ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 23rd July

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, July 23. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.

Santos Q2 production and revenue miss as commissioning costs weigh

[9:14 am] Santos reported second-quarter production and revenue below consensus, though management flagged a sharp second-half uplift as Barossa and Pikka ramp up.

• Production of 23.1mmboe vs 24.1mmboe ests (4% miss), up 3% on the prior quarter, with first-half production of 45.6mmboe

• Sales revenue of US$1.35bn vs US$1.53bn ests (12% miss), up 6% on the prior quarter

• Realised LNG price of US$11.21/mmbtu vs US$12.5 ests (10% miss), up 4.9% quarter-on-quarter despite the pricing lag on a weak Q1 JCC

• Second-half production expected to rise around 20% to 30% on the first half, with Barossa at 97% of planned rates and Pikka targeting 80,000 bbl/day plateau in Q3

• FY26 production guidance narrowed to 99-105mmboe from 101-111mmboe, with capex unchanged at US$1.95bn-US$2.15bn and unit costs held at US$6.95-US$7.45/boe

• On the interim dividend: the board will weigh full-year cash flow timing, with first-half free cash flow hit by one-off items not reflective of underlying capacity

Company page: Santos (STO)

Sandfire finishes year strongly as Q4 copper output tops expectations

[9:07 am] Sandfire delivered a record quarter with copper equivalent production up 38% and well ahead of consensus, driving record financial outcomes and a swing to a solid net cash position.

• Group CuEq production up 38% to 47.6kt vs 43.6kt ests (9% beat), for annual output of 154.2kt within guidance

• Copper production of 34.2kt vs 29.1kt ests (18% beat), with silver at 1.8Moz vs 1.3Moz ests (38% beat), though zinc and lead came in below consensus

• Quarterly underlying EBITDA of $343m vs $325.5m ests (5% beat)

• C1 costs beat at both operations, with MATSA at US$0.47/lb vs US$0.66 ests and Motheo at US$0.70/lb vs US$0.86 ests

• Net cash of $353m at June, up $277m in the quarter, from $76m net cash at March and $123m net debt a year earlier

• FY26 CuEq guidance of 150-166kt, FY27 guidance of 150kt-166kt CuEq, with unit costs rising only incrementally but around a one-third increase in capital investment across the portfolio

Company page: Sandfire Resources (SFR)

Equals agrees deal process to acquire OFX at $1.00 per share cash

[9:04 am] OFX has entered a transaction process deed with UK-based Equals Group for an all-cash takeover at $1.00 per share, with the board intending to unanimously recommend the deal.

• Cash consideration of $1.00 per share values OFX equity at $247m and enterprise value at $233m, implying a 9.2x FY26 EV/EBITDA multiple

• Offer represents a 108% premium to OFX's undisturbed close of $0.480 on 4-Feb, the day before its strategic review was announced

• OFX board intends to unanimously recommend the scheme, subject to agreeing terms, comfort on Equals' debt funding, no superior proposal and an independent expert's endorsement

• Equals granted four weeks of exclusivity, extendable by a further four weeks, to complete confirmatory due diligence, secure debt financing and enter a Scheme Implementation Deed

Company page: OFX Group (OFX)

James Hardie flags Q1 beat as Siding & Trim sales top guidance

[9:02 am] James Hardie expects first-quarter results to exceed prior guidance on stronger-than-expected Siding & Trim sales, though management attributes the outperformance to execution rather than a US housing recovery.

• Net sales of US$1.45bn-US$1.48bn vs US$1.32bn ests (11% beat at midpoint) and up from prior guidance of US$1.32bn-US$1.35bn (10% above at midpoint)

• Adjusted EBITDA of US$399m-US$407m vs US$366.1m ests (10% beat at midpoint) and up from prior US$354m-US$375m (11% above at midpoint)

• Siding & Trim net sales of US$846m-US$860m, up from prior US$758m-US$781m, with segment EBITDA of US$282m-US$288m

• Deck, Rail & Accessories net sales of US$296m-US$305m, up modestly from prior US$291m-US$300m, though the segment posted a small GAAP operating loss

• GAAP net income guided to US$102m-US$104m

• CEO commentary: "Our first quarter results are expected to exceed our prior guidance, primarily as a result of better-than-expected sales in Siding & Trim. Siding & Trim net sales reflected strong sell-through and underlying demand for our products. Our performance in Deck, Rail & Accessories was driven by channel inventory normalization and sell-through that improved throughout the quarter.”

NYSE-listed James Hardie shares are up 4.1% after hours.

