ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 30th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, July 30. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Perseus Mining misses on Q4 output and costs as AISC runs above estimates

[9:26 am] Perseus produced 109koz of gold in the June quarter at a higher-than-expected cost, though strong pricing lifted cash margins and its balance sheet.

• Gold production of 109.0koz vs 111.4koz ests (2% miss), with Yaoure 38.9koz, Edikan 41.9koz and Sissingue 28.1koz

• AISC of US$1,941/oz vs US$1,794/oz ests (8% higher)

• Gold sales of 114.6koz, up from 96.3koz the prior quarter, at an average sales price of US$4,086/oz

• Notional operating cashflow of US$216m, down from US$252m the prior quarter, with a record US$769m for FY26

• Cash and bullion of US$1.03bn, plus listed securities of US$233m, with the share buyback increased to $150m

• FY27 guidance of 420koz-480koz production at AISC of US$1,835-2,070/oz vs. Macquarie ests (Apr-26) of 447.2koz at US$2,036/oz (~1% production beat at the midpoint, while costs also 4% lower)

Company page: Perseus Mining (PRU)

NAB business lending grows 4% in June quarter as watch loans climb 8%

[9:20 am] NAB's Business and Private Banking division posted solid lending and deposit growth, though a rise in watch loans points to emerging stress.

• Business lending balances up 4%, including the strongest June month since FY22

• Home lending balances up 2%, though the value of home lending applications fell 9% on the prior quarter

• Deposit balances up 1% in line with seasonal trends, with at-call deposits excluding offset accounts up 3%

• Non-performing loans to GLAs improved to 2.91% from 3.00% at March

• Watch loans up 8% over the quarter, reflecting current and potential impacts from a challenging environment

• Third Quarter Trading Update due Monday 17 August

Company page: National Australia Bank (NAB)

Predictive Discovery pours 64,026 oz as Kiniéro ramp-up lifts output 33%, cash tops US$364m

[9:19 am] Predictive delivered a strong June quarter against consensus, with Kiniéro running well above nameplate and group cash and bullion climbing to US$364.3m.

• Group gold poured of 64,026 oz, up 33% q/q

• Group AISC of US$1,408/oz, up 18% q/q

• Cash and bullion of US$364.3m, up 31% q/q, against US$130m of drawn Sprott debt, with a US$112m cash margin from operations

• Realised price of US$4,441/oz, down 8% q/q on lower spot

• 2026 guidance reaffirmed at 198,000-220,000 oz, with new AISC guidance of US$1,300-1,500/oz group-wide

• Bankan execution readiness advanced with FEED complete and detailed design underway, the US$463m DFS capital cost unchanged and power, mill and TSF contracts awarded

Company page: Predictive Discovery (PDI)

Pantoro misses on Q4 costs and cash, reaffirms FY27 guidance

[9:16 am] Pantoro's June quarter came in soft against consensus on costs and cash as an underground contractor transition weighed on output, though production landed in line and FY27 guidance was reaffirmed.

• Gold production of 18,028 oz in-line, with 16,366 oz sold

• AISC jumped 29% QoQ to A$4,107/oz on the OK contractor switch to Redpath and reduced Scotia output

  • Unclear if comparable to A$3,099/oz ests (33% higher)

• Realised price of A$6,293/oz vs ests of A$6,515/oz (3% miss)

• EBITDA of $44.8m for the quarter

• Cash and gold of $223.4m vs ests $264.0m (15% miss), after a $15m advance to Mega Resources and $10.8m on the buyback, with no debt

• FY27 guidance reaffirmed at 90,000-105,000 oz and AISC of $2,800-$3,400/oz

Company page: Pantoro Gold (PNR)

Domino's reaffirms FY26 underlying earnings but flags $259m in write-downs and a statutory loss

[9:10 am] Domino's held underlying guidance while warning of a statutory loss driven by largely non-cash balance sheet write-downs.

