ASX 200 Live Today - Thursday, 16th April
The S&P/ASX 200 is set to slip despite a record setting session on Wall Street. Here are today's top stories.
Today’s ASX 200 Updates
Welcome to our live ASX coverage for Thursday, April 16. Expect a high volume of posts pre-market and more periodic updates throughout the day. We'll be wrapping the blog up around 2:00 pm AEST. Let us know how we can make it even better.
ASX 200 continues to give back early gains
[2:05 pm] In the last three sessions, the market has faded 0.56%, 0.41% and 0.83% from session highs. We're seeing persistent intraday weakness, largely off the back of banks giving back gains and in today's session, a pullback for resource-names (both Materials and Energy).
Tech is the main bright spot today, up 6.5% and continuing to push intraday highs. The Index is still down 10% since February, but today marks a strong three-day win streak where its gained just over 12%. Finding a bottom can be quite the process, so we'll have to see if the sector can mark a higher high and break above its recent volatile trading range.
Overall, markets remain volatile beneath the surface, with weakness from banks (likely due to Westpac's soft 1H26 trading update from earlier this week) the main driver at the index level.
Still, there are plenty of pockets of strength. Outside of the tech bounce, uranium stocks are climbing back to recent highs, lithium stocks are mooning and REITs are making a more off lows.
That's all for today. More US earnings to digest tonight, and let's see if the Nasdaq can make it a 12-day win streak.
Bison Resources doubles in ASX debut
[1:42 pm] The Nevada-focused gold and silver explorer made its ASX debut at 1:00 pm AEST, after raising $5.5 million at 20 cents per share to fund exploration across four contiguous projects in the Carlin Trend. The stock is currently trading at 43 cents.
Projects (Ruby Lake, Cherry Springs, Bald Peaks and Medicine Range) sit roughly 80 km southeast of Elko in the Carlin Trend, one of the world's premier gold and silver districts
Exploration upside underpinned by location between two established precious metals deposits: Maverick Silver Project (10 km south) and Medicine Springs (5 km north)
IPO proceeds will fund a multi-stage exploration programme including airborne geophysics, geological mapping, geochemical sampling and maiden drilling campaigns
Company page: Bison Resources (BSR)
Lithium stocks soar
[1:22 pm] Another strong day for lithium stocks, with the bellwether PLS Group up 3.2% to $5.57. If the stock closes at these levels, it'll mark a fresh all-time high, trading marginally above November 2022 peaks.
Chinese lithium carbonate futures currently up 2.6% to 173,380 yuan a tonne, which is still ~8.5% off January highs of 189,440 yuan.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
PMT | PMET Resources | 7.21% | $0.60 |
LTR | Liontown | 5.53% | $2.01 |
PLS | PLS Group | 3.25% | $5.57 |
IGO | IGO | 1.25% | $8.49 |
MIN | Mineral Resources | 1.09% | $58.96 |
VUL | Vulcan Energy Resources | -0.15% | $3.42 |
What's catching a bid today?
[1:20 pm] Lithium, tech and gold stocks are catching a bid today, reflecting a broad bounce in software stocks overnight and higher commodity prices.
The below table observes the S&P/ASX 200 stocks with the largest gain from the open price.
Ticker | Company | % Chg from open | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
LTR | Liontown | 6.63% | $2.01 |
360 | Life360 | 5.85% | $21.18 |
OBM | Ora Banda Mining | 5.82% | $1.46 |
EOS | Electro Optic Systems | 5.81% | $10.92 |
ZIP | Zip Co | 5.66% | $2.00 |
SRL | Sunrise Energy Metals | 5.17% | $12.61 |
ASK | Abacus Storage King | 4.17% | $1.38 |
GNE | Genesis Energy | 4.14% | $1.89 |
RMS | Ramelius Resources | 4.05% | $4.11 |
IGO | IGO | 3.79% | $8.48 |
Viva refinery fire extinguished
[1:15 pm] The major fire at Viva Energy's oil refinery in Geelong has been extinguished as of ~12 pm, according to the AFR.
Chief Executive Scott Wyatt and Energy Minister Chris Bowen says petrol production will be disrupted.
