Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rallies, led by iron ore miners, tech and banks + Inflation falls to 6.0%

The Index rallies to a 5-month high led by iron ore miners and the Big Four Banks, Australia's inflation eased in June, Wisetech hits another fresh all-time high, defensive sectors continue to underperform the market and a few Macquarie notes of interest.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 rallies after the 11:30 am inflation print and finishes near session highs (Source: Market Index)

ASX 200 Daily Chart

ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

Markets

The ASX 200 finished higher, near best levels and pushed above a key trendline. The intraday spike coincided with solid Australian CPI print, which was in-line with market expectations. Iron ore majors continue to be the place to be, with BHP and Rio Tinto rallying to three month highs and Fortescue breaking out to levels not seen since August 2021. Participation was a little broader on Wednesday, with Financials, Discretionary and Tech sectors up at least 0.9%. There's clearly an appetite for risk as Defensives like Utilities, Healthcare and Real Estate underperformed by a wide margin. The Index is breaking out but its doing so in a very selective way. We have the Fed interest rate decision and press conference tonight so let's see if the market can stay higher for longer (sorry).

Economy

Australia’s inflation eased to 5.4% in June from 5.5% in May.

• In-line with consensus expectations

• Inflation was 6.0% in the second quarter, down from 7.0% in the first and below expectations of 6.2%

• "CPI inflation slowed in the June quarter, with the quarterly rise being the lowest since September 2021. While prices continued to rise for most goods and services, there were some offsetting price falls this quarter including for domestic holiday travel and accommodation and automotive fuel.” – Michelle Marquardt, ABS Head of Price Statistics 

• “Rents recorded the strongest quarterly rise since 1988, reflecting low vacancy rates amid a tight rental market. Rental price growth for flats continued to outpace the growth for houses.”

Latest news

What happened today?

It feels like a very Resource and Tech centric market right now. It's either exposure to these two sectors or underperform.

Wisetech (ASX: WTC) rallied 2.4% to another all-time high. And iron ore majors continued to push recent highs.

Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) posted its Q4 results, with iron ore shipments of 4.3m wmt (vs. 4.6m wmt consensus) at realised prices of $91 a tonne. The stock finished the session 4.1% higher. Other notable data points include

• Mt Marion Spodumene 120k dmt, in-line with expectations

• Wodgina spodumene 102k dmt below 111k expected

• FY23 mining services production, Mt Marion and Wodgina lithium chemical figures were all in-line with company guidance

Lithium stocks continued to bounce but in a rather selective fashion. Stocks that led to the upside include heavyweights Pilbara Minerals (+4.6%) and Allkem (+2.5%) as well as those with recent exploration success/momentum including Patriot Battery Metals (+6.2%), Delta Lithium (+2.9%) and Latin Resource (+1.5%)

The S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index breaks a three-day losing streak and closes at its highest level since late February 2023.

S&P/ASX 200 Financials Index daily chart (Source: TradingView)

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +9.9% Kogan (KGN) – Earnings

• +6.9% Global Lithium (GL1) – Updated MRE

• +6.9% Beach Energy (BPT) – Q4 production report

• +5.7% Catapult Group (CAT) – Guidance

• +4.6% Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

• +4.1% Mineral Resources (MIN) – Q4 production report

• +4.0% Mader Group (MAD) – Earnings (Tue)

• +2.0% Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF) – Valuation update

• +1.2% Iluka (ILU) – Q2 production update

• Iron ore sector move: Champion Iron (+5.4%), Mount Gibson Iron (+4.2%), BHP (+2.3%), Fortescue (+2.3%), Rio Tinto (+1.4%)

Trading lower

• -16.7% AMA Group (AMA) – Pullback after +43% in last three

• -10.5% Austal (ASB) – Guidance

• -6.2% Splitit Payments (SPT) – Signs US$10m convertible note

• -5.2% Grange Resources (GRR) – Q2 production report

• -3.9% Somnomed (SOM) – Preliminary earnings

• -3.3% Develop Global (DVP) – Earnings

Broker notes

A few Macquarie notes of interest:

29Metals (29M) – Neutral with $0.78 target price ($0.71 as at 25 July)

• “Neutral: 29M had a strong 2Q CY23, with better-than- expected copper and zinc production from Golden Grove, while operating costs were in line. Potential insurance payments from Capricorn could provide upside to our base case.”

Boss Energy (BOE) – Outperform with $3.50 target price ($2.92 as at 24 July)

• “BOE has stated that the restart of the Honeymoon Uranium project is 79% complete, and remains on track and on budget for first production in CY23.”

• “The Honeymoon uranium project is fully licensed, in a tier-one jurisdiction and has a near-term path to market buoyed by rallying uranium prices.”

Newcrest Mining (NCM) – Neutral with $27.00 target price ($26.50 as at 24 July)

• “4QFY23 gold production was 4% below our expectation while AISC was 20% higher, with NCM meeting FY23 production and AISC guidance.”

• “Despite the strong QoQ production lift Lihir was below plan due to extreme rainfall while costs were up due to capex at Lihir, Cadia and Red Chris.”

West African Resources (WAF) – Outperform with $1.60 target price ($0.92 as at 25 July)

• “WAF announced its 2QCY23 report with production slightly beating our expectations, while AISC was 5% higher.”

• “YTD production of 113koz represents 51% of the mid-point of CY23 guidance while YTD AISC of US$1,169/oz is below the <US$1,175/oz guided.”

Scans