$0.025 | +2.0% | -13.2% | +8.0% |
| Smartgroup Corporation (SIQ) | $11.30 | +$0.22 | +2.0% | +0.1% | +37.6% |
Today's worst ASX Top 300 losers
Company | Last Price | Change $ | Change % | 1mo % | 1yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4DMedical (4DX) | $2.15 | -$0.26 | -10.8% | -50.5% | +33.5% |
| Silex Systems (SLX) | $3.02 | -$0.32 | -9.6% | -27.6% | -67.8% |
| Electro Optic Systems Holdings (EOS) | $7.24 | -$0.61 | -7.8% | -37.0% | +13.8% |
| DroneShield (DRO) | $1.21 | -$0.10 | -7.6% | -33.7% | -70.9% |
| Heartland Group Holdings (HGH) | $0.94 | -$0.065 | -6.5% | -7.4% | -2.1% |
| Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI) | $15.23 | -$0.96 | -5.9% | +13.4% | -18.1% |
| Netwealth Group (NWL) | $18.35 | -$1.14 | -5.8% | +6.6% | -40.5% |
| Qantas Airways (QAN) | $8.90 | -$0.46 | -4.9% | +1.3% | -13.1% |
| Champion Iron (CIA) | $1.765 | -$0.09 | -4.9% | -42.3% | -68.1% |
| Austal (ASB) | $4.21 | -$0.20 | -4.5% | -4.1% | -39.5% |
| Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) | $19.78 | -$0.88 | -4.3% | -2.5% | -4.4% |
| Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ) | $5.02 | -$0.22 | -4.2% | -12.8% | -51.5% |
| HUB24 (HUB) | $73.33 | -$3.17 | -4.1% | +12.8% | -35.9% |
| Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN) | $2.59 | -$0.11 | -4.1% | -4.8% | -20.6% |
| Barrenjoey Group (BJY) | $8.13 | -$0.34 | -4.0% | +0.5% | -15.0% |
| Sims (SGM) | $20.96 | -$0.82 | -3.8% | -12.8% | +33.4% |
| Ingenia Communities Group (INA) | $5.12 | -$0.20 | -3.8% | +7.1% | -7.9% |
| Generation Development Group (GDG) | $3.14 | -$0.12 | -3.7% | +15.4% | -55.6% |
| Eagers Automotive (APE) | $19.14 | -$0.72 | -3.6% | +4.9% | -41.2% |
| Worley (WOR) | $9.95 | -$0.36 | -3.5% | +4.6% | -29.0% |
Chartwatch
Nasdaq Composite Index
Nasdaq Composite Index chart
Analysis
Blip.
Blip up, at least. 🤷
But look at what came before that blip, and I think you’ll agree it’s an underwhelming showing from the demand side.
FOMO?
HOFU?
BTD? 🧐
Hardly.
But (and not trying to hedge my bets — just stating the bleeding obvious!), the mightiest rallies must start somehow… and sometimes they begin with a modest blip-up.
It doesn’t really matter, though, does it? 🤔
It’s not like Tuesday’s candle changes our Analysis. I’ll spare you the checklist, but suffice it to say: ST Trend = supply side control vs LT Trend = demand side control.
That last one better get a wriggle on or it risks fading to LT Trend = Equilibrium.
Our Accept therefore remains unchanged: MOTN the price should go ➡️ from here… but there's a decent chance the long term trend ribbon does its job, acts as a zone of dynamic excess demand, and we may get some ⬆️.
If it doesn’t hold, that will shift our Analysis, and Accept to MOTN ⬇️.
Until then, Act is a bit of a snooze… 😴
View
I am 1/2RP on US stocks (RP = Risk Position – it reflects my personal allowable capital allocation limit for my investments in US stocks. So 1/2RP is 50%, 2/3RP is 67% and FRP is 100%).
Key Levels
The short term trend ribbon is the closest (dynamic) zone of supply (presently 26250–26382). The long term uptrend ribbon is the closest (dynamic) zone of demand (presently 25908-25732).
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO)
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) chart
Analysis
Um, the zebra on the right appears to be...🫤
Is essentially what I'd be blah blah-blahing if I tried analyse the OTP's chart.
50% cash. 💰
Sounds pretty darn attractive right now. 😴
(the real chart of the OTP below... 👇 no commentary required...)
%20chart_4%20Nov.png)
S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) chart
View
I am 1/2RP on Australian shares (i.e., 50% cash vs 50% invested, with some of the invested portion allocated to shorts).
Key Levels
8935-8940 is the closest zone of supply vs 8613-8641 is the critical zone of demand.
