ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 30th July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, July 30. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

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New updates

ASX 200 snaps three-day win streak

[1:59 pm] That's a wrap! The S&P/ASX 200 is down 0.72%, slight off session lows of (0.88%) and on track to snap a three-day win streak. The Fed's hawkish hold, angst around Mag-7 results and extreme volatility for AI-related stocks have smothered the positive takeaways from Wednesday's CPI print. Breadth is very weak today, with just two sectors (Energy +0.02% and Tech +1.0%) trading higher, and 151 constituents (75%) are currently falling. Stocks that have managed to buck the trend include software, select industrials, refiners and banks. Overall, the macro landscape remains as volatile as ever, with longer-dated yields soaring. Perhaps the market is worried about inflation and wants the Fed to act more aggressively. Nevertheless, the ASX 200 is pulling back after a solid three-day rally where it gained 3.0% to hit a near five-month high.

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China thermal coal rebounds as heatwave lifts aircon and power demand

[1:54 pm] Chinese thermal coal prices are recovering as hotter weather drives up air-conditioning use, with analysts tipping further gains through peak season.

• Spot prices at Qinhuangdao reached 822 yuan a tonne on Monday, paring a 7% monthly decline that saw a 13 July low of 797 yuan

• Prices seen more likely to rise than fall, with the peak coal-fired power season far from over and El Nino impacts yet to fully materialise

• Hydro generation expected to weaken after rising 9.3% in the first half, with weak wind and solar also forecast for summer

• Domestic supply constrained after a fatal late-May accident in Shanxi triggered safety inspections, cutting provincial output 32% in June

• Stockpiles still high, having been built up earlier in anticipation of El Nino heat that gave way to cooling rainstorms

Source: Bloomberg

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MinRes and PLS soar as peers sink

[1:06 pm] Better-than-expected quarterly updates from heavyweights PLS Group and MinRes (Wed) has helped the two miners far outperform other lithium peers.

PLS reported relatively in-line production, costs and pricing for the June quarter, with the company's cash position soaring 57% quarter-on-quarter to $2.29 billion.

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US launches fresh strikes on Iran as Hormuz stays shut and Brent holds near US$86

[1:01 pm] The US struck dozens of IRGC targets in retaliation for attacks on its Middle East bases, escalating a conflict that continues to grip energy markets.

• US hit dozens of IRGC targets including command centres, missile and drone facilities and maritime capabilities, though civilian infrastructure was not targeted

• Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed with few ships passing, as the US enforces a blockade against Iran

• Ceasefire collapsed after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan, all reportedly intercepted

• Conflict widening, with strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels and drone strikes on two LNG vessels in Egypt

• Qatar sent its first LNG shipment through Hormuz since its tanker was struck on 7 July, signalling a possible resumption

Source: Bloomberg

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UBS keeps Buy on Domino's but trims target to $22 as store network shrinks

[12:18 pm] UBS retained its Buy rating on Domino's, framing the store closures as a deliberate shift towards profitability over headline growth.

• Price target cut to $22 from $24, retaining Buy

• Store network revised down for 2H26 to date, with closures in Europe (-25, mostly France), Asia (-13) and ANZ (-2)

• Net store growth forecast at a modest 0.5%/1.0%/2.0% across FY27/FY28/FY29 as closures conclude by e nd-FY26

• FY26 EPS trimmed 0.8% and FY27 cut 0.5%, on lower store numbers partly offset by higher margins

• UBS FY26 underlying NPAT of $122.5m versus consensus of $118.8m, supporting reaffirmed guidance

• Trades on a 12.0x one-year forward P/E, a 42% discount to ASX 200 Industrials ex-financials

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Samsung Q2 operating profit jumps 19-fold to a record on AI chip demand

[12:17 pm] Samsung posted record quarterly operating profit as AI-driven memory demand more than doubled group revenue.

