Market Wraps

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 books 5-day winning streak + AGL rallies 50% in three months

Fri 16 Jun 23, 5:12pm (AEST)

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 76 points higher, up 1.06%. 

The ASX rallied on Friday, closed at best levels and close to a 1-month high, buying was broad-based with all sectors (except healthcare) trading at least 0.55% higher, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates at negative 0.1%, AGL expects FY24 profits to double.

Let's dive in.


Today in Review

Fri 16 Jun 23, 4:32pm (AEST)

Name Value % Chg
Major Indices
ASX 200 7,251.2 +1.06%
All Ords 7,451.2 +1.10%
Small Ords 2,842.5 +1.57%
All Tech 2,428.5 +1.86%
Emerging Companies 2,048.4 +1.16%
Currency
AUD/USD 0.6894 +0.15%
US Futures
S&P 500 4,427.25 +0.02%
Dow Jones 34,422.0 +0.01%
Nasdaq 15,191.75 +0.02%
Name Value % Chg
Sector
Energy 11,156.2 +3.52%
Information Technology 1,828.7 +1.50%
Consumer Discretionary 2,942.9 +1.22%
Utilities 8,771.0 +1.20%
Financials 6,166.9 +1.11%
Materials 18,559.2 +1.06%
Real Estate 3,050.8 +0.91%
Communication Services 1,551.1 +0.88%
Industrials 6,840.2 +0.84%
Consumer Staples 13,041.6 +0.55%
Health Care 41,369.4 -0.09%

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ASX 200 Session Chart

ASX 200 chart
ASX 200 rallies intraday and closes at best levels (Source: Market Index)

Markets

The market has been grinding higher in a rather unconvincing way in the past few sessions but things really started to turn up today thanks to a strong lead from Wall Street and firmer commodity prices. The ASX 200 is now on a five day winning streak, up 2.25%. The problem is that US markets are rather extended and indicators such as CNN's Fear & Greed Index are currently sitting at levels of 'Extreme Greed'. Let's see if we can see some follow through strength for local markets but if a pullback takes place - let's see if its the constructive kind of pullback.

Economy

The Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy, with short-term rates at -0.1% plus a 0% cap on its 10-year bond yield.


Latest news


Market Insights

Talking Technicals: ASX 200

The ASX 200 is rallying into a key downward trendline. So what will it be?

  • We break through and it becomes a lockout rally (aka it runs too hard and makes it difficult for investors to get in)

  • It breaks through but pulls back to re-test the trendline

  • It rejects the trendline but the pullback is shallow (3-5%)

  • It rejects the trendline and whips back to previous lows

XJO
ASX 200 daily chart (Source: TradingView)

AGL: Up 50% in three months

When AGL posted its half-year FY23 earnings on 9 February, the stock tumbled 10.8%. The result flagged a 55% decline in underlying NPAT to $87 million, which was materially below consensus forecasts.

While most brokers trimmed their share price targets, they remained bullish with the view that the stock is cheap and poised to deliver growth in FY24. Post half-year results, 50% of sell-side ratings (14 ratings) were Buy rated and the average target price was $8.11.

But it wasn't just brokers that were bullish. So were AGL directors. They went on a buying spree after the February results.


Date

Director

Type

Amount

Price

Value

Notes

05/05/23

Mark Twidell

Buy

+7,500

$8.85

$66,375

On-market trade

17/03/23

Kerry Schott

Buy

+14,500

$6.90

$100,050

On-market trade

22/02/23

John Pollaers

Buy

+10,000

$6.92

$69,193

On-market trade

15/02/23

Mark Bloom

Buy

+7,000

$7.00

$49,000

On-market trade

13/02/23

John Pollaers

Buy

+7,250

$6.87

$49,779

On-market trade

13/02/23

Christine Holman

Buy

+15,000

$7.00

$105,000

On-market trade

13/02/23

Damien Nicks

Buy

+27,000

$7.00

$189,000

On-market trade

13/02/23

Miles George

Buy

+9,900

$7.01

$69,369

On-market trade

13/02/23

Patricia McKenzie

Buy

+7,000

$7.00

$49,000

On-market trade

13/02/23

Vanessa (Fernandes) Sullivan

Buy

+5,000

$7.00

$35,000

On-market trade


Now here we are. AGL guided to FY23 profits of $255 million to $285 million (previous guidance was between $200 million and $280 million). As well as FY24 profit expectations of $580 million to $780 million thanks to sustained periods of higher wholesale electricity pricing and improved plant availability.

