Evening Wrap: ASX 200 goes out with a whisper but holds onto "important" weekly gain

It looked a great deal worse than it actually was, nine of eleven ASX sectors traded down today. But the damage was generally limited to fractions of a percent, and the S&P/ASX 200 closed well off its lows for the session. Energy and Property were the only two sectors in the green, while Tech and Consumer stocks gave back some of their recent gains.

Let's dive in.

Markets

ASX 200 Session Chart

Robust S&P/ASX 200 price action today (Source: Market Index)

The S&P/ASX200 (XJO) finished 14.1 points lower at 7,073.2, 0.45% from its session high and just 0.2% from its high. In the broader-based S&P/ASX 300 (XKO), advancers lagged decliners by 117 to 159.

The week started with a whimper, went out with a whisper, but did some important work in-between in building on November's rally. For the week, the XJO finished up 32.4 points or 0.46% higher.

ASX200 weekly chart

The weekly gain keeps the XJO just above the long term trend ribbon (orange), which appears to be holding after November's strong rally. The next hurdle is to close back above the short term trend ribbon (light pink) and the high of the weekly candle ending 17 November of 7,226. If that occurs, there's a good chance we can probe the top of the trading range between 7,400 and 7,600.

I finally get to say it, the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Sector (XEJ) was the best performing sector today. Um, well it was up 0.2% anyway. It was still down 2.3% on the week. Nonetheless, a commendable performance today considering the crude oil price was sharply lower on Thursday in New York.

Is the dreaded next leg down inevitable for WTI Crude?

We discussed earlier in the week, the importance of the US$80/barrel level for West Texas Intermediate Crude. After yesterday's OPEC+ meeting failed to deliver the big bazooka some oil bulls were hoping for, we've seen another clear rejection of the level in Thursday's black candle with upward pointing shadow.

This price action confirms the trend ribbons are rock-solid in their resistance of higher prices. The price may trade rangebound at best in the short term, but I suggest a close below the 16 November low of $72.37 could precipitate the dreaded "next leg down" for WTI.

Energy stocks were marginally higher today, led by uranium and coal plays

Economy

I covered the weaker than expected Chinese Manufacturing and Services PMI data in yesterday's Evening Wrap. Par for the course recently, after all the Chinese economy has been on a consistent but gradual track lower for many months.

The data was what us economists refer to as the official version of China's PMIs as it is compiled by China's National Bureau of Statistics ("NBS"). Usually, a few days later, comes the corresponding data from Caixin Global, which is a private news organisation.

Some economists prefer the Caixin survey as it's often considered as an unbiased reading of the Chinese economy (I am being very diplomatic here!). There was quite a surprise in markets today as the Caixin Manufacturing PMI blew past expectations, printing 50.2 November, up from October's 49.5, and above the 49.6 forecast by economists.

This shows the Chinese Manufacturing sector unexpectedly grew last month, and that's good news for countries like Australia who help supply it with raw materials.

What to watch out for...

We'll get a bunch of European manufacturing PMIs through the course of the evening, then at 2am AEDT USA manufacturing PMI data, and set your alarm clocks folks, because at 3am AEDT Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be giving a speech in Atlanta!

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +17.0% PYC Therapeutics (PYC) - No news since 30-Nov Response to Price Query

• +9.5% Bowen Coking Coal (BCB) - No news

• +8.6% Tuas (TUA) - AGM Presentation and Chairman's Address

• +6.7% Perenti (PRN) - No news

• +6.4% Pointerra (3PL) - No news since 28-Nov 2023 Chairman's Address and AGM Presentation

• +6.2% Paladin Energy (PDN) - Part of a rebound in uranium sector today after heavy losses during the week

• +6.0% Healius (HLS) - No news

• +5.4% Stanmore Resources (SMR) - Dividend Details

• +5.2% Mayne Pharma Group (MYX) - Update on US Department of Justice investigation

• +5.2% Cettire (CTT) - Change in substantial holding

• +4.7% Iress (IRE) - No news since 30-Nov Strategy Update Presentation

• +3.9% Catapult Group International (CAT) - No news

• +3.8% Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU) - No news

Trading lower

• -10.0% Renascor Resources (RNU) - Investor Presentation SA Exploration and Mining Conference

• -9.1% Imugene (IMU) - No news since 30-Nov AGM Presentation

• -8.2% Chalice Mining (CHN) - No news since 30-Nov High-Grade Copper-PGE Zones Extended at Gonneville

• -7.9% Syrah Resources (SYR) - No news, weaker graphite sector

• -6.8% Brainchip Holdings (BRN) - No news

• -6.7% Opthea (OPT) - No news since 30-Nov 2023 AGM Chairmans Address

• -6.5% Ioneer (INR) - Generally weaker lithium sector on continued sell off in minerals prices

• -6.1% Sayona Mining (SYA) - Generally weaker lithium sector on continued sell off in minerals prices

Broker notes

• 4DMEDICAL (4DX) retained at buy Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.10

• Ampol (ALD) retained at outperform Macquarie; Price Target: $38.00

• Accent Group (AX1) retained at neutral Citi; Price Target: $1.93

• Baby Bunting Group (BBN) retained at neutral Citi; Price Target: $2.00

• Beacon Lighting Group (BLX) retained at buy Citi; Price Target: $2.10

• CBA (CBA) downgraded to underperform from neutral at BofA; Price Target: $92.00 from $99.50

• City Chic Collective (CCX) retained at buy Citi; Price Target: $0.62

• Droneshield (DRO) retained at buy Bell Potter; Price Target: $0.50 from $0.45

• Endeavour Group (EDV) upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS; Price Target: $6.00 from $5.40

• Genusplus Group (GNP) retained at buy Bell Potter; Price Target: $1.40 from $1.33

• IRESS (IRE) upgraded to overweight from underweight at Wilsons; Price Target: $8.16 from $5.68

• Lovisa Holdings (LOV) retained at neutral Citi; Price Target: $19.70

• Macquarie Technology Group (MAQ) upgraded at neutral Macquarie; Price Target: $8.35 from $6.85

• Michael Hill International (MHJ) retained at neutral Citi; Price Target: $0.79

• Megaport (MP1) retained at buy Citi; Price Target: $12.25 from $12.50

• Nick Scali (NCK) retained at neutral Citi; Price Target: $11.57

• NRW Holdings (NWH) retained at buy UBS; Price Target: $3.15

• Temple & Webster Group (TPW) retained at hold Bell Potter; Price Target: $8.00 from $6.40

• Universal Store Holdings (UNI) retained at neutral Citi; Price Target: $3.70

• Viva Energy Group (VEA) retained at outperform Macquarie; Price Target: $3.50

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