China Q1 GDP beats at 5%, but demand imbalance persists
[12:45 pm] China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, though the strength remains lopsided toward manufacturing and exports while consumption continues to lag.
GDP up 5% year-on-year in Q1, above 4.8% ests and accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 2025, marking the fastest pace in three quarters
Industrial output up 5.7% in March, above forecasts, though slowing from the Jan-Feb period.
Retail sales up just 1.7%, missing ests and weakening from 2.8% in the prior period
Urban unemployment unexpectedly rose to 5.4% in March, the highest in a year. Property investment slumped 11.2% and fixed-asset investment gained just 1.7%
The GDP deflator fell 0.1% in Q1, marking the 12th straight quarterly decline, though producer prices turned positive in March for the first time in three and a half years
The beat reduces urgency for stimulus given Beijing's lowered GDP target of 4.5-5%, with a rising number of economists now expecting no PBOC rate cuts this year as the oil shock lifts inflation expectations
Analysts' take on Nufarm
[12:42 pm] Nufarm's 1H26 trading update on Wednesday came in modestly ahead of expectations, with underlying EBITDA guidance of $239–244 million implying ~17% growth and a slight beat on consensus, driven by improved Crop Protection margins, stronger Hybrid Seeds performance, and a recovery in Omega-3 and bioenergy. The stock finished the session up 11.2% to the highest since November 2025.
UBS retained Neutral, lowered target from $4.50 to $2.80. Confirmed early-stage earnings recovery and early AgChem pricing improvement, but growth attributed more to cost-outs than volume; elevated debt and high interest costs remain key concerns pending further deleveraging.
Macquarie retained Neutral, lowered target from $2.77 to $2.70. Margin recovery and stronger-than-expected deleveraging were positives, with Omega-3 and fish oil prices as upside risks, but macro headwinds from weaker agricultural commodity prices and farmer economics temper the outlook.
RBC Capital Markets retained Sector Perform, raised target from $3.10 to $3.40. Strong operational performance and inventory management drove the H1 result, with positive trading momentum continuing into April and deleveraging tracking ahead of expectations alongside the broader $50, cost savings program.
Bell Potter retained Buy, target unchanged at $3.60. Positive across the board: Double-digit EBITDA growth, balance sheet ahead of expectations, and favourable demand conditions; rising active ingredient and Omega-3 prices seen as supportive for an accelerating 2H26 deleveraging trajectory.
ASX 200 back in negative territory, tech stocks rip higher
[12:40 pm] The ASX 200 has faded a 0.43% gain, now down 0.19%, reflecting broad weakness across key sectors like Materials (-0.83%), Energy (-0.79%) and Financials (-0.54%). On the flip side, Tech stocks continue to bounce strongly, with the S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index up 6.1% and trading around session highs.
UBS cuts CSL estimates, flags FY26 guidance unlikely to be met
[11:21 am] UBS suggests industry feedback points to US immunoglobulin pricing pressure and weak Chinese albumin demand, leading UBS to conclude CSL's FY26 guidance looks out of reach.
FY26-27e EPS cut by 3-5%, now sitting 2% below consensus. Revised forecasts imply roughly 2.5% reported NPATA growth in FY26
Sales now forecast to fall roughly 2% on a constant currency basis vs. guidance of 2-3% growth
US immunoglobulin facing aggressive hospital channel pricing that is more than offsetting typical early-year price increases. UBS views the oversupply as temporary, with subdued plasma collections expected to constrain supply growth over time
Chinese albumin recovery looks challenged, with persistent oversupply following a crackdown on "unnecessary" hospital usage. Weak Chinese demand may also be contributing to softer US hospital pricing as suppliers clear excess inventory
Price target maintained at $205, with UBS noting valuation support given the shares are trading well below target, though a sustained recovery likely requires improved supply-demand dynamics and clarity on a permanent CEO appointment
CSL shares have continued to dwindle, down 20.2% year-to-date and hovering recent lows.
Company page: CSL (CSL)
UBS lifts Virgin Australia estimates
[11:06 am] UBS has revised EPS estimates higher after Virgin's trading update revealed better-than-expected revenue, with the broker maintaining a Buy rating and seeing attractive valuation vs. Qantas.