(Glossary of acronyms! Old Tin Pot (OTP): S&P/ASX 200 | MOTN: More Often Than Not | FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out | HOFU: Holding On For Upside | BTD: Buy The Dip | NUTE: No Urgency To Enter | FOHO: Fear Of Holding On | STR: Sell The Rally | RP: Risk Position | FFS: Fund Flow Shenanigans!)
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Economy
TODAY
AUS October Consumer Spending:
Result: +0.6% m/m vs +0.2% m/m forecast and +0.0% m/m in September
Reader: Some of that +0.6% month-on-month gain is inflation... but we're all kinda responsible for poor old Michelle Bullock's worst nightmare! 🤣 Too much demand!!!
LATER THIS WEEK
WEDNESDAY
USA October ISM Service PMI (54.9 forecast, unchanged)
THURSDAY
UK Bank of England Official Rate (+0.25% p.a. forecast to 4.00% p.a.)
FRIDAY
21:30 USA October Non-Farm Payroll Data
Employment change: +63,000 forecast v s+29,000 in September
Average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.1% m/m in September
Unemployment rate: +4.2% forecast, unchanged
Interesting Movers
Trading higher
- Janus Electric Holdings (JNS) $0.64+16.4%
Released a market update. Reported progress against the three-horizon growth strategy. Outlined Horizon Two plans (expansion across five US regions, proposed RANGER JV in WA, increased production capacity, capital-light charging and energy network). Restated FY27 revenue guidance of A$70–100 million.
- Fortifai (FTI) $0.29+14.0%
Announced that NOL8 Co-Founder and CTO Dr Alon Rashelbach is appointed Executive Director and General Manager of the Israeli R&D Division, and that Jason Brushe joins from NVIDIA to lead sales and marketing.
- City Chic Collective (CCX) $0.04+13.9%
Issued a trading update. Management is expecting positive earnings in H1 FY2026-27 and a positive cash balance at H1. Group revenue excl. wholesale -1.7% pcp but gross margin dollars +2.2% and full-price store sales +19.6%.
- Artrya (AYA) $3.34+8.1%
No news. Small med-techs appeared to find some love today... 🤔
- Myer Holdings (MYR) $0.23+7.0%
No ASX announcement today, but note this is the second-straight strong gain after media speculation that David Jones will close a substantial number of its loss-making stores.
- Echo IQ (EIQ) $0.52+6.2%
No news. Small med-techs appeared to find some love today... 🤔
- Block, Inc. (XYZ) $116.31+6.1%
Released September quarter results. Earnings modestly beat estimates and management lifted its outlook slightly (Q3 gross profit up 22% to US$3.2bn. Management now expects US$12.6 billion gross profit for 2026.
- Imricor Medical Systems Inc (IMR) $1.33+4.7%
No news. Small med-techs appeared to find some love today... 🤔
- Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX) $13.32+2.5%
Held its investor day today. Released a new company presentation in which it discussed progress and pipeline, but nothing obviously new in terms of guidance.
Trading Lower
- Dateline Resources (DTR) $0.07-6.6%
Released an update regarding legal issues in the US. Noted that the company and the US Government have each lodged motions with the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit to stay the preliminary injunction pending appeal. DTR is a regular in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends List. 📉
- Champion Iron (CIA) $1.74-6.2%
Substantial share holder notice stating that JP Morgan now owns 5% of the company. The substantial holding appears largely attributable to securities-lending activity – potentially including the facilitation of short selling – rather than a conventional investment stake. CIA is a regular in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends List. 📉
- Elevra Lithium (ELV) $3.01-4.8%
Substantial share holder notice stating that JP Morgan now owns 5% of the company. The substantial holding appears largely attributable to securities-lending activity – potentially including the facilitation of short selling – rather than a conventional investment stake. ELV is a regular in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends List. 📉
- Boss Energy (BOE) $1.32-4.7%
Announced that Sprott has increased its substantial holding in the company from 14.1% to 15.4% (seems good news, didn't help!). BOE is a regular in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends List. 📉
- Deep Yellow (DYL) $0.66-4.7%
Substantial share holder notice stating that JP Morgan now owns 5% of the company. The substantial holding appears largely attributable to securities-lending activity – potentially including the facilitation of short selling – rather than a conventional investment stake. DYL is a regular in the ChartWatch ASX Scans Downtrends List. 📉
Broker Moves
Company | Broker | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
4DX4DMedical | Ord Minnett | Upgraded | Hold(from Sell) | $2.40(from $3.00) |
AIAAuckland International Airport | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Equal Weight | $8.88 |
ALDAmpol | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $45.00 |
