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/ASX Broker Moves: Big upgrades for ANZ, Fortescue and WOW, big cuts to NAB, James Hardie and Pilbara Minerals
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/ASX Broker Moves: Big upgrades for ANZ, Fortescue and WOW, big cuts to NAB, James Hardie and Pilbara Minerals
Broker Watch
ASX Broker Moves: Big upgrades for ANZ, Fortescue and WOW, big cuts to NAB, James Hardie and Pilbara Minerals
Wed 26 Mar 25, 12:49pm (AEST)
Source: Shutterstock, Market Index
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Commodities in article
Key Points
- Upgrades: Catalyst Metals (CYL), Deterra Royalties (DRR), Fortescue (FMG), Helia (HLI), JB HI-FI (JBH), Judo Capital (JDO), Pro Medicus (PME), Ramelius (RMS), Smartpay (SMP), Woolworths (WOW).
- Downgrades: A2 Milk (A2M), Endeavour (EDV), Liontown Resources (LTR), National Australia Bank (NAB), New Hope Corporation (NHC), Premier Investments (PMV), South32 (S32).
- Target price biggest increases: ANZ Group (ANZ), QBE Insurance (QBE), Sandfire Resources (SFR), Catalyst Metals (CYL), EBR Systems (EBR), Gold Road Resources (GOR), Webjet (WJL).
- Target price biggest cuts: Core Lithium (CXO), Delta Lithium (DLI), Galan Lithium (GLN), IGO (IGO), James Hardie (JHX), Patriot Battery Metals (PMT), Pilbara Minerals (PLS).
Welcome to today’s ASX Broker Moves – your most comprehensive source for recent changes in major broker ratings and price targets for the Australian stock market.
The tables below contain data on ratings upgrades, downgrades, and initiations, as well as the biggest price target changes among the broker research reports we’ve received since the last update on Tuesday 18 March.
You will find the full list of broker moves in tonight's edition of our Evening Wrap.
Broker Views Snippets
UBS on Fortescue (ASX: FMG): UPGRADED TO NEUTRAL ⬆️ FROM SELL
“We have re-assessed the outlook for FMG after the stock traded through our former price target of A$17.30/sh. Concerns on the iron ore price outlook we believe are overdone thanks to our expectation for prices to hold US$90-100/t for the next five years. We also see concerns on low grade discounts as overdone.”
Target price cut to $16.70 ⬇️ from $17.30 (+3.8% upside)
Macquarie on Woolworths Group (ASX: WOW): UPGRADED TO OUTPERFORM ⬆️ FROM NEUTRAL
“Initially, we see potential for a re-rate as the market becomes comfortable with risks around the ACCC report and election cycle, noting that this may take time given the upcoming Federal Election...Thereafter, we see upside risk on an earnings recovery as the group reviews its segments and seeks to leverage its strong assets and scale.”
Target price retained at $30.80 ↔️ (+6.6% upside)
Bell Potter on Smartpay (ASX: SMP): UPGRADED TO BUY ⬆️ FROM HOLD
“We turn more positive given strategic interest from several parties and consensus earnings already revised down on softer revenue margins and higher costs related to strategic NZ investment. Given a successful start to piloting the new terminal and acquiring solution, we expect a greater level of strategic interest for the group as it applies to NZ expansion and transformation, with SMP well placed to deploy 4,000+ on hand units when this is operationalised.”
Target price raised to $1.33 ⬆️ from $0.68 (+68.4% upside)
Morgan Stanley on CSL (ASX: CSL): INITIATED AT OVERWEIGHT | TARGET PRICE $313 🆕
“A solid revenue growth outlook and margin recovery for CSL Behring underpin group EPS growth of ~13% p.a. over the next three years. The current 12-month forward PE is more than one standard deviation below the 10-year average, with the PE premium to the ASX200 Industrials at 10-year lows.”
21.9% upside to $313 target price
Ord Minnett on Clarity Pharmaceuticals (ASX: CU6): INITIATED AT BUY | TARGET PRICE $8.70 🆕
“Clarity's pipeline extends beyond prostate cancer to include neuroblastoma, neuroendocrine tumours, and HER2-positive breast cancer, indicating significant market potential. Upcoming trial results in 2025-2026 could boost the price target by 30%, with additional de-risking opportunities from trials in other cancer types. In summary, Clarity Pharmaceuticals is well-positioned for growth, with a robust pipeline, strong IP, and promising trial outcomes on the horizon.”
