ASX 200 Live Today - Wednesday, 5th August

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Wednesday, August 5. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Reporting season is heating up and we've got you covered. Our reporting season calendar has over 250 stocks plus earnings and dividend estimates.

Monadelphous wins $200m BHP port contract

[9:32 am] Monadelphous has secured a major construction contract with BHP at its Nelson Point port facility in Port Hedland.

• Contract valued at around $200m for the Port Debottlenecking Project 2 (PDP2)

• Covers structural, mechanical, piping, electrical and instrumentation work for the new Car Dumper 6 and supporting materials handling facilities

• Work commences immediately with completion expected in 2028

Company page: Monadelphous Group (MND)

Endeavour flags in-line FY26 guidance and $372m of write-downs

[9:28 am] Endeavour Group pre-released FY26 guidance broadly in line with ests, alongside a large slate of mostly non-cash significant items from its strategy review.

• Total group sales up 1.3% to $12.21bn vs $12.19bn ests (in line)

• Underlying EBIT down 8.7% to $845m vs $847.0m ests (in line)

• Underlying NPAT down 14.7% to $363m vs $366.3m ests (1% miss)

• $372m of pre-tax significant item expenses ($311m after-tax), predominantly non-cash

• Write-downs span Pinnacle wineries and vineyards ($78m), 25 hotels ($67m) and 75 retail stores ($45m)

• A $40m provision recognised on cessation of the Woolworths MLDC supply chain contract in September 2028

Endeavour shares are down 5.4% year-to-date and down 13.8% in the last twelve months, though up around 21% since its 2 June all-time low.

Company page: Endeavour Group (EDV)

Light & Wonder Q2 EBITDA beats, tracking ahead of UBS forecasts

[9:19 am] Light & Wonder posted 9% adjusted EBITDA growth with margin expansion across all three segments, coming in above both consensus and UBS's forecast.

• Revenue up 2% to $828m vs $842.4m ests (2% miss)

• Consolidated AEBITDA up 9% to $383m vs $366.2m ests (5% beat) and 2% ahead of UBS ests of $375m

• EPS of $1.53 vs $1.23 ests (24% beat)

• Adjusted free cash flow up 50% to $156m vs $110.1m ests (42% beat)

• Gaming operations revenue up 18% to $247m, with the premium installed base extending growth to a 24th straight quarter

• iGaming revenue up 14% and AEBITDA up 18% despite UK tax increases

UBS flagged that FY26 guidance for mid-to-high single digit AEBITDA growth was reiterated in mid-July, and the ~8% share price reaction that day showed the market's earnings-risk sensitivity. The Q2 result leaves the company well placed against UBS's full-year estimate, which is looking for 6% growth over the remainder of 2026. UBS reiterated a Buy rating on 28 July, calling LNW the strongest shareholder return in its gaming coverage and flagging its ~60% PE discount to Aristocrat.

Company page: Light & Wonder (LNW)

Credit Corp FY26 call: US recovery and a UK runway

[9:12 am] Here are the key themes and takeaways from CEO Thomas Beregi on the FY26 results call.

The result was announced on Tuesday. Credit Corp shares tanked (6.9%) despite rallying ~5% in early trade, the FY26 result was relatively in-line with expectations, though FY27 US purchasing guidance was very soft.

• On US collections: "we're not seeing degradation in any of those underlying metrics" with delinquency and repayment conversion "relatively static and have been static since that experience in 2023"

• On the US consumer: "the consumer in the US still seems to be hanging in there" and "still reasonably positive about their prospects to maintain their employment"

• On US purchasing competition: "we've seen recently a couple of large retendering processes where we were outbid, and we couldn't see a way for us to bid the winning prices and still deliver returns"

• On Wizard growth: it "accounted for 17% of our new customer volume as a new product in the year just gone" with plans to "close to double it over the year ahead"

• On the UK opportunity: "a market more than 5 times the size of Australia and no real dominant competitor in that market and an underserved situation"

• On the outlook: "all segments of the business produced growth, and it's been about five years since we've seen a result like that"

Company page: Credit Corp Group (CCP)

Experience Co Q4 EBITDA slips on weather and fuel costs

[9:01 am] Experience Co posted flat Q4 revenue but a sharp drop in underlying EBITDA as weather, fuel and cost pressures weighed.