ALLAristocrat Leisure | Macquarie | Retained | Outperform | $67.00 |
| Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $63.90 | |
AMCAmcor Plc | UBS | Retained | Buy | $78.00 |
ATXAmplia Therapeutics | Bell Potter | Retained | Speculative Buy | $0.42 |
BGDBarton Gold Holdings | Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $2.30 |
BRGBreville Group | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $38.00 |
BSLBlueScope Steel | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Equal Weight | $35.00 |
CARCAR Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $33.30 |
CHCCharter Hall Group | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $26.90 |
CIAChampion Iron | UBS | Retained | Buy | $3.10(from $3.60) |
CKFCollins Foods | Citi | Retained | Neutral | $9.12 |
COHCochlear | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $135.00 |
CSLCSL | UBS | Retained | Buy | $225.00 |
DDRDicker Data | UBS | Retained | Neutral | $15.90(from $15.40) |
DMPDomino's Pizza Enterprises | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Underweight | $16.00 |
DYLDeep Yellow | Ord Minnett | Downgraded | Speculative Buy(from Buy) | $1.95(from $2.10) |
EDVEndeavour Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $3.85(from $3.89) |
GDGGeneration Development Group | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $5.00 |
GLFGemlife Communities Group | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $5.85 |
GMGGoodman Group | Citi | Retained | Buy | $40.00 |
IAGInsurance Australia Group | UBS | Retained | Buy | $9.10 |
JHXJames Hardie Industries Plc | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $48.00 |
| UBS | Retained | Neutral | $45.00 | |
KCNKingsgate Consolidated | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $7.90(from $8.00) |
MM1Midas Minerals | Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $1.90(from $1.50) |
ORIOrica | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $28.00 |
PDNPaladin Energy | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $9.95 |
QANQantas Airways | Citi | Retained | Buy | $10.75(from $11.50) |
| Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $12.80 | |
RPLRegal Partners | Ord Minnett | Retained | Buy | $3.40(from $4.90) |
S32South32 | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Equal Weight | $5.20 |
SCGScentre Group | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $4.44 |
SGHSGH | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $48.00 |
SIGSigma Healthcare | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Overweight | $3.30 |
TLCThe Lottery Corporation | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Equal Weight | $5.55 |
TORTorque Metals | Canaccord Genuity | Retained | Speculative Buy | $0.50(from $0.55) |
TTXTetratherix | Ord Minnett | Upgraded | Lighten(from Sell) | $4.70(from $5.30) |
WDSWoodside Energy Group | Macquarie | Retained | Neutral | $32.60 |
| Morgan Stanley | Retained | Equal Weight | $32.00 | |
WESWesfarmers | Morgan Stanley | Retained | Equal Weight | $70.50 |
Scans
Top Gainers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| BPM | BPM Minerals Ltd | $0.32 | +77.78% |
| AXI | Axtec Ltd | $0.013 | +62.50% |
| EMB | Embelton Ltd | $11.60 | +40.61% |
| KYN | Kyron Capital Group | $0.029 | +31.82% |
| CYP | Cynata Therapeutics Ltd | $0.013 | +30.00% |
Top Fallers
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| KEY | KEY Petroleum Ltd | $0.052 | -36.59% |
| GW1 | Greenwing Resources Ltd | $0.084 | -30.00% |
| AUG | Augustus Minerals Ltd | $0.02 | -25.93% |
| NOX | Noxopharm Ltd | $0.036 | -25.00% |
| JAL | Jameson Resources Ltd | $0.037 | -24.49% |
52 Week Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMB | Embelton Ltd | $11.60 | +40.61% |
| TWE | Treasury Wine Estates Ltd | $6.35 | +1.76% |
| IAG | Insurance Australia Group Ltd | $8.91 | +1.71% |
| CWY | Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd | $3.01 | +0.33% |
52 Week Lows
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Augustus Minerals Ltd | $0.02 | -25.93% |
| NOX | Noxopharm Ltd | $0.036 | -25.00% |
| FXG | FELIX Gold Ltd | $0.11 | -21.43% |
| IOD | Iodm Ltd | $0.062 | -20.51% |
| RAG | Ragnar Metals Ltd | $0.012 | -20.00% |
Near Highs
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| BEAR | Betashares Australian Equities Bear Complex ETF | $7.41 | -0.14% |
| RHC | Ramsay Health Care Ltd | $55.22 | -0.95% |
| OZBD | Betashares Australian Composite Bond ETF | $43.09 | +0.16% |
| AN3PI | Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd | $102.65 | -0.06% |
| PCI | Perpetual Credit Income Trust | $1.075 | +0.47% |
Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold
Code | Company | Last | % Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| FANG | Global X Fang+ ETF | $33.78 | -2.40% |
| ETPMPM | Global X Metal Securities Australia Ltd | $331.50 | +0.44% |
| RAC | Racura Oncology Ltd | $1.45 | -1.36% |
| AMP | AMP Ltd | $2.13 | -9.36% |
| BHM | Broken Hill Mines Ltd | $0.405 | -5.81% |