Company page: James Hardie (JHX)

Helloworld says Webjet ignored earlier $1 per share takeover approach

[9:00 am] Helloworld boss Andrew Burnes has escalated the dispute with Webjet, claiming its former chairman never responded to a $1 per share bid lobbed last September, the AFR reports.

• Undisclosed $1 per share approach made last September drew no response and was withdrawn, vs. a competing 80 cent bid from BGH Capital and Ariadne Investments at the time

• Helloworld later bid 90 cents per share, disclosed, with BGH and Ariadne countering at 91 cents, before Webjet terminated talks in February and shares crashed to 40 cents

• Helloworld holds a 20.1% stake and is pushing for two board seats, which Webjet has resisted given the pair are direct rivals

• Webjet cash balance has fallen to under $90m from $112m at demerger, and Burnes estimates it could be as low as $50m excluding cash held for bookings

• Webjet reported earnings of $18.2m for the 12 months to 31-Mar, up 8%, with net profit of $3.7m even as bookings slid 7%

Source: AFR

Macquarie flags satisfactory Q1 as commodities lifts but asset management slips

[8:59 am] Macquarie reported satisfactory first-quarter trading at its AGM, with commodities and markets substantially higher but asset management earnings down after a divestment.

• MAM net profit contribution down year-on-year, driven by the 2H26 divestment of the North American and European public investments business, with AUM of $748.0bn at June, up 4% on the quarter

• CGM net profit contribution substantially up year-on-year on stronger North American gas and power trading against subdued conditions in the prior period

• BFS net profit contribution up year-on-year on loan and deposit growth, with deposits of $223.3bn and the home loan book up 6% to $191.5bn, though margins fell on portfolio mix and competition

• Macquarie Capital contribution up year-on-year on higher investment-related and brokerage income, partially offset by lower advisory fees, with the private credit portfolio steady at $27.2bn

• CET1 ratio of 13.8% at June, up from 12.8% at March, with the harmonised ratio at 18.9%

Company page: Macquarie Group (MQG)

Wikramanayake to retire as Macquarie CEO in November

[8:58 am] Macquarie has announced that long-serving CEO Shemara Wikramanayake will retire in November, with Head of Banking and Financial Services Greg Ward named as her successor.

• Wikramanayake steps down from the Macquarie Group and Macquarie Bank boards effective 6-Nov after eight years as CEO and almost four decades with the firm

• Greg Ward appointed MD and CEO effective 7-Nov, subject to necessary approvals, having joined Macquarie in 1996 and served as Global CFO for 14 years before running BFS from 2013

• Ward led the repositioning of BFS into a significant competitor in Australian personal banking, business banking and wealth management

Company page: Macquarie Group (MQG)

Oil prices hit a seven-week high

[8:56 am] Brent climbed a further 4.2% overnight to US$95.49 a barrel, now up 34% since the 1 July low.

Brent price chart (Source: TradingView)

Oil jumps as US-Iran conflict escalates with Trump infrastructure threat

[8:43 am] Oil prices surged and tensions intensified as Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants, US forces struck Iran for an 11th straight night and Rubio said Tehran was not serious about a deal.

• Trump threatened via Truth Social to destroy one Iranian bridge or power plant, including targets in or near Tehran, each time Iran fires on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz

• Iran retaliated by threatening to strike regional infrastructure and energy facilities where the US has interests, and reiterated it wants transit through Hormuz coordinated with Tehran

• US Central Command struck Iranian military operations centres, drone storage and logistics infrastructure for an 11th consecutive night, while Houthis declared an embargo on ships loading at Saudi ports

• Rubio said Iran violated last month's memorandum of understanding within two weeks and does not have the right to control an international waterway, though Washington remains open to a deal

• US diesel back above US$5 a gallon at retail and refining margins at all-time highs, with US refiners producing a near-record 5.3m barrels a day this month amid a global supply crunch

Trump set to impose fresh tariffs by Friday as stopgap duties expire

[8:43 am] The Trump administration is preparing to apply new tariffs on dozens of trading partners before temporary 10% global duties lapse on Friday, ensuring no gap in the tariff regime.

• New levies of at least 10% target 60 trading partners on forced-labour grounds, with Canada, Mexico, the EU and Taiwan facing 10% and China, India and Japan facing 12.5%

• Duties would replace the stopgap 10% global tariff applied under Section 122 after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's earlier global tariffs, this time invoking Section 301

• Plan is not final and full reimposition may slip, as the proposal still requires a formal comment period and hearings before taking effect

• Separate escalations underway, with a vowed 50% tariff on many Canadian goods, a 25% tariff on many Brazilian products and a threatened 100% duty on generic drugs from August 2028

• A separate excess-capacity probe is not expected to produce tariffs by Friday, with that process still ongoing

Source: Bloomberg

China sticks with fiscal restraint despite deepening slowdown

[8:42 am] China's public spending fell the most since October in June even as growth undershoots, though officials signal looser policy is still coming.

