Evening Wrap: ASX 200 lower, Woolworths extends selloff, MinRes soars on $1.1bn gas deal

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 20 points lower, down 0.25% to 8,160 points.

Carl's away this afternoon so I'll be taking care of the Evening Wrap today – The local sharemarket fell for a second consecutive session, Woolworths shares hit a five-month low after yesterday's earnings downgrade, Australian September retail sales disappoint after a bumper August, JB Hi-Fi share soar in a better-than-expected trading update and MinRes crushes short sellers after announcing plans to divest its gas assets.

Let's dive in!

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 lower but off worst levels (Source: Market Index)

Markets

• ASX 200 finished lower but off session lows of -0.62%

• ASX 200 down for a second consecutive session to a three-week low

• Breadth was slightly negative, with 114 ASX 200 stocks lower (56%)

• Staples led to the downside, with Woolworths down 2.7%

• Woolworths now down 8.7% in the last two sessions, lowest since May 2024 after downgrading its 1H25 earnings outlook on Wednesday – the new EBIT guidance of $1.48-1.53bn represents a 5.6% year-on-year decline (at the midpoint) and 10.4% below consensus expectations, so quite a shocker

• Utilities suffered from a 6.0% dip in AGL shares – the company did not announce anything market sensitive but faced a downgrade from Barrenjoey (target price trimmed from $13.80 to $11.20) as well as a research report from the Australia Institute that found the company charging ordinary customers more than 3 times for gas than it charges businesses

• The resources sector suffered a broad-based pullback, with names like BHP (-1.1%), Rio Tinto (-1.0%) and Fortescue (-0.2%) all trading lower

• Tech stocks led to the upside, with notable gains from Macquarie Technology Group (+2.2%), Wisetech Global (+2.5%) and Nuix (+8.2%)

• The tech sector may be benefiting from robust earnings from megacap US tech stocks, notably Alphabet (Q3 earnings beat, underpinned by cloud strength and AI products), Meta (Q3 earnings beat, raises capex forecast) and Microsoft (1Q25 earnings beat, led by 33% Azure cloud growth but next Q guidance missed)

Economy

Today:

• AUS Retail Sales September +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m forecast and +0.7% August

• CHN Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) October

  • Manufacturing: 50.1 vs 50.5 forecast and 49.8 in September

  • Non Manufacturing: 50.2 vs 50.5 forecast and 50.0 in September

• JPN Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Rate & Monetary Policy Statement no change as forecast at <0.25%

Later this week:

Thursday:

• 23:30 USA Core PCE Price Index m/m September (+0.3% m/m and +2.8% p.a. forecast vs +0.1% m/m and +2.8% p.a. in August)

Friday:

• 12:45 CHN Caixin Manufacturing PMI October (49.7 forecast vs 49.3 in September)

• 00:30 USA Non Farm Payrolls September

  • Employment change: 111,000 forecast vs 254,000 in August

  • Average hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m forecast vs +0.4% m/m in August

  • Unemployment rate: 4.1% forecast, no change vs August

Saturday

• 01:00 USA ISM Manufacturing PMI September (47.5 forecast vs 47.2 in August)

Latest News

Interesting Movers

Trading higher

• +42.3% Talga Group (TLG) – Nunasvarra South permit update

• +18.5% Cokal (CKA) – Earnings

• +14.7% TerraCom (TER) – Production report, dividend announcement

• +9.2% Mineral Resources (MIN) – Production report, Hancock deal

• +5.5% Genetic Signatures (GSS) – Earnings

• +5.2% JB Hi-Fi (JBH) – Earnings

• +5.0% Paradigm Pharmaceuticals (PAR) – Earnings

• +4.8% Catapult Group (CAT) – Signs new deals

Trading lower

• -20.0% Poseidon Nickel (POS) – Earnings

• -12.6% Frontier Digital Ventures (FDV) – Trading update, strategic review

• -9.9% Mach7 Technologies (M7T) – Earnings

• -6.2% Nickel Industries (NIC) – Earnings (yesterday), Jefferies downgrade

• -2.7% Woolworths (WOW) – Extended selloff from trading update (yesterday)

• -1.3% Universal Group (UNI) – Trading update (yesterday)

Broker Notes

• Alpha HPA (A4N)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00

• Aeris Resources (AIS)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.34 from $0.27

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.27 from $0.25

• ALS (ALQ)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $15.00

• Ansell (ANN)

  • Initiated at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $38.00

• ANZ Group (ANZ)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $26.13 from $26.11

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.50

• Aspen Group (APZ)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.40

• Accent Group (AX1)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $2.57

• Bluebet (BBT)