• Operating profit of 89.5tn won, up from 4.68tn won a year ago

• Revenue up 130% to 171.5tn won

• H2 memory demand expected to keep the market undersupplied, led by AI infrastructure spending and broader agentic AI adoption, despite softer mobile and PC demand

• KOSPI up 3.0% after falling as much as 2.0% earlier, though the index remains 37.7% below its 19 June record high

• Samsung shares dipped 3.1% in early trade, now up 7.1%

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Dwelling approvals jump 7.2% in June on apartment rebound

[12:15 pm] Australian dwelling approvals rose more than expected in June, driven by a sharp bounce in apartments and higher-density housing.

• Total dwellings approved up 7.2% to 18,328 in seasonally adjusted terms

• Private dwellings excluding houses up 17.8% to 7,138, rebounding from an 11.0% fall in May

• Private sector house approvals up 0.4% to 10,631, the sixth straight month above 10,000 and 15.8% higher than a year ago

• FY26 approvals up 9.2% to 205,249, the highest since FY21, with apartments up 13.2% to 48,778

• Average new house approval value of $517,430 in FY26, up 5.0% on the prior year

• Total building value down 5.5% to $20.00bn, as non-residential fell 24.7% to $8.26bn off a record high while residential rose 15.1% to $11.75bn

Source: ABS

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Analysts' take on Liontown

[11:29 am] Liontown Resources met all four FY26 guidance metrics at Kathleen Valley and moved into a net cash position, but the June quarter result on Wednesday was overshadowed by maiden FY27 guidance that disappointed across the board: production came in below most forecasts while unit costs and capex sat materially above consensus. The stock fell 7.9% on the day and down a further 9.7% today.

• Jarden retained Underweight, lowered target from $1.00 to $0.90, citing a material revenue miss on weaker volumes and pricing, FY27 cost guidance that implies further consensus downgrades, and a preference to await a more attractive entry point.

• Bell Potter retained Buy, lowered target from $2.90 to $1.90, noting FY27 production guidance well below prior forecasts and a capex outlook materially above consensus, while modelling full underground feed by end FY27 and a staged 4Mtpa expansion with FID due September.

• Goldman Sachs retained Neutral, lowered target from $1.80 to $1.55, cutting valuation sharply on recoveries and capex but retaining a constructive stance on the view that sentiment is near maximum bearishness and a share price recovery should follow.

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Analysts' take on MinRes

[11:28 am] Mineral Resources capped off its financial year with a strong final quarter update on Wednesday, delivering production and cost beats across mining services, iron ore and lithium while achieving or exceeding FY guidance across every segment and continuing to deleverage. The stock rallied 4.8% on the day.

• Morgans upgraded to Buy from Accumulate, target maintained at $68.00, citing record mining services volumes driving a broad quarterly beat, lithium production and costs materially ahead of expectations, and net debt reduction that strengthened the balance sheet.

• Goldman Sachs upgraded to Neutral from Sell, raised target from $58.00 to $60.00, noting guidance achieved or exceeded across all segments and refinancing and prepayment repayment as balance sheet positives, with a share price retracement prompting the upgrade and the pending lithium stake sale excluded from estimates.

• Macquarie retained Outperform, target maintained at $85.00, highlighting the latent capacity of assets with Onslow shipments annualising above facility nameplate, deleveraging now a secondary concern, though the constructive outlook is viewed as priced into the equity.

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Energy One set to soar on $565m takeover bid from Norway's Volue at 57% premium

[11:25 am] Software provider Energy One has received a $17-a-share scheme bid from PE-backed Norwegian rival Volue, well above its last traded price, the AFR reports.

• $17 per share scheme bid, a roughly 57% premium to the last close, valuing Energy One at around $565m

• Bid well above the $5.85 per share non-binding proposal from STG Partners nearly three years ago

• Volue, backed by TA Associates and Advent International, expected to push for due diligence

• Concentrated register the key swing factor, with Ian Ferrier holding 15.9%, Wilson Asset Management 9.8%, Regal Funds Management 9.4% and former CEO Vaughan Busby 6.8%

Source: AFR

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RBA's Hunter says CPI came in softer as markets pare August hike odds

[10:55 am] RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said second-quarter inflation surprised to the downside, though a still-tight labour market keeps rate hikes in play.

