Evening Wrap: ASX 200 rallies 1.6% led by copper, gold and real estate stocks

The Index rallied for a third-straight day as US inflation cools for a 12th straight month, every sector finished higher – led by real estate stocks, China's trade surplus comes in below expectations as exports tumble, UK's GDP contracts less than expected plus a few Macquarie notes of interest.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 gaps up and finishes near session highs (Source: Market Index)

Markets

Are we off to the races after the cooler-than-expected US inflation print? The ASX 200 continued its V-shaped recovery on Thursday, up 3.5% in the last three sessions. The participation was broad-based, led by growth and cyclicals.

The recent underperformance of defensive sectors like Utilities, Telcos and Healthcare reminds of some recent commentary from BTIG – A global financial services firm – which cites "it's a double-edged sword when we start seeing some of the lower quality names rally ... especially relative to a defensive group like consumer staples, it often indicates a chase ... this often is the tail end of the move."

Now that we have the inflation print out of the way, it's onto the next catalyst – US earnings season – which kicks off this Friday. It's another low bar dynamic, where consensus expects earnings to fall 7.3% year-on-year in the second quarter before trending higher. This'll then lead into August reporting season, which UBS expects ASX 200 EPS to rise 3.0% year-on-year but fall 3.2% in FY24.

Economy

China’s trade surplus came in at US$70.6bn in June, up from US$65.8bn in May.

• Below market expectations of a rise to US$74.8bn

• Exports tumbled 8.3% while imports fell 2.6%

UK’s GDP contracted 0.1% month-on-month in May, from 0.2% in April.

• Beat market expectations of a 0.3% decline

• Production output fell 0.6% in May, while the services sector showed no growth

Latest news

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +13.1% Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ) – Guidance

• +11.1% Electro Optic Systems (EOS) – Continuation rally, up 22% in last three

• +5.8% Regis Healthcare (REG) – Aged care report

• +5.3% Viva Leisure (VVA) – Preliminary earnings

• +5.2% Netwealth (NWL) – Reports funds under administration

• +4.2% Vulcan Energy (VUL) – Land acquisition negotiations

• Copper sector move: Hot Chilli (+10.3%), 29Metals (+7.4%), Sandfire (+4.7%)

• Real Estate sector move: Lendlease (+4.8%), Goodman Group (+4.1%), Ingenia (+3.7%), Cromwell Property (+3.7%), Charter Hall (+3.6%)

• Gold sector move: Perseus (+8.1%), Evolution (+7.3%), Gold Road (+4.5%), Northern Star (+4.3%), Newcrest (+3.7%), Ramelius (+3.1%)

Trading lower

• -26.9% Atomo Diagnostics (AT1) – Placement 

• -8.7% Melbana Energy (MAY)

• -5.2% Global Lithium (GL1)

Broker notes

A few standalone Macquarie notes of interest:

ALS (ALQ)

• Rating: Outperform

• Target price: $13.20 ($10.89 as at 12 July)

• “ALQ’s AGM is Wed 26 July with 1H guidance range typically provided. We fct $163m 1H24 NPAT vs $164m pcp.”

• “ALQ is an attractive business with high margins and high returns. There are some short term headwinds but ALQ has good leverage to eventual sample flow recovery and attractive LT growth prospects in TIC space more generally driven by more testing, more compliance and more regulation.”

Incitec Pivot (IPL)

• Rating: Neutral

• Target price: $3.00 ($2.77 as at 11 Jul)

• “We lower our 2H23 DAP and ammonia price forecasts reflecting the recent downward fert price moves.”

• “Production volatility, higher gas sourcing costs and higher labour costs are crimping Phos Hill plant profitability.”

Patriot Battery Metals (PMT)

• Rating: Outperform

• Target price: $2.30 ($1.70 as at 11 Jul)

• “The results from the winter drill program at CV5 have been highly positive, with wide widths and strong grades announced.”

• “The size of the CV5 pegmatite has expanded to 3.7km and the key near- term catalyst remains the maiden resource to be released in the coming weeks.”

Scans