FY26 EPS estimates revised up 7%, though net impact from fuel volatility since the February result is -2% FY26e, -9% FY27e, -4% FY28e
Virgin guided to 2H26 EBIT and EBIT margin above 2H25, with domestic RASK growth lifted to roughly 5% (from 3-4% prior) despite capacity growth trimmed to 1% (from 2%)
This update was announced on Wednesday, where Virgin shares finished the session 7.2% higher
2H26 fuel costs now expected $30-40m higher than previous expectations, but Virgin's hedging of the refining margin (93% crude, 15% refining margin in 1H27) makes it more resilient than Qantas in 2H26
Price target moves to $4.15 (from $4.10)
UBS sees VGN trading at a roughly 40% PE discount to QAN on FY28e (4.5x PE), despite a stronger EPS growth outlook and portfolio mix advantage, and views the oil price disruption as non-recurring with sufficient levers to manage through
Company page: Virgin Australia (VGN)
Morgan Stanley upbeat on Macquarie's commodity tailwinds
[11:01 am] Morgan Stanley sees favourable conditions for Macquarie's commodities business, with US gas price volatility and structural growth options supporting an upgrade to Overweight.
CGM (Commodities and Global Markets) contributed roughly 20% of group revenues in FY25, with EMEA making up 25-30% of total CGM revenues in recent years
Wider regional US gas price differentials are a key indicator of commodity revenue opportunities for Macquarie, with client demand and trading activity lifted by wholesale gas price volatility
LNG commitments of 1.1m tonnes per annum across two projects from 2028 represent $500-600m in annual revenues at long-term average pricing, but could double to over $1bn during periods of stress such as early April 2026
Morgan Stanley flags a structural growth option emerging from energy transition and AI-driven data centre demand in the US Mid-Atlantic region
Company page: Macquarie Group (MQG)
Macquarie's take on Viva Energy incident
[10:57 am] Macquarie says their 2026 Energy & Infrastructure forecast for Viva Energy ($506m or 43% of Group earnings) now carries downside risk after the overnight Geelong refinery fire.
No injuries reported, fire largely under control with root cause traced to a leak in the gasoline/petrol plant. Diesel and jet fuel production continues but likely at reduced rates
Earnings sensitivity: A 50% production reduction for 3 weeks would cost roughly $20m/$14m in lost EBITDA/NPAT (3% of CY26e NPAT), extending to $70m/$50m (10% of CY26e NPAT) over 3 months, excluding repair costs beyond insurance
VEA expects to offset supply disruption through its import programme supported by Vitol, though the incident escalates concerns around domestic fuel security
29Metals dives 33%
[10:25 am] 29Metals faced a very ugly gap down this morning, opening 29.7% lower and dipping as much as 37% in early trade. This follows a sharp production downgrade amid ongoing production issues.
Zinc guidance cut to 5-25Kt vs. prior 40-50Kt (55% cut at midpoint)
Gold guidance reduced to 6-14Koz vs. prior 12-20Koz (25% cut)
Silver guidance reduced to 400-600Koz vs. prior 600-800Koz (29% cut)
Copper production guidance is unchanged
The stock is now bouncing off session lows, currently down 28% to 27 cents.
29Metals daily price chart (Source: TradingView)
Wisetech and Life360 sharply higher
[10:23 am] Wisetech and Life360 have topped the tech leaderboards, though most names are up 4-5%. A few stocks are starting to turn positive for twelve month returns, including Life360, Data#3 and TechnologyOne.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price | 1 Yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
360 | Life360 | 9.76% | $20.80 | 8.05% |
WTC | Wisetech | 7.71% | $43.04 | -50.03% |
SDR | Siteminder | 7.61% | $3.33 | -15.82% |
PME | Pro Medicus | 6.48% | $146.32 | -30.32% |
XRO | Xero | 6.09% | $79.67 | -49.15% |
MP1 | Megaport | 5.68% | $8.00 | -21.41% |
NXL | Nuix | 5.68% | $1.21 | -49.37% |
AD8 | Audinate Group | 5.46% | $2.51 | -58.85% |
CAT | Catapult Sports. | 5.14% | $3.27 | -7.37% |
DGT | Digico Infrastructure Reit | 4.94% | $2.02 | -20.47% |
DTL | Data#3 | 4.87% | $7.32 | -0.54% |
HSN | Hansen Technologies | 4.57% | $4.81 | -6.96% |
NXT | NextDC | 4.52% | $14.00 | 23.52% |
TNE | Technology One | 4.37% | $30.07 | 6.78% |
PPS | Praemium | 3.60% | $0.72 | 7.46% |
BVS | Bravura Solutions | 3.50% | $2.07 | -4.17% |
OCL | Objective Corporation | 2.65% | $11.63 | -23.44% |
CDA | Codan | 2.48% | $34.25 | 128.79% |
IRE | Iress | 1.45% | $7.00 | -9.68% |
MAQ | Macquarie Technology Group | 1.21% | $68.50 | 14.05% |
DDR | Dicker Data | 1.05% | $9.13 | 9.94% |
ASX tech index hits a one-month high
[10:20 am] Another strong day for local tech stocks, with the S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index up 5.6% to the highest since 12 March.