• Q2 headline inflation came in below the RBA's May forecast, driven by lower fuel prices, but remains above the 2-3% target band

• Money markets pricing little chance of an August hike and around 60% odds of another move by year end

• June unemployment steady at 4.4% versus the RBA's 4.2% forecast, with hiring strong and job growth holding up over the first half

• Consumer sentiment hit hard but not yet feeding into household spending as expected

• Quarterly forecast update and August rate decision due in 12 days, after the RBA hiked at its first three meetings of 2026 then paused in June

• Anchoring inflation expectations described as "one of our north stars", with de-anchoring flagged as something the bank "absolutely cannot let happen"

Source: Bloomberg

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Samsung chip profit soars 250-fold as AI memory shortage lifts margins past SK Hynix

[10:54 am] Samsung's semiconductor arm beat estimates with a more than 250-fold profit jump, as HBM demand and supply constraints drove pricing.

• Semiconductor operating income of 89.2tn won (US$62bn) vs 79.3tn won ests (12% beat), up more than 250-fold on the prior year

• Group net income of 71.3tn won, also ahead of estimates

• Memory supply constraints expected to persist despite added production, with AI data server demand for HBM and storage driving the shortage

• Foundry business gaining traction and targeting double-digit revenue, though mobile and networks reported a loss

• Shares rose as much as 4.1% before slipping 1.9% in Seoul, reflecting overcapacity and rising tech-sector debt concerns

• $200bn-plus contract to supply chips to Broadcom through 2030, focused on 2nm and advanced process technologies

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Retail stocks fall from eight month highs

[10:44 am] The ASX Discretionary index is down 1.2%, pulling back from yesterday's eight-month high. Airlines and travel stocks after oil prices spiked 6.1% overnight to US$88.12 a barrel.

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Banks edge higher

[10:29 am] The ASX 200 Financials index is fractionally higher and on a seven day win streak. There's no major reason for bank outperformance this morning, besides a June quarter update from NAB. The numbers read well at face value, including higher business lending balances and small decline in non-performing loans.

• Business lending balances up 4%, including the strongest June month since FY22

• Home lending balances up 2%, though the value of home lending applications fell 9% on the prior quarter

• Deposit balances up 1% in line with seasonal trends, with at-call deposits excluding offset accounts up 3%

• Non-performing loans to GLAs improved to 2.91% from 3.00% at March

• Watch loans up 8% over the quarter, reflecting current and potential impacts from a challenging environment

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Top ASX 200 gainers and losers

[10:14 am] Here are the top movers in early trade. Software and energy stocks have opened slightly higher, while miners including lithium, uranium and rare earths lag.

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Ampol 1H26 earnings surge, Lytton refinery to undergo maintenance

[9:56 am] Ampol flagged a step-change in first-half earnings as the Strait of Hormuz closure lifted refining margins well above year-ago levels.

• RCOP EBITDA of around $1,600m, up from $649m in 1H25, with RCOP EBIT of around $1,350m from $404m

• 2Q Lytton Refiner Margin of US$30.93/bbl, up from US$8.71/bbl in 2Q25, with the 1H average at US$28.26/bbl

• Refinery production of 2,945ML for 1H, up 8.7%

• Australian fuel sales ex Net-sell up 2.8%, with Convenience Retail volume up 2.4% aided by U-GO expanding from 34 to 47 sites

• EG Australia acquisition completed 30 June for cash consideration of $1,165m, fully cash-settled, with synergies of $65m-$80m per annum targeted within two years and no earnings included in 1H

• Lytton major maintenance from August to October 2026 to cut production by around 300ML, with 3Q supply largely secured

Macquarie (Jun-26) had forecast 1H26 RCOP EBITDA of $1,410m an Lytton refiner margins of US$23.89/bbl, so today's numbers have topped expectations by 13% and 18% respectively.

Company page: Ampol (ALD)

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Perseus Mining misses on Q4 output and costs as AISC runs above estimates

[9:26 am] Perseus produced 109koz of gold in the June quarter at a higher-than-expected cost, though strong pricing lifted cash margins and its balance sheet.