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $0.33

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $0.38

• Champion Iron (CIA)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $7.20

• Capricorn Metals (CMM)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $7.00 from $7.10

• Coles Group (COL)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $21.00

• Coronado Global Resources (CRN)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.50 from $1.70

• Corporate Travel Management (CTD)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $13.50

• Cettire (CTT)

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.00

• Calix (CXL)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.55 from $1.90

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $2.00 from $3.00

• Deterra Royalties (DRR)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $4.70

• Data#3 (DTL)

  • Upgraded to overweight from neutral at Jarden; Price Target: $8.54

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $10.00

• Dexus (DXS)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $7.30

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $8.25

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $8.25

• EBR Systems (EBR)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $1.76

• Gold Road Resources (GOR)

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.40 from $2.10

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.10 from $2.00

  • Retained at buy at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $2.15 from $2.10

• JB HI-FI (JBH)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $85.00

• James Hardie Industries (JHX)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $50.90

• Liontown Resources (LTR)

  • Retained at buy at Argonaut Securities; Price Target: $1.30

  • Retained at buy at Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.50

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $0.85 from $0.95

  • Retained at neutral at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $0.95

  • Retained at underweight at Jarden; Price Target: $0.68 from $0.90

  • Retained at underperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.68 from $0.70

• Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $7.50 from $8.00

  • Downgraded to hold from buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $7.50 from $7.40

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $5.50

  • Retained at buy at Euroz Hartleys; Price Target: $8.50 from $7.30

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $7.30

  • Retained at underweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $5.00

  • Retained at underweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $5.15

  • Retained at accumulate at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $7.80

• Meeka Metals (MEK)

  • Retained at buy at Morgans; Price Target: $0.19

• Mineral Resources (MIN)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $50.00

• Metro Mining (MMI)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.14

• Nickel Industries (NIC)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $1.04 from $0.95

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $1.00

• Nufarm (NUF)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $3.65

• News Corporation (NWS)

  • Initiated at overweight at Jarden; Price Target: $45.80

• Nuix (NXL)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $7.20 from $5.20

• Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

  • Retained at hold at Bell Potter; Price Target: $2.95 from $3.00

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $3.90

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.90

  • Upgraded to outperform from hold at CLSA; Price Target: $3.20 from $2.90

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $2.70 from $2.85

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $3.00 from $3.05

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $3.00 from $2.95

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $3.25 from $3.30

  • Retained at outperform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $3.10 from $3.30

• Premier Investments (PMV)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $36.00

• Qantas Airways (QAN)

  • Retained at overweight at JP Morgan; Price Target: $8.50 from $7.10

• Ramelius Resources (RMS)

  • Retained at neutral at Macquarie; Price Target: $2.50 from $2.30

• Resolute Mining (RSG)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $0.95 from $0.82

• Sandfire Resources (SFR)

  • Retained at hold at Morgans; Price Target: $9.70 from $9.25

• Spark New Zealand (SPK)

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: NZ$4.34 from NZ$4.72

• Syrah Resources (SYR)

  • Retained at buy at Shaw and Partners; Price Target: $0.80

• Toubani Resources (TRE)

  • Retained at buy at Canaccord Genuity; Price Target: $1.25

• Universal Store (UNI)

  • Retained at buy at Citi; Price Target: $8.91 from $7.90

  • Retained at positive at E&P; Price Target: $8.36 from $8.86

  • Retained at buy at Jarden; Price Target: $8.97 from $7.88

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $8.40 from $7.80

  • Retained at add at Morgans; Price Target: $8.75 from $8.10

  • Retained at sector perform at RBC Capital Markets; Price Target: $6.50

  • Retained at buy at UBS; Price Target: $9.00 from $8.00

• Westpac Banking Corporation (WBC)

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $27.00

• Wesfarmers (WES)

  • Retained at sell at Citi; Price Target: $61.00

• Woolworths Group (WOW)

  • Downgraded to neutral from buy at Citi; Price Target: $34.00 from $38.56

  • Retained at buy at Goldman Sachs; Price Target: $36.20 from $38.90

  • Retained at hold at Jefferies; Price Target: $30.00 from $36.00

  • Retained at neutral at JP Morgan; Price Target: $31.70 from $35.50

  • Retained at outperform at Macquarie; Price Target: $32.50 from $37.00

  • Retained at overweight at Morgan Stanley; Price Target: $38.00

  • Retained at hold at Ord Minnett; Price Target: $32.00 from $35.00

  • Retained at neutral at UBS; Price Target: $31.25 from $33.00

• Zip Co. (ZIP)

  • Retained at neutral at Citi; Price Target: $2.90 from $3.15

Scans