• Revenue up 1% to $29.4m from $29.2m

• Underlying EBITDA down 31% to $2.0m

• Adventure experiences up 5% to $15.2m, offsetting skydiving down 3% to $14.2m

• Fuel costs rose to ~6.5% of Group revenue from ~4% before the Middle East conflict

• Softer April on weather impacts, with May and June broadly in line with pcp

• All business units except Skydive Australia grew revenue across FY26

Company page: Experience Co (EXP)

Pinnacle FY26 underlying NPAT up 21%

[8:54 am] Pinnacle delivered strong FUM and net inflow growth in FY26, though underlying earnings came in below consensus.

• Underlying NPAT up 21% to $138.0m vs $148.0m ests (7% miss)

• Statutory NPAT up 31% to $176.7m, boosted by a one-off gain on the PAM acquisition

• Underlying diluted EPS up 15% to 61.0 cents

• FUM up 28% to $229.4bn, with net inflows of $33.4bn ($16.3bn in 2H)

• Performance fees contributed $35.6m post-tax, down from $46.6m in FY25

• Final DPS of 31.0 cents franked to 65%, taking full-year dividends to 60.0 cents, flat on FY25

The full-year dividend is relatively in-line with consensus. Net inflows for the second half of $16.3bn tracking ahead of Macquarie ($14.2bn or 15% beat) and Morgans ($15.2bn or 7% beat). Performance fees also tracking above consensus of $30m (or a ~18% beat).

Company page: Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

Australian household spending beats in June as EV sales jump

[8:49 am] We missed this data point yesterday, where Aussie household spending rose 0.8% in June, well ahead of the 0.2% consensus, as strong vehicle and travel spending pointed to resilient demand despite higher rates.

• Household spending up 0.8% to $81.3bn in June vs 0.2% ests

• Follows a 1.2% rise in May and a 1.0% fall in April

• Annual spending growth accelerated to 6%, a three-month high

• Transport led the gains with new vehicle sales up 3.0%, EVs taking a growing share as households respond to high petrol prices

• Air travel spending returned to pre-conflict levels while fuel volumes rose 7.8% on a 10.9% drop in prices

• June quarter spending volumes rose 0.7%, up 2.4% year-on-year, a third straight quarterly gain

Source: ABS

Oil slides below US$80 as Hormuz deal hopes build

[8:44 am] Brent tumbled for a second straight day as Qatar, Bessent and Rubio all signalled a short-term US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be imminent.

• Brent fell 6% to US$78.67 a barrel, below US$80 for the first time in over three weeks as deal optimism grew

• Bessent told CNBC a deal to open the strait could come "today or tomorrow", with freedom of movement and no toll

• Qatar said a de-escalation proposal has been drafted and is circulating between the parties, with Rubio also upbeat

• Iran is privately weighing letting European nations clear mines from the strait, a climbdown from its public stance

• Trump gave Iran a "last chance" to agree, threatening renewed airstrikes after calling off major attacks over the weekend

Korea's leveraged ETF frenzy cools sharply under new curbs

[8:43 am] Trading in leveraged single-stock ETFs tied to Korea's chip giants has slumped after regulators moved to rein in speculative retail demand.

• Kodex SK Hynix single-stock ETF, the country's largest, saw volume fall to 59m shares Monday, the lowest since 4 June

• The Samsung Electronics-linked peer had its quietest session since launching in late May

• From 31 July, the minimum cash deposit for leveraged ETF trading was lifted to 30m won ($21,065) from 10m won, with new single-stock listings temporarily suspended

• Margin loan balances fell to 28.9 trillion won as of 31 July, the lowest since January

• The Kospi remains up around 48% this year but volatility stays elevated, with trading halted four times in July

Source: Bloomberg

Booking beats on resilient travel demand

[8:42 am] Booking Holdings posted a Q2 beat across revenue, earnings and margins as travel demand held up despite macro uncertainty.

• Revenue up 8% to $7.4bn vs $7.19bn ests (3% beat)

• Adj EPS up 15% to $2.54 vs $2.45 ests (4% beat)

• Net income up 118% to $2.0bn vs $1.89bn ests (6% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA up 9% to $2.6bn vs $2.56bn ests (2% beat)

• Gross bookings up 9% to $51.0bn and room nights up 5% to 325m

• Free cash flow up 16% to $3.6bn vs $2.93bn ests (23% beat)

AMD smashes Q2 with data centre revenue more than doubling

[8:41 am] AMD delivered record revenue and profitability as data centre sales surged, with a Q3 guide well ahead of ests. The stock is still down ~9% after hours despite the clean beat.