• Gold production of 109.0koz vs 111.4koz ests (2% miss), with Yaoure 38.9koz, Edikan 41.9koz and Sissingue 28.1koz

• AISC of US$1,941/oz vs US$1,794/oz ests (8% higher)

• Gold sales of 114.6koz, up from 96.3koz the prior quarter, at an average sales price of US$4,086/oz

• Notional operating cashflow of US$216m, down from US$252m the prior quarter, with a record US$769m for FY26

• Cash and bullion of US$1.03bn, plus listed securities of US$233m, with the share buyback increased to $150m

• FY27 guidance of 420koz-480koz production at AISC of US$1,835-2,070/oz vs. Macquarie ests (Apr-26) of 447.2koz at US$2,036/oz (~1% production beat at the midpoint, while costs also 4% lower)

Company page: Perseus Mining (PRU)

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NAB business lending grows 4% in June quarter as watch loans climb 8%

[9:20 am] NAB's Business and Private Banking division posted solid lending and deposit growth, though a rise in watch loans points to emerging stress.

• Business lending balances up 4%, including the strongest June month since FY22

• Home lending balances up 2%, though the value of home lending applications fell 9% on the prior quarter

• Deposit balances up 1% in line with seasonal trends, with at-call deposits excluding offset accounts up 3%

• Non-performing loans to GLAs improved to 2.91% from 3.00% at March

• Watch loans up 8% over the quarter, reflecting current and potential impacts from a challenging environment

• Third Quarter Trading Update due Monday 17 August

Company page: National Australia Bank (NAB)

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Predictive Discovery pours 64,026 oz as Kiniéro ramp-up lifts output 33%, cash tops US$364m

[9:19 am] Predictive delivered a strong June quarter against consensus, with Kiniéro running well above nameplate and group cash and bullion climbing to US$364.3m.

• Group gold poured of 64,026 oz, up 33% q/q

• Group AISC of US$1,408/oz, up 18% q/q

• Cash and bullion of US$364.3m, up 31% q/q, against US$130m of drawn Sprott debt, with a US$112m cash margin from operations

• Realised price of US$4,441/oz, down 8% q/q on lower spot

• 2026 guidance reaffirmed at 198,000-220,000 oz, with new AISC guidance of US$1,300-1,500/oz group-wide

• Bankan execution readiness advanced with FEED complete and detailed design underway, the US$463m DFS capital cost unchanged and power, mill and TSF contracts awarded

Company page: Predictive Discovery (PDI)

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Pantoro misses on Q4 costs and cash, reaffirms FY27 guidance

[9:16 am] Pantoro's June quarter came in soft against consensus on costs and cash as an underground contractor transition weighed on output, though production landed in line and FY27 guidance was reaffirmed.

• Gold production of 18,028 oz in-line, with 16,366 oz sold

• AISC jumped 29% QoQ to A$4,107/oz on the OK contractor switch to Redpath and reduced Scotia output

  • Unclear if comparable to A$3,099/oz ests (33% higher)

• Realised price of A$6,293/oz vs ests of A$6,515/oz (3% miss)

• EBITDA of $44.8m for the quarter

• Cash and gold of $223.4m vs ests $264.0m (15% miss), after a $15m advance to Mega Resources and $10.8m on the buyback, with no debt

• FY27 guidance reaffirmed at 90,000-105,000 oz and AISC of $2,800-$3,400/oz

Company page: Pantoro Gold (PNR)

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Domino's reaffirms FY26 underlying earnings but flags $259m in write-downs and a statutory loss

[9:10 am] Domino's held underlying guidance while warning of a statutory loss driven by largely non-cash balance sheet write-downs.

• Underlying NPAT guided to $118m-$122m, consistent with prior guidance

• Same-store sales down 4.1%, comprising ANZ down 4.7%, Europe down 2.2% and Asia down 6.7%

• Total balance sheet write-downs of around $259m, of which about $246m are non-cash, driving a statutory loss for FY26

• Free cash flow of around $164m, up from $116.6m on FY25

• Franchisee profitability of $105.7k for the rolling 12 months to Q3 FY26, up 11.3% on a constant currency basis

• Net leverage reduced to around 1.9x EBITDA, with $60m-$70m of annualised cost savings delivered and $1.05bn of new banking facilities refinanced

A relatively mixed trading update, as the latest UBS note (16-Jun) expected Group same-store sales growth of (-2.5%) for FY26 (comprised of declines of 4.1% for ANZ, 0.4% for Europe and 4.6% for Asia). So it appears that ANZ and Asia are performing worse than expected. The stock has been trading relatively sideways for the past four months, and down 14% YTD.

