And just like that…quarterly reporting season for ASX listed resources companies is upon us! Between now and the end of the month, we are going to see a deluge of reports as companies aim to make the mandated 31 January deadline.
This quarterly reporting season is expected to be a particularly important and interesting one given volatility in commodities prices towards the end of 2024 (on the back of Chinese stimulus measures, then followed by concerns of the impacts of potential Trump tariffs) and a range of production issues encountered by several companies.
To help you navigate quarterly confession season, sorry, I mean reporting season – I have sifted through over a dozen separate research reports from the major brokers to dig out what they consider the key numbers to watch plus the key pressure points that might make or break market reaction.
We’ll do the following stocks in alphabetical order, but the scheduled reporting date for each is listed with its respective write up:
29METALS (ASX: 29M), BHP Group (ASX: BHP), Boss Energy (ASX: BOE), Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), Fortescue (ASX: FMG), IGO (ASX: IGO), Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU), Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR), Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC), Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN), Nickel Industries (ASX: NIC), Northern Star Resources (ASX: NST), Paladin Energy (ASX: PDN), Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS), Regis Resources (ASX: RRL), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO), South32 (ASX: S32), Sandfire Resources (ASX: SFR).
Morgan Stanley: “CY25 guidance expected to be provided”
Production / Profitability: Expects copper production of 4.9kt (+13% qoq) to beat consensus by 3%, gold production of 5.8koz (-5% qoq) to beat consensus by 3%, zinc production of 18.9kt (-1% qoq) to beat consensus by 3%, silver production of 227.4koz (+21% qoq) to be in line with consensus, and cash costs of US$1.11/b Cu sold (-44%) to beat consensus by 6%
Morgan Stanley Rating & TP: EQUAL-WEIGHT | $0.29
Macquarie: “to miss on copper and thermal coal”
Production / Profitability: Expects metallurgical coal production of 4.5mt (+2% qoq) to be in line with consensus, copper production of 462kt (-4% qoq) to miss consensus, thermal coal production of 2.9mt (-19% qoq), iron ore production of 72.6mt to be in line with consensus (with weak volumes during quarter due to wet weather)
Rating and TP: OUTPERFORM | $42.00
Morgan Stanley: “Copper South America production likely downside surprise”
Production / Profitability: Expects copper production of 487.5kt (+1% qoq) to beat consensus by 1%, iron ore production of 66.3mt (+3% qoq) to beat consensus by 2%, metallurgical coal production of 4.45mt (-1% qoq) to be in line with consensus, thermal coal production of 3.6mt (-2% qoq) to be in line with consensus, and nickel production of 5.4kt (-73% qoq) to be in line with consensus
Rating & TP: OVERWEIGHT | $48.50
UBS: “BHP continues to perform well after a strong Sep-Q and is on track for the top end of FY25 guidance”
Production / Profitability: Expects copper production of 483kt (+2% qoq) to be in line with consensus, iron ore production of 74mt (+3% qoq) to be in line with consensus, metallurgical coal production of 4.3mt (-2% qoq) to be 2% below consensus, thermal coal production of 4.1mt (+13% qoq) to be 13% above consensus
Pressure points: Copper is in focus given FY25 guidance for +4% volumes
Rating & TP: NEUTRAL | $42.00
Morgan Stanley: “Ramp up should be progressing”
Production / Profitability: Expects uranium production of 0.16Mlb at Honeymoon (+7% qoq) to be in line with consensus and 0.20Mlb at Alta Mesa (first quarter of production), C1 cost of $74.86/lb at Honeymoon to miss consensus by 20% and of A$75.80/lb at Alta Mesa
Rating & TP: EQUAL-WEIGHT | $2.70
UBS: “Cost/capex update forthcoming”
Production / Profitability: Expects FY25 uranium production of 790klb to miss consensus by 7% and C1 costs of A$52/lb (did not provide December quarter Expects)
Pressure points: Updated cost & capex guidance for FY25, update on commissioning of the third NIMCIX column, plus an update on timeline for remaining three columns
Rating & TP: EQUAL-WEIGHT | $2.70
Morgan Stanley: “Production and costs in line”
Production / Profitability: Expects gold production of 191koz (-1% qoq) to miss consensus by 2%, copper production of 19.5kt (+2% qoq) to beat consensus by 1% silver production of 210koz (-4% qoq) to miss consensus by 4%, C1 cost of A$923/lb (-24% qoq) to beat consensus by 1% and all in sustaining cost (“AISC”) A$1,547 (-7% qoq) to miss consensus by 2%
Rating & TP: EQUAL-WEIGHT | $4.95
RBC Capital Markets: “We expect a decent Q2 result”
Production / Profitability: Expects gold production of 194koz (flat qoq) to be in line with consensus; AISC A$1,654 (-1% qoq) to miss consensus by 8%
Pressure points: We see risks to cons costs and capex in FY25 and FY26
Rating & TP: UNDERPERFORM | $4.30
Macquarie: “in line with consensus”
Production / Profitability: Expects iron ore shipments of 50.5mt (+6% qoq) to beat consensus by 2% and average realised prices of US$89.5/t (+8% qoq) to be in line with consensus
Rating and TP: OUTPERFORM | $15.25
Morgan Stanley: “Price realisations & Iron Bridge ramp up likely upside surprise”
Production / Profitability: Expects iron ore production at hematite operations of 47.6mt (+2% qoq) to beat consensus by 1% and at Iron Bridge of 1.8mt (-29% qoq) to miss consensus by 16%, total direct costs at hematite operations of US$18.5/t (-8% qoq) to beat consensus by 2%
Rating & TP: EQUAL-WEIGHT | $18.50
UBS: “a clean result is likely to be taken well by the market”
Production / Profitability: Expects iron ore production of 49mt to be in line with consensus
Pressure points: Iron ore fundamentals will likely be the focus with realised pricing expected to be stronger as low-grade discounts have continued to tighten.
Rating & TP: SELL | $17.50
Macquarie: “to beat”
Production / Profitability: Expects spodumene production of 374kt to beat consensus by 6%, expects “weak” output from Nova and no output from Forrestania, nickel production of 3.5kt to miss consensus by 17%, and copper production of 1.7kt to miss consensus by 4%
Rating & TP: OUTPERFORM | $5.90
Morgan Stanley: “Greenbushes lithium production likely upside surprise”
Production / Profitability: Expects spodumene production of 366kt (-10% qoq) to beat consensus by 4%, realised price of US$743 (-12% qoq) to miss consensus by 5%, and cash costs of A$362 (+31% qoq) to miss consensus by 1%
Rating & TP: UNDERWEIGHT | $4.50
UBS: “comfortably on track”
Production / Profitability: Expects spodumene production of 366kt (-10% qoq) to beat consensus by 4%, realised price of US$743 (-12% qoq) to miss consensus by 5%, and cash costs of A$362 (+31% qoq) to miss consensus by 1%
Rating & TP: NEUTRAL | $5.45
Macquarie: “mixed”
Production / Profitability: Expects zircon production of 45.8kt (-23% quarter on quarter (“qoq”)) to miss consensus by 1%, rutile production of 11.3kt (-7% qoq) to miss consensus by 1%, synthetic rutile sales of 89kt (+350% qoq) to beat consensus by 27%, and ilmenite sales of 20kt (+4% qoq) to miss consensus by 45%
Pressure points: “On balance, we expect revenue to beat consensus by 15% but are cautious on inventory movements and price discounts.”
Rating & TP: OUTPERFORM | 7.10
Morgan Stanley: “Likely downside surprise”
Production / Profitability: Expects total zircon production (zircon and ZiC) of 55.5kt (-20% qoq) to beat consensus by 15%, rutile production of 10.7kt (+3% qoq) to beat consensus by 6%, total mineral sands production of 259.5kt (+5% qoq) to beat consensus by 27%
Pressure points: “We expect zircon markets could remain weak given limited China property-based stimulus announced so far”
Rating & TP: EQUAL-WEIGHT | $5.80
UBS: “cashflow and funding remain in focus”
Production / Profitability: Expects spodumene production of 69kt (+144% qoq) to beat consensus by 15%, realised price of US$700 (+1% qoq) to miss consensus by 1%, and AISC of A$1,117 (+18% qoq) to beat consensus by 16%
Rating & TP: SELL | $0.50
Macquarie: (PREVIEW) “to miss”
Production / Profitability: Expects NdPR production of 1,527 (-9% qoq) to miss consensus by 12%, and REO production of 2,897t (+6% qoq) to miss consensus by 6%; expects NdPR realised price of US$50/kg (+5% qoq) to beat consensus by 8%, revenue of $127 million (flat qoq) to miss consensus by 21%
Rating & TP: NEUTRAL | $7.30
Morgan Stanley: (PREVIEW) “Likely downside surprise”
Production / Profitability: Expects Gross Sales Revenue to miss consensus by 15%, but sales volumes to beat consensus by 2%, expects average realised price to miss consensus by18%
Pressure Points: Expects capex guidance for mt Weld to exceed current forecast of $570 million by $5 million; Guidance on resolution of permitting issues
Rating & TP: UNDER-WEIGHT | $5.70
Macquarie: “in line”
Production / Profitability: Expects total iron ore shipments of 7.05mt (+39% qoq) to be in line with consensus and total spodumene shipments of 147kt (-18% qoq) to be in line with consensus estimates
Rating & TP: NEUTRAL | $37.00
UBS: “a little complicated”
Production / Profitability: “We sit marginally below consensus on Mining Services and Iron Ore and mt Marion volumes, and see a possibility that some numbers are yet to reflect Bald Hill moving into care & maintenance”
Rating & TP: SELL | $34.00
Morgan Stanley “Price Realisations and Onslow production ramp up likely upside surprise”
Production / Profitability: Expects average realised iron ore price US$84/t (+2% qoq) to beat consensus by 6% (implies realisation of 82% of the 62% index versus consensus 75%); Pilbara and Yilgarn production down 6% and 31% respectively, to miss consensus by 1% and 7% respectively; Onslow production up 100% to be consensus by 7%; mt Marion spodumene production 120kt (-10% qoq) to beat consensus by 1%, Wodgina production up 4% to 1,051kt
Rating and TP: OVERWEIGHT | $52.50
Morgan Stanley “Group nickel sales in-line”
Production / Profitability: Expects total nickel production (incl nickel in matte) 38.2kt (+9% qoq) and sales 34.4kt (+10% qoq) to beat consensus by 3%, NPI production only 33.2kt (+8% qoq) to beat consensus by 1%; Operating costs supplied for each of the company’s rotary kiln-electric furnace projects, generally expected to fall between 1-8% and beat consensus by 4-8%.
Rating and TP: OVERWEIGHT | $1.05
Morgan Stanley: “Group gold production in-line”
Production / Profitability: Expects gold production 436koz (+17% qoq) to beat consensus by 1%, gold sales 436koz (+11% qoq) to beat consensus by 1%, AISC A$1,972/oz (-5% qoq) to miss consensus by 1%
Rating and TP: EQUAL-WEIGHT | $15.55
RBC Capital Markets: “slightly softer than consensus”
Production / Profitability: Expects gold production of 425koz (+14% qoq) to miss consensus by 1%, AISC A$2,059 (-1% qoq) to miss consensus by 3%
Pressure points: “Despite a 14% QoQ gold increase, NST could still track low vs guidance”
Rating & TP: SECTOR PERFORM | $19.50
UBS: “Focus on LHM after FCU approval”
Production / Profitability: Expects uranium production of 580klb (-9% qoq)
Pressure points: Ramp-up of LHM, water availability, and grade variability in stockpiled ore
Rating & TP: BUY | $9.90
Morgan Stanley: “focus on production and grade”
Production / Profitability: Expects uranium production of 650klb (+2% qoq) to miss consensus by 2%, C1 costs US$35.1/lb, capex US$10.2 million (-16% qoq) to beat consensus by 1%
Pressure points: Successfulness of plant maintenance at LHM, update on water storage management issues, production and grade, Environmental Impact Assessment for recently acquired Patterson Lake South project
Rating & TP: OVERWEWIGHT | $10.25
Macquarie: “to beat”
Production / Profitability: Expects spodumene production of 189kt (-14% qoq) and shipments of 190.5kt (-11% qoq) to both beat consensus by 4%, realised price of US$689 (+1% qoq) to beat consensus by 3%, and cash costs of US$389 (-4%) to beat consensus by 8%
Rating & TP: NEUTRAL | $3.25
UBS: “strong production”
Production / Profitability: Expects spodumene production of 194kt (-12% qoq) to beat consensus by 7%, realised price of US$641 (-6% qoq) to miss consensus (US$641/t) by 2%, and cash costs of A$609 (+1% qoq) to beat consensus (US$638/t) by 5%
Rating & TP: SELL | $2.40
Morgan Stanley: “production should be ramping”
Production / Profitability: Expects spodumene production of 185kt (-16% qoq) to beat consensus by 1%, realised price of US$708 (+4% qoq) to beat consensus (US$655/t) by 8%, and cash costs (ex-Royalties) of A$637 (+5% qoq) to beat consensus (US$643) by 1%
Rating & TP: OVERWEIGHT | $2.55
Morgan Stanley:
Production / Profitability: Expects gold production 101.3koz (+7% qoq) to beat consensus by 9%, AISC A$2,535/oz (+3% qoq) to be in line with consensus
Rating and TP: EQUAL-WEIGHT | $2.65
RBC Capital Markets: “substantial A$149m cash generation”
Production / Profitability: Expects gold production of 101kt (+7% qoq) to beat consensus by 7%, AISC A$2,414/oz (-3 qoq) to beat consensus by 5%
Pressure points: A march quarter “lull” could potentially occur, but company is on track for “mid-FY25 gold and cost guidance, with a ~20% FY25-27e FCF yield”
Rating & TP: OUTPERFORM | $4.00
Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) Reported Thursday, 16 Jan
UBS: (REVIEW) “A solid Dec-Q across RIO's key divisions”
Production / Profitability: Pilbara iron ore shipments were 86mt, just below guidance mid-point approximately 1% below UBS forecast and consensus estimates and unit costs are in upper half of $21.75-23.50/t guidance range; aluminum production was in line with consensus at 837kt and aluminum production was ahead of consensus at 2.0mt; copper production was 202kt – ahead consensus of 183kt
Pressure points: FY25 guidance was unchanged, Simandou is on schedule and budget with first production expected at the end of the year
Rating & TP: NEUTRAL | $124
Morgan Stanley (PREVIEW): “CY25 Iron Ore cost guidance likely downside surprise”
Production / Profitability: Expects mined copper production of 152.2kt (+1% qoq) to miss consensus by 7% and refined copper production of 58.1kt (+7% qoq) to beat consensus by 13%, iron ore (attributable) production of 74.7mt (+2% qoq) to miss consensus by 2%, aluminium production of 853kt (+5% qoq) to beat consensus by 3% and alumina production of 1.805mt (+2% qoq) to miss consensus by 2%)
Pressure Points: “We await IO cost guidance, with MSe at US$23.8/t higher than consensus at US$22.7/t”
Rating & TP: OVERWEIGHT | $136.50
Morgan Stanley: (PREVIEW)
Production / Profitability: Expects alumina production of 1,276kt (+8% qoq) to miss consensus by 2% and aluminum production of 300kt (+1% qoq) to miss consensus by 1%; manganese production of 700kwmt (+13% qoq) to beat consensus by 17%; nickel production of 9.3kt (+8% qoq) to beat consensus by 4%; copper production of 17kt (-3% qoq) to miss consensus by 2%); silver production of 3.4Moz (+78% qoq) to beat consensus by 12%, lead production of 29.1kt (+51%) to beat consensus by 9%; zinc production of 14.5kt (+20% qoq) to beat consensus by 10%
Pressure Points: “We await IO cost guidance, with MSe at US$23.8/t higher than consensus at US$22.7/t”
Rating & TP: OVERWEIGHT | $3.90
Morgan Stanley:
Production / Profitability: Expects copper production 27.2koz (+1% qoq) to be in line with consensus, C1 costs US$1.50/lb (-10% qoq) to miss consensus by 5%
Pressure points: Monitor for any further disruptions to alumina supply, which could lead to a shut-in at Mozal Aluminium
Rating and TP: UNDERWEIGHT | $9.00
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