• Underlying NPAT guided to $118m-$122m, consistent with prior guidance

• Same-store sales down 4.1%, comprising ANZ down 4.7%, Europe down 2.2% and Asia down 6.7%

• Total balance sheet write-downs of around $259m, of which about $246m are non-cash, driving a statutory loss for FY26

• Free cash flow of around $164m, up from $116.6m on FY25

• Franchisee profitability of $105.7k for the rolling 12 months to Q3 FY26, up 11.3% on a constant currency basis

• Net leverage reduced to around 1.9x EBITDA, with $60m-$70m of annualised cost savings delivered and $1.05bn of new banking facilities refinanced

A relatively mixed trading update, as the latest UBS note (16-Jun) expected Group same-store sales growth of (-2.5%) for FY26 (comprised of declines of 4.1% for ANZ, 0.4% for Europe and 4.6% for Asia). So it appears that ANZ and Asia are performing worse than expected. The stock has been trading relatively sideways for the past four months, and down 14% YTD.

Company page: Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

Pilbara Minerals beats on Q4 output and shipments, guides FY27 production up to 1,100kt

[9:09 am] Pilbara delivered record annual production and sales with a 31% revenue jump in the June quarter, and issued FY27 guidance.

• Spodumene production of 214.3kt vs 212.4kt ests (1% beat)

• Record shipments of 249.9kt vs 225.6kt ests (11% beat)

• Revenue up 31% to $743m vs $691.5m ests (7% beat)

• Realised price up 13% to US$2,107/t, equivalent to US$2,415/t on an SC6 basis vs US$2,517/t ests (4% miss)

• Unit operating cost FOB of $616/t vs $606/t ests (2% higher), lifted by higher diesel prices and Ngungaju restart costs

• Cash of $2,290m vs $1,580m ests, up 57% in the quarter including proceeds from the inaugural US$600m bond, with net cash of $1,344m

• FY27 guidance of 1,030kt-1,100kt production, FOB unit cost of $575-625/t and capex of $620m-$685m

The FY27 guidance is relatively in-line with consensus of 1,060kt production at A$592/t FOB.

Company page: Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

Boss Energy hits revised FY26 guidance with record Q4 uranium output and brings forward feasibility study

[9:05 am] The uranium producer drummed 1,407klbs U3O8 at Honeymoon for FY26, up 61% on FY25, and has pulled forward its New Feasibility Study to end August.

• Q4 production of 362klbs U3O8, up 79% QoQ on a rain-hit Q3 to close out FY26 at the top of the 1.4 to 1.45Mlbs guidance range, on record quarterly flow of 3.5m cubic metres

• FY26 C1 cost of $39/lb and AISC of $61/lb landed within revised guidance, with Q4 AISC down 25% q/q to $70/lb as operations normalised after March rainfall

• Cash and inventory grew $13.1m and 172klbs over FY26, leaving $207.3m in cash and liquid assets, no debt, and total inventory of 1,581klbs

• Q4 realised price of US$75/lb, with Boss guiding to circa US$80 to 82/lb in Q1FY27 and staying strategically under-contracted as the term price rose 19% over 12 months

• The New Feasibility Study, updated life-of-mine plan and JORC resource are now targeted for end August, a month early, with FY27 guidance to follow then

• Alta Mesa JV output fell to 45klbs (100% basis) on Texas permitting delays, with Boss's 30% share at 13klbs; Peter Botten joins as Chair from 30 September

Company page: Boss Energy (BOE)

Resolute lifts net cash to US$317m as gold production tracks 2026 guidance

[9:04 am] The West Africa-focused gold miner poured 45,192 oz in the June quarter at a group AISC of US$2,484/oz, with a US$4,526/oz realised price and Ravenswood proceeds strengthening the balance sheet.

• Net cash rose to US$317.4m, up more than US$108m over H1, with US$426m available liquidity and US$77.4m operating cash flow in the quarter

• Syama poured 29,881 oz at US$2,654/oz in a challenging Mali environment, with full-year output now expected toward the lower end of guidance

• Mako delivered 15,311 oz at US$1,538/oz on strong stockpile processing and 99%-plus mill utilisation, with stockpiles set to run to end 2027

• Doropo moved into active construction, on track and on budget for first gold in H2 2028, backed by US$155m of local bank financing with a further US$105m expected in Q3

• The ABC project's updated inferred resource rose to 3.0 Moz (133 Mt at 0.71 g/t), positioning it as a potential fourth mine

• 2026 guidance reaffirmed but now tracking towards the lower end of 250,000 to 275,000 oz at an AISC of US$2,000 to US$2,200/oz

Company page: Resolute Mining (RSG)

Divided Fed holds rates in first three-way dissent since 2016 as Warsh doubles down on less guidance

[8:54 am] The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with Chair Kevin Warsh refusing to signal on future moves and welcoming the market-driven surge in yields.

• Regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike, the first time three voters have dissented on one direction since September 2016

• Warsh pledged the Fed "will not hesitate to act" on its 2% goal but reiterated it is out of the forecasting business, saying markets are "learning to play the ball and not the referee"

• He rejected the "pause" framing, called the meeting a period of "watchful thinking" and described the dissents as a "good family fight"

• The statement was near-identical to June's and far shorter than the Powell-era norm, again closing with the line "The Committee will deliver price stability"

• Goldman Sachs AM called September "finely balanced," dependent on Middle East developments and the next two CPI prints; BMO read the majority as siding with Warsh until at least September

• Trump backed Warsh as "fantastic," claiming the chair would "love to see lower interest rates" but is held back by a "political board"

Oil surges as US-Iran fighting resumes, cutting across stalled Hormuz talks

[8:53 am] Brent jumped after Iran launched a surprise missile attack on US forces and Trump vowed heavy retaliation, shattering a multiday pause as diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz remains deadlocked.

• Brent crude rose as fighting resumed following three days of declines, with the IRGC firing multiple ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan, per Axios, all intercepted by Centcom

• Trump vowed to hit Iran hard, and US and Saudi forces struck logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq, with Iran-backed forces reporting at least 20 killed

• The Red Sea added a second flashpoint, with a tanker reporting an explosion in the southern stretch near the Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint used to divert Saudi oil from Hormuz

• Iran rejected Oman's proposal for a 50-50 split of Hormuz oversight and countered with terms giving Tehran control over both inbound and outbound lanes

• Tehran warned the strait stays shut without a deal and cannot revert to toll-free passage, reportedly seeking a $1m per ship service fee versus the ~$70m a year the comparable Malacca model raises

• About one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipped via Hormuz pre-war; the strait has been closed since Tehran shut it early in the conflict, with a June 17 MoU to reopen it undermined by vague wording

Meta tumbles as EPS misses on legal charges and AI spending

[8:52 am] Meta topped revenue estimates with 28% top-line growth, though a large legal charge and heavier spending weighed on the bottom line. The result was announced after market close, with Meta shares currently down 7.5%.

• Revenue up 28% to $60.8bn vs $60.17bn ests (1% beat)

• EPS down 13% to $6.18 vs $7.22 ests (14% miss)

• Operating income down 8% to $18.8bn vs $21.5bn ests (13% miss)

• Advertising revenue up 27% to $59.4bn vs $59.01bn ests (1% beat), with ad impressions up 14% and average price per ad up 12%

• Capex of $31.08bn vs $33.7bn ests, with FY26 capex guidance lifted to $130bn-$145bn from $125bn-$145bn

• Q3 revenue guided to $61bn-$64bn vs $63.15bn ests, with Q2 including $2.40bn of legal proceeding charges

Meta on monetising AI compute and its buildout strategy

[8:50 am] Management framed compute scarcity as a competitive advantage and made the case for building intelligence over selling capacity.

• On demand: "There's just nowhere near enough compute for all the demand" per CEO Mark Zuckerberg, with the company fielding numerous offers at a premium to what it paid

• On monetisation: "We believe there will continue to be a significantly higher margin on selling intelligence rather than selling compute directly"

• On not selling compute: "It would be foolish to basically just sell all of the compute and take a short-term profit" when building intelligence on top compounds the value

• On 2027 capex: no guidance provided, with infrastructure planning described as "highly dynamic" and geared toward maximising 2026 and 2027 capacity

• On financing: shifting toward a greater mix of debt to lower its cost of capital, favouring cost-efficient, long-duration funding

Starbucks tops estimates on 70% EPS jump, lifts FY26 guidance

[8:49 am] Starbucks beat on both lines with global comp sales up 7.9%, prompting a raised full-year outlook despite an optical revenue drop from its China restructuring. The stock is currently up 4.1% after hours.

