Evening Wrap: ASX 200 gives back early strength, Woodside tumbles, Macquarie bullish on graphite

The local sharemarket eases from session highs of 0.49%, the Energy sector tanks after Woodside shares slide 3.4%, Defensive sectors outperform the market, Macquarie expects the graphite market to enter a deficit in 2025 and a closer look at a little data project about ASX 200 average daily performance and seasonality.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

A choppy session where the ASX 200 struggled to hold session highs (Source: Market Index)

Markets

Nothing really happened today. The ASX 200 was up 0.49% in early trade but spent the rest of the session drifting lower, closing towards session lows. The market remains in a volatile and skittish place, so let's see where the rest of the week takes us.

• Defensives like Utilities, Real Estate, Healthcare and Telcos led to the upside

• Energy fell an outsized -2.1%, weighed by Woodside (-3.4%)

Economy

No major economic announcements. It’s a relatively quiet week for economic data. Most of the important announcements will be made on Friday, including:

• China Manufacturing PMI

• Eurozone Inflation Rate

• US Core PCE Price Index

• US Personal Income/Spending 

Latest news

Market Insights

I'm working on a little data project. It's currently living in Excel and looks pretty ugly (it'll see better days). Here are some of my findings.

Data Room: ASX 200 performance and seasonality

The below table reflects the ASX 200's average daily performance referencing performance between June 1992 and March 2023.

Here's some interesting takeaways:

• Weakest day: September 12 (aka September 11 for the US)

• Weakest months: August (-0.04%), April (-0.02%), May (-0.02%)

• Strongest day: November 4

• Strongest months: December (+0.11%), July (+0.07%)

• Biggest win streak: December 15 to January 4 (19 days, up 4.25%)

• Biggest lose streak: September 1-6 (6 days, down -0.94%)

Source: Market Index

I've also got the ASX 200's seasonal performance, which uses the same data. Wednesday, 27 March corresponds with the 86th day of the year, so in the context of seasonality, the market is heading into a rather strong period.

Source: Market Index

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +14.2% Aeris Resources (AIS)

• +10.8% Alpha HPA (A4N)

• +4.8% Syrah Resources (SYR) - Macquarie initiates Outperform rating

• +4.0% FINEOS Corp (FCL) – FY24 cost reduction, expats FCF from 2H24

• +3.7% Zip (ZIP) – Continuation rally, up 11.5% in last three

• +3.1% Tyro (TYR) – Responds to media speculation, confirming no further proposal

Trading lower

• -13.5% Lake Resources (LKE) – Chairman discloses sale of 7.9m shares

• -10.2% Magnis Energy (MNS)

• -7.7% Weebit Nano (WBT)

• -6.5% Panoramic Resources (PAN) – Pullback after +15% in previous three

• Lithium sector move: Argosy (-7.0%), Vulcan Energy (-5.2%), Pilbara Minerals (-3.4%)

Broker updates

A few standalone Macquarie notes:

Capitol Health (CAJ): Outperform with $0.34 target price 

• “Medicare statistics were released for Feb-23. Overall, total diagnostic imaging (DI) volumes grew +7.8% vs pcp.”

• “Overall, Feb-23 Medicare data was strong, indicating a positive rebound in both volume and benefits growth for DI. In the near term, we continue to see a recovery in face-to-face GP consultations as a catalyst for improving imaging volumes.”

Monash IVF (MVF): Outperform with $1.30 target price 

• “MVF upgraded FY23 guidance by ~4.5%. We see 2H23 growth supported by specialist recruitment, the full benefit of ART associates acquisition, as well as incremental benefit from the PIVET acquisition.”

• “As such, we expect more significant market share gains in 2H23. We continue to see structural tailwinds for the IVF industry, with an increasing average maternal age, improved overall awareness, with additional funding available in NSW from Oct-22.”

Woodside (WDS): Neutral with $35.00 target price

• “Esso Australia (ExxonMobil) highlighted it would remove one gas train at Longford once the Snapper field reaches end of life in the next 12-24mths.”

• “We lower Woodside’s earnings outlook slightly to better reflect a more rapid decline in Bass Strait fields.” 

Scans