ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 22nd October

Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, October 22. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEDT. Let us know how we can make it even better.

UK inflation jumps to 3.5%, cementing bets on a November rate hike

[8:25 am] Higher fuel prices pushed UK inflation above expectations in September, strengthening the case for the Bank of England’s first rate rise since 2023 a week before the government’s budget.

• CPI rose 3.5% y/y in September, up from 3.1% in August and above 3.4% ests, the highest in 11 months

• Core inflation rose to 2.8% from 2.6%, while services inflation lifted to 3.7% from 3.4%

• Transport prices rose 6.6% y/y, up from 4.6%, with diesel at its highest since July 2022

• Markets see a near-100% chance of a hike to 4% from 3.75% at the BoE’s 5 November meeting, according to AJ Bell

• The BoE expects inflation above 4% in early 2027, with household energy bills forecast to rise by up to 20%

• Public sector net debt passed £3trn for the first time, with September borrowing of £24.5bn above £23.9bn ests

Nasdaq rises 1% as SpaceX results revive the AI trade

[8:25 am] Strong tech earnings eased concerns that heavy AI spending will be slow to pay off, with Tesla and Meta results extending gains after the close.

• The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, the Nasdaq 100 added 1% and the Dow gained 0.7%, with a gauge of chipmakers up 2%

• SpaceX’s blockbuster result led the rally, easing weeks of anxiety over how long AI investment will take to deliver profits

• Tesla’s profit beat ests after the close, easing concerns about its spending on AI and other new areas

• Meta lifted its capital spending outlook and announced plans for a new class of nonvoting shares as it steps up its AI push

• Netflix reported its slowest sales growth in three years and forecast a fourth straight quarter of slowing growth

• The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1bp to 5.12%, while spot gold added 0.2% to $4,134.47 an ounce

Gulf oil exports hold up as Iranian attacks on ships double

[8:24 am] Middle Eastern producers are keeping crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz despite more frequent and damaging Iranian attacks on shipping, with oil holding near five-month highs after Tehran played down hopes of talks with the US.

• Brent rose 0.9% to $109.73 a barrel and WTI added 0.1% to $97.92, paring earlier gains of more than $2

• Gulf crude and condensate exports hit 24.6m barrels a day in the week to 18 October, according to Kpler, above the prewar level of at least 18.5m

• October exports remain below prewar levels at 16.7m barrels a day (Kpler) and 15.4m (Vortexa), with Vortexa putting last week at just 18m

• UK Maritime Trade Operations logged 32 attacks on ships around the Arabian peninsula in October to date, double the 16 in all of September

• At least five ships took engine-room hits in the first half of October, up from none in September, which can take tankers out of service for months

• Saudi Arabia lifted output by a third to more than 8m barrels a day in September, while the UAE pumped at a record high

Good morning!

[8:02 am] ASX 200 futures are down 1 pts (-0.01%). Here's what happened overnight:

• Major US benchmarks higher and finished near best levels, led by AI and chip stocks after SpaceX results topped estimates

  • S&P 500 (+0.58%), Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.36%)

  • Nasdaq (+1.05), Dow (+0.69%), Russell 2000 (+0.16%)

• Oil stayed near five-month highs as Iranian attacks on Gulf shipping intensified, though weekly Persian Gulf crude flows have recovered to around prewar levels

• UK inflation jumped to 3.5% in September, above estimates and the highest in almost a year, fuelling bets on a Bank of England hike