• Broad expenditure tumbled 11.9% in June year-on-year against 1.8% revenue growth, cutting the first-half broad deficit 13% to 4.57tn yuan (US$675bn)

• Infrastructure spending under the general public budget fell almost 9% in the June quarter, while education, healthcare and social security outlays rose 4.9% under Beijing's "investment in people" push

• Land sale income slumped 31.5% in the first half as the property downturn continues to weigh on local government finances

• Stamp duty surged 40.9%, the most among major taxes, with equity-trading collections nearly doubling, while VAT rose 6% and corporate income tax gained 3.9%

• Stimulus still likely, with provinces holding nearly 1.9tn yuan in unused bond quota for the second half and 800bn yuan of policy financing tools set for aggressive third-quarter rollout

Source: Bloomberg

BOJ open to faster rate hikes as yen weakness fuels inflation risks

[8:41 am] Bank of Japan officials are willing to raise rates more quickly than the six-monthly pace economists expect, as a slumping yen adds to upside inflation risks.

• BOJ seen holding at its 31-Jul meeting after lifting the benchmark to 1% last month, the highest in 31 years, with most watchers tipping the next hike in December

• Officials open to moving earlier than the assumed six-month cadence with no preset course, as underlying inflation nears the 2% target set more than 13 years ago

• Yen firmed to 162.69 per dollar on Wednesday after sliding overnight to a four-decade low, prompting fresh government warnings on possible intervention

• 2-year JGB yield rose to its highest since 1995 and the 5-year to 1.995%, with markets pricing about a 72% chance of a hike by October

Source: Bloomberg

BofA traders say buy momentum stocks after selloff, eyeing 5% bounce

[8:40 am] Bank of America's trading desk is telling clients to buy US momentum names, arguing a sharp drawdown has created an attractive entry point ahead of a seasonally strong August.

• BofA momentum basket ended last week down more than 10% from its 25-Jun peak, on track for its second-worst July in a decade

• Historically a drop of that size has been followed by an average 5% gain over the next month, with August the best-performing month for the basket over the past decade

• Desk recommends buying the US High Momentum or US TMT High Momentum index via swaps or August call options

• Basket holdings include Sandisk, Micron, Danaher, Coinbase and AMD

• UBS trading desk also sees the slide nearing an end, flagging an opportunity to rebuild AI and semiconductor positions

Source: Bloomberg

US 30-year yield holds above 5% for longest run since 2007

[8:39 am] The US long bond has traded above 5% for 27 days this year on mounting fiscal concerns and a wave of AI-linked debt issuance competing for buyers.

• 30-year yield settled at 5.15%, having held above 5% for 27 days in 2026 including the last 12 in a row, the most since 2007

• Fed benchmark sits 150bps lower than in 2007, implying investors are demanding more compensation to hold long-dated Treasuries than at the onset of the subprime crisis

• US Treasury market has ballooned to US$31tn from US$4.5tn since 2007, with debt above 100% of GDP and annual interest costs topping US$1tn

• Over US$500bn of AI-linked financing is competing for the same long-end buyers, a key reason some managers now see 5%-plus yields as sticky rather than quickly bought

• 30-year real yield has risen around 50bps this year toward 3%, last seen in 2008, with dealers expecting Treasury to lift two to 30-year coupon auction sizes by May 2027

Source: Bloomberg

Tesla misses on earnings as margins compress despite revenue beat

[8:38 am] Tesla beat on revenue and deliveries but missed sharply on profitability, with auto margins ex-credits sliding as regulatory credits collapsed and no new guidance was provided.

• Revenue up 26% to US$28.24bn vs US$26.32bn ests (7% beat)

• Adjusted EPS down 18% to US$0.33 vs US$0.51 ests (35% miss)

• Auto margin ex-credits of 16.3% vs 18.1% ests, down 310bps year-on-year, with regulatory credits down 67% to US$146m

• Operating margin of 1.4% vs 5.4% ests, down 269bps, as operating income fell 57% to US$398m

• Deliveries up 25% to 480,126, with active FSD subscriptions up 56% to 1.48m and inventory cut to 15 days of supply from 27

• Free cash flow of -US$1.09bn, well ahead of the -US$3.25bn ests, aided by US$4.70bn operating cash flow

Tesla is currently trading 4.6% lower after hours.