256% upside to $8.70 target price
Morgan Stanley on ANZ Group (ASX: ANZ): RAISES TARGET PRICE TO $29.30 ⬆️ FROM $27.20
“ANZ has a differentiated institutional bank, positive momentum in Australian mortgages, good cost discipline, a much improved risk profile, and a wider than usual discount to peers following its share price under-performance in 2024.”
Rating retained at EQUAL-WEIGHT ↔️ | 2.5% upside to $27.20 target price
Canaccord Genuity on ASX Lithium: Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) DOWNGRADED TO SELL ⬇️ FROM NEUTRAL & CUTS TARGET PRICE TO $0.65 ⬇️ FROM $0.70 | Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) CUTS TARGET PRICE TO $2.70 ⬇️ FROM $3.50
“Little relief from low prices in the near term…supply growth from new projects and ramp-ups more than offset production cuts, with our forecasts calling for continued market surpluses until 2028. Following the inclusion of our updated price deck and the model revisions…our developers/explorers’ price targets decrease -24% and our producers decrease -15%.”
LTR 4% upside to $0.65 target price and PLS (retained BUY) 47.1% upside to $2.70 target price
Rating UPGRADED
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Price Target | PT Upside% |
Alcidion Group (ALC) | Bell Potter | Buy | Hold | $0.11 | 31.0% |
Codan (CDA) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $17.00 | 5.5% |
Challenger (CGF) | Ord Minnett | Buy | Hold | $7.00 | 17.6% |
Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) | Jarden | Buy | Overweight | $3.10 | 17.4% |
Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY) | Morgans | Add | Hold | $2.95 | 11.7% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | Bell Potter | Buy | Hold | $5.50 | 12.0% |
Deterra Royalties (DRR) | Citi | Buy | Neutral | $4.50 | 22.3% |
Fortescue (FMG) | UBS | Neutral | Sell | $16.70 | 3.8% |
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH) | UBS | Buy | Neutral | NZ$37.30 | 12.8% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | Argonaut Securities | Buy | Hold | $3.05 | 9.3% |
Helia Group (HLI) | Macquarie | Neutral | Underperform | $3.55 | -3.0% |
JB HI-FI (JBH) | JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | $91.00 | -2.1% |
Judo Capital (JDO) | Morgans | Add | Hold | $2.08 | 15.6% |
James Hardie Industries (JHX) | Jarden | Overweight | Neutral | $45.00 | 18.5% |
James Hardie Industries (JHX) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal-Weight | $55.00 | 44.8% |
Nanosonics (NAN) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Hold | $5.74 | 22.4% |
National Storage Reit (NSR) | Moelis Australia | Buy | Hold | $2.37 | 7.2% |
National Storage Reit (NSR) | UBS | Buy | Neutral | $2.49 | 12.7% |
Pro Medicus (PME) | Morgans | Add | Hold | $250.00 | 8.7% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | UBS | Buy | Neutral | $24.00 | 15.6% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $2.50 | 16.3% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | Argonaut Securities | Buy | Hold | $3.00 | 39.5% |
Smartpay (SMP) | Bell Potter | Buy | Hold | $1.33 | 68.4% |
Webjet (WJL) | CLSA | Outperform | Hold | $1.00 | 88.7% |
Woolworths Group (WOW) | Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | $30.80 | 6.6% |
Biggest broker price target changes since last update. Price Target Upside/Downside (“PT Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on most recent session's close.
Rating DOWNGRADED
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Price Target | PT Upside% |
The A2 Milk Company (A2M) | Ord Minnett | Hold | Accumulate | $7.70 | -4.0% |
Capricorn Metals (CMM) | Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Buy | $8.70 | 6.2% |
Endeavour Group (EDV) | Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | $4.50 | 17.5% |
James Hardie Industries (JHX) | Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | $44.00 | 15.8% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | Canaccord Genuity | Sell | Hold | $0.65 | 4.0% |
Medical Developments International (MVP) | Bell Potter | Hold | Buy | $0.71 | 27.9% |
National Australia Bank (NAB) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | Overweight | $34.80 | 3.1% |
Nanosonics (NAN) | JP Morgan | Underweight | Neutral | $4.00 | -14.7% |
New Hope Corporation (NHC) | Citi | Neutral | Buy | $4.20 | 10.8% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | Buy | $23.60 | 13.7% |
South32 (S32) | UBS | Neutral | Buy | $3.70 | 5.4% |
Webjet (WJL) | Morgans | Hold | Add | $0.65 | 22.6% |
Biggest broker price target changes since last update. Price Target Upside/Downside (“PT Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on most recent session's close.
