Evening Wrap: ASX 200 bounces, first-home buyer lending falls to six-year low

The local sharemarket finishes the week down 0.3% from lows of -1.5% and new owner-occupier first home buyer loan commitments falls to levels not seen since February 2017. It's a bit of a post reporting season lull for newsflow but next week will see several catalysts including RBA's interest rate decision, Powell's speech and US unemployment data.

Let's dive in.

ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 rallied as the market opened and closed around session highs (Source: Market Index)

Markets

A strong finish to what has been a extremely volatile week. The dust is trying to settle but they'll be plenty of market-moving catalysts next week.

• Telcos rallied thanks to Telstra (+1.2%) which fell almost 3% on Wednesday after going ex-dividend for 8.5 cents per share

• Financials bounced but finish the week down -2.9% and around year-to-date lows

• Materials finished the week on a four day winning streak, up 7.4%

Economy

New loan commitments for housing in Australia fell -5.3% month-on-month and -35% year-on-year in January.

• External refinancing fell -2.1% month-on-month but remained close to record highs at $18.6bn

• Number of new owner-occupier first home buyer loan commitments fell to levels not seen since February 2017 

• “Anecdotal feedback from lenders suggested that reduced borrowing capacity due to rising interest rates further dampened overall demand for new housing loans in recent months.” - ABS Head of Finance and Wealth Statistics, Mish Tan

Portion of jobs in Australia that were vacant fell from 3.2% to 2.8% in the December quarter, according to the ABS.

• “A fall in the proportion of vacant jobs in the December quarter points to a slight easing in labour market pressures, from the peak in the September quarter.” - ABS Head of Labour Statistics, Bjorn Jarvis

• “While the proportion of vacant jobs was lower in December, this came off a record high in the previous quarter, following a year of increases.”

Latest news

Market Insights

Talking Technicals: Finding some support

The ASX 200 found some support along the trendline. It's still sitting on the wrong side of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which may call for some more choppy conditions.

Source: TradingView

Yields and the Fed

Something to be weary of as we head into next week.

JPMorgan: "With the 10Y yield sitting above 4%," we may see "additional selling in the Equity space but, ... many bond investors are sitting on the sidelines into next week’s NFP print so this move in bonds may not fully reflect the bond market’s fundamental view."

Goldman Sachs: “Our overall view is still more consistent with slow disinflation ... But there are clear risks of more hawkish news in the busy lead-up to the March FOMC, particularly if the data pushes the Fed to flag the option of a return to larger rate hikes more clearly.”

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

• +7.7% Incannex Healthcare (IHL) – Catalent to manufacture  psilocybin drug product 

• +7.5% MMA Offshore (MRM) – Contracts awarded

• +4.2% Infomedia (IFM) – Continuation rally, up 13% in last three

Trading lower 

• -8.6% Silex Systems (SLX)

• -6.1% Weebit Nano (WBT)

• -3.0% GQG Partners (GQG) – Completes investment in portfolio of Adani companies

• Rare earths sector move: Arafura (-10.6%), Dreadnought Resources (-3.7%), Hastings Tech (-5.9%)

Broker updates 

Post reporting season slump in broker notes. Here are a few from Macquarie:

Aurelia Metals (AMI): Outperform with $0.20 target price

• Aurelia received Development Consent from the NSW Department of Planning and Environment for Federation which is viewed as a ‘major derisking event’

• “It can now progress funding options which could include debt, equity and selling a minority stake in the project … AMI could be vulnerable to M&A with fully permitted, development ready and high grade base metals projects a rare breed.” 

Carnarvon Energy (CVN): Neutral with 16 cent target price

• Carnarvon sold 10% of its Bedout Basin interest to CPC Corporation for US$146 million

• The deal is viewed to help minimise the need for equity ahead of capex for Dorado and a four-well Bedout exploration campaign in 2024

Karoon Energy (KAR): Outperform with $3.00 target price

• Karoon confirmed a 9.2% oil export tax will be applied from 1 March to 30 June 2023 and it “quantifies the impact at US$22-35m”

• “Key uncertainty now is whether this 4-month period is followed by a more permanent oil export tax (or other reforms).”

• Patola start-up is set to boost production despite tax uncertainty and falling oil prices

Scans