• Revenue up 50% to $11.5bn vs $11.28bn ests (2% beat)

• Adj EPS up 246% to $1.66 vs $1.62 ests (2% beat)

• Data Center revenue up 107% to $6.72bn

• Non-GAAP net income up 253% to $2.76bn vs $2.64bn ests (5% beat)

• Adjusted EBITDA of $3.3bn vs $3.37bn ests (2% miss)

• Q3 revenue guide of ~$13.0bn vs $12.5bn ests (4% beat)

SpaceX Q2 revenue jumps 92% with EBITDA nearly tripling

[8:40 am] SpaceX posted a strong Q2 as connectivity and AI segments drove a big beat on revenue and profitability, alongside a narrower-than-expected loss. The stock is down ~6.0% after hours.

• Revenue up 92% to $7.8bn vs $6.93bn ests (13% beat)

• EPS of -$0.09 vs -$0.26 ests (loss narrower than expected)

• EBITDA up 191% to $3.5bn vs $2.03bn ests (72% beat)

• Net income of -$541m vs -$1.94bn ests (loss well narrower than expected)

• Connectivity revenue up 66% to $4.3bn and AI revenue up 247% to $2.6bn

• Starlink subscribers doubled to 12.0m though ARPU fell 22% to $66/mo

Caterpillar hits record quarter with revenue topping $20bn

[8:39 am] Caterpillar delivered its first-ever $20bn+ sales quarter, comfortably beating on revenue and earnings as all three primary segments grew. The stock rallied 5.6% overnight.

• Revenue up 24% to $20.54bn vs $19.3bn ests (6% beat)

• Adj EPS up 73% to $8.17 vs $6.20 ests (32% beat)

• Operating profit up 50% to $4.3bn vs $3.6bn ests (19% beat)

• Adj operating margin up 430bps to 21.9%

• Construction Industries up 35% to $8.35bn and Resource Industries up 20% to $4.65bn

• Enterprise operating cash flow of $4.4bn, with $1.5bn buybacks and $0.7bn dividends

• Management flagged strong order rates and a growing backlog across all three primary segments. Power & Energy rose 17% to $8.24bn and Financial Products rose 10% to $1.15bn.

Goldman's Callahan flags a V-shaped snapback in tech

[8:38 am] Goldman's Peter Callahan says the Nasdaq 100 has staged a sharp recovery, rebounding above a key technical level in just four sessions.

• NDX up around 945bps in four sessions since last Thursday, punching back above its 50-day moving average

• The four-day move ranks alongside how tech traded around major events over the past 20 years including the GFC, COVID, the 2022 hiking cycle and Liberation Day

• Cleaner positioning and improved technicals behind the bounce, helped by a momentum factor rebound and reduced leveraged ETF footprints

• Stronger fundamentals and visibility, including improved ROIC sentiment after last week's earnings

• Investor questions centre on whether it is a squeezy or hated rally, signs of re-risking, and semis versus hyperscalers

Citadel Securities says bull market drivers remain "firmly intact"

[8:35 am] Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner argues the forces behind US stocks' record highs are still in place after a reset in retail speculation.

"July did not change the structural bull market. It reset it," Rubner said, adding investors can now focus more on company fundamentals than positioning.

• Markets are shifting from a flow-driven backdrop back to one led by earnings, corporate demand and macro, per Rubner

• Retail investors posted their biggest week of stock selling since 2022, concentrated in tech names

• Leveraged ETF assets fell 28% to $154bn as the retail retreat unwound speculative "excesses"

• Equity financing costs have dropped, signalling less pressure on trading desks and softer demand for leverage

• Earnings continue to surprise to the upside while valuations have grown more attractive

• Corporate buyback demand is set to accelerate as earnings blackout windows expire

Good morning!

[8:27 am] ASX 200 futures are up 41 pts (+0.45%). The overnight session in a nutshell:

• S&P 500 logged its first record close in two months and the Dow cleared 54,000 for the first time, a fourth straight advance led by chips and AI infrastructure

  • S&P 500 (+1.79%), Dow (+1.71%), Nasdaq (+2.59%) and Russell 2000 (+1.85%)

• Brent fell ~6% to US$78.67 after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a Strait of Hormuz deal could land within a day, unwinding July's war premium

• Strong session for commodities, with copper (+1.2%) trading within 0.4% of all-time highs, while rare earths, uranium, silver and nickel equities rallied 3-5%

• Earnings carried the tape, with Palantir, Caterpillar and Wayfair all beating and lifting guidance, though AMD and SpaceX both sold off after the bell