Rating INITIATED
Company | Broker | New Rating | Old Rating | Price Target | PT Upside% |
Apiam Animal Health (AHX) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy |
| $0.63 | 68.0% |
Ansell (ANN) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight |
| $37.20 | 9.4% |
Cuscal Group (CCL) | Bell Potter | Buy |
| $3.40 | 27.8% |
Cochlear (COH) | Morgan Stanley | Underweight |
| $267.00 | 0.2% |
CSL (CSL) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight |
| $313.00 | 21.9% |
Clarity Pharmaceuticals (CU6) | Ord Minnett | Buy |
| $8.70 | 256.6% |
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation (FPH) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight |
| NZ$36.30 | 9.8% |
Omega Oil & Gas (OMA) | Morgans | Buy |
| $0.64 | 45.5% |
Ramsay Health Care (RHC) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight |
| $36.10 | 7.9% |
Resmed Inc (RMD) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight |
| US$280.00 | 26.5% |
Sonic Healthcare (SHL) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight |
| $28.10 | 9.3% |
Turaco Gold (TCG) | Morgans | Buy |
| $1.05 | 208.8% |
Tesoro Gold (TSO) | Morgans | Buy |
| $0.11 | 254.8% |
Biggest broker price target changes since last update. Price Target Upside/Downside (“PT Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices on most recent session's close.
Price Target BIGGEST CHANGE
Company | Broker | Rating | New PT | Old PT | PT Change% | PT Upside% |
Smartpay (SMP) | Bell Potter | Buy | $1.33 | $0.68 | 95.6% | 68.4% |
Nanosonics (NAN) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $5.74 | $4.47 | 28.4% | 22.4% |
Catalyst Metals (CYL) | Bell Potter | Buy | $5.50 | $4.45 | 23.6% | 12.0% |
Nanosonics (NAN) | Morgans | Add | $5.50 | $4.50 | 22.2% | 17.3% |
Webjet (WJL) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $1.59 | $1.32 | 20.5% | 200.0% |
EBR Systems (EBR) | Bell Potter | Buy | $2.69 | $2.26 | 19.0% | 36.5% |
Generation Development Group (GDG) | Morgans | Add | $5.59 | $4.75 | 17.7% | 11.1% |
Findi (FND) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $11.05 | $9.48 | 16.6% | 156.4% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | Argonaut Securities | Buy | $3.00 | $2.60 | 15.4% | 39.5% |
Nufarm (NUF) | Bell Potter | Buy | $4.75 | $4.35 | 9.2% | 22.1% |
Ramelius Resources (RMS) | Macquarie | Outperform | $2.50 | $2.30 | 8.7% | 16.3% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | Bell Potter | Buy | $3.20 | $2.95 | 8.5% | 14.7% |
ANZ Group (ANZ) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | $29.30 | $27.20 | 7.7% | 2.5% |
QBE Insurance Group (QBE) | CLSA | Outperform | $25.00 | $23.30 | 7.3% | 14.3% |
Sandfire Resources (SFR) | Morgans | Hold | $11.80 | $11.00 | 7.3% | 3.1% |
AIC Mines (A1M) | Bell Potter | Buy | $0.66 | $0.62 | 6.5% | 67.1% |
Navigator Global Investments (NGI) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $2.50 | $2.35 | 6.4% | 38.1% |
Brickworks (BKW) | Morgans | Hold | $26.50 | $25.00 | 6.0% | 10.0% |
Challenger (CGF) | Ord Minnett | Buy | $7.00 | $6.65 | 5.3% | 17.6% |
Gold Road Resources (GOR) | Argonaut Securities | Buy | $3.05 | $2.90 | 5.2% | 9.3% |
Deep Yellow (DYL) | Macquarie | Outperform | $1.90 | $2.00 | -5.0% | 71.2% |
REA Group (REA) | Bell Potter | Buy | $264.00 | $281.00 | -6.0% | 13.5% |
Mineral Resources (MIN) | Citi | Neutral | $28.00 | $30.00 | -6.7% | 16.3% |
National Australia Bank (NAB) | Morgan Stanley | Equal-Weight | $34.80 | $37.40 | -7.0% | 3.1% |
Liontown Resources (LTR) | Canaccord Genuity | Sell | $0.65 | $0.70 | -7.1% | 4.0% |
Ioneer (INR) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $0.25 | $0.27 | -7.4% | 66.7% |
South32 (S32) | UBS | Neutral | $3.70 | $4.00 | -7.5% | 5.4% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $29.50 | $32.00 | -7.8% | 42.1% |
Stanmore Resources (SMR) | Citi | Buy | $3.10 | $3.40 | -8.8% | 41.6% |
Iluka Resources (ILU) | Citi | Neutral | $5.10 | $5.60 | -8.9% | 20.3% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | Jarden | Neutral | $21.70 | $23.90 | -9.2% | 4.5% |