Alphabet lifts FY26 capex guide to as much as US$205bn on stronger AI demand

[8:36 am] CEO Sundar Pichai flagged early-stage AI adoption across consumer and enterprise as Alphabet raised spending plans and warned of near-term Cloud margin pressure.

• FY26 capex guide raised to US$195bn-US$205bn, up from US$180bn-US$190bn, citing accelerated capacity deliveries to meet demand

• Supply constraints will see third-party capacity expanded in Q3 as a temporary bridge, creating modest near-term margin pressure

• Gemini 4 is being trained as a much larger base model, with Pichai saying the next generation needs more scale to compete at the frontier

• TPU system sales will see only a small portion of revenue recognised in 2026, with the majority in 2027

• On AI adoption: Pichai said it feels like "very early innings" of a secular shift across Google's core information businesses, adding enterprises are "barely scratching the early stages" of what is possible

Alphabet beats across the board as Cloud surges 82% and capex guide lifted

[8:35 am] Alphabet delivered a broad top and bottom-line beat, with Cloud growth clearing buy-side expectations and full-year capex guidance raised sharply.

• Revenue up 24% to US$119.80bn vs US$117.02bn ests (2% beat)

• Revenue ex-TAC up 27% to US$103.62bn vs US$101.07bn ests (3% beat)

• EPS ex disclosed equity-gain impact of ~US$2.85 vs US$2.90 ests (2% miss)

• Google Cloud revenue up 82% to US$24.77bn vs US$22.46bn ests (10% beat), operating margin 35.6% vs 30.8% ests and up from 20.7% a year ago

• Search & Other of US$63.27bn vs US$63.28bn ests (in line), up 17%, with YouTube Ads up 13% to US$11.06bn

• CapEx of US$44.92bn vs US$44.1bn ests, more than doubling year-on-year

Alphabet shares are currently down 2.9% after hours.

ServiceNow beats and raises FY26 guide as AI ACV tops US$1bn

[8:35 am] ServiceNow beat across every top line and profitability metric and lifted full-year subscription guidance, with AI annual contract value crossing US$1bn in the quarter.

• Total revenue up 24% to US$3.99bn vs US$3.92bn ests (2% beat)

• Subscription revenue up 24.5% to US$3.88bn, or 23% in constant currency

• Adjusted EPS of US$0.90 vs US$0.86 ests (5% beat)

• cRPO up 21% to US$13.20bn vs US$13.03bn ests (1% beat), with total RPO up 21% to US$29.0bn

• FY26 subscription guide raised to US$15.76bn-US$15.78bn, up 22.5%, alongside 31.5% operating margin and 35% free cash flow margin

• ServiceNow AI ACV crossed US$1bn in the quarter, with customers over US$5M ACV up 23% to 658

ServiceNow shares fell 6.4% overnight but trading 4.9% higher after hours.

US stocks slip as oil surge lifts yields and revives rate-hike bets

[8:35 am] Wall Street closed lower on Wednesday as an oil rally on escalating US-Iran tensions pushed bond yields higher and lifted the odds of a Fed rate hike.

• S&P 500 down 0.14% to 7,498.96, with the Nasdaq off 0.57% to 25,690.90 and the Dow flat at 52,218.58

• Brent up 4.2% to US$95.49 a barrel, now up 34% since 1-Jul, after the 11th straight round of US strikes on Iran, placing upward pressure on bond yields

• US 10-year yield up 11bps over the last three sessions and on the cusp of its highest since Jan-25

• Megacaps mostly lower, with SpaceX down 6.7%, Meta down 2.5% and Microsoft down 1.8%, though Nvidia rose 2.3%

• Rate-hike odds this month jumped to nearly 34% from 10% a week ago, with a 78% chance of at least a quarter-point hike priced for September

Good morning!

[8:21 am] ASX 200 futures are up 72 pts (+0.82%).

The overnight session in a nutshell:

• Major US benchmarks finished narrowly lower as Big Tech weakness and rising oil offset Energy gains ahead of the first Magnificent Seven results

• S&P 500 (-0.14%), Nasdaq (-0.57%), Dow (-0.01%), Russell 2000 (-0.92%)

• Alphabet and Tesla headlined Q2 earnings, with Alphabet beating on revenue and Google Cloud surging 82%, while Tesla topped revenue but missed on profit and margins

• Alphabet and Tesla shares both trading lower after hours, down 3.1% and 4.1% respectively

• Oil prices continue to run as the US carried out an 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, Brent is now trading at US$95 a barrel and up 34% since 1-Jul