• Revenue down 1% to $9.3bn vs $9.16bn ests (2% beat)

• Global comp sales up 7.9%, with North America up 8.1% and International up 5.7%

• Non-GAAP operating margin of 14.4%, up 430bps

• Adjusted EPS up 70% to $0.85 vs $0.66 ests (29% beat)

• FY26 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $2.55-$2.65 vs $2.40 ests, with global comp growth nearing 6.0%

• International revenue down 34% reflects the conversion of Starbucks China to a licensed JV with Boyu Capital, not demand, with SBUX retaining a 40% stake

Microsoft beats as Azure surpasses $100bn, guides to accelerating cloud growth

[8:48 am] Microsoft topped revenue and earnings estimates with Azure growth of 43% ex-FX, and flagged a further pickup into FY27. The result was announced after market close, with Microsoft shares currently up 8.0% after hours.

• Revenue of $90.01bn vs $87.72bn ests (3% beat)

• Adjusted EPS of $4.74 vs $4.25 ests (12% beat)

• Azure and other cloud revenue up 43% ex-FX vs 39.6% ests, with annual Azure revenue surpassing $100bn

• Operating income of $40.60bn vs $39.02bn ests (4% beat)

• Q1 Azure guided to around 45% constant currency, accelerating from 43% in Q4, with Q1 revenue of $89.85bn-$90.95bn vs $89.63bn ests

• Microsoft 365 Copilot now over 30m paid seats, with a $3.2bn gain booked on the Anthropic investment

Microsoft on Azure supply constraints, model architecture and overcapacity risk

[8:46 am] Nadella and the team framed Azure's acceleration as demand outrunning supply, while stressing flexibility to dial back spending if conditions shift.

• On Azure demand: "Customer demand continues to exceed supply", with Q1 growth of 45% in constant currency expected and first-half growth set to accelerate

• On monetising efficiency: "When we make efficiency gains, they are quickly monetized within the quarter", spanning both the CPU and GPU fleet

• On enterprise AI architecture: "You've got to keep your harness separate from the model" so that "any given model, at any given time, is swappable"

• On overcapacity risk: "If the demand environment changes, you just slow down what is the largest component of spending: CPUs and GPUs", with land and data centre builds a smaller, more flexible piece

• On adoption: Copilot revenue accelerated more than 60% quarter-on-quarter, GitHub reached 225m users and GitHub Copilot 50m

Kospi plunges 16% in two days as retail selling triggers back-to-back circuit breakers

[8:46 am] South Korea's benchmark index has fallen a record 33% this month, with disappointing SK Hynix earnings intensifying an AI-driven rout that prompted emergency stabilisation measures.

• The Kospi slid as much as 13% intraday Wednesday before closing down 6%, triggering a circuit breaker for a second straight day, an unprecedented event

• Retail investors sold a net 2 trillion won ($1.4bn) of Kospi stocks Wednesday, a larger outflow than foreign investors

• SK Hynix fell as much as 20% intraday, at one point down almost 60% from its June high, before closing off 9.6% after a call light on shareholder returns and contract pricing detail

• SK Hynix will lift capex to at least $31bn after a six-fold surge in quarterly profit, but the silence on returns left investors uneasy given its and Samsung's weight in the index

• Authorities held an emergency meeting and will cap retail exposure to leveraged ETFs, raise trading costs and seek a legal basis for emergency stabilisation measures

• Of the 15 Kospi circuit breakers triggered since 2000, nine have come this year; Samsung reports Thursday

Source: Bloomberg

JPMorgan's trading desk flags a tactical S&P 500 buy signal, days after Dimon warned off stocks

[8:44 am] JPMorgan's global market intelligence team, led by Andrew Tyler, says its US Tactical Positioning Monitor is flashing a buy signal for the S&P 500, contrasting sharply with CEO Jamie Dimon's public caution six days earlier.