Myer (MYR) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | $0.86 | $0.95 | -9.5% | 26.5% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | Ord Minnett | Accumulate | $23.60 | $26.15 | -9.8% | 13.7% |
James Hardie Industries (JHX) | Morgans | Add | $54.00 | $60.00 | -10.0% | 42.1% |
DGL Group (DGL) | UBS | Neutral | $0.53 | $0.59 | -10.2% | 7.1% |
Micro-X (MX1) | Morgans | Buy | $0.17 | $0.19 | -10.5% | 174.2% |
Macquarie Group (MQG) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $224.00 | $253.00 | -11.5% | 9.4% |
Whitehaven Coal (WHC) | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $8.05 | $9.10 | -11.5% | 48.5% |
Endeavour Group (EDV) | Goldman Sachs | Neutral | $4.50 | $5.10 | -11.8% | 17.5% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | Bell Potter | Buy | $30.00 | $34.00 | -11.8% | 44.5% |
Fortescue (FMG) | Citi | Neutral | $17.50 | $20.00 | -12.5% | 8.8% |
Vulcan Energy Resources (VUL) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $10.00 | $11.75 | -14.9% | 110.5% |
Helia Group (HLI) | Macquarie | Neutral | $3.55 | $4.20 | -15.5% | -3.0% |
James Hardie Industries (JHX) | Jarden | Overweight | $45.00 | $53.50 | -15.9% | 18.5% |
Wildcat Resources (WC8) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $0.50 | $0.60 | -16.7% | 194.1% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | UBS | Buy | $24.00 | $30.00 | -20.0% | 15.6% |
IGO (IGO) | Canaccord Genuity | Sell | $3.50 | $4.40 | -20.5% | -15.3% |
New Hope Corporation (NHC) | Citi | Neutral | $4.20 | $5.30 | -20.8% | 10.8% |
James Hardie Industries (JHX) | JP Morgan | Overweight | $45.50 | $58.50 | -22.2% | 19.8% |
Lotus Resources (LOT) | Bell Potter | Buy | $0.35 | $0.45 | -22.2% | 89.2% |
Pilbara Minerals (PLS) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $2.70 | $3.50 | -22.9% | 47.1% |
Premier Investments (PMV) | JP Morgan | Overweight | $24.80 | $32.90 | -24.6% | 19.5% |
Helia Group (HLI) | Goldman Sachs | Neutral | $3.70 | $4.99 | -25.9% | 1.1% |
Core Lithium (CXO) | Canaccord Genuity | Hold | $0.08 | $0.11 | -27.3% | 5.3% |
Delta Lithium (DLI) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $0.35 | $0.50 | -30.0% | 105.9% |
Winsome Resources (WR1) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $1.20 | $1.75 | -31.4% | 336.4% |
James Hardie Industries (JHX) | Macquarie | Neutral | $44.00 | $65.00 | -32.3% | 15.8% |
Webjet (WJL) | Morgans | Hold | $0.65 | $1.05 | -38.1% | 22.6% |
Patriot Battery Metals (PMT) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $0.55 | $0.90 | -38.9% | 77.4% |
Medical Developments International (MVP) | Bell Potter | Hold | $0.71 | $1.60 | -55.6% | 27.9% |
Betmakers Technology Group (BET) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $0.20 | $0.75 | -73.3% | 102.0% |
Galan Lithium (GLN) | Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $0.18 | $0.75 | -76.0% | 56.5% |
Biggest broker price target changes greater than +5% / -5% since last update. Price Target Upside/Downside (“PT Upside%”) values in the last column are based on closing prices as on most recent session's close.
How to read broker recommendations 🔎
Typically, there are two major components of a broker’s view:
Rating: A call to action, usually along the lines of buy, hold, or sell, but depending on the broker’s ratings system, can be somewhere in between (e.g., accumulate or add is typically between a hold and a buy).
Price target (PT): The price at which the broker expects the stock will be trading at some point in the future, generally within the next 12 months.
Carl has over 30-year's investing experience, helping investors navigate several bull and bear markets over this time. He is a well respected markets commentator who specialises in how the global macro impacts Australian and US equities. Carl has a passion for technical analysis and has taught his unique brand of price-action trend following to thousands of Aussie investors.
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