Company page: Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DMP)

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Pilbara Minerals beats on Q4 output and shipments, guides FY27 production up to 1,100kt

[9:09 am] Pilbara delivered record annual production and sales with a 31% revenue jump in the June quarter, and issued FY27 guidance.

• Spodumene production of 214.3kt vs 212.4kt ests (1% beat)

• Record shipments of 249.9kt vs 225.6kt ests (11% beat)

• Revenue up 31% to $743m vs $691.5m ests (7% beat)

• Realised price up 13% to US$2,107/t, equivalent to US$2,415/t on an SC6 basis vs US$2,517/t ests (4% miss)

• Unit operating cost FOB of $616/t vs $606/t ests (2% higher), lifted by higher diesel prices and Ngungaju restart costs

• Cash of $2,290m vs $1,580m ests, up 57% in the quarter including proceeds from the inaugural US$600m bond, with net cash of $1,344m

• FY27 guidance of 1,030kt-1,100kt production, FOB unit cost of $575-625/t and capex of $620m-$685m

The FY27 guidance is relatively in-line with consensus of 1,060kt production at A$592/t FOB.

Company page: Pilbara Minerals (PLS)

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Boss Energy hits revised FY26 guidance with record Q4 uranium output and brings forward feasibility study

[9:05 am] The uranium producer drummed 1,407klbs U3O8 at Honeymoon for FY26, up 61% on FY25, and has pulled forward its New Feasibility Study to end August.

• Q4 production of 362klbs U3O8, up 79% QoQ on a rain-hit Q3 to close out FY26 at the top of the 1.4 to 1.45Mlbs guidance range, on record quarterly flow of 3.5m cubic metres

• FY26 C1 cost of $39/lb and AISC of $61/lb landed within revised guidance, with Q4 AISC down 25% q/q to $70/lb as operations normalised after March rainfall

• Cash and inventory grew $13.1m and 172klbs over FY26, leaving $207.3m in cash and liquid assets, no debt, and total inventory of 1,581klbs

• Q4 realised price of US$75/lb, with Boss guiding to circa US$80 to 82/lb in Q1FY27 and staying strategically under-contracted as the term price rose 19% over 12 months

• The New Feasibility Study, updated life-of-mine plan and JORC resource are now targeted for end August, a month early, with FY27 guidance to follow then

• Alta Mesa JV output fell to 45klbs (100% basis) on Texas permitting delays, with Boss's 30% share at 13klbs; Peter Botten joins as Chair from 30 September

Company page: Boss Energy (BOE)

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Resolute lifts net cash to US$317m as gold production tracks 2026 guidance

[9:04 am] The West Africa-focused gold miner poured 45,192 oz in the June quarter at a group AISC of US$2,484/oz, with a US$4,526/oz realised price and Ravenswood proceeds strengthening the balance sheet.

• Net cash rose to US$317.4m, up more than US$108m over H1, with US$426m available liquidity and US$77.4m operating cash flow in the quarter

• Syama poured 29,881 oz at US$2,654/oz in a challenging Mali environment, with full-year output now expected toward the lower end of guidance

• Mako delivered 15,311 oz at US$1,538/oz on strong stockpile processing and 99%-plus mill utilisation, with stockpiles set to run to end 2027

• Doropo moved into active construction, on track and on budget for first gold in H2 2028, backed by US$155m of local bank financing with a further US$105m expected in Q3

• The ABC project's updated inferred resource rose to 3.0 Moz (133 Mt at 0.71 g/t), positioning it as a potential fourth mine

• 2026 guidance reaffirmed but now tracking towards the lower end of 250,000 to 275,000 oz at an AISC of US$2,000 to US$2,200/oz

Company page: Resolute Mining (RSG)

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Divided Fed holds rates in first three-way dissent since 2016 as Warsh doubles down on less guidance

[8:54 am] The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with Chair Kevin Warsh refusing to signal on future moves and welcoming the market-driven surge in yields.

• Regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike, the first time three voters have dissented on one direction since September 2016

• Warsh pledged the Fed "will not hesitate to act" on its 2% goal but reiterated it is out of the forecasting business, saying markets are "learning to play the ball and not the referee"

• He rejected the "pause" framing, called the meeting a period of "watchful thinking" and described the dissents as a "good family fight"

• The statement was near-identical to June's and far shorter than the Powell-era norm, again closing with the line "The Committee will deliver price stability"

• Goldman Sachs AM called September "finely balanced," dependent on Middle East developments and the next two CPI prints; BMO read the majority as siding with Warsh until at least September

• Trump backed Warsh as "fantastic," claiming the chair would "love to see lower interest rates" but is held back by a "political board"

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Oil surges as US-Iran fighting resumes, cutting across stalled Hormuz talks

[8:53 am] Brent jumped after Iran launched a surprise missile attack on US forces and Trump vowed heavy retaliation, shattering a multiday pause as diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz remains deadlocked.

• Brent crude rose as fighting resumed following three days of declines, with the IRGC firing multiple ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan, per Axios, all intercepted by Centcom

• Trump vowed to hit Iran hard, and US and Saudi forces struck logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq, with Iran-backed forces reporting at least 20 killed

• The Red Sea added a second flashpoint, with a tanker reporting an explosion in the southern stretch near the Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint used to divert Saudi oil from Hormuz

• Iran rejected Oman's proposal for a 50-50 split of Hormuz oversight and countered with terms giving Tehran control over both inbound and outbound lanes

• Tehran warned the strait stays shut without a deal and cannot revert to toll-free passage, reportedly seeking a $1m per ship service fee versus the ~$70m a year the comparable Malacca model raises

• About one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipped via Hormuz pre-war; the strait has been closed since Tehran shut it early in the conflict, with a June 17 MoU to reopen it undermined by vague wording

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Meta tumbles as EPS misses on legal charges and AI spending

[8:52 am] Meta topped revenue estimates with 28% top-line growth, though a large legal charge and heavier spending weighed on the bottom line. The result was announced after market close, with Meta shares currently down 7.5%.

• Revenue up 28% to $60.8bn vs $60.17bn ests (1% beat)

• EPS down 13% to $6.18 vs $7.22 ests (14% miss)

• Operating income down 8% to $18.8bn vs $21.5bn ests (13% miss)

• Advertising revenue up 27% to $59.4bn vs $59.01bn ests (1% beat), with ad impressions up 14% and average price per ad up 12%

• Capex of $31.08bn vs $33.7bn ests, with FY26 capex guidance lifted to $130bn-$145bn from $125bn-$145bn

• Q3 revenue guided to $61bn-$64bn vs $63.15bn ests, with Q2 including $2.40bn of legal proceeding charges

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Meta on monetising AI compute and its buildout strategy

[8:50 am] Management framed compute scarcity as a competitive advantage and made the case for building intelligence over selling capacity.

• On demand: "There's just nowhere near enough compute for all the demand" per CEO Mark Zuckerberg, with the company fielding numerous offers at a premium to what it paid

• On monetisation: "We believe there will continue to be a significantly higher margin on selling intelligence rather than selling compute directly"

• On not selling compute: "It would be foolish to basically just sell all of the compute and take a short-term profit" when building intelligence on top compounds the value

• On 2027 capex: no guidance provided, with infrastructure planning described as "highly dynamic" and geared toward maximising 2026 and 2027 capacity

• On financing: shifting toward a greater mix of debt to lower its cost of capital, favouring cost-efficient, long-duration funding

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Starbucks tops estimates on 70% EPS jump, lifts FY26 guidance

[8:49 am] Starbucks beat on both lines with global comp sales up 7.9%, prompting a raised full-year outlook despite an optical revenue drop from its China restructuring. The stock is currently up 4.1% after hours.

