Evening Wrap: ASX 200 flat, Magellan rallies + Macquarie's take on recent results

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 2 points higher, up 0.03%. 

The Index finishes the week down 2.6%, Japan's core inflation cools, Magellan shares rally on better-than-expected cost outlook, multiple brokers downgrade Super Retail Group and Macquarie's take on a few recent reporters.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 flat in choppy trade (Source: Market Index)

Markets

Happy Friday! A bit of a short one today.

The ASX 200 finished around breakeven after chopping between +/-0.30%. Sectors were a little all over the place due to reporting season and analyst revisions. Goodman Group (+7.3%) lifted the Real Estate sector higher and Origin Energy (+1.9%) continued to push higher after yesterday's earnings. This was offset by broad-based weakness across the Discretionary sector as well as Telstra (-3.2%) dragging the Communications sector lower.

The market remains in a frail place (how wild to have gone from super bullish to bearish in a matter of two weeks). The key things to watch out for next week include China (and its many problems) as well as rising bond yields (the US 10-year Treasury is currently pushing 16 year highs). Can we find a short term bounce? Or does the market need to venture deeper into oversold territory to catch a bid?

Economy

Japan’s inflation was unchanged in July at 3.3%.

• Above analyst expectations of a fall to 2.5%

• Core inflation eased to 3.1% from 3.3% in June, in-line with consensus  

Latest news

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +13.3% Magellan Financial (MFG) – Earnings

• +11.2% Sezzle (SZL) – Nasdaq listing update

• +10.2% Abacus Group (ABG) – Earnings

• +8.6% PWR Holdings (PWH) – Earnings

• +7.3% Goodman Group (GMG) – Upgraded by CSLA

• +5.6% Amcor (AMC) – Earnings (Thu)

• +1.9% Origin Energy (ORG) – Earnings (Thu)

• +1.7% Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – Upgraded by multiple brokers

Trading lower

• -16.0% Imugene (IMU) – Placement

• -7.5% GWA Group (GWA) – Trading ex-dividend

• -6.9% Super Retail Group (SUL) – Downgraded by multiple brokers

• -5.9% Centuria Capital (CNI) – Earnings

• -4.0% Domain Group (DHG) – Downgraded by Macquarie

• -3.7% AMA Group (AMA) – Guidance

• -3.7% Centuria Office (COF) – Earnings (Thu)

• -3.2% Telstra (TLS) – Downgraded by Morgans

• -2.5% ASX (ASX) – Earnings (Thu)

Broker notes

Macquarie’s take on some recent results: 

Goodman Group (GMG) – Outperform with $23.53 ($20.88 at 17 Aug close)

• “GMG beat OEPS guidance again in FY23; FY24 OEPS guidance is below our expectations albeit we see upside risk throughout the year.”

• “Core business performing well, though in the long term there is upside via establishing a data centre platform and residential re-zoning.”

Inghams (ING) – Neutral with $3.30 target ($3.19 at 17 Aug close)

• “Poultry prices lifted 13% in Australia and 14% in NZ on average over the year, further scope for price increases over FY24.”

• “We increase our PT on the strong FY23 results. We are bullish on the group's medium term outlook. But strong stock price performance has lifted the share price into our neutral band.”

Origin Energy (ORG) – Outperform with $9.00 target ($8.51 at 17 Aug close)

• “ORG FY23 UNPAT at $747m +83% on pcp and +9% on MRE, +6% on consensus, driven by Octopus and EM. C/flow was soft as WC benefit unwound.”

• “Whilst an offer still needs to proceed through ACCC and FIRB, the faster-than-anticipated recovery of energy markets and the value emerging in Octopus does raise the sceptre there is upside for investors on the current price and reduces the downside risk if the offer was to stumble.”

Sonic Healthcare (SHL) – Neutral with $32.00 target ($32.03 at 17 Aug close)

• “FY23 EBITDA/NPAT was -4%/-3% vs MRE. FY24 guidance of A $1,700-1,800mn (CC) was below expectations; our revised forecasts imply A$1,756mn (CC).”

• “SHL has outlined several initiatives to support organic growth from FY24, with balance sheet capacity for further acquisitions.”

• “With more limited downside based on a SOTP valuation, we move to a Neutral rating (from Underperform).”

Super Retail Group (SUL) – Neutral with $12.76 ($13.72 at 17 Aug close)

• “SUL has grown earnings slightly ahead of forecast despite a soft macro.”

• “Slower consumer evident in early 1H24 trading, with flat group Lfls.”

• “Our caution remains underpinned by SUL needing to defend tough FY24 comps amid a weak consumer and cost inflation.” 

Telstra (TLS) – Outperform with $4.39 target ($4.13 at 17 Aug close)

• “FY23 EBITDA of $7,950m was better than our/market expectations and at the top end of company guidance. InfraCo monetisation deferred to medium term.”

• “We remain of the view that the market is not factoring mobile price increases beyond FY24. Further price increase announcements would be positive but the next leg up for the stock would be contracted annual increases.”

Scans