Evening Wrap: ASX 200 falls ahead of US inflation print + JPMorgan's CPI scenario analysis

The Index sold off ahead of another high-stakes US CPI print, headline inflation is forecast to reaccelerate while core inflation cools towards the 4.0% level, a small cap biotech stock falls 81% after a trial disaster and a few interesting data points on tonight's data.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 falls to finish near worst levels (Source: Market Index)

Markets

The ASX 200 finished lower and near worst levels on Wednesday. Selling was relatively broad-based outside of Utilities and Energy. Technology stocks led to the downside, with notable weakness large cap names like Wisetech (-2.1%), Xero (-2.4) and NextDC (-2.6%).

We have US inflation data due tonight, which might explain some of the risk-off attitude towards growth and yield-sensitive sectors like real estate. Inflation is at a rather interesting crossroad, which we'll talk more about below.

Economy

No major economic announcements.

Latest news

Market Insights

A trial disaster: Firebrick Pharma (ASX: FRE) released the results for a Phase 3 trial of Nasodine Nasal Spray as a treatment for the common cold. The results could not be more depressing:

"The analysis has shown that the trial did not meet its primary endpoint ... Based on the reported results, the placebo (sterile water) performed better than Nasodine," the company said in a statement.

"The Company is concerned that the results are so confounding, unexpected and at odds with previous data that there may be a systematic error or other issue in the data."

The stock finished the session down 81%.

US inflation: Headline prices are expected to reaccelerate (due to sticky services and higher energy prices) while core is expected to ease (led by the continued pullback in shelter and rent).

• Headline: Forecast to accelerate to 3.6% in August from 3.2% in July

• Headline: Forecast to rise 0.6% month-on-month in August from 0.2 % in July

• Core: Forecast to fall 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July

JPMorgan provides its CPI scenarios for tomorrow (which tend to be relatively inaccurate but insightful):

Source: JPMorgan

Of the last 10 inflation prints, six saw core month-on-month come in hotter than consensus, according to Fundstrat. But interestingly:

• 4 of 6 times equities gained in the following week

• 5 of 6 times equities gained on the day

"Bottom line: We worry of a 'hot' CPI but we think stocks likely power through that."

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +23.1% Starpharma (SPL) – Positive data from trial

• +7.4% Pact Group (PGH) – Takeover at 68 cents per share

• +3.6% Anson Resources (ASN) – Acquisition of land package

Trading lower

• -12.0% Nuix (NXL)

• -7.7% Renascor Resources (RNU)

• -7.6% IGO (IGO) – Ex-dividend

• -6.3% Cettire (CTT)

• Tech sector move: Macquarie Technology Group (-5.2%), NextDC (-2.2%), Xero (-1.9%), Siteminder (-1.9%), Dicker Data (-1.5%)

Broker notes

UBS notes of interest:

Brambles (BXB) – Buy with $16.95 target price ($15.09 at 11 Sep close)

• “CHEP saw soft volumes in FY23 (US down 5%, EMEA flat incl LFL down 3%) reflecting slowing consumption and early destocking impacts.”

• “We expect more destocking in FY24. While global FMCG supplier stocks remain elevated, we see this as less of a concern for CHEP given its relative downstream exposure (i.e. supplier->retailer trips).”

• “We think Brambles’ strength has mostly been earnings-driven, but the stock hasn't really re-rated yet. At ~18x PE, BXB still trades ~10% below ASX Industrials, yet its high FMCG mix, pricing power, double-digit EBIT growth, and FCF recovery warrant a premium, in our view.”

Incitec Pivot (IPL) – Buy with $3.50 target ($3.07 at 11 Sep close)

• “IPL has provided a trading update, noting its overall Group financial performance remains "broadly in line" with the outlook provided at the 1H23 result.”

• “Positively, IPL highlighted that the Dyno Nobel business is performing ahead of expectations, underpinned by strong AN demand/production, contract re-pricing benefits, and improved cost pass throughs.”

• “We retain our Buy rating on valuation grounds with the stock now trading at a FY24 FCF yield of 13% vs. 10 yr ave. c.8%.”

Sims (SGM) – Sell with $13.00 target, down from $14.00 ($13.79 at 11 Sep close)

• “SGM has noted that increased competition for scrap (combined with subdued inflow) has squeezed margins and will see 1QFY24 EBIT break even.”

• “While these prices have stabilised, we see limited likelihood of a recovery given softening end markets and increased pressure from billet imports. Maintain Sell.”

SSR Mining (SSR) – Buy with $26.60, down from $28.10 ($22.46 at 11 Sep close)

• “SSR remains one of our preferred gold picks for its free cashflow generation driven by modest growth capex and attractive margins vs peers.”

• “In a sign of its strength, it recently announced a new buy-back of up to 10.2m shares (5% of outstanding).”

Scans