• Revenue down 1% to $9.3bn vs $9.16bn ests (2% beat)

• Global comp sales up 7.9%, with North America up 8.1% and International up 5.7%

• Non-GAAP operating margin of 14.4%, up 430bps

• Adjusted EPS up 70% to $0.85 vs $0.66 ests (29% beat)

• FY26 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $2.55-$2.65 vs $2.40 ests, with global comp growth nearing 6.0%

• International revenue down 34% reflects the conversion of Starbucks China to a licensed JV with Boyu Capital, not demand, with SBUX retaining a 40% stake

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Microsoft beats as Azure surpasses $100bn, guides to accelerating cloud growth

[8:48 am] Microsoft topped revenue and earnings estimates with Azure growth of 43% ex-FX, and flagged a further pickup into FY27. The result was announced after market close, with Microsoft shares currently up 8.0% after hours.

• Revenue of $90.01bn vs $87.72bn ests (3% beat)

• Adjusted EPS of $4.74 vs $4.25 ests (12% beat)

• Azure and other cloud revenue up 43% ex-FX vs 39.6% ests, with annual Azure revenue surpassing $100bn

• Operating income of $40.60bn vs $39.02bn ests (4% beat)

• Q1 Azure guided to around 45% constant currency, accelerating from 43% in Q4, with Q1 revenue of $89.85bn-$90.95bn vs $89.63bn ests

• Microsoft 365 Copilot now over 30m paid seats, with a $3.2bn gain booked on the Anthropic investment

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Microsoft on Azure supply constraints, model architecture and overcapacity risk

[8:46 am] Nadella and the team framed Azure's acceleration as demand outrunning supply, while stressing flexibility to dial back spending if conditions shift.

• On Azure demand: "Customer demand continues to exceed supply", with Q1 growth of 45% in constant currency expected and first-half growth set to accelerate

• On monetising efficiency: "When we make efficiency gains, they are quickly monetized within the quarter", spanning both the CPU and GPU fleet

• On enterprise AI architecture: "You've got to keep your harness separate from the model" so that "any given model, at any given time, is swappable"

• On overcapacity risk: "If the demand environment changes, you just slow down what is the largest component of spending: CPUs and GPUs", with land and data centre builds a smaller, more flexible piece

• On adoption: Copilot revenue accelerated more than 60% quarter-on-quarter, GitHub reached 225m users and GitHub Copilot 50m

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Kospi plunges 16% in two days as retail selling triggers back-to-back circuit breakers

[8:46 am] South Korea's benchmark index has fallen a record 33% this month, with disappointing SK Hynix earnings intensifying an AI-driven rout that prompted emergency stabilisation measures.

• The Kospi slid as much as 13% intraday Wednesday before closing down 6%, triggering a circuit breaker for a second straight day, an unprecedented event

• Retail investors sold a net 2 trillion won ($1.4bn) of Kospi stocks Wednesday, a larger outflow than foreign investors

• SK Hynix fell as much as 20% intraday, at one point down almost 60% from its June high, before closing off 9.6% after a call light on shareholder returns and contract pricing detail

• SK Hynix will lift capex to at least $31bn after a six-fold surge in quarterly profit, but the silence on returns left investors uneasy given its and Samsung's weight in the index

• Authorities held an emergency meeting and will cap retail exposure to leveraged ETFs, raise trading costs and seek a legal basis for emergency stabilisation measures

• Of the 15 Kospi circuit breakers triggered since 2000, nine have come this year; Samsung reports Thursday

Source: Bloomberg

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JPMorgan's trading desk flags a tactical S&P 500 buy signal, days after Dimon warned off stocks

[8:44 am] JPMorgan's global market intelligence team, led by Andrew Tyler, says its US Tactical Positioning Monitor is flashing a buy signal for the S&P 500, contrasting sharply with CEO Jamie Dimon's public caution six days earlier.