agl
AGL 12-month price chart (Source: Market Index)

Interesting news and movers

Trading higher

  • +25.0% Jervois (JRV) – $15m funding agreement from US DoD

  • +9.7% AGL Energy (AGL) – Guidance

  • +8.0% Kogan (KGN) 

  • +7.8% Reece Pharma (RCE) – 5m block trade at 53 cents pre-market

  • +6.7% De Grey Mining (DEG) – Responds to media reports re DFS

  • +4.8% Australian Unity Office (AOF) – Q4 dividend guidance

  • +2.6% Xero (XRO)

  • Gold sector move: Bellevue Gold (+7.8%), Gold Road (+4.2%), Northern Star (+3.8%), Evolution Mining (+2.1%)

  • Coal sector move: Whitehaven Coal (+8.3%), Stanmore (+7.8%), Terracom (+5.7%), Yancoal (+3.6%), Coronado (+3.5%)

  • Lithium sector move: Winsome (+14.8%), Leo Lithium (+9.4%), Patriot Battery Metals (+7.7%), Pilbara Minerals (+4.(%), Core Lithium (+4.0%)

Trading lower

  • -13.5% DGL (DGL) – Downgraded by Morgans

  • -9.1% Australian Ethical (AEF) – Pullback after up 19% in prev three

  • -2.8% Johns Lyng Group (JLG) – Downgraded at E&P


Broker notes

Broker notes are taking a break today.


Scans

Top Gainers

Code Company Last % Chg
GRE Greentech Metals Ltd $0.445 +34.85%
XAM Xanadu Mines Ltd $0.08 +33.33%
AUE Aurum Resources Ltd $0.155 +29.17%
NRX Noronex Ltd $0.023 +27.78%
AHC Austco Healthcare... $0.175 +25.00%
View all top gainers

Top Fallers

Code Company Last % Chg
C29 C29 Metals Ltd $0.105 -22.22%
G50 Gold 50 Ltd $0.14 -20.00%
RR1 Reach Resources Ltd $0.012 -20.00%
YOJ Yojee Ltd $0.017 -15.00%
MRC Mineral Commoditi... $0.051 -13.56%
View all top fallers

52 Week Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
GRE Greentech Metals Ltd $0.445 +34.85%
XAM Xanadu Mines Ltd $0.08 +33.33%
AHC Austco Healthcare... $0.175 +25.00%
NGX NGX Ltd $0.25 +25.00%
AZS AZURE Minerals Ltd $1.25 +21.36%
View all 52 week highs

52 Week Lows

Code Company Last % Chg
DGL DGL Group Ltd $0.83 -13.54%
H2G GREENHY2 Ltd $0.014 -12.50%
ROC Rocketboots Ltd $0.071 -12.35%
BYH Bryah Resources Ltd $0.016 -11.11%
CNQ Clean TEQ Water Ltd $0.235 -9.62%
View all 52 week lows

Near Highs

Code Company Last % Chg
IKO Ishares MSCI Sout... $98.91 -0.27%
WVOL Ishares Edge MSCI... $35.49 +0.25%
VLUE Vaneck MSCI Inter... $23.67 -0.42%
SEMI Global X Semicond... $11.60 -1.53%
OZR SPDR S&P/ASX 200 ... $14.50 +1.75%
View all near highs

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Oversold

Code Company Last % Chg
PMGOLD Gold Corporation $28.40 +0.21%
VAF Vanguard Australi... $44.50 +0.18%
DGL DGL Group Ltd $0.83 -13.54%
ETPMPM Global X Metal Se... $197.90 +0.43%
VGB Vanguard Australi... $45.65 +0.02%
View all RSI oversold

Written By

Kerry Sun

Content Strategist

Kerry holds a Bachelor of Commerce from Monash University. He is an avid swing trader, focused on technical set ups and breakouts. Outside of writing and trading, Kerry is a big UFC fan, loves poker and training Muay Thai. Connect via LinkedIn or email.

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