• The monitor tracks client exposure to US equities and hit an "oversold" level Tyler's team called an attractive, contrarian setup pointing to material upside

• Historically, similar four-week positioning shifts have preceded S&P 500 gains of about 3% over the following 20 days, versus roughly 1% in other periods, with April 2024 and April 2026 cited as comparisons

• The call is tactical, not a strategic reset, and reflects light client positioning rather than any change to earnings or macro forecasts

• Five tailwinds are cited: falling bond yields, a weaker dollar, strong corporate earnings, easing Middle East tensions and an expected Fed hold

• Flagged risks are crowded semiconductor positioning, where higher AI spend no longer automatically lifts chipmakers, and any re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict

• Dimon said on July 21 he would not buy US stocks or long-dated Treasurys at current prices, arguing the market was underpricing risk

Source: The Street

Chip stocks shed more than $1 trillion as AI selloff deepens

[8:42 am] The world's most valuable semiconductor names have lost over $1 trillion in market cap since Friday's close, led by Nvidia's $238bn rout, as investors reprice AI spending expectations.

• Nvidia, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, AMD and TSMC each shed more than $100bn, with 20 major chip stocks losing a combined $1.3tn since Friday per CNBC/FactSet

• The Philadelphia semiconductor index has risen 92% over 12 months but is down nearly 20% in the past month

• SK Hynix closed 9.61% lower in Seoul despite record quarterly profit and revenue, missing estimates, with Samsung off more than 5%

• Morningstar's Michael Field called the decline sentiment-driven rather than fundamental, framing it as a loss of confidence in growth names reliant on distant cash flows

• Forrester's Charlie Dai said the move is less about weakening AI demand and more a repricing after an exceptionally strong rally, amid worries capex may be peaking faster than expected

Source: CNBC

Wall Street sinks as Nasdaq 100 hits correction

[8:37 am] US stocks closed sharply lower as a chip rout and surging long-end yields collided with resurgent oil, with the S&P 500 down 1.5%.

• The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1% to enter a technical correction, now down 11% from its record, while the Dow shed 2.2% and the S&P 500 lost 1.5%

• WTI crude jumped 6.9% to $84.37 and Brent hit US$88 as oil's resurgence stoked inflation concerns

• Chipmakers led the selloff, with Qualcomm and Arm both delivering disappointing forecasts as investors turn wary on the sector

• After hours, Meta gave a lacklustre outlook while Microsoft's cloud unit grew at its fastest pace in four years

• Starbucks and Chipotle both lifted annual guidance on stronger results, while Carvana warned full-year earnings may miss

Source: Bloomberg

US 30-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2007 as Fed holds and drops forward guidance

[8:34 am] The FOMC stood pat for a fifth straight meeting, and Chair Kevin Warsh's refusal to signal on future policy sent long-end yields surging and volatility soaring.

• 30-year yields climbed 12 bps to 5.21%, the highest since 2007, while the dollar dropped

• 2-year yields fell 1bp to 4.26% and 10-year yields rose 8bps to 4.68%, with the curve steepening as markets priced the Fed doing less near-term but more later

• Policymakers voted 9-3 to hold the funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari dissenting in favour of a hike

• September hike odds sit near 60% on interest-rate swaps, down from real-time swings during the presser, with a December hike fully priced

• Apollo's Torsten Slok said the loss of forward guidance is fuelling yo-yo volatility and a challenge to Fed credibility, with bond markets tightening themselves: "If you are not hiking rates, we are"

• Wall Street forecasts have split wide, from BofA tipping three hikes to Citi expecting three cuts, as Warsh tells traders to "play the ball and not the referee"

Source: Bloomberg

Good morning!

[8:27 am] ASX 200 futures are down 51 pts (-0.57%)

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks tumbled and finished at worst levels

• S&P 500 (-1.52%) aggressively sold off in the last hour of trade, flipping from a ~0.2% gain to a negative close

• A hawkish Fed hold, as three policymakers dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike, the most one-directional dissent since 2016

• US 30-year yields spiked to the highest since 2007, while the 10-year returned to the upper bound of its recent trading range

• Iran fired missiles at US bases in Jordan and Trump vowed retaliation, sending Brent up 6% to US$88 a barrel