The Index has now rallied 11.8% in the last three sessions. It's still down 19% year-to-date vs. the peak trough of -29% on 31 March.
S&P/ASX 200 Tech Index daily chart (Source: TradingView)
Top ASX 200 gainers
[10:03 am] Tech and growth names have topped today's leaderboard, broadly in-line with the Nasdaq's record setting overnight session and continued bounce in software stocks.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
360 | Life360 | 7.18% | $20.31 |
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management Group | 6.63% | $16.41 |
NWL | Netwealth Group | 5.88% | $25.22 |
XRO | Xero | 5.59% | $79.30 |
PME | Pro Medicus | 5.52% | $145.00 |
WTC | Wisetech Global | 5.18% | $42.03 |
AMP | AMP | 5.02% | $1.47 |
TNE | Technology One | 4.58% | $30.13 |
GNE | Genesis Energy | 4.44% | $1.88 |
ALD | Ampol | 4.35% | $34.57 |
Top ASX 200 losers
[10:03 am] Reece trading 5% lower as the market opened after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Sell (from Neutral), citing valuation and operational challenges. Gold stocks also broadly lower after bullion prices slipped 1.0% overnight to US$4,790/oz.
Ticker | Company | % Chg | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
REH | Reece | -5.59% | $13.09 |
RWC | Reliance Worldwide | -4.61% | $2.90 |
NEM | Newmont | -4.49% | $158.00 |
JHX | James Hardie | -3.90% | $28.11 |
WGX | Westgold Resources | -3.89% | $6.31 |
ASK | Abacus Storage King | -3.30% | $1.32 |
EVN | Evolution Mining | -2.77% | $14.05 |
PRU | Perseus Mining | -2.75% | $5.49 |
BGL | Bellevue Gold | -2.71% | $1.72 |
RMS | Ramelius Resources | -2.71% | $3.95 |
29Metals cuts zinc, gold and silver guidance
[9:43 am] Production issues at the Xantho Extended mine are forcing 29Metals to undertake additional development works, materially reducing zinc, gold and silver output for the full year. Not a good look for the small cap producer that's had its fair share of production downgrades, mine incidents and unexpected capital raisings in the past few years.
Zinc guidance cut to 5-25Kt vs. prior 40-50Kt (55% cut at midpoint)
Gold guidance reduced to 6-14Koz vs. prior 12-20Koz (25% cut)
Silver guidance reduced to 400-600Koz vs. prior 600-800Koz (29% cut)
Copper production guidance is unchanged
Additional works involve alternate level access development to reduce interactions with higher stress zones in the existing decline, with completion expected during the December quarter
Selling costs guidance was also lowered to $20-45m vs. prior $50-70m (39% reduction), partially reflecting the lower volumes flowing through
Company page: 29Metals (29M)
AMP's Q1 shows Platforms momentum and upgraded Bank GO deposit guidance
[9:41 am] AMP delivered a solid Q1 update with accelerating Platforms cashflow growth and a meaningful upgrade to AMP Bank GO deposit guidance, though market volatility weighed on total AUM. This may represent some encouraging news, given the stock tumbled 26.6% on the day of its full-year result on 12 February.
Platforms net cashflows of $1.1bn, up 45% year-on-year (1Q25: $740m), with average AUM of $88.83bn vs. $88.00bn in the prior quarter, driven by new adviser relationships built over the past two years
Superannuation and Investments net cash outflows improved 26% year-on-year to $80m (1Q25: $108m outflow), and sequentially improved from $226m outflows last quarter
AMP Bank GO deposit guidance upgraded to exceed $1.5bn for FY26 vs. prior guidance of $1.0bn
All other FY26 guidance unchanged
Total AUM of $155.9bn was impacted by recent investment market movements, with New Zealand Wealth Management AUM slipping to $11.51bn from $12.28bn last quarter amid market uncertainty
$150m on-market share buyback has commenced
Company page: AMP (AMP)
Genesis Minerals Q3: cash hits $600m despite production miss
[9:34 am] Genesis posted a solid March quarter with record cash generation, though production came in slightly below expectations as third-party ore purchases wound down.
Production of 67.5koz vs ests of 69.9koz (3% miss)
AISC of $2,685/oz vs ests of $2,700/oz (slight beat)
Revenue of $439.4m
NPAT of $145-155m
Tracking towards the midpoint of FY26 guidance of 260-290koz at AISC of $2,500-2,700/oz
Growth strategy upgraded to "Aspire 500" following the $639m Magnetic Resources acquisition, with group milling capacity potentially reaching 8-9Mtpa
Company page: Genesis Minerals (GMD)
By Stephanie Gardner
Orica managing WA ammonia supply disruption
[9:29 am] Orica has secured alternative supply sources to offset an ongoing outage at a third-party ammonia plant in Western Australia, with operations largely back on track on the East Coast.
Alternative ammonia and ammonium nitrate supply secured via existing inventory and Orica's global supply network
Kooragang Island ammonia plant in NSW restarted 1 April, with all East Coast plants now back in operation
The WA third-party plant outage is expected to persist until mid-May, with Orica committed to minimising customer impact in the interim
Company page: Orica (ORI)
By Stephanie Gardner
5E Advanced Materials enters trading halt pending announcement
[9:26 am] 5E Advanced Materials has requested a trading halt ahead of a market announcement, with securities suspended until at least Monday.
Halt in place until the earlier of market open on Monday 20 April or the release of the pending announcement
Company page: 5E Advanced Materials (5EA)
By Stephanie Gardner
Viva Energy trading halt as Geelong refinery fire impact assessed
[9:24 am] Viva Energy has entered a trading halt pending a formal market update on the financial and operational impact of a significant fire at its Geelong refinery.
Halt in place until the earlier of market open on Monday 20 April or release of the pending announcement
The fire has primarily affected motor fuel production, with jet fuel and diesel output curtailed as a precaution, per Energy Minister Chris Bowen
Company page: Viva Energy Group (VEA)
By Stephanie Gardner
Ansell CFO departs for US MedTech role
[9:21 am] Ansell's CFO Brian Montgomery has resigned to join Hologic as CFO, with Fred Marx to take on the role as acting CFO while a search is underway.
Montgomery joins Hologic, a US MedTech company recently acquired for ~$18bn, leaving Ansell after a period of strategic transformation
Fred Marx appointed Acting CFO in the interim, a seasoned internal candidate with 20+ years of experience and a prior stint as Acting CFO during the last transition
A search firm has been engaged to find a permanent replacement
Company page: Ansell (ANN)
By Stephanie Gardner
Netwealth delivers solid Q3, FUA hits $125.8bn
[9:17 am] Netwealth posted strong flow momentum in the March 2026 quarter despite a challenging market backdrop, with net flows more than offsetting market declines.
Total FUA of $125.8bn, up 20.9% on PCP, with $4.0bn in net flows offsetting $3.7bn in market-driven declines
Custodial inflows of $7.6bn, up 19.4% on PCP, supported by 41 new intermediary relationships during the quarter
Managed Account FUM up 30.4% on PCP to $27.9bn, with its share of total FUA rising 160bps over 12 months to 22.2%
Accounts up 13.4% on PCP to 176,675, with FUA per account up 6.5% to $712k
FY26 guidance intact: EBITDA margin of ~49% and FUA net flows broadly in line with FY25
Company page: Netwealth Group (NWL)
By Stephanie Gardner
Viva Energy's Geelong refinery fire threatens fuel supply
[9:04 am] A major overnight fire at Viva Energy's Corio refinery has disrupted operations at one of Australia's last two remaining refineries, compounding fuel supply pressures from the Iran war.
The fire believe to have started around 11pm local time, remains out of control as of this morning, with Fire Rescue Victoria confirming the incident is not yet contained
Jet fuel and diesel production is continuing at reduced levels as a precaution, per Energy Minister Chris Bowen, who confirmed there will be an impact on national fuel production and an investigation into the cause, the AFR reports
The Corio plant processes up to 120,000 barrels per day and supplies more than 50% of Victoria's fuel and ~10% of Australia's total fuel supply, making any extended outage a material national supply issue
Viva also operates 1,300 Shell petrol stations nationally, distributes ~25% of Australia's fuel, and is the sole domestic manufacturer of aviation fuel, amplifying the downstream risk across multiple fuel categories
JPMorgan initiates coverage on ASX healthcare stocks
[9:03 am] JPMorgan has initiated coverage for several household healthcare names, including:
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare initiated Overweight with $37.50 target
Pro Medicus initiated Overweight with $205.50 target
Ramsay Health Care initiated Overweight with $45.90 target
ResMed initiated Overweight with $37.60 target
Cochlear initiated Neutral with $187.90 target
Sonic Healthcare initiated Underweight with $18 target
Allbirds soars as sneaker firms pivots into AI
[9:01 am] Allbirds IPO'd in 2021 at a ~US$4 billion valuation, and over the next 4-5 years, lost 99.5% of its valuation. The sneaker company was days away from shutting down, but with a market cap of ~$22 million, announced plans to rebrand as NewBird AI and pivot to GPU-as-a-Service and AI cloud infrastructure.
The company announced plans to raise up to $50 million via convertible debt to purchase hardware, despite having no apparent background or expertise in computing infrastructure.
Allbirds shares finished the session 582% higher, rallying as much as 872% intraday.
In what part of the cycle are we where a retail company can randomly pivot into GPUs and rip ~500% on ~875x its daily trading volume?
China's Q1 growth expected to rebound, easing stimulus pressure
[8:55 am] China will release a long-list of fresh economic data this afternoon, with economists expecting GDP growth to accelerate, though the Iran war's full impact remains uncertain.
GDP expected up 4.8% year-on-year in Q1, accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 2025, which was the weakest reading since the post-Covid reopening in late 2022
Retail sales expected up just 2.4% in March, weakening from 2.8% in Jan-Feb, with domestic car sales contracting almost 8% as government subsidies phased out
Trump escalates Fed pressure, threatens to fire Powell
[8:53 am] Trump confirmed he has "wanted to fire" Powell but has held back, and will move to remove him from his governor role if he does not depart after Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair.
Powell's chair term expires 15 May, but he retains two years on his governor term and has declined to confirm whether he will leave the Fed entirely, complicating the transition.
Systematic re-leveraging and retail return fuel equity bounce as AI tailwind reasserts itself
[8:52 am] CTA buying, returning retail flows and renewed AI optimism is driving the V-shaped market recovery.
Goldman Sachs estimates CTAs net bought ~$19bn in US equities last week, the largest one-week purchase since August 2024, with a further $40bn+ of potential buying flagged for this week in a flat tape
Retail investors are re-engaging after recent criticism for sitting out the dip, with JPMorgan recording $1.29bn of net buying on Monday and $1.4bn on Tuesday, while a retail favourites basket gained over 6% in two sessions
Big bank commentary points to continued consumer and small business resilience
AI is reasserting itself as the dominant earnings growth driver, with AI-related stocks expected to contribute more than 60% of S&P 500 earnings growth in Q1
Trump signals Iran war "very close to over" as ceasefire and deal talks progress
[8:50 am] Markets are growing cautiously optimistic on a US-Iran diplomatic resolution, though key sticking points and an active naval blockade keep the situation rather fluid.
Trump declared the US has "beaten them militarily, totally" and believes Iran wants a deal badly, with fresh talks potentially resuming in Pakistan within days, though the White House has not formally confirmed a second negotiating round
The AP reported an "in principle" agreement to extend the two-week ceasefire beyond its 22 April expiry, though a senior US official told CNBC no formal extension has been agreed, highlighting the fragility of the diplomatic process
Iran's nuclear capability and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain the core sticking points, per NBC News, complicating a swift resolution
The US naval blockade is fully operational, with no vessels passing through the strait in the first 24 hours and six ships turned back
Analysts warn Iran faces meaningful oil production cuts within two weeks if the blockade holds, potentially removing ~1.8 million bpd of Iranian exports from global supply
Wall Street banks ride volatility to record trading quarters
[8:48 am] Morgan Stanley and Bank of America both posted record equity trading results in Q1, as geopolitical turmoil and market swings drove elevated client activity across desks.
Morgan Stanley
Equity trading revenue up 25% to $5.15bn, ahead of ests, lifting total trading revenue to $8.51bn
Investment banking fees up 36% to $2.12bn, with M&A advisory beating ests while equity and debt underwriting fell short
Wealth management pulled in $118.4bn in net new assets, above expectations
CEO Pick flagged private credit as in an "adolescent phase," noting returns will hinge on the economic cycle
Bank of America
Commodities trading revenue surged 60%, driven by extraordinary activity in oil and gold amid the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption
Equities trading up 30%, fuelled by increased client activity and capital deployment, with a record quarter for prime brokerage and Asia-Pacific equities
International business jumped 23%, now contributing 45% of overall sales and trading activity
Markets division posted its 16th consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth
Wall Street learning to live with the Iran war
[8:46 am] US equities have staged a sharp recovery despite the ongoing conflict, with investors shifting focus back to fundamentals and earnings season.
Institutional investors have driven the recovery after aggressive selling, with attention returning to company fundamentals which strategists describe as supportive
Stock correlations have risen to their highest level since May as macro risks dominate, but this is expected to cool as earnings season drives greater differentiation between winners and losers
Ed Yardeni compares the dynamic to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, arguing markets are adapting to the war and that the S&P 500 likely bottomed on 30 March
RBC's Lori Calvasina warns valuations have not fallen far enough to represent a clear buying opportunity, meaning stocks could revisit or exceed prior lows if the fundamental narrative deteriorates
Source: Bloomberg
Software stocks bounce as valuations hit multi-year lows
[8:45 am] Beaten-down software stocks are staging a sharp relief rally, drawing bottom-fishing investors as valuations reach historically cheap levels despite persistent AI disruption fears.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF surged over 11% across three sessions, its biggest such advance since March 2020, though it remains down 22% in 2026
The sector's forward P/E has compressed to ~21x, well below its 10-year average of 34x; Salesforce trades at 13x vs. a 10-year average of 45x, and Adobe below 10x vs. a 10-year average of 30x
Earnings estimates are nonetheless rising, with profit growth is now forecast at 16.5% for 2027, up from 15.7% at end of February, with revenue expectations also improving
Source: Bloomberg
S&P 500 and Nasdaq at all-time highs
[8:41 am] What an incredible V-shaped recovery, with the S&P 500 (+0.80%) and Nasdaq (+1.59%) both closing at fresh all-time highs overnight.
The S&P 500 experienced a 9.8% rally in the ten sessions between 30-Mar and 14-Apr. According to 3Fourteen Research, this is within the 99.7th percentile of all ten day returns – in other words, this almost never happens.
As for the Nasdaq, it's currently on an 11 day win streak and, historically speaking, similar streaks saw the Nasdaq finish higher one year later 100% of the time, with an average gain of 26.2%, according to The Market Stats.
Source: The Market Stats
Good morning!
[8:32 am] ASX 200 futures are up 34 pts (+0.37%) as of 8:30 am AEST.
The overnight session in a nutshell:
S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh all-time highs, Nasdaq now on a massive eleven day winning streak, the longest since November 2021
Tech boosted benchmarks but overall breadth was poor, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.04%) and Dow (-0.15%) underperforming amid weakness from Industrials, Materials, Utilities and more
Bank of America and Morgan Stanley join peers in posting record equity trading revenues
Trump says Iran war is "very close to over", ongoing discussions may require a ceasefire extension