• The monitor tracks client exposure to US equities and hit an "oversold" level Tyler's team called an attractive, contrarian setup pointing to material upside

• Historically, similar four-week positioning shifts have preceded S&P 500 gains of about 3% over the following 20 days, versus roughly 1% in other periods, with April 2024 and April 2026 cited as comparisons

• The call is tactical, not a strategic reset, and reflects light client positioning rather than any change to earnings or macro forecasts

• Five tailwinds are cited: falling bond yields, a weaker dollar, strong corporate earnings, easing Middle East tensions and an expected Fed hold

• Flagged risks are crowded semiconductor positioning, where higher AI spend no longer automatically lifts chipmakers, and any re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict

• Dimon said on July 21 he would not buy US stocks or long-dated Treasurys at current prices, arguing the market was underpricing risk

Source: The Street

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Chip stocks shed more than $1 trillion as AI selloff deepens

[8:42 am] The world's most valuable semiconductor names have lost over $1 trillion in market cap since Friday's close, led by Nvidia's $238bn rout, as investors reprice AI spending expectations.

• Nvidia, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, AMD and TSMC each shed more than $100bn, with 20 major chip stocks losing a combined $1.3tn since Friday per CNBC/FactSet

• The Philadelphia semiconductor index has risen 92% over 12 months but is down nearly 20% in the past month

• SK Hynix closed 9.61% lower in Seoul despite record quarterly profit and revenue, missing estimates, with Samsung off more than 5%

• Morningstar's Michael Field called the decline sentiment-driven rather than fundamental, framing it as a loss of confidence in growth names reliant on distant cash flows

• Forrester's Charlie Dai said the move is less about weakening AI demand and more a repricing after an exceptionally strong rally, amid worries capex may be peaking faster than expected

Source: CNBC

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Wall Street sinks as Nasdaq 100 hits correction

[8:37 am] US stocks closed sharply lower as a chip rout and surging long-end yields collided with resurgent oil, with the S&P 500 down 1.5%.

• The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1% to enter a technical correction, now down 11% from its record, while the Dow shed 2.2% and the S&P 500 lost 1.5%

• WTI crude jumped 6.9% to $84.37 and Brent hit US$88 as oil's resurgence stoked inflation concerns

• Chipmakers led the selloff, with Qualcomm and Arm both delivering disappointing forecasts as investors turn wary on the sector

• After hours, Meta gave a lacklustre outlook while Microsoft's cloud unit grew at its fastest pace in four years

• Starbucks and Chipotle both lifted annual guidance on stronger results, while Carvana warned full-year earnings may miss

Source: Bloomberg

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US 30-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2007 as Fed holds and drops forward guidance

[8:34 am] The FOMC stood pat for a fifth straight meeting, and Chair Kevin Warsh's refusal to signal on future policy sent long-end yields surging and volatility soaring.

• 30-year yields climbed 12 bps to 5.21%, the highest since 2007, while the dollar dropped

• 2-year yields fell 1bp to 4.26% and 10-year yields rose 8bps to 4.68%, with the curve steepening as markets priced the Fed doing less near-term but more later

• Policymakers voted 9-3 to hold the funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with Logan, Hammack and Kashkari dissenting in favour of a hike

• September hike odds sit near 60% on interest-rate swaps, down from real-time swings during the presser, with a December hike fully priced

• Apollo's Torsten Slok said the loss of forward guidance is fuelling yo-yo volatility and a challenge to Fed credibility, with bond markets tightening themselves: "If you are not hiking rates, we are"

• Wall Street forecasts have split wide, from BofA tipping three hikes to Citi expecting three cuts, as Warsh tells traders to "play the ball and not the referee"

Source: Bloomberg

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Good morning!

[8:27 am] ASX 200 futures are down 51 pts (-0.57%)

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks tumbled and finished at worst levels

• S&P 500 (-1.52%) aggressively sold off in the last hour of trade, flipping from a ~0.2% gain to a negative close

• A hawkish Fed hold, as three policymakers dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike, the most one-directional dissent since 2016

• US 30-year yields spiked to the highest since 2007, while the 10-year returned to the upper bound of its recent trading range

• Iran fired missiles at US bases in Jordan and Trump vowed retaliation, sending Brent up 6% to US$88 a barrel