ASX miners showcase resilience and growth plans at the Macquarie Conference

The 2025 Macquarie Australia Conference drew a record crowd of over 1,400 attendees to hear from 117 companies, including 22 miners, navigating a complex global landscape.

Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility, the focus shifted from last year’s regulatory hurdles to productivity and strategic growth.

Gold and rare earths stole the spotlight, fueled by geopolitical uncertainties, while lithium and bulk commodities like iron ore and coal faced tougher conditions. Here’s a breakdown of key takeaways from standout company presentations.

Gold: Building for the Future

Gold companies, riding high on record prices, focused on fortifying operations for potential price pullbacks.

"Most unhedged producers were happily so under a 'status quo' scenario ... Those that did have some hedges were also actively rolling off their hedge book by adding less future hedges than what has been recently delivered into," noted Macquarie analysts.

Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL) outlined a recalibrated strategy after operational hiccups, targeting 150,000 ounces in FY26 with a focus on higher-grade ore and improved geological confidence. A recent equity raise and hedge deferrals have strengthened its balance sheet, setting the stage for consistent cash flow.

Capricorn Metals (ASX: CMM) showcased its long-life assets, with Karlawinda and Mt Gibson boasting a combined 4 million ounces in reserves. A plant expansion at Karlawinda aims to lift production to 150,000 ounces annually, while Mt Gibson’s permitting progresses toward first gold in 2026. The company’s disciplined hedge close-out has yielded A$84 million in benefits since June 2023, boosting margins.

Newmont (ASX: NEM) detailed its post-Newcrest integration success, having divested six non-core assets. With 1.54 million ounces produced in Q1 2025, it’s on track for 5.6 million ounces this year, eyeing 6 million by 2028. Key milestones include Ahafo North’s ramp-up in 2025 and Boddington’s higher-grade ore access in 2026. A $3 billion share buyback program underscores confidence in free cash flow generation.

Newmont flexes its portfolio of tier 1 assets (Source: Newmont)

Rare Earths: A Geopolitical Hotspot

Rare earths drew intense interest as trade tensions between China and the US heightened their strategic importance.

Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC), a leader in the sector, highlighted its competitive edge in high-grade deposits and advanced processing. CEO Amanda Lacaze discussed the potential for a bifurcated market, with Western and Chinese supply chains diverging, though sustained price premiums depend on customer dynamics. Lynas projects 10-15% annual growth in NdPr demand for 2025, supported by its Mt Weld expansion and Kalgoorlie facility’s push to a 10.5 kt run rate by FY25’s end.

Lithium: Grit Through the Downturn

Lithium producers faced a somber mood, with prices near a perceived bottom.

Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) impressed with its Kathleen Valley project, achieving 95.7 kt of spodumene concentrate in Q3 FY25 at 64% recovery, surpassing expectations. The underground mine’s ramp-up is on track to hit 2.8 Mtpa by Q1 FY27, promising lower contamination and higher efficiency.

Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS), post its P1000 project, is optimising costs through ore-sorting upgrades and a shift to owner-operator models. With $1.1 billion in cash, it’s poised for a market rebound, which CEO Dale Henderson believes is imminent as major producers feel cash flow pressure.

Pilbara Minerals is focused on preserving its balance sheet and margins (Source: Pilbara Minerals)

Patriot Battery Metals (ASX: PMT) highlighted its Shaakichiuwaanaan project, bolstered by a $69 million Volkswagen investment and a 10-year offtake deal. Its high-grade 80.1 Mt resource and upcoming Q3 2025 feasibility study position it for low-cost production.

Base Metals: Mixed Signals

Base metals presented a varied outlook. Chalice Mining (ASX: CHN) focused on its Gonneville project, where metallurgical test-work boosted palladium and nickel recoveries by 4-7%. A potential iron by-product could further lower costs, with a pre-feasibility study now slated for Q4 2025. In nickel, Indonesia’s dominance loomed large, but demand from electric vehicles offered hope.

Bulks: Navigating Low Prices

Bulk commodity players like Fortescue (ASX: FMG) and Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) emphasised operational efficiency.

Fortescue reported solid shipments of 143 mt year-to-date, leveraging AI to optimise mining processes. Its Iron Bridge project faces technical challenges but is nearing resolution, while a green iron pilot plant at Christmas Creek aims to prove sustainable technology.

Its green everything at Fortescue's Christmas Creek (Source: Fortescue)

Whitehaven, transformed by its Queensland coal acquisitions, doubled its regional footprint and improved product quality. CEO Paul Flynn sees coal prices nearing a trough, with potential upside from Chinese stimulus, while a resumed share buyback reflects capital discipline.

Market Moves

During the conference week, gold equities surged 8.37% on average, with Bellevue (+12.8%) and Capricorn (+11.0%) leading. Lithium names like Liontown (+10%) also outperformed, while Lynas dipped 5.4%. Commodity prices moved modestly, with gold (+2.4%) and thermal coal (+1.9%) gaining, and spodumene (-2.8%) lagging.

Investor Takeaway

The Macquarie Conference highlighted the mining sector’s versatility, in a fragmented commodity market. Gold and rare earths offer near-term opportunities amid geopolitical flux, while lithium players are poised for a recovery. Investors should watch companies like Capricorn and Lynas for strategic growth and Liontown for operational execution, as the sector balances